dylanphan
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Posts posted by dylanphan
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Re: Chelsea v Manchester United > Saturday April 18th Yeah, those are massive misses for United - particularly Blind and Carrick. Carrick has been vital in setting up the interplay, the ball moving seamlessly from defense to offense. Blind is also good in this role, or in bring up the ball up the wing, overlapping with a midfielder, offering strong support on the ball. Surmising from this, who will play cb with Smalling, Paddy McNair? And God forbid someone on the back gets injured - you are looking at fielding maybe Shaw who hasn't featured in months now, Valencia is a midfielder playing back (albeit with plenty of experience), Young will push back to cover for Mata who does not like covering all that much in his own end. To me, I had a hard time seeing goals in this game to begin with - I keep thinking of the last match at OT and how tentative United was, how they had no offensive creativity. How Chelsea was pretty firmly in control and content with a single goal and so on. Chelsea knows they have the title race well under wraps, and so long as they don't drop points, who's to catch them? Chelsea last game out was pretty tame. Without Costa in the lineup they just knock it around, try to frustrate their opponents, but they lack any superior threat up top, and save a Robert Green howler, they would have drawn 0-0 last week. I haven't seen Chelsea really been hungry for goals in weeks and weeks now. 1 or 2 per game, and none allowed, and thank you. As a United supporter I would hope for a win coming into this one, but now without Blind, Jones and Carrick that hope turns into a prayer. A draw seems a very likely result, as does under 2.5 goal for me. g'luck
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Re: Manchester United v Manchester City > Sunday April 12th This is too big a match to make any large positions for me, tbh, as beside it being a derby, both teams need points to stay top four. Top four at this point is really the goal, as the financial implications are paramount to continued success. I am a United supporter, so my thoughts below will certainly have a tinge of bias, but here is how I see it. I do not think United will want to lose points at home. They have a challenging run in with away matches to Chelsea and Everton to follow, as well as another game later vs. Arsenal who certainly still have title aspirations. By form alone, you have to think United have a great shot to win. 5 in a row in the league, 8-1-1 in their last 10, and the most home points gained in the premier league this year (albeit with Chelsea having a game in hand. In the past 10 matches, City have been a mid-table team both by results, and the way they have played. But City is still a dangerous club, a wounded animal you may say, especially coming off a disappointing loss at Palace - and let's not forget their loss at Burnley a few weeks back. Manager is on the hot seat for certain. So you think I'd be going balls out for a United win (and I will with my heart). But, I would be of the opinion LvG will stick with the lineup he has been playing - which have been very good indeed - and this may be an issue. First, Fellaini up top with Rooney in support will not have much effect against a stout City defense. The long balls Fellaini is used to winning with ease will be under pressure. And Rooney will find very tough going without another on the ball threat (like a Falcao or RvP). Also, this is the type of game that often finds Mata become a wilting daisy - exactly the reason Mourinho did not want to keep him and his vast skill around. He's not tough enough to win the ball, too small to fend off larger, stronger midfielders and his defense is suspect at best (and that is being kind). This is the match that is begging for AdM and his special talents to start and be a difference maker - but sadly, I do not believe he will be in the starting 11. Herrera has been a revelation and certainly deserves his spot, but I think he will find it tougher to create in this match. United will more than likely start Blind and/or Carrick to firm up their suspect back 4. People have been saying Smalling has been playing brilliantly, but I don't see it. He's a disaster with his feet on the ball, he's not pacey enough to keep up with smaller, quicker attackers. He's very good at winning balls, and clearing balls, but when you ask him to do too much, he's a liability and City's pressure will certainly be asking the questions in this match. I expect United to play with a good deal of confidence in front of their fans, but this is going to be a barn burner. I really do like the o2.5 in this match. Each team has difference makers on the ball and can bring someone off the bench. Each set piece can be a goal - City will likely be a big threat on corners - or if Toure/Silva have a crack of it. United have Rooney and if Mata or AdM is there, any free kick can end up in the back of the net. City will play with desperation - they had how many chances against Palace last match out. United will not be sitting back looking to defend, they've won a lot of late and think (hopefully know) this is a match they can win the three points. Each team knows all eyes in the country/league will be on this game, so I expect a show case match, not a tentative match, such as the one United played vs Chelsea earlier this season. I'll be on o1 goal 1h o2.5 goals for the game And Hoping, praying for a United 3-0 victory here as their continued ascent in the standings will lead to big things next year. fin :cheers:
