Metaphor
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Posts posted by Metaphor
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(Badminton, Singapore Open)
Hans-Kristian Vittinghus to beat Kidambi Srikanth @3,40 with Unibet (4/10)
Lots of reasons I like to back Vittinghus here. First of all the guy is a warrior, one of most hard-working guys on the tour, so you never get it easy playing against him. Crowd also appreciate that kind of mentality, and he said himself after yesterdays match, beating world no. 11 Tsuneyama, that he got good support from the fans. Vittinghus is currently ranked 26 in the world but he is a former top 10 player. He had a rough year in 2018 but has bounced back with some impressive results this year, beating Lin Dan (Federer of badminton) in February for the first time in his career and also played two tight matches against current world champion and no 1 player Kento Momota.
Now Kidambi Srikanth is certainly a good player but this will be his 10th match in the last two weeks. Playing that many matches in a short period is just extremely physically demanding even for top athletes. The prize of winning what is likely be another physically exhausting match, will be world no 1 Momota in the next round, whom he has lost 8 times in a row. Kidambi also has Asian Championship to look forward in 1.5 weeks and right after that the Tokyo Olympics qualifying period will start. Players want to be healty and fresh for the upcoming tournaments because everyone wants to get to Tokyo. The points from Singapore Open will not count for Olympics, and this tournaments isn't as important and legendary as some others like All England Open anyway.
Vittinghus and Kidambi has faced each other five times in the past, the Indian leading 3-2. Last time they met was Denmark Open 2018 where Kidambi won 2-0 but that was during a very tough period for Vittinghus. There could be some extra motivation here to revenge that defeat on home soil.
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Do you mind if I post a badminton tip or is this reserved for tennis only?
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4 minutes ago, money44 said:
Grand Prix Hassan II
Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle
I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now.
I'm on Vesely aswell, and considering to back him to win the title here. He clearly enjoys playing this tournament, participating every year since 2014 - and actually made three semifinals (2015 Casablanca).
He beat Fognini 7-6, 6-4 but the score could have easily been 6-1, 6-1. He had breakpoints in the first, third and fifth service game of Fognini in the first set, and was serving for the match 5-1 in the second.
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30 minutes ago, Metaphor said:
Barletta Challenger 2R
Napolitano to beat Grigelis @1.44 with 888sport
Grigelis played two singles matches and one doubles in Davis Cup on Saturday, and lost badly 6-2, 6-0 to Ouahab. According to @opole Grigelis looked sick. He did beat Kolar here in the first round but took a medical timeout in the second set, and was not far away from losing the match in the third. Despite the H2H, I think Napolitano, who has had a decent season so far, will be the winner on home soil.
Napolitano wins by WO
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Barletta Challenger 2R
Napolitano to beat Grigelis @1.44 with 888sport
Grigelis played two singles matches and one doubles in Davis Cup on Saturday, and lost badly 6-2, 6-0 to Ouahab. According to @opole Grigelis looked sick. He did beat Kolar here in the first round but took a medical timeout in the second set, and was not far away from losing the match in the third. Despite the H2H, I think Napolitano, who has had a decent season so far, will be the winner on home soil.
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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@four-leaf I remember you hyped this Taiwanese youngster Wu Tung-Lin a month ago. I didn't catch him playing but saw the results and he did beat four current or ex- top100 players in Santiago. How big is his potential? He is playing in Taipei Challenger tomorrow against Jason Jung, and I'm considering to back him at odds around 2,25.
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At the start of the tournament my intuition was that Azarenka is going to win the title, so I have to back her in the final also. She should be super motivated to win her first title in 3 years, and Muguruza-Blanco hasn't been playing so great recently. I think she easily could have lost to Gasparayan in the second round. Azarenka on the other hand has looked better and better, handing out a bagel to the Queen of Monterrey Pavlyuchenkova and almost did the same to Kerber in the semis. She really deserves the title after her impressive run.
