dylanphan
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Posts posted by dylanphan
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Re: Hull City v Chelsea > Saturday January 11th In my eyes, I think a lot of people are underestimating the home side. Hull play with a lot of confidence at home and have had very good results. I believe they are 6th in the league in home points, and have already beaten Liverpool at home and had United on the ropes up 2-0 early in a game they very easily coulda won. Chelsea are fantastic at home, but just a middling side on the road. Hell, they lost at Stoke. To me, you really need to look at the two clubs and see their aspirations, what they are playing for. Hull, plain and simple need to stay up. And if they continue their home form, they should have no worries. Chelsea have higher aspirations and better not look past this Hull team. To me, Hull look a side that try to keep it tight and low scoring on the road, and go for it at home. To me, there is one play, clear and simple. I love over 2.5 goals. Chelsea can certainly score, and 4 of their last 5 games have gone over. And even though Hull is an under side, three of their last 4 home games have gone over and they seem to play it much tighter against mid-table/lower table teams are an over side very higher level teams. This makes sense, as they have nothing to lose against Arsenal, MAnchester clubs, Chelsea, Liverpool but when they play against Stoke/Crystal Palace/Fulham/Sunderlands, they need take as many points as possible. It would not surprise me at all to see Hull get a scalp here, but moreso, I expect goals, 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 game here. At +odds, I think this is a very good bet. Not a big bet, but a medium size bet for sure.
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Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday December 28th United need to tighten up on defense without a doubt, and one of the most effective ways to do so is control possession. This is a game where I think United should have no troubles in doing so. Their last game was a truly gritty effort, after being outplayed the first 10-15 minutes and finding themselves in severe trouble, they pegged back and were able to get full points at a very game Hull City. I fancy this one will be a more complete effort and I certainly expect United to win this one. Now, how confident am I is hard to say. Without RvP, United lack a consistent threat up top. Welbeck is just not elite, and I am hoping Hernandez gets the start. The Valencia/Rafael tandem was really giving United a big boost and was very difficult to defend, so with neither player available, we will need to hope that Nani/Evra get into play. I do think Giggs gets a start and perhaps Kagawa, both of whom will help maintain possession. While usually I would think United games are good for goals, I think they will make damn sure they defend better, control the play and boss Norwich City around. My money is big on United away win -0.75 at -125. I'll wait for lineups before adding to this, but I do think a 2-0 win is in the cards here. Norwich without a few very key players here, think they struggle to get a result. After this match, United with a tough three game stretch, Spurs, Swans, @ Chelsea - Really think they need three points in this one to get a bit of momentum going.
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Re: Cardiff City v Manchester United > Sunday November 24th
Agreed. I think people still have vivid images in their mind of the 3-2 victory over City at home, a game for the most part City controlled. If memory serves, Hart had a flub or two which resulted in goals, maybe one off a corner, but either way, I think people are overestimating the home side here. United with a few guys out, but tbh, they have plenty of guys to choose from and have had a few weeks to get healthier. Plenty of depth to choose from, if the likes of Anderson, Nani, Young, Cleverly, Hernandez can get rotated in. United has shot up the table in the past few weeks, with decent play as well as a bit of faltering from top tier teams, I think at only 5 points off the table lead, they can certainly smell blood in the water, and a few weeks of solid play through the new years will have them in great position to win the league. It's always a bit of a tricky match coming off the international break, as some players have traveled to play with their countries, but with a Sunday game and most games being finished by Tuesday (Mexico just finished this morning), that should not cause an issue at all. edit, Mexico game should have no bearing now that I think of it as Hernandez wasn't even with the team I believe.Hmm why are United 4/7 away to one of the worst teams in the Barclays Premier League? Cardiff are toothless upfront and defensively a shambles. I think United should run riot here given their recent form. I'd be very surprised if this was anything less than a convincing victory for Moyes boys. I'm all over the champions at that price. -
Re: Juventus v Real Madrid > Tuesday November 5th This is a real interesting game. Juve is real desperate for points in this one. And TBH, Real on the road have been shit so far, in particular domestically. They won last game 3-2, but were outpossessed and really outplayed. If not for the fact they simply have brilliant offensive players who are exceptionally quick on the counter and supremely gifted, they would have lost easily. There was a disallowed goal on a bad offside call, and there were two more shots that were very unlucky to not go in (posts/crossbars). Real played to score on the counter. I don't think pickings will be nearly as easy on the road against a team very happy to retain possession and try to break you down. Juve knows they don't want to play from behind against a team that can score goals by the bushell which certainly RM can. I like Juventus and the under in this one.