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Re: Everton v West Bromwich Albion > Monday January 19th
If you read my entire post instead of just snipping one portion you may get a better idea of the thought I was trying to convey. I don't always just bet on home teams (as was evidenced with my large wager Saturday on ManU away). However, if I can get a home side at near evens, against what I consider a much lesser side, that to me dictates value. I think to dismiss home field, in particular with soccer, as a small advantage is a mistake. And while Everton have been disappointing thus far this year, they still have a better side than WBA. And I'm certainly not going to dismiss WBA form pre-Pulis. Sure, a managing change will have an effect on teams and their tactics, but the players still play and WBA has not done much in my eyes to improve upon their team from last year. Last year WBA finished 17th, a hair above relegation. Their aspirations are to stay up. Everton last year finished in 5th. Their aspirations are certainly higher. Everton does face some injury concerns, but not near as dire as some others may feel. This is why we bet, is it not? I think odds too short on home side in this match. I'm not an Everton supporter, I'm a fan of money.lol let's bet on all the home teams then -
Re: Everton v West Bromwich Albion > Monday January 19th To me this one looks simple, not sure there's much more to look into it. West Brom away form is dreadful. They've scored 6 goals in 10 away matches and have managed to secure just 9 points in those 10 away matches. Home field advantage in soccer (football) is one of the greatest advantages in all sport. You can't simply dismiss this as an 'other' factor. It's always a huge factor in matches and obviously should be priced in as such. Everton overall home forms is mediocre, but has been better of late. Everton does manage to score at home at a decent clip though. So to me it looks like a good home side that really needs to secure the full points against a team doing it's best not to lose. In that vein, I'll take the home side just about every time so long as I don't need to lay a heavy price. HW at -119 is better than fairly priced to me, I'd price it closer to -135/-140. This will just be a medium size bet for me, as goals may be tough to come by, but I'll play Everton here at -119. Further, I'll play small bets on exact score of 1-0 (+650) and 0-1 (+1250) as I think this could be a game where whomever scores wins. g'luck :cheers:
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Manchester United > Saturday January 17th Ok folks this is your bank this week. I played ManU -0.75 (-126) for a big bet today. Yeah yeah United's been struggling to score, United's been terrible on the road, I know, I know. But, United's been injured all season long. Now we see a United side at full health, save Ashley Young. RvP doesn't feature today, but I see that as a positive. VanPersie's been pretty poor all year long. Honestly, I hate the way he fits in right now. First, he cannot create for himself. He needs the ball fed to him in dangerous positions. And it's great to have a poacher like that, but when United is playing a diamond formation, there are 2-3 central defenders around the striker at all times. Second, he can't beat anyone 1v1. When he's constantly being marked, he lacks the pace to out run anyone. I like Van Persie, but he does not fit in with what van Gaal is trying to do, and he certainly does not play well with Falcao. Today we get to see Falcao in the attack without RvP and he offers a dynamic that United lack when van Persie is there. Further, Rooney should have plenty of freedom to roam up in the attack and he has interacted with Falcao quite nicely so far, even if they have lacked for goals. And to say they hardly created chances last week against Southampton is a bit harsh. Besides the fact Saints have one of if not the best defensive records in the premier league, United had a number of decent chances in the second half, and truth be told, Mata should have had a brace. Yes, United was not at there best last week, but QPR has no where near the quality that Southampton does. I think its fairly evident to everyone at United that changes need to be made and I simply have to trust that they are not blind to this fact. I feel quite comfortable when United start Carrick and Blind out there. They do a lot of hard work that will help cover the weakness in United's defense. Valencia has been terrific all year, and Rojo back should bolster the other side. Oh, and DiMaria is quite simply a difference maker, the most talented player on the field most every game he plays at full health. Harry gets sacked tomorrow or next month, it's going to happen either way. QPR is destinted to go down again this year, they don't have a strong enough side to stay up for the long run. They will yoyo the next few years as they have too much talent for the Championship and too little for EPL, they need to build with a few younger pieces rather than pay veterans to get that premier league pay day. United win today going away. 3-0 for me. g'luck :cheers:
