[Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January]

Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Okay, this has been discussed in pretty good depth in this thread, but for me, this is my biggest bet of the weekend. United to win -104 (note this was placed yesterday, and odds have drifted slightly to about -111 now). I would recommend playing all the way up to -125/-130, as I think fair price would be closer to -150 Honestly, United are in excellent form right now. Even with the Rooney injury, they are still a deep side, and getting a few players back will only help with their depth. United is 7 points clear of City, and while this may be a situation where SAF may want to rest a few players, as they played a pretty heavy schedule around New Year's, that thought would be quickly quashed, as they have had a few days off since their last match, and this is Liverpool, ffs. And even though Liverpool has not been a top 4 team the past few years, their is still a rich history between these two clubs, and if you can't get up for Liverpool, who can you get up for? United has dropped points in only one home game this year, vs Spurs. And Spurs is a very offensive team which capitalized on a number of United shortcomings on defense. Well, Liverpool is nowhere near as potent an offense, and United is getting healthier and more cohesive in the back. And after Spurs jumped out to a nice lead, United really dominated the rest of the game and Spurs held on for dear life. Since that time United just on a tear at OT. SAF has shown supreme confidence in Jonny Evans at CB, and has felt free to rotate Vidic and Rio, keeping them both rested and healthy. My only concern is that one of the central defenders will make a rash challenge on Suarez in the box and he'll flop - but that's nothing new and nothing you can really handicap as to whether it will be called or not. Now, Liverpool has definitely been playing a more offensive game of late, but to be honest, I can't see them putting much pressure on the attack in this one. The like to control possession and I think United will be perfectly content to let them knock it around a bit. But when it comes to attacking/pressure in the final third, I just don't see it. Suarez is a brilliant attacker, but they need to get it to him, and I'm not sure who can break down the United side. The return of Lucas has allowed Gerrard to drift further up, but he's still not near the threat he was in open play. On free kicks, set pieces, sure. United's offense is terrific, and Liverpool does defend well, but I think United is too much. They can attack in multiple ways. Valencia/Evra or Young/Rafael on the wings, or they do have the ability to put pressure in the middle with the likes of Kagawa, Anderson, Cleverly. Obviously the latter aren't the big names nor strike fear in opponents fans, but they have been really effective. And of course, United has the talisman in RvP, a pure striker, a killer out there. United 2-0 here. g'luck

[Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool > Sun 30th December]

Re: Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool > Sun 30th December If you are going to keep giving me nearly 3.5/1 to back the home side against a mediocre away team, I'll keep taking it. Playing QPR +360 to win Also playing o2.5 (-120) QPR sitting at bottom of table desperate for points asap. No reason for them to sit on their heels for this one. And I think nothing will spur home supporters more against a perceived big club. Remember QPR with a spirited effort vs Chelsea last year and this Liverpool team is really nothing special at all. QPR is by no means a strong home side, but 7 of their 10 points have come at home. Plus, I just hate Liverpool, so seeing them lose and winning money on it is a huge win/win in my opinion. Had a huge Saturday, no reason for me to stand pat.

[Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December]

Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December Okay, this will be a nice sized play for me here as I see a great opportunity in this game. Man City is coming off an 0-1 loss to a strong home Sunderland team. They've fallen 7 points behind their cross town rivals, and now have another challenging road game against a game Norwich side who have already scalped Arsenal and Man United at home 1-0 and just lost to Chelsea 1-0 at home. Norwich at home this year in 9 games has 17 points and allowed only 9 goals (only scoring 10 at home) Man City away this year in 9 games has 16 points and allowed only 7 goals (while scoring 12) This one has under written all over it, right? NOPE. Not in my eyes. This one is a strong play on the over, and here are my thoughts. City coming off a shut out needs to figure out a way to score, moreso, need to find a lineup that puts pressure/goals on the opposition. I think this is precisely the game that the get an attacking lineup out there. No more of the probing soccer, passing around, looking for the right shot. That is not working and Mancini needs to get this across to his team. They have too much talent out there, Silva, Aguero, Tevez/Dzeko, they need to play to goal, and not tinker around any more. They will have chances on set pieces and need to find the final touch to get the ball in the net. Norwich on the other hand is not a side to be trifled with, and they do not exactly park the bus out there, in particular at home. Sondgrass is perhaps the most underrated, unappreciated player in the entire league. He is a high quality player. And no matter if Holt starts, or Hoolahan, or even both, they have the talent to put pressure on a weakened City defense. It's impossible to predict goals in any league, the best you can do is predict chances, and I fully expect this to be a game full of chances. City must do their best to find a way to put teams away, they can't afford to be ******* about, keeping lesser opposition in the game, and allow them to steal points from them. Norwich doesn't necessarily need the points in this one, but I think they have to feel they can secure at least a draw, if not a win at home (as they have already proved that no one is above them at home). I do expect City to win, but I think either side can put up 2 goals here. City 3-1 victory in this one, and gives me my money.

[Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December]

Re: Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December Alright lads, I've had pretty decent success posting my picks on this forum and will have quite a few plays this weekend. Whether I have a chance to write them all up or not is a different story, but I'll try as I have 4-5 strong plays for the weekend in the premier league. My first, and largest play will be on this game. My favorite bets are always situational plays, as I believe you need not only look at the sides and forms of each side, but the situation that may dictate the game and how each side will perform. And this game lines up for what I feel should be a very strong play. Manchester United survived a strong Boxing Day scare against a very game Newcastle side, and not once, not twice, but thrice came from behind to pull out a late show Chicharito winner. And if that wasn't enough, they were bolstered with even more good news as ManCity lost to Sunderland, and United was able to pull 7 points clear at the top of the table. Now they have another home game and host a decent WBA side. However, United holds one of the most dominant home field advantages in all of Europe. And this year is really no different with 8 home victories already, and only losing to Spurs (a side they've beat at OT for years), and outscoring their opposition 26-13 in 9 home matches. In all honesty, they are an extremely confident team at home, and play with much more possession and always out chance their opponents at OT. I see absolutely no reason that this game will be any different. West Brom is having a fine season, but they are a poor away side, 3-4-2, while being outscored 12-16. That's the nuts and bolts of it, but let's get a bit deeper into it. United will be without Rooney, Rafael, probably Kagawa, but, they are getting healthier. Further, more than likely you'd expect a return to the lineup of Vidic, who will probably spell Rio, maybe Evans. I would also expect a bit of a change in midfield as last game featured Scholes and Giggs, and I would definitely expect one or both to be rested. Now, what does that mean? Well, first of all you will have a true CB and not need rely on Johny Evans, who I feel is a nice player, but certainly not a first team center back. And, you will get much more pace in your lineup if you can get Cleverly, or even Jones out there, to spell Scholes who's lack of speed was sorely shown against Newcastle. Newcastle is a battered team, dealing with significant injuries, however, they feature two high quality strikers in Cisse and Ba. WBA have a few nice attacking players, but I hardly think they will be able to put anywhere near the pressure on the counter that Newcastle can (and did). And when they do build the attack, I think they will fine the going very tough - only worry is perhaps on a set piece. So, what does this long winded post lead to? Well, I think we will see an extremely comfortable United home win, as they see this as an excellent opportunity to put even more space between themselves and City. I do not at all see a slip up, as they were severely tested in their last match, and a fired up SAF will have his team at full alert, and they most certainly will not allow 3 goals again. WBA will not be able to contend with the United attack, and I do expect home goals. With all this said, I am laying a -1.5 handicap, as I see the most probable result being a United 2+ goal victory. I think they will do their best to keep a clean sheet, and this is the most potent attack in the premier league. They do not have any CL games on deck to have them rest players, and see no reason for them to thrash WBA. 3-0 United victory, send it in, and message me your thanks later.

[Norwich City v Sunderland > Sun 2nd December]

Re: Norwich City v Sunderland > Sun 2nd December Under seems the quite obvious bet. I'm going to take a stab here on Sunderland (+.5) -115 In situations like these, I like to see who needs points the most, and Sunderland sitting just a point above the drop zone (albeit with two games in hand) could really use at least a draw here, a win would be even better. It's true Sunderland a bit banged up and missing a few defensive players but, they have some good attacking wings with Johnson and Sessegnon and Fletcher has a knack for getting the ball in the net. Both teams keep the game tight, and I'm sure this will not be pretty, but to me, public too heavy on Norwich today, and I liked Sunderland to finish in top 12 prior to season, so I think it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is and take the away team. For me, always heavy value in grabbing a half goal in a game expected to get less than 2 total. g'luck today

[Reading v Manchester United > Sat 1st December]

Re: Reading v Manchester United > Sat 1st December Not sure how you could put any of those goals on Lindegaard. He was a touch out of position on the Kanu goal, but it also deflected off the defenders back. The two headers were piss poor marking by United, and not to mention Roberts was a huge nuisance in the box. United are a nightmare on defense - but tbh, the fact they keep coming back after being down has me very optimistic about this team never being out. Vidic should be back soon, as well as Valencia and Kagawa. Transfer window coming up soon, I'd expect Nani gone, and the talk is they are sniffing around Ozil and Sneijder. We shall see. I'm disappointed as I pushed my bet today, and in all honesty, that is not deserved (RvP had a goal not allowed), but I'll keep backing United in most situations.