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Re: Real Sociedad v Manchester United > Tuesday November 5th Here are my thoughts prior to seeing final lineups To me, the game is United all the way, even without RvP. I also see goals if Hernandez is starting. Hernandez is desperate for more playing time, and when he does get starts, he just seems to score goals. He is extremely adept at hanging on the last man's shoulder and timing his runs. He can poach with the best of them and would expect him to be difficult to keep off the score sheet on this one. He wants to shine on the biggest stage, and here is his chance. I am a bit worried about Rooney's exceptionally heavy workload. I'm too lazy to look it up, but he seems to have played at least 85 minutes now in almost all of United's league games since returning form head gash. Add to that his minutes with the English national team and it will take a toll down the line if Moyes doesn't find time to sit him some. United getting 3 points here on the road should offer enough of a cushion to give him some rest further along, and with cup ties coming up, that should be some added time for him to rest. United if anything else has been scoring at a decent clip, but have failed to keep opposition from scoring too. Sociedad with nothing to lose really, sitting at the bottom of the standings, if they lose, they're just about eliminated. They should be bolstered with a bit of confidence from their weekend thumping of Osasuna too. If Fabio and Nani are starting, both are weaknesses on defense. I don't believe Rio and Vidic have paired together in a number of months now. DeGea has been called upon to make some tremendous stops. I would like to see if Fellaini and Carrick are both starting, as they sometimes seem to run over each other a bit out there, it would be nice if Fellaini is given a bit of latitude to go forward a bit. One thing also that would be nice is if RvP is on the bench, this allows Rooney to get more forward and Kagawa can sit back in the pocket a bit more where I believe he is most comfortable. Last game vs Fulham, Kagawa and Rooney were a bit on top of each other, and this isn't the first instance this has happened this year. I don't think Kagawa enjoys being out wide that much, where it is more logical for him to play if Rooney is stting back with RvP up top. Again, I would prefer to see final lineups before making my play, but to me, I see a 2-1, 3-1 United away win here. Real Sociedad is simply not on par with United talent wise, but this doesn't mean they can't get a result of course, as United seems to blunder in CL matches against lesser teams in recent years (Atletico Bilbao, Basel, just off the top of my head here).
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Re: Sunderland v Manchester United > Saturday October 5th Okay. I only post winners. Say what you want about my reasoning, but look back at my picks and I have a pretty good record. This game is my second largest wager of the weekend. ManUnited -155 to win. Plain and simple, this is a match featuring a giant and a small club. Sunderland is not very good. Those backing Sunderland will be hoping for a miracle. It's not going to come in. Sunderland has a few decent pieces, and I can see this team coming together in a bit, but, not tomorrow. Adam Johnson has fallen from any type of threat is a non-pressence any longer. Giacherini's work rate is still nice but he will not be much of a factor, and Altidore will not have much if any opportunity to press United's defense. Honestly, outside of a Seb Larsson set piece, I don't think Sunderland will have much opportunity if any to score. I don't like playing against Sunderland at home (for the most part), but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Sunderland grab a point. Truth be told, I had a hard time seeing WBA grabbing a point (or three ffs) last week, but I did not lay the heavy United home odds, and passed that game altogether. United is a bit of a mess right now, yes. But, they have a few things going for them. They are comfortable in CL play after the home win and away draw. Not a great performance @ Shatkar, but not the easiest place to play for sure. United is deep, and Moyes NEEDS this game. No two ways about it. United not scored from open play since their opener, and don't think they haven't factored this in. Goals need to be scored. And what better medicine than a banged up team that can let up goals. This could easily be setup as a trap game, but United 12th on the table right now? No fucking way this goes other than a United win. Put my reputation on that. United's last game they dominated the first half and had nothing to show for it. The longer a home game goes without a goal, the higher the pressure. Same could be said on the road, but United is scoring this game. Sure, this reads like a play with Red Devils glasses, but if United doesn't take the full 3 points here, heads are going to roll, and not mine, that's for sure. United wins here 2 - 0, 3 - 0. Don't mess around. G'luck
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea > Saturday September 28th Here we go..... Any game where you can make a convincing case for both sides has the makings for a good game. Spurs has a huge amount of talent on their team now. My concern for them is what is their best lineup. Chelsea's lineup is a bit more settled, but it befuddles me that Mata is not a part of this team in a more prominent part. He is the cog that makes the engine run smooth, but for some reason, Mourinho just doesn't have Mata in his master plan. My other problem with Chelsea is where are the goals coming from. Spurs defense is top notch - I'd rank them top 4 or so in the league. I have to believe Chelsea is going to have a very difficult time breaking them down. Chelsea's defense is good enough, back four + Cech is solid. Who from Spurs has the quality to get the ball into a dangerous position or feed Soldado? All signs lead to under, but that is obviously already priced into the line. And it's an early game. So how to play? I'm going to play a medium bet on under 2.5 at -128 and a small play on the draw at +232 This one to me looks like 0-0, 1-0, 1-1. Honestly 1-1 would suit me perfectly, I could easily see a set piece leading to a goal and perhaps a moment of brilliance.