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea > Thursday January 1st I too will more than likely be betting Chelsea here too. Spurs for me just don't do it. They don't have enough of a threat in the attack to break down a stout Chelsea defense. They have a few nice midfielders, noticeably Erickson of late, but again, none dynamic enough to take over a game, certainly not against again a superior Chelsea midfield. And their defense is decent enough, but will again need a huge effort from Lloris as they will be under constant attack. A few notes from what I've read above.... I'm not convinced that Schurlle will get another start here. He barely got a half against Southampton and was not very good at all. Mourinho flat out plays the guys he likes and thinks are better. Ramires, William and Oscar were all rested last game out. Further, I am sure Mourinho was not happy with the last effort and what he saw out there and will want more. As far as fatigue goes, the way Chelsea play I'm not all that concerned over a heavier workload of late. They dominate possession, are happy to kick it around and the only players that I would think may be effected as far as fitness goes would be Matic (who's a beast as it is) and maybe Hazard. Other guys out there are not running near as much and other than a possible nick here or there should be okay. And Chelsea bench certainly has options on it too. Drogba always hungry for starts and Remy no slouch. And lastly, you always have the nice security blanket in the back with the best back four (in my eyes) and then Courtois in goal. Will always be difficult for goals to come by for Spurs. Under looks like a good play too, but I prefer the away win in this one. g'luck :cheers:
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Re: Southampton v Arsenal > Thursday January 1st I played Southampton here for a medium size bet. Both teams are banged up/missing players, but been this way most of the year for Saints. I'm not sure Sanchez up front is enough for Arsenal. Southampton played very very well against a good Chelsea side last game out, and I expect a similar effort - hell why not? Gunners still don't have me convinced in the back, and without Giroud and Welbeck today, very limited options for Arsenal and Arteta is a key miss as he's the motor that gets this engine going. If Arsenal prove me wrong, more power to them, but at +170 here, worth a nice shot with the home side. g'luck and happy new years! :cheers:
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Re: Southampton v Manchester United > Monday December 8th
Agree with most of these thoughts.... However, I think you need to look at how United have been evolving throughout the course of the year. No Blind can easily be overcome by a returned Carrick. Jones hasn't been in the lineup, nor very good in the back in ages. Smalling's game has improved quite a bit however - excepting when he has his head up his arse like at City. Rojo is back and very good. I'm comfortable with Valencia at the back - Young however would be a bit of an issue. But, the midfield has really come around. With Carrick back you have a very solid link to get the ball forward. Fellaini's confidence has really grown with more playing time. Herrera back out there does a lot of the heavy running that Fellaini and Mata don't - and if DiMaria is out that is a big blow, but Mata has been very good in the attack for sure. RvP and a healthy Rooney will give a depleted Southampton midfield fits. to me, the biggest United deficiencies are the Young at full back and lack of central defense, but I don't think Southampton has the weapons to exploit this to be honest. Schneiderlin out is a bigger loss to the home side as United has depth abound. Southampton was plucked apart last offseason, so missing 2-3 first choice mid fielders will be a massive loss imo. I did play United here with draw protection at -0.25. United has been playing with much more confidence, and that ARsenal result, even if not well deserved, will be a huge boost. Chelsea losing, Arsenal losing this weekend, United has to see this as 3 points they really need to pickup if they want to make a CL place for next season. A draw wouldn't be the worst result in the world for them either, but I think they will see this as a very winnable game tonight. :cheers:I deffo think United can sneak a win Toto, but this is going to be an extremely tough game. Take the fluke win at Arsenal aside, where United were battered, the other three wins have been against mediocre opposition, beating a poor Palace side by 1 goal at Old Trafford, beating Stoke by a goal at Old Trafford and beating Hull at home too. Let's look at United away from home this season in the league: 1-1 Draw at Sunderland. 0-0 Draw at Burnley. 5-3 Loss at Leicester. 2-2 Draw at West Brom. 1-0 Loss at Man City. 2-1 Win at Arsenal which was a complete fluke. It is easy to forget too that although Southampton have lost their last two games, one was against the league champions who have been playing much better over the last couple of weeks and the other they was a late goal at the Emirates, in which they acquitted themselves a lot better there than United did, even though they lost. There is no Di Maria or Blind for United tonight and Falcao isn't anywhere near fit. Rafael and Jones still out so the defence is going to be tested. Tadic will deffo play tonight but the real worry for me is Young and Valencia are both likely to be the full backs, an accident waiting to happen. I just think everyone seems to be writing off Southampton just because they lost 2 games against two top sides, whereas United still have not convinced me, yes they won their last 4 games, but 3 of those were at home to nobodies and the other a complete fluke. Of course I hope United win, but I'm expecting a big performance from Southampton tonight who still