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1 hour ago, vvararu said:
Charlestone WTA final.
Wozniacki - Keys. Wozniacki at 1.76 (unibet)
Keys is a powerful player. However, she was broken so many times against Stephens... The big problem of Stephens was her first serve.
Well, that should not be the case for danish girl. She played so well against Sakkari (powerful player), against Martic (good rally player) that I think she will cause big troubles to Keys.
Being a very good returner and having a superb serve I hope she won’t give so many chances to Keys for her “from mid-range” killer shots.
Long story short, I think that Wozniacki will continue to play great today and will get her first 2019 title.
Keys being broken so many times in Stephens match was one reason I bet Puig to win yesterday (also thought Puig was looking most solid player of the field before semis). Afterwards I think that because Stephens and Keys are longtime friends and training partners, it will be easier to read / break the serve. On the final, well I thought winner of the Keys-Puig wins the tournament and after yesterdays performance, I'm even more convinced.
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What are your thoughts on Kerber-Azarenka? Is Azarenka playing good enough to win here or is it a match better to be avoided?
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How do you guys like Medvedevs chances against Federer? To win the title, Roger would have to get through Medvedev, Anderson, Shapovalov, and Isner/Bautista-Agut/Coric/FAA in a span of just four days. On top of that, this will be the 13th match in the last 30 days for the 37-year-old Swiss.
Medvedev has had a good season so far despite the early losses in Dubai and Indian Wells. I am tempted to give it a try at 3,65 (Pinnacle). Thoughts?
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Re: US Open 2014 CzechPunter, what do you think will happen in the men's final? I wasn't able to catch Djokovic-Nishikori, but saw the other semifinal and Cilic's performance was just outstanding. Federer didn't play bad, there simply wasn't much he could do yesterday. Cilic's confidence should be skyhigh - although the same can be said of Nishikori - as he overcame two rivals he had never recorded a single win against, en route to the final. Nishikori is a first class returner and should like his chances in baseline rallies, but if Cilic can serve as big as he has been serving throughout the tournament, and keep the points fairly short, I think he will win.
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Re: March 17 - March 23 To do that he would likely have to beat Djokovic, Murray and Federer back to back. Not seeing it happen.
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Re: February 17 - February 23 CzechPunter, do you like Burnett over Nara?
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Re: February 17 - February 23 Sorry to hear Torque but I guess there is only so much one can take. Ironically enough, as you end your run with the underdogs, I'm going to try my luck with one today. I can't recall when was the last time I backed a big underdog as I usually pick marginal favourites/dogs. Bellucci to beat Ferrer @ 6.50 Unibet - Now if this match took place anywhere else than in Brazil I wouldn't back Bellucci. Have you heard the crowd? I have hardly ever heard this loud support in a tennis match. Everytime their player wins a point the crowd goes absolutely crazy and completely silent when the opponent does so. They cheer to unforced errors made by the opponent (which is stupid imo) and boo if he questions a line call. At least this was the case in the two matches I caught, Bellucci-Monaco and Pereira-Mayr. Ferrer might have more fans here but the vast majority will surely be behind their countryman. - Bellucci actually won their last meeting dating back to April 2012 and did so in straight sets. Knowing he has beaten the guy on the other side of the net before should give him some confidence. - Many of you won't agree with this but I'll have it anyway: this will be Ferrer's sixth match in seven days - he might just feel a little tired. You know, he is turning 32 in one month and isn't getting any younger, he won't run like a rabbit till he is 40. This year he has lost to Lu and Brands, I wouldn't rank these guys ahead of Bellucci who is a much better player than his ranking indicates.