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Re: Manchester United v Crystal Palace > Sat 14th September A few days before game time still, but here are my thoughts (and I am a United supporter) This game screams avoid to me. Moyes is giving me fits as a manager. I can appreciate that my knowledge of the fitness levels of the United players is no where near as intimate as they're coaching staff would be, but why in the world is Giggs playing so much and Kagawa is on the sidelines? Makes no sense to me. Further, United is a much more dynamic offensive team with Rooney available then with him out. Simple as that. I do like the Fellaini signing quite a bit. He will have a lot of freedom to drift forward as an attacking mid with Carrick more than capable of staying back in a more holding position. Fellaini can give opponents fits with his size, physicality, strength on the ball and in the air. But again, how does Kagawa fit into this scheme? He's best as a central player. United wing play is still strong, although I'm not a huge Nani fan, he is a dangerous attacker and Young has looked good so far this season. Valencia is good enough. But there is simply not a fluid enough bridge of yet from midfield/wings to basically RvP. Hernandez should be back and available and that will be a boost, but this United team is having growing pains with their manager which is ridiculous since they were mostly unchanged from last year. If nothing else, this team should not struggle to score as they have so far this year (not only in the league but in the preseason ffs) This game should be a coming out party, but I can see Palace sitting back big time, hell I would if I was their manager. United also have CL and City on deck, so any players with question may be on the bench (Fellaini, Nani, Jones - hell wouldn't surprise me if Vidic or Rio see the bench too). This game should play out one of two ways- United score early, and then it's a score fest, 3,4 - 0, or the longer it goes without a goal, the more pressure there is on United to breakthrough and the more confidence builds for the away side. I know Palace like to attack as does their coach, but I am not sure those tactics best serve in this one. I will take a shot at exact score, 2-0 United...but I am not very confident at all that this will be the walkover many think it will be. I'm surprised so many players put their bets in before lineups are announced. I may put in a small poke before lineups if I have a good feel for who may or may not be available, but Moyes keeps playing what I feel are less than optimal lineups for the talent United has. good luck with your bets this weekend.
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Re: Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur > Sun 1st September In my eyes, this is the most interesting game of the weekend, and just judging from the discussion above, it appears both sides are pretty confident in their teams chances of winning. The long and the short of it is, a fixture like this quite easily can decide who makes CL play next year and who is left out in the cold, and we all know CL = money for the club which = bigger players = more of a chance to stay competitive for a longer spell. I believe that if Spurs had made Champions League play last year, Bale would still be in the fold there (for at least just 2013/14, may have left after the year) and the extra money could have allowed them to bring in a Paulinho and a Soldado still. But, Spurs didn't, Bale hasn't played, and a ton of acquisitions have been made/are being made which has thrown this team into a bit of flux to begin the year. While they have created a number of chances/half chances, they have failed miserably in the league in scoring, with just 2 in 2 games, both from the spot. Quite simply, that is not good enough, even moreso when you take a look at the teams you went against so far. These are teams you should be thumping, 2, 3 to nil. Arsenal is the team everyone loves to pick on, other than gunner fans. Wenger doesn't make any moves in the off-season on a team that finished a middling 4th. They sell their best talent, Fabregas, RvP to bigger clubs and are reluctant to bring in any difference makers, rather plucking off second tier guys like Podolski and Giroud. They haven't won anything of significance in a long time, while still playing under the luster of a big team ranking with big money. But, they still have a solid club and a number of good, young players in the fold. When I'm putting my money out there, I'm looking for value, plain and simple. I can't win every bet I place, so instead I am looking for what should offer me a good return with a good chance of coming in. I am not as confident of a comfortable Arsenal home win as some others, and at just +108, I think that is much, much too short to be played. Even moreso now with the knocks they took in midweek game vs Fener. I do feel that Spurs at +270 is worth a small shot, but the lack of goals from open play, the lack of Bale's threat (both on the break and from set pieces), I just wouldn't back them other than small. But, I do believe that the over is drifting to a price where I would become interested. I know that I've mentioned Spurs have lacked for goals, but they have had opportunity. I don't think that Arsenal will pack it in as much Crystal Palace at home did, nor Swansea on the road. both sides would have been pleased with a point, Swansea barely broke out anyone over half way line. This game should be open, and hell, just look at past results, 3, 7, 7, 3, 6, 5 have been the number of goals scored in their latest league matches. In my eyes, both teams will score at least one, and if they score them in the first half, this one will get to over 3 goals comfortably. I will wait for lineups on this one, but o2.75 at -107 seems very, very tempting to me.