have plenty of quality in midfield in Wanyama, Tadic, Mane and Davis etc, and in general this season have been rock solid at the back. Also disagree about Southampton being low scorers, only Chelsea better them at home for goals scored, they put 4 past Newcastle and 8 past Sunderland, and away from home netted 3 times at West Ham and Stoke. -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th I have a punt on o2.5 goals at -117. Odds just too low for me not to take a shot. Honestly, United have tons of options up top. LvG has United in attack mode almost all the time, probably to try to cover up their lack of defense. Last match out United played with Jones as their only CB. Of course they are going to give up goals playing without a center back in a top league, I don't care who you are playing against. United start almost every match with a -1 handicap as they are not going to keep a clean sheet. They have really not played against a team as in form as Chelsea in ages. IF Costa misses, Chelsea still have quite a few options in attack, and frankly with torres gone that's been addition by subtraction there. Hazard will give the United defense fits, and I can see him drawing at least a pk against, and plenty of great opportunities. United's attack is very very good. In particular on set pieces, they have many options. And Rafael has been playing tremendously when fit, bombing forward he is always a danger man and often over looked. In short, United's attack is very good. United's defense is awful. Chelsea's attack is very good and their defense is good as well. IF Chelsea think they can sit back behind the ball and defend all day long without conceding, I think they'll be proven wrong - thus the reason we bet. And, let's not overlook the fact that City lost yesterday. Quite honestly, if Chelsea win today, can anyone catch them? Game has 2-1, 3-1 written on it - I just can't decide if the away team will get more of the goals, so I'll bet for goals. :cheers:
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Re: Liverpool v Real Madrid > Wednesday October 22nd I'll echo mostly what's been said above, but yeah, Liverpool has definitely not been in top form for most of this year. They are obviously missing a few very critical players from last year's side. Coutinho and Sterling are dangerous, pacey players, but no way can they be counted on to form the attack. Liverpool will not be playing a very aggressive, high line here, I think they need to do their best to keep possession, and stay well situated defensively in their form so as not to allow Real to run right over them. Which is exactly what I expect them to do to be quite honest. Even without Bale, they'll be just fine. Jese and Isco were revelations for this squad last year and now have barely hit the pitch. Kroos and Modric have been fantastic, so even without Alonso, they've done quite well linking the ball from defense to the attack. They are deadly on the counter. Now, there are concerns of course. 1-Liverpool will play better at Anfield, I expect a hugely excited crowd there tonight in one of their biggest matches in years. 2-El Classico this weekend will certainly be on the forefront of every RM player 3-A number of defensive players unavailable could spell trouble if someone gets in card trouble, or a knock, or Marcello just runs out of steam. But all in all, I do smell a comfortable RM win here. Always a bit unsettling backing an away favorite in CL play, but RM is just the class here and in top form. Liverpool still have some work to do to get into their best form. BIG BET on Real Madrid -116 for me today :cheers:
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Re: AS Monaco v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday September 16th Leverkusen was playing some of the best soccer in all of Europe before the International break, and then had a poor match vs Bremen at home. They allowed breaks against them, their defense failed to hold form. All that being said, I firmly believe Leverkusen bounce back here and get the away win. They look always dangerous in the attack and I think they sure up their lines to prevent the breakaways against. Decent odds for away win here with who I feel is the better team.
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday September 13th In all honesty, I have a hard time seeing Arsenal winning here, although admittedly, I was also backing ManCity in the Community Shield game too. Arsenal is without Giroud and that is a big blow to them offensively. I do not think Sanchez will be able to create many chances against this City defense. I just find the City midfield and defense too big, too deep, too good to be broken down by Arsenal. I really don't see goals in this one either. City will be without Jovetic, and Aguero not at full strength. Arsenal back line is good enough - I think we see a lot of midfield play, both teams battling for possession and chances tough to come by. For this game I've played ht draw +120 1-0 Man City exact score 8/1 2-0 Man City exact score 11/1 I'll leave it to Arsenal to prove me wrong, but I dont think City will try to open this one up on the road. Should be a cracking match, and I do believe it will be hard fought. Both teams with big league aspirations - I just like the away side in this one. :cheers:
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Re: Manchester United v Queens Park Rangers > Sunday September 14th And just to add to the United lack of defense/injury woes, Jones torn hamstring out for a month and Smalling not fit.