[Reading v Manchester United > Sat 1st December]

Re: Reading v Manchester United > Sat 1st December For me, this is a good situational bet, and I'll take United -1 (-140) today. With Chelsea, Arsenal and WBA already losing, and City drawing, here is a spot for them to put some points on everyone in the table and draw away a bit, which is crucial as coming down the stretch, you don't want every game to be a must win game. To me, simply put, Reading does not have the fire power/attack to stretch or threaten the weakened ManU defense. They do have speed, but I think United can clamp them down and make chances very hard to come by. SAF has put an added emphasis on defense and keeping balls out of their nets, and in all honesty, I trust Lindegaard back there a bit more than DeGea who always seems to fumble a ball or two and you never know when the next howler hits. United can and should score today, and I'll back the handicap where a win gets me my money back, but a convincing win gets me a profit. I think this should be a comfortable 2-0, 3-0 victory today.

[Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November I have yet to post a loser on this forum, albeit a very small sample size of 6 or so posts. So, this one will surely be a loser. Mark me down in the camp of taking a punt on Norwich +685 at my book (and I've backed it with a 1/4 stake at draw at +385). I'm going to call a shot and think this is a good spot for Norwich to get an away win, and book me a large win to boost up my account. Everton night and day without Felliani, no one to really control the midfield for them. No linkup from defense to offense and an added threat to score. Jelavic is a very dangerous striker, but they seemed to be able to handle RvP very well last week, and I see no reason for the same again this week. Norwich is very well organized in defense, and I think Everton will find it tough going to get chances. Now, of course to win, you do need to score, and goals have been hard to come by for Norwich - and should be again at Goodison. But, you have to like the heart and spirit that the Canaries play with, and if they get on the counter, they can cause a bit of trouble, and hopefully a goal or two. And at such fantastic odds here, I find them to be well too long. I could have held this one to myself and kept my record clean, but I have read a few winners on this forum and for that I will just document my play here and hopefully we can all be celebrating together come this afternoon (evening for most of you) g'luck

[Group E > Nov 20 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)]

Re: Group E > Nov 20 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) One big bet for me today. I thin the Juve/Chelsea match will be a good one. But in the end, the outcome is just too close to call. I favor the Italians for sure, but, the price is a bit short on them, and Chelsea has bit me before in matches I expect them to not do as well. Both teams have excellent midfields and it could be a very hard fought game for possession. I would also lean towards the under, however, in looking into it, both teams need a result tbh. And if you get an early one, the opposing side will be forced to try and attack to get back to level, which could lead to chances on the counter attack. It's a violent spiral, so I could just as easily seeing this one end 0-0 as I could see it end 2-2. So, this is the type of game I will pass and just enjoy to watch and root against Chelsea of course. The big bet is the one team that needs a win to have any hope of advancing. They are playing easily the weakest side, and even on the road, I expect Shaktar to thump their opponents handily today. Nords has a 1-11 goal differential, and even to the simplest of punters, you can tell they are overwhelmed in every respect. They have no chance of advancing, and sure a victory would be nice, but in the end, it will not make a bit of difference either way. Shaktar knows if they win this one, they really are in the drivers seat to advance, which would be a tremendous result for them. There is no way this is a let down game, they are already familiar with their opponent, and this is a spot for them to get the full three points, and should be an easy one, tbh. I played Shaktar heavy on the -1.5 (-129). Yes, the handicap can come up and bite you in the ass, surely. But this just all lines up to a strong play in my eyes. Sometimes it's better to bet against a weak side than to back a strong side (and you'll more than likely see me on Porto tomorrow for another big play when this one hits) g'luck

[West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea > Saturday 17th November]