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Re: Liverpool v Manchester United > Sun 1st September I am in agreement with most of the sentiments above. Liverpool played a midweek cup tie at home, in what should have been a walk over. In fact, they put out a fairly strong lineup, and got up 2-0. After that a bit of disaster which had to have leave them reeling a bit. Three knocks, albeit not to key members of the starting 11, but lots of minutes also played by guys like Gerrard and Sturridge. Further, it had to be a bit of a hit to their confidence to lose a comfortable lead (again at home), allowing two second half goals to a lower league team. And of course, every one is well aware that the key player for Liverpool, Suarez, is still serving a suspension. United on the other hand have to feel quite comfortable. They played well against Chelsea, even if they didn't win the full 3 points, they too the play to the away size for most of the game, had nice control of possession and played well formed defense, hardly allowing an opportunity against. Their offense was a bit tough to crack a pretty solid Chelsea defense, but, Welbeck blew and opportunity or two and there was a bit of rust on the passes/interplay between Rooney and RvP which I expect to get sharper as the season progresses and Rooney is back to full health (provided of course he stays with the club). Now, to me, this game offers great value in nearly 2/1 for a United away win. United have a chance to gain 7 points in their first three games, with two tricky road fixtures against European quality caliber clubs and a home fixture against the side tipped to be favored to win the prem. After this game, there is a two week break and upon return, United have a bit of a softer game at home against Crystal Palace, before a trip to the Eastlands for the Manchester Derby. There is absolutely no reason for Moyes to sit any key players, and I would expect a very similar lineup to the one we saw against Chelsea, with perhaps Kagawa getting the nod over Cleverly if Moyes feels Rooney can play the full 90 again (I suspect Kagawa didn't start in the event that Rooney ran out of gas, as Kagawa would have been the choice to fill Rooney's role there - but he can certainly play a box to box holding midfielder quite capably allowing Rooney to range further into the attack also). I believe Liverpool's defense not near as good as Chelsea's back four, and although Mignolet has played brilliantly from what I've seen so far, he again will be under pressure and I expect United to break through. Liverpool does always play well at Anfield and seems to raise their level of play against the upper tier clubs, but again, I am getting 2/1 to back the away side, and a side I believe will be brimming with confidence knowing what a fantastic start this will be after three games if they can grab the win here. Make no mistake, this is a big early season game. I generally wait until game day or more is known about probable lineups, but as mentioned above, with the break coming, I have no reasons to expect any shock benches/starts for United, so I have already sent my play in. United +199 to win and with confidence I have placed that wager.
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Re: Bundesliga - 23rd - 27th August I'm in for over 2.75 goals in the Hamburger/Hertha Berlin game. Sometimes I just feel it's a good idea to keep it simple and if something looks likely, then bet on it. Hertha recently promoted, scored at a very good rate last year, and obviously kept their goal scoring boots this year getting 8 in their first two games. Hamburger's defense is not that great either, allowing 8 goals in two games, but I would expect them to be better in this one. In my eyes, I see both teams creating plenty of opportunities and both teams scoring at least 1 if not 2. I see this game getting to at least 3 goals, and honestly I think this game could be the highest scoring game in Germany this weekend. VanDeVaart been real good since coming over for Hamburger too....I think home side comes out firing and wins this 3-2.