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Re: Manchester United v Queens Park Rangers > Sunday September 14th Just a few early thoughts, as I haven't placed any bets and will more than likely pass this match, but.... I don't buy the whole Falcao will just replace one of Rooney or RvP. Yes, more than likely they will sit RvP (injuries) or Rooney (rest, heavy workload) to play Falcao, but it was just a few years back when United boasted the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez and Berbatov and yet seemed to find a way to start all four of them in certain fixtures. And United seemed to have pretty decent success with it. Great players can fit in with other great players, I firmly believe this to be true. Sure, there is ego involved and a player may not play in his 'preferred' slot but they should be able to make it work out. Truth be told, United has had issues with RvP playing up top with whomever else, be it Welbeck, Rooney, Chicharito. They are constantly running over each others runs and makes for sloppy interplay. United no longer have to worry about this with Welbeck and Chicharito out, and I do believe that VanGaal can make a lineup that will allow for him to get his best players on the pitch at the same time when need be. This, however is not a fixture that United should need everyone out there. I do expect it take a few weeks/months for all new players to get aligned and the best formation to be thrown together. As a United supporter, I am actually most interested in seeing Rojo out there, as he will add a dimension United has not really seen since Evra was at his best years back maybe. I expect this match to be sloppy again, and am not at all convinced at United's defense, but they certainly should be good to attack. I have a hard time seeing United keeping a clean sheet here - I do not think this will be a 4-0, 5-0 drubbing, but it certainly can be a comfortable win, maybe 3-1, or even 2-1 with loads of possession and chances. This is without a doubt a must win for Van Gaal, I don't buy the fact he is going to keep begging for more and more time for his system, considering they've lost against Swansea at OT and lost points against Burnley already. They need all 3 here, and should get it, I'm just not willing to lay such steep odds on an unproven team with possibly 3 first time starters.
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Re: Burnley v Manchester United > Saturday August 30th I feel I was unlucky last week as my big bet on the o2.5 vs Sunderland looked a sure thing level 1-1 at half. But, was unable to get a second. I said I would bet overs on United games until they proved me wrong, well that was last weekend. Here are my notes this week Rojo still yet to be presented with working papers, no way should he feature. DiMaria could play, but let's be honest here, he's had precious little playing time, was hurt in the World Cup, and has had what, maybe 1 or 2 training sessions with United? Herrera still ruled out with injury, and without long term starters Shaw and Carrick still. I honestly have no idea what happened to Smalling last weekend, they are saying he had a hamstring issue, but didn't look it to me. United have 10 injury issues this week, one more than last, and lost Nani (replaced by the aforementioned DiMaria). This is the definition of insanity, throwing out the same thing each week and expecting a different result. United defense still very, very suspect - although I'm not sure that Burnley has the talent to break it down that much. United has class with Rooney, Mata and RvP. But, I look at that defense, the midfield, the scheme LvG trying to throw out there and I just don't know if it can work as is. If you give United a healthy Carrick, Shaw, Herrera (lets face it those are three starters, not rotation guys), you get Valencia on one wing, DiMaria out there, let Mata stay forward as the attacking CM, with Rooney, and RvP - that has the start of a promising lineup. Carrick's presence can certainly sure up the defense and allow quicker transitions from defense to offense. Smalling no longer need bring the ball all the way up the pitch. Jones can make the occasional bombing run forward and have Smalling/Evans drift back with Carrick lending support - Shaw and Herrera should offer terrific work rates, this is something I'd long to see as a supporter. But, that's not here now. There are much better games to bet on this this weekend - but gun to head, Burnley to win or +0.5 looked the value earlier in the week - now not much value left as it's been bet down pretty heavily. Game very well could end 1-1 yet again. No Bet.