Re: West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea > Saturday 17th November Absolutely great spot for the home side here, almost too good to be true here. I've played WBA to win at +300 and +0.5 (-110). I don't know why I don't bet this higher tbh Chelsea with a tough schedule ahead as previously mentioned. Moreso, their defense without Terry has been suspect at best. Their midfield is terrific when Hazars/Oscar/Mata and or Ramires are out there, but at least one or two will get a rest. WBA has a great workrate, and is tremendously underrated, as they probably lack the star power. But look at their home record, only one loss, a game vs ManCity which they lead late, and only an 80' and extra time goal gave them that loss. This is a hard away match for Chelsea. And WBA will definitely be up for the challenge. Already in 6th, watching Spurs lose will give them even added incentive to put some more points in their pockets. This is my play of the day, and as is my fourth post, my plays are 3-0 previous to this, this one is surely to lose. g'luck

[Wigan Athletic v West Bromwich Albion > Saturday 10th November]

Re: Wigan Athletic v West Bromwich Albion > Saturday 10th November

In general I find the EPL to be one of the best aorund for overs betting and BTTS and this games looks the biggest certainty of the week (except for proabbly Southampton/Swansea) to have goals in it.

Couldn't agree more, and this is my one play for today at o2.5 the EPL has trended more for overs of late, and this year it's exceptionally high. Just look around, United and Fulham are both 9-1 o2.5, Everton 7-3, southampton 8-2. Almost every team trends to overs. In this game, I think you get a great price as I expect there to be a ton of space, and opportunities abound. I especially enjoy betting overs in a game where I think both teams expect a result. WBA has had a fantastic start to the season, find themselves sitting in 5th on the table, and today see themselves at Wigan, 8 spots behind them, and fancy themselves a great shot to get three points. Wigan otoh finds themselves at home against a team that does allow goals, and I think they find their chances of scoring very good. They are coming off a win at White Hart Lane, so their confidence has to be high here. For me this is a great spot for overs, a confident home team that thinks they can win, and an up and coming away team, also thinking they can get the three points. To me, too difficult to pick the outright winner, but I do think both teams score, and one gets to two, so there you go. Conversely, I love betting unders when teams don't want to drop points...and there are a few of those opportunities today. Over 2.5 for me here.

[Group J > 8 November (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham)]

Re: Group J > 8 November (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham) While normally I'd agree that Spurs don't take Europa competition very strongly, there are few factors that make me back them today. First of all, AVB has to be a bit on the hot seat already. They were expected to be a CL power under Redknapp and went after a high profile coach. Well, this year has not gone very well, and save a win at Old Trafford, they are a middling club right now. 6th on the premier league table, and quite frankly can see them finishing closer to 8th this year than 4th the way they've been playing. They've been knocked out of CC play already, so as the competitions diminish, carrying forward even in Europa League is of quite importance to Spurs, and their manager. Further, the game is at WHL, and if you think they put out a poor performance in front of their home crowd, I'd think quite the opposite. Fans pay good money to support their club, and Spurs has a bit of chip on their shoulder for sure, against weaker competition. Looking over Spurs lineup, they've out out most of their regulars, exception being Carroll and Naughton. I've backing Spurs -1.5 (-116) in this one, as I do expect them to get a result. It's always tough laying the handicap, but I think this is a solid spot for them to put up a nice performance against a team they should beat handily. Only play for me on the late round of games.

[Manchester United v Arsenal > Saturday 3rd November]

Re: Manchester United v Arsenal > Saturday 3rd November Sorry, but Nani has dropped off significantly in skill the past year or two. I'm not sure if it's his confidence is shot, or he thinks he deserves a spot in the starting 11 every game, but he's just not an up and rising star any longer - and he's closer to rubbish then highly skilled these days. He played midweek in Cup game vs Chelsea the whole way - I'd be surprised if he started against Arsenal tomorrow. I think you'll be looking at Valencia and Young again, along with perhaps Cleverly and Scholes. I think you see almost identical lineup as the league game vs Chelsea, exception of maybe Scholes for Cleverly as I don't think Arsenal have the talented and speedy central midfield players the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Mata for Chelsea. So, Nani shouldn't be factor either way. All that being said, I think it's hard not to like the over in the game. United at home is fierce in the attack and see no reason for them not to score at least two themselves. I have no faith in the United back line to keep a clean sheet, but even if they did, United has the firepower to score three themselves. I am backing United -1 (+135), and o2.75 (-130) (I'm new here - first post so not sure the proper protocal for posting odds (I'm American, obv) and sites)