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Re: Manchester United v Chelsea - Mon 26th August
Monster fixture for sure, and all eyes will be watching. United bashed Swansea good, a game where many were backing Swansea to get at least a result, if not the outright win. Never stood a chance. Swansea has looked good from what I've seen in the off season friendlies, as well as today's thrashing in Europa league. They've been scoring goals at will, and while they created some half opportunities vs United, the only goal they scored was gifted them really with Welbeck being unable to make a simple clearance. United's defense was pretty stout, and that was without Rafael who if nothing else is a more able 1v1 defender than Phil Jones. Chelsea was clearly well ahead of Hull City talent wise in the first half, but wtf happened in that second half? I can't fault Chelsea too much, as they were already up 2-0, but look at what City did vs Newcastle this week, and that's at least I would have expected playing against Hull with a lead. And Aston Villa were on par with Chelsea for much of that game. Huge step up for Chelsea this week. I'd expect United to have obvious trouble with the dynamic Chelsea midfield, and I expect to see Lukaku up top and he could create chances with his size, but honestly, United's defense I think should be able to contain them. I see it as a smaller speedier Chelsea midfield/wing against bigger, more physical United holding mids/defense. I honestly think Chelsea will have a hard time getting a result at OT, but I would really like to see who United has available and starts. Giggs almost certainly cannot start here, I would hope Kagawa and Rooney start and if they both do, I would make a big bet on United dnb. But, will need to wait for lineups. I also am of the opinion that there may not be 3 goals in this one. United is not going to want to get into an open, running style game, and I don't think Chelsea will be able to push forward as easily as they may like. 1-0, 1-1 type game here and I think RvP is once again the difference maker.Can't see United winning a match at Old Trafford? :) I had my reservations until I watched them batter Swansea, quite confident now. Chelsea were useless in the 2nd half against Hull, and Villa deserved a point at least last night -
Re: Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur - Sun 18th August As a square, I always prefer betting overs, as it's much more exciting rooting for goals than rooting for time. But this game is a very good spot for under. I've watched many Spurs games and they seem to lack for any explosiveness when Bale is not in the lineup. They still have a solid midfield, and can possess well enough, but without that moment of brilliance or that free kick, they start to have doubts of themselves and goals seem hard to come by. Further, Spurs have swung and miss quite a number of times on strikers. Adebayor, and Dempsey come immediately to mind in that they were brought in to get the crucial goals, but neither of them seemed to be able to do it on a consistent basis. Soldado may be slightly more refined then either, but this is his opening game in the EPL, and I believe he's never played a league game out of Spain, he may be a bit out of his element here. Palace very well may do their best to try to play 10 or 11 behind the ball and knick a late goal. They will be spurred on by their home crowd, and there is no reason to expect less than a solid effort. Gun to the head, I believe Spurs win it, but I think the best bet here is under 2.5 at + odds. And that's exactly what I played. I'll watch the game certainly, and if need be I may trade out at half time but to me this has 1-0, 1-1 written all over it.
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Re: Swansea City v Manchester United - Sat 17th August Wow, a whole lot of stuff in this thread that I disagree with and generally I am agreement with much which is posted. Now, I will preface this by saying I am a United supporter, but when it comes to my money, I bet with my head and not with my heart. United is a team in transition? I don't know how you can say that. Last year's team had one of the best records in premier league history, and who on the pitch is missing from the end of last year? Scholes? Who else. Wayne Rooney may not be starting in this fixture (and very well may not be on the team much longer) but as of this typing, he is still on the team, and may even be on the bench available to sub on. So, where exactly is the on field transition? Yes, their manager has changed, I'm well aware, but as Moyes has been a manager in the premier league for 10 years now, I'm fairly certain he is familiar with all of the teams, the referees, the stadiums, the rigors of the week in, week out training. His shortcomings may be exposed off the field, but I'm hardly concerned about field management, he throws out a lineup and then the team plays. So, what we have here is an opening week fixture @ Swansea. With a new manager in a high profile position. In what is a very challenging start to the new season, as United plays Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City all within the first 5 games. So, in short, this game is pretty massive for Man United to get off to a positive start. As was the community shield game last weekend, for Moyes, and United thoroughly dominated, albeit against a lesser Wigan side. Now, traveling to Wales is always a struggle, but it's not as if Swansea have been exactly world beaters at home. They won 6, lost 5 and drew 8 last year, with only a +2 gd, hardly a huge home field advantage. The year before they were markedly better, but I suspect a number of those scalps came against sides that took the home side too lightly or rested some regulars. This will hardly be the case for the first game of the season. There are pretty big expectations for Swansea coming into this year too. I'm sure CL play may not be expected, however they really opened up the wallets in bringing in Bony and Shelvey to their side this year, and still have Michu in the fold. So, a top 10 finish is expected again, and maybe even better. As far as intangibles go, I plainly think this game is more important for the reigning champs, as imagine the terror that will emanate through Manchester with a 1-4 start to this campaign? But, this will certainly not be an easy game. With the suspension of Rafael, United will be forced to start clunky Phil Jones at right back. Coupled with the likely center back pairing of Vidic and Rio, this is certainly not a fleet of foot United defense. And the midfield very well should have Carrick who was fantastic last year, but again lacks pace, and even Giggs, who is getting up there in age. All of this should add for a very nice advantage for Swansea who if nothing else does have a number of quicker (and smaller) players in the likes of Britton, Dyer and Bony and Michu are certainly capable of finishing up front. If nothing else, I believe Swansea should have ample opportunity to score in this one. But, it is not as if United will not be a threat going the other way. They have the best scorer in the premier league. And the Swansea defense is not what I would consider a shut down defense. With all of this considered, I believe there is one nice play and that is over 2.5 goals. Being that it's the first game of the year, I'll temper my expectations, but I feel btts is a nice bet, but the over is being undervalued in my opinion so o2.5 for a Regular size bet for me.