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Re: Sunderland v Manchester United > Sunday August 23rd Quick thoughts on United game here..... Odds are so short on United, it's almost a huge temptation to bet them. Having dropped points at home in the opening weekend, and getting RvP back in the mix, books are just begging you to take them at this point. But, they are still without quite a number of players, and now Herrera, Fellaini and Lingard ruled out, Nani is out of England, and already without Carrick, Shaw, few others can't think of right now off the top of my head. Valencia and Welbeck may be ready, but Rojo unavailable while he waits on his working papers. Truth be told, United are a desperate team at this point in time. I know it sounds silly to say that in August still, but you cannot lose opening weekend, at home, to a much inferior Swansea side, and then back it up with a road loss to Sunderland, a team that should finish in the bottom ten, if you have any aspirations of winning the league, NO LESS making it back into Europe. Teams above them are playing well and getting stronger. Now, all this would lead one to infer I'll be making a play on United to win, and I may still, but to me, until they prove me wrong, I am going to make my big bets on overs in United game, and this one just too tempting to pass up on a big bet at o2.5 -110. United can score by the bushellfull, make no mistake about it. I do think they created many decent scoring opportunities last week (As they have in all preseason matches) and no longer play for the hopeful cross, or the set piece. They have plenty of guys out there making terrific runs - Januzaj's presence last week was a huge turn around in attack too. Herrera out may simply be addition by subtraction there. If RvP features, that just adds another attacking option, and Mata/Rooney both been playing very very well so far, and I see no reason for more of the same. I cannot trust United's defense to keep a clean sheet any time out. Each back they throw out there has some good and some bad, but not enough brilliant. Smalling is very capable in defending in the air and is decent 1v1, but is poor with the ball at his feet or covering for another defender who is caught out of position. Jones is very good in getting forward, getting the ball from the back to a midfielder and is capable on set pieces, but ffs, this guy is terrible when you make runs at him, he is caught out of position time and time again and just cannot be trusted upon to be your primary cb without capable full backs out there to cover. Evans is mediocre at best, does everything ok, but nothing well. Blackett still too young and green to make a difference. And you saw exactly what happened out there when they needed to drop Young back at full back, he was simply terrible in defense and led to the Swans winner. Do I think LvG can get this straightened/figured out? Probably, but he will need more personnel. He obviously needs athletic guys like Rojo and Shaw (in-shape) to have his system work, but right now, he has neither. So, instead he will be trying to force a round peg into a square hole and it will not work all match long. Expect btts to score here, but I do expect United to come out on top when all is said in done, as they are in a dire way for points. OVER for this weeks big bet. :cheers:
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Re: Newcastle United v Manchester City > Saturday August 16th Yeah, I don't put too much stake into what players state, I mean, what are they supposed to say really? Darren Fletcher saying that "We're out to win the league" and "I don't think this club should ever fall into the trap of being satisfied with top four. That's not the Manchester United I know." All player talk.....but, Newcastle will be without Tiote, deJong, Stanton and Cisse.....Debuchy now at Arsenal, could see a real rag tag bunch sent out there. I expect City to get a very comfortable victory in this one. Backing away favorites is almost always a negative equity venture, but I can't see City not walking away with 3 points here. Will probably put them in a number of accumulators for the weekend matches.
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Re: West Ham v Tottenham Hotspur > Saturday August 16th This game could be the most entertaining of the weekend. West Ham always plays a more attacking style at home, and they seem to have had Spurs number of late. Tottenham playing a much higher defensive line, but they also have a number of players coming off of disappointing seasons who will certainly be keen to bounce back and play much better. I really wish this match was played a few weeks into the season to get a better feel for how it plays, but to me it looks like a wide open affair and I'll take a shot with the home side, maybe +0.5. Will be watching this one with an interested eye, probably means it will end up turning into a shit fest.
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Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Saturday August 16th While many point out that LvG plays a 3-5-2 system, the two outside wingers in midfield are more defensively minded players than attacking (for the most part). Ideally, I believe United would like to play a 3-5-2 something like: Jones - Evans -Smalling Shaw - Carrick - Valencia Mata - Herrera Rvp - Rooney But, right off the bat, Shaw and Carrick are out. Januzaj and RvP may not be match fit as they have not played since the World Cup. So, the formation may tilt a bit featuring Young and/or Cleverly maybe. Also, VanGaal gone on record stating that a number of players (Fellaini, Rafael, Nani, Chicharito) have no future at United, so I don't know how prominently they'll feature in early games. Now, all that being said, United's defense is terrible in this system. Smalling has probably played the best in the back, but he is terrible with the ball in his feet. Evans is adequate at best, but lets face it, on other top 5 sides he'd be a rotation player, getting spot starts. Phil Jones has some talent, but mostly in getting forward. He has no idea how to defend, absolutely clueless. In the preseason I've seen him out of position countless times, at least a few blunders per game leading to golden opportunities against. But........United have hardly allowed any goals against, truth be told. a pk to Liverpool, dodgy at best. Goal by Valencia was a deflected ball that just went straight to an unmarked Valencia player (basically was a bit of a gift). Against Roma they absolutely dominated with their first team - Roma goal was a 75 yard kick that went over gk (Amos?) head, and a late meaningless goal. And they only allowed 1 to RM. I don't know how they are doing it, but ffs it's working out well. Swansea are without key players, but they still feature speed (Dyer, Routledge, Britton is a quicker player too). Bony and Shelvey do have some goals in them. But they probably lack the key playmaker to make a sustained attack. And I do find their defense vulnerable. I expect a comfortable United victory for sure, but I like overs much better for the value. United has had plenty of opportunity for their starters to play together the past few months and have only added two players to their squad (and one will be out this weekend). I expect quite a bit of familiarity and strong play early on against weaker opponents. Against the stronger sides, their defensive liabilities and lack of true quality depth in the midfield will be exposed. But so long as the team has the likes of a healthy Rooney, Van Persie, Mata, Januzaj....United will always have goals in them. o2.5 for a medium size bet for me (currently at -135, would offer up to -150 or so before hesitating) :cheers: :)