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Re: February 17 - February 23 Michael Llodra (-2.5 games) to beat Lukas Lacko @ 1.78 Unibet - Llodra is due for a win this year, he has actually played only two singles matches losing to Berrer in AO and Gicquel in Montpellier. In doubles he reached semifinals in Australia and won the Rotterdam Open with Mahut, so I'm not too concerned. - Lackos results so far this season are nothing to brag about and last week I watched him losing to Becker (guy he had 3-0 record against) 6-3, 6-2 in Memphis. His display was obnoxious and seemed not to even care in the second set. I'm more than happy to bet against guys who have this kind of attitude. -Llodra is a different beast in France. He always plays much better at home, just take a look who he has beaten there over the years: Djokovic, Del Potro, Berdych, Soderling to name a few. Moreover, in the past 5 years he has reached the final of this particular tournament three times, winning it in 2010. Last year he was knocked out by Del Potro 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 in R16.
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Re: February 10 - February 16 Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Igor Sijsling @ 2.03 Unibet Cilic 2-0, big time. I've watched all of his matches this tournament, he is just on another level right now. He didn't drop a set in Zagreb and hasn't done so here, only lost serve once vs Dodig and immediately broke back. He is flowing with confidence. If Murray couldn't break him, Sijsling won't either. Cilic is too strong on serve and solid enough on return and from the baseline for the Dutch. Yes, Sisjling has played convincingly this week but I woudn't emphasize those wins too much, Cilic is much tougher task at the moment than Youzhny, Berrer or Kohli. I think part of the reason Sijsling has looked so good is that he has been able to attack most of the time, which will not be the case against Cilic. The onehanded backhand of Sijsling will be vulnerable once he is forced on defence.
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Re: February 10 - February 16 Have been watching quite a few matches from ATP Memphis this week and boy you just gotta admire this Michael Russell. Guy is like what, 36 years old but still runs like a rabbit and fights like a lion. Such an inspiration, many of the younger generation players would have a lot to learn from him. Then you have guys like Lacko, Young or Vesely who, in this tournament at least, just totally gave up when either having lost a lead or being down a set. Russell on the other hand was down 3-6, 0-3 against Przysiezny but fought his way back to win the match. Today versus Hewitt he was a break up two times in the second set and served for the match at 5-4 - only to be broken. Then had a *6-4 on tiebreak but blew it. However, he didn't let the choke affect him, kept his cool and took the tiebreak 8-6. As CzechPunter put it, this guy plays his heart out everytime he steps on court. Now you may wonder, why did I bring this up. Well, I tend to bet game/set handicaps and one thing I always consider besides skill difference, surface, h2h etc. is mentality. Whilst I do back players like Fognini/Monfils at times, I stay away from the handicaps as these guys frequently throw the towel against the big names and are more than capable of losing a set 0-6 against lesser players in a match they end up winning 'comfortably'. Another name that comes to my mind is David Ferrer. It isn't often you see the Spaniard not giving everything he has got. It's easy to trust money on these kind of players, even if they lose because you would know they most likely made their best effort. Nothing quite as frustrating as some loser completely giving up and ruining your bet. So my point is, always take the players mentality into account when betting the handicaps. This might be old news for the veteran punters here, but some less experienced guys could use the information. And that's why we are here for - to share information, right? :)
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Re: February 10 - February 16 Hello Torque, I have noticed you focus on backing underdogs and although my approach to tennis betting is not the same I respect your style and would like to give some feedback. In my opinion, big upsets happen more often in WTA than in ATP. However, I can't remember you ever picking a heavy female underdog. Women are just so inconsistent and mentally weak, thats why I usually stay away from WTA, as I like backing favourites. Let's look at the ongoing Doha tournament for instance: -R1 Hsieh def. Pennetta (avg. odds 4.23) -R2 Lucic def. Pavlyuchenkova (4.81) -R2 Zakopalova def. Ivanovic (5.20) -R2 Cepelova def. Stosur (5.82) -R2 Wickmayer def. Wozniacki (4.13) -R2 Cetkovska def. Li (6.30) Of course this is too small of a sample but I believe your style would be more profitable on womens tennis. Correct me if I was wrong when I said you never bet WTA, maybe I just recalled incorrectly. Thanks for the tips and good luck!