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Re: Antepost > Premier League 2013/14 > Winner To me, seems a bit crazy to tie up any significant amount of money on these futures right now. Transfer market barely even made a dent of yet, no idea definitively who's comings and goings. I do tend to believe that it will be hard for any team outside Chelsea, ManU or ManCity to win the league.....HOWEVER - each of these clubs is going into the year with a new manager. The only settled situation is with United, and they have a manager who has yet to win a thing. How is he going to handle such a big club is of significant concern. And relying on RvP to stay healthy for an entire season, well good luck with that. Too many questions in this point in time for me to lend any significant resources to capping who will win a year from now. City will make tons of purchases, some will work out, some will not. I'd be much more interested in knowing who is going to take over the reigns over there. Chelsea has a good, young nucleus of exciting players, but again, need a strong manager to butt heads with the old guard and new guard. I do think tying up these three and getting 11-15% is good, but why tie up any bankroll for a year to gain ~10% return, with outside chance of a stunning result. Fun to talk about I guess, but really makes no sense in throwing money on it, imo.
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Re: Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 27th April This games screams huge trap to me to Spurs backers. Plenty on the line for both sides for sure. And while a Cup win for Wigan would be a tremendous accomplishment for the club, staying in the premiership has got to be #1 priority for the team. Huge money to stay up. Now, of course Spurs have a ton to play for themselves, a ton of money that is, in that a top 4 finish and CL play next season is their #1 goal. Not to mention that in order to keep a player like Bale, and build around him, you need to be in the Champions League. All that being said, both teams really, really need full points here. Spurs have to be brimming with confidence after last week's massive comeback and second half vs City. But, that was at WHL. And while Wigan has not been particularly great at home this year, there is always a difference in quality of play when a team that needs to win is at home. I vividly recall a game last year that was a must win for Manchester United @ Wigan, and they were stomped by Wigan and thoroughly outplayed. And while a key contributor to that game is now playing at Chelsea (Moses), I still fancy Wigan to have a good chance to stay in this game, and at worst case earn a draw. I think the best play is o2.5 here. I expect both teams to come out attacking and wanting to get the first goal. If there is an early goal, that will only open up the attack, creating opportunities for both sides. Wigan concede 2 goals per game at home, and Spurs score nearly 2 goals per game on the road, so even to a dummy like me, this one seems like there will be goals in it. BIG bet for me on the over- biggest bet this weekend. good luck
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Re: Manchester United v Norwich City > Sat 2nd March Not seeing a 'rested' lineup tonight for United. Give me ManU on the -1.5 handicap for a small bet at positive odds. Revenge game for United. They've been terrific at home. I cannot see Norwich stealing points in this one. Sure, big game on tap midweek for United, but premier league title is theirs for the taking. 3-0 home win today.
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Re: Southampton v Queens Park Rangers > Sat 2nd March Just playing an angle here, but I am backing Southampton at home for the win. In my eyes, QPR has abandoned this season and their hearts will not nearly be into it as much as Southampton. Both teams direly need the points, but let's face it, QPR will be relegated this year, while the Saints fighting tooth and nail to stay up. QPR can't score, and I see most of their talent leaving after this dreadful season - they'll just have to fight their coach out the door to see who leaves first. Southampton has had decent form at home - I mean, huge win vs City and a draw vs Arsenal in the past month are terrific results. I just cannot see QPR coming in here and getting more than a draw - to me it seems Rangers play well against top clubs, and disinterested vs everyone else. Obviously I didn't get the best of prices, but was waiting to see about a few key Southampton players, and it seems they'll be playing, so I'll take my shot. Regular size bet on Southampton -139 to win.