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Re: West Ham v Manchester United > Saturday March 22nd To me this is a great opportunity for a big bet on over 2.5 goals. West Ham plays a much more aggressive style at home and goes for goals. But in doing so, they are always susceptible at the back too. To me, the RvP injury has no big bearing on this game. Last CL match not withstanding, he has been largely invisible, and struggling for touches on the pitch. Against Liverpool, in the first half, only Mignolet had few touches of the ball than RvP. With him missing, United will put a faster, younger forward, be it Welbeck or Chicharito, and they will do plenty of running giving Hammers defense fits. United get Mata back in the lineup to anchor the midfield, allowing Rooney (if he starts - as it has been a heavy stretch of play for him) to get more forward too. A big factor for United will be their wing play, as if they can stretch the field, and make those long, fast overlapping runs, I think they get plenty of opportunities. I would normally simply play United to win here, however, I do think West Ham can plenty with plenty of confidence at home and I do not trust at all United's shaky central defense. Carroll is fantastic in the air and can give them plenty of fits off set pieces/corners - as he scored one last week. United's central midfield will also struggle a bit in defense as Mata likes the 'ole' defense tactics. First fixture between these two was a 3-1 United victory at OT, however, last year, in both home games were 2-2, so obviously it looks to me like goals are in it. Price is more than fair at -115 to see it get to three and I've played it already. It will be a big bet after lineups are announced barring any unexpected surprises. g'luck :cheers:
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Re: Southampton v Norwich City > Saturday March 15th Well, I think this is a good opportunity for a convincing Southampton win and my biggest bet in the premier league is Southampton -1 (even). Southampton seems to play with quite a deal more confidence at home. They will be putting Norwich always on the back foot and Norwich will be hard pressed to keep this game tight and low scoring which they would love to do. To me, the quality is just not there with the away side, although they always do seem to make things difficult for their opponents. I expect Southampton to score a few here and if Norwich is forced to open up, that is a game they are not well suited to play. Bit bet on Southampton here, on the handicap. :cheers:
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sunday March 16th Early thoughts....... I'm not so sure this is going to be a wide open and free flowing game as you may expect. It seems to me that Liverpool gets tons of chances on the counter or against teams playing a much too high defensive line against them. They make brilliant runs and the interplay between Suarez and Sturridge is phenomenal. They can bring in pacey guys to also put pressure on defenses such as Coutinho and Sterling. Now, I'm certainly no soccer genius, but all this seems pretty obvious and certainly United is well aware of this. They will keep their defenders back a bit. They will probably even play Carrick as a holding mid and he will not get too forward. Hell, maybe even Fletcher as well. United will play much more defensively and conservative being that they are at home. They will rely on trying to control possession, knock the pace out of the game, and perhaps get a moment of brilliance out of RvP or Rooney, or Mata, etc.. If they open up this game, they will be outgunned, plain and simple. It's also true that they have an important CL match midweek, but I cannot see this playing into account in this game. You don't look past Liverpool at home, especially when your side is struggling for points in league. The first game this season was a 1-0 Liverpool win off a corner kick early. The last few games have been 1-0, 2-1, 1-2, 2-1 - and while a few have gotten to 3, a few were 0-0 at ht, and there was one game with a dodgy Shelvey red and late penalty so these games are not as open as they may seem. I am a United supporter for sure, and I do think that United can get a win here, but I think the stronger play is under 3. As lineups are announced, I don't think they'll be any surprises, and both teams will field strong sides so I can see odds drifting higher. I'll take a small stake at u2.5 closer to kick at +odds and I'll take a larger stake at u3 if I can get -130 or so or better. To me, this one shapes up as a 1-0, 1-1 type game, neither team will want to surrender points and United will be lathering to get all 3 here. :cheers:
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Re: West Bromwich Albion v Manchester United > Saturday March 8th I haven't decided how to play this match yet, but I cannot believe United if favored. I backed them heavily at home the other weekend but now they travel to West Brom and West Brom been fantastic at home. They drew Fulham in their last match, but pretty much statistically dominated them. They gave Chelsa and Liverpool both all they could handle and drew both of them. Their home record is kind of middling but they haven't lost in their last 5 United on the road are very competent. They have the 4th most points on the road in the league this year. Further, they score quite a bit more on the road than they do at home 25 v 18. Games like this I tend to favor the overs, in particular when I'm getting +odds. Reason being, middling teams tend to play with more confidence at home and are not as apt to bunker down and play in a shell. They may play tight, but they'll also play for a win in front of their home supporters. Top tier teams come in thinking that they can get full points on the road (and sure there is a strong argument to be made as to whether United is a top tier team at this point in time). They will press and I can see this being a much more open game. United will not feel the immense pressure to score a goal early in front of their home supporters so dire for a win. WBA would love nothing more to get a home scalp. Mata being back in the fold can only help the United attack. To me, this looks like a BTTS and an o2.5 bet.