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (+5.5 games) to beat Feliciano Lopez @ 2.00 10bet I see a tighter battle here than the odds suggest. These guys have met ten times and the h2h is set at 5-5 and only two of them have ended in straight sets. PHM won their only grass meeting in Queens back in 2007. Lopez, whose serve is red-hot at the moment, is 10-1 on grass this season and deserves to be the favourite. It will be very tough to break him, but I think the Frenchman can keep the sets close with his big serve. He fired 26 aces in the first match against Rikardas Berankis. I fancy him to cover the handicap.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013
Llodra 3-0 (7-6, 6-4, 6-3) :okHello everyone! With Wimbledon around the corner I'm going contribute to the forum after roughly a year of stalking. Back Michael Llodra to win the 1st set and win the match against Jarkko Nieminen @ 2.10 Ladbrokes I am going against my countryman here in the first round of Wimbledon. Grass isn't Nemo's best surface as he has a relatively weak serve and prefers more long baseline rallies. He reached quarterfinals here once - back in 2006 - but apart from that he hasn't enjoyed much success on the lawn. Secondly, Jarkko hates playing big servers and has really struggled against them in the past, at least on a fast surface. I checked out some of his h2hs against guys with big serves to get a picture: Kevin Anderson 4-0 Tomas Berdych 7-1 John Isner 4-0 Juan Martin Del Potro 5-1 Ernests Gulbis 5-0 You could argue all these abovementioned players are better than Llodra in every department but fact is Nieminen isn't in his comfort zone when playing against big hitters. Llodra has a good serve and loves to S&V - I think Nemo will have hard time breaking him. What is more, Nieminen caught a stomach bug last week right after the match against Lopez at Eastbourne. He had a high fever for two days and even spent one night at a hospital. Now he is feeling better but it has definately affected his preparation for the tournament. On top of that, he has also had some minor elbow problems during the clay season. Despite these health problems, I know Nieminen is a fighter and likely won't retire during the match. He might however grab a set or even two, but in the end I see Llodra coming out on top. -
Re: Wimbledon 2013 Hello everyone! With Wimbledon around the corner I'm going contribute to the forum after roughly a year of stalking. Back Michael Llodra to win the 1st set and win the match against Jarkko Nieminen @ 2.10 Ladbrokes I am going against my countryman here in the first round of Wimbledon. Grass isn't Nemo's best surface as he has a relatively weak serve and prefers more long baseline rallies. He reached quarterfinals here once - back in 2006 - but apart from that he hasn't enjoyed much success on the lawn. Secondly, Jarkko hates playing big servers and has really struggled against them in the past, at least on a fast surface. I checked out some of his h2hs against guys with big serves to get a picture: Kevin Anderson 4-0 Tomas Berdych 7-1 John Isner 4-0 Juan Martin Del Potro 5-1 Ernests Gulbis 5-0 You could argue all these abovementioned players are better than Llodra in every department but fact is Nieminen isn't in his comfort zone when playing against big hitters. Llodra has a good serve and loves to S&V - I think Nemo will have hard time breaking him. What is more, Nieminen caught a stomach bug last week right after the match against Lopez at Eastbourne. He had a high fever for two days and even spent one night at a hospital. Now he is feeling better but it has definately affected his preparation for the tournament. On top of that, he has also had some minor elbow problems during the clay season. Despite these health problems, I know Nieminen is a fighter and likely won't retire during the match. He might however grab a set or even two, but in the end I see Llodra coming out on top.
Tennis Tips - April 29 - May 5
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Aleksandar Vukic to beat Tommy Paul @ 3,75 with bet365
As @eros pointed out, Paul already secured the Roland Garros WC yesterday and has played tons of matches past three weeks so he should feel tired. Good spot to fade Paul here.