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Re: Newcastle United v Southampton > Sun 24th February Okay lads, seems like no one wants to win some money in this game, but I do. I don't know why there hasn't been much chatter about this one, but just delve into this a bit and you're good friend Dylanphan will make you some money. Newcastle coming off a huge win vs Chelsea, they are still sitting just three points above the relegation zone. Plus, they just advanced in Europa league - this team is getting healthier, and should be brimming with confidence. Cisse has really relished his new role as sole striker without Ba around and playing much better. Midfield has been flying around and will only be bolsters with Ameobi, Tiote, Gauffron who didn't play in Europa league, and Ben Arfa just about ready to return to action. With all this in mind, no reason not to play Newcastle +126 to get the home win for a regulare size bet. But, big bet is going to be on o.2.5 in this one. Krul a big doubt for Newcastle. And I know I haven't mentioned a thing about Southampton, so here is what I will say. In 13 away matches, they have scored 18 goals and allowed a massive 30 goals. To me, this one should be wide open. Saints with plenty of players that like to get into the attack. I see goals and plenty of them. Big bet for me (second biggest of the weekend, and biggest in the prem). I see 3-1 Newcastle win here. Cheers.
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Re: Manchester City v Chelsea > Sun 24th February Massive game tomorrow, and only a handful of replies? Here are my thoughts, albeit not a big bet for me. Must win game for ManCity. 15 points adrift of United, home game, they need a win to keep pace, have a chance of winning the title. Already out of CL, Mancini and his high priced squad have to be a bit on the hot seat. Chelsea totally helter skelter side. Can look fantastic one week, and mediocre the next. Looked piss poor midweek vs Sparta, and only a late Hazard beauty pushed them through. So, how do we play this game and find any value? That's the 64,000$ question now isn't it. Well, here's my thinking. Too much pressure on City to sit back and relax, they will need to attack and go for the win. On the other side, as much as I dislike Chelsea, Mata, Hazard, Oscar, Ramires just can be beautiful to watch. I think we see goals in this one. No reason for either side really to play passively. City going for the title, Chelsea still not assured of CL play. I also think that Ba is an absolute beast for Chelsea, and when he can play, he's always the danger man. I think Chelsea are getting great away odds too, at over 3/1, they are certainly a live dog. So, I will play o2.75 -107 for a medium size bet. I will also play Chelsea at +315 to make a small size bet and +0.5 for a small size bet. 2-1, 2-2 game here. Cheers.
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Manchester United > Sat 23rd February For me this game boils down to a few key thoughts. First off, can QPR score? They have one goal in their past 5 home games, and average less than 1 per match over the year. They don't muster very much at all in the attack, and have relied on a single striker for a number of recent matches. Zamora is not near any form, Taarabt is a danger man in the midfield, but often has to try to beat 3-4 men to get a strike on goal. I just don't see any serious threats in the attack which would put United on the defensive. Secondly, van Persie came to United to win titles, and let's face it, United has a death hold on the premier league title right now. Getting full points over the next few matches along with a City slip up here or there, and this thing is put to bed before Easter. After last years collapse, no way Fergie let's points slip away without a fight. He knows this is a desperate QPR side, so there has to be some sort of fight in United's game so as not to get caught with their guard down. This should be the case here. Lastly, one angle I always like to think about is the reserves and their penchant to get goals (concede goals). If Rooney is out, this opens up all sorts of opportunities for the like of Welbeck and/or Hernandez. Welbeck has to be on a high after his goal vs RM in CL play. And Hernandez is a constant threat, always hanging on the shoulder of the last defender. QPR brought Samba in to toughen up the defense, but his strength is in the box/air, not necessarily his speed/quickness. United has a ton of quick reserves who should be able to make ample opportunities. And let's not forget the likes of Nani who must be chomping on the bit to see some game action. I do expect United to rest some players, but let's face it, their second team is quality enough to beat QPR. I played United -0.75 at -135 and didn't bother covering it on the draw line. If QPR wins, great win, but I find it highly unlikely. And I never like backing a team that is playing for a home draw tbh. QPR will be lucky to get to 1, while United should have ample opportunities. I see a 2-0 away win here. Cheers
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United > Sun 20th January Tough to not expect goals in this one, and I'm on the over as my big bet for the weekend. First game saw 5 goals scored, and I see no reason we can't get at least 3 again in this one. Rooney played midweek in FA cup and went the full 90, and with the extra day rest, I would expect him in this fixture again, as it is a big away game for them. Looking at Spurs, fact of the matter is they have a lot of speed. Lennon, Defoe, Bale all will give the United defense fits. Even in the back with Walker, they have guys that are too fast for any of the United defenders. This most certainly will lead to opportunities. United will need counter playing more pacey players out there, so look for Rafael, Evra, Valancia, Anderson, maybe even Nani again as Young is a doubt. SAF cannot afford playing too many slower players, although I would expect Carrick out there, as he has played plenty - and with Evans out, expect to see Rio/Vidic partnership in the middle. United dealt another blow this week with Fletcher ruled out for the rest of the year, so in my eyes, this one will be wide open, up and down the pitch, all match long. Spurs defense will not be able to keep United scoreless, and I just don't think the United defense matches up great with the pace of the Spurs team. I'm expecting a United victory, but I think goals will be a better bet in this one.
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 12th January (moved from Mon 14th J This one is tough in my eyes. At initial glance, you have to think Spurs would be a good chance to win away against a flailing QPR team. But, a few things stick in my mind. Obviously QPR manager is quite familiar with Spurs side. I don't ordinarily like backing away sides without positive odds. QPR coming off a high with a big win vs Chelsea. But first and foremost in my mind is QPR is a desperate side, desperate for points. New Year, new hopes. There is big money in premier league, and QPR has spent big money trying to stay up. Lots of pressure for them to get results, and easier to get results at home than on the road for sure. All that being said, I really like Spurs. They have a great attacking side. Bale was suspended vs Reading, will be available here. Adebayor will be available in last game before ACN. Lennon, Defoe, Dempsey - tons of options in the attack. QPR will be very hard pressed to defend. But, Spurs isn't the greatest on defense as it is. Walker likes to get caught upfield and is often out of position. Naughton/Caulker both young. VErts has been a rock back there, but no longer do you see the likes of Dawson, Ledley King, dependable center backs that would allow wingers to get up into play. I think all this will lend to a very open game for both sides, so for me, I see goals, plenty of them. Add to that over has hit in the last 10 Spurs away games......well, I'll take my shot with o2.5 -135. I also took a little bit of o1 for the first half - early game, hoping one of these teams tries to get off to a flying start. Win both bets to get me off to a nice morning. g'luck
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Re: Fulham v Wigan Athletic > Sat 12th January Do you ever see something that looks too good to be true and start second guessing yourself? On New Year's Day I saw a ManUnited team only at -130 @ Wigan. And thought to myself, why so short? Well, rather than start to over analyze and try to outthink myself, I just made a big play on United and reaped the rewards. In this game, I see a perenially strong home side in Fulham, at +105 against this same Wigan side. Further, I see Fulham getting healthier with their gk, Riise, Duff all coming back into the starting lineup, and I see the away side being weakened with their best offensive threat Kone off to ACN. Fulham isn't great shakes, but they throw out there a pretty decent side, in particular when Berba, Schwarzer, Hangeland and Ruiz are all out there. I just can't shake the feeling that this is too good to be true, but rather than talk myself out of it, I'll make this my second largest play of the weekend. g'luck
Serie A > February 3rd - 9th
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie A > February 3rd - 9th
Neilovan, I'm a big fan of your work, your writeups are solid and for the most part, I find your thinking sound. But, of late, I have found you making a lot more bets of this nature rather than full game bets. Now, please take no offense, but I do not like these bets one bit. You are making a big bet on a second half bet before the game begins. Why not rather wait and wager in-game? I watch almost all of Juve games, and agree that they are a stronger second half side. Reason being, they usually dominate possession so much in the first half, teams tire against them. However, it is very easy for them to take the foot off the gas pedal if they are ahead 1-0, 2-0 at ht. Further, what happens if they get a red in the first half or an injury to a key player? I've read a lot of punters on this forum and have quite a bit of respect for a few of them, but why are everyone making their biggest plays with only partial information available to them? Before lineups. Weather reports. Making second half plays without seeing the flow of play. I dunno. When I try to formulate my plays, I attempt to handicap the game with probable information. If I feel I have an edge, I'll play it, and when I have fuller information, I will add to my play (or not). Please don't take offense to this post. I wish you luck with your bet. I will more than likely be on Juve in some fashion this weekend too. :ok