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Re: Crystal Palace v Manchester United > Saturday February 22nd Okay Books giving us a gift here and I'm going to take it. There is a clear difference in class between these two sides and United only sitting at -159 to win? Do yourselves a favor and clear your heads, and set down a pen a paper and list each other starting 11 and tell me what would you make the odds of a United win? -250? -300? Hell, I'd almost set the handicap of -1 at -140 or so to be perfectly frank. Now a lot of posters above are writing about current form of the sides, and rightfully so! This is not to be ignored by any means. But, you need to look at all the factors when looking at small sample sizes such as this. Injuries, new arrivals, rotating squads and what have you. Palace been on a good home run of late, but lets face it, look at the teams they've faced. Hull is the highest ranked team in the table at 13th. Last time they faced a top 10 side at home, they were smashed 3-0 by Newcastle. New manager almost always has a positive effect on any side, and I am a TP fan, but again, almost invariably, this honeymoon period wanes and the true talent of the team surfaces. And CP nothing more than a side that will fight to remain above relegation all season long. United hasn't played in a week, and by all accounts should have just about a fully fit side. Now, they do have a CL match coming up midweek, but it's a team that they again should beat. For all their troubles this year, United have gained the 5th most points on the road this year in the premier league. This is not a bottom feeder side, this is a top side, struggling a bit to find their form with their new manager. They definitely have the talent there to smash lesser teams. Have they done so of late? Well, that's been an issue, but surely one they are well aware of and will work to correct. They've been without key players for most of these losses and have just gained a critical piece that can only help. I have United as a BIG bet this week. Their form has only scared me off playing them on the handicap as Pulis always has a well formed defense and plays for a low scoring game, but I just cannot see anything other than an away win. I've also added them to a number of accumulators, so I am quite a bit overweight on this play. Sometimes this can be a recipe for disaster, but if I'm going to go down, I don't want to back a middling side on a whim. I see a clear advantage here and thus will play it. Good luck with your plays today :cheers
The PL's new design - Feedback/Issues here please
in Announcements, Introduce Yourself & Feedback
Posted
I've been biting my tongue the past few months, but all in all, I'd have to say I'm quite disappointed in the changes that have been made to the forum overall. Mods, feel free to delete this post, but here is my point of view. It seems a decision has been made to make this forum more article oriented rather than a discussion board. Now, I get the reasons are more than likely economic/click oriented and I totally understand. However, this is a forum, a discussion board, and while I certainly enjoy reading a well written article, it has just about killed any discussion on any given match. This board used to be a fantastic resource for someone looking to discuss a particular match or to post some vital information that may have otherwise been overlooked. But now when I go into a game thread, I see links to articles, written by one person, with just one person's opinion, and very little has been offered outside of that. It seems to me that all discussion has been muted, which is a shame, because there are quite a few posters on here with very well thought out opinions - and even more posters with curious knowledge of some other teams that most of us are not quite familiar with. (apologies for the poor grammar, I am American) I have had quite a few issues with the forum itself (slow loads, passwords not being stored correctly between devices, and so on) that I could have probably overcome with a bit of effort on my end. However, the long and the short of it is, if I'm looking for a good thread about a particular game, a conversation, a discourse oftentimes between supporters (or punters) of either side, I used to come to this forum on a regular basis. Nowadays, I have sort different avenues. I receive 20-30+ tweets on a daily basis for punting articles. I don't mind reading articles, but I find it does not lead to a collaborative effort. These are just notes from the peanut gallery, as I did enjoy to make the occasional post here, but I was a very avid reader of the forum. Good luck to all going forward. Your efforts have been appreciated. :cheers: