bairn1
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Posts posted by bairn1
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I'm not quite sure how to send you a PM, but if you let me know I'll do this.Excellent system! You ripping the bookies atm lets hope this continues! Any chance you can PM the formulas? Cheers mate:cheers -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Possibly a bit unlucky as both picks were on top in terms of shots on target, shots off target and corners, but two losing bets nonetheless...
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum 08/01/2011 Tranmere 3 - 3 Walsall 3.7 -10 +£232.70 09/01/2011 Santander 1 - 1 Sp Gijon 4.36 -10 +£222.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Two picks for the weekend... 08/01/2011 | Tranmere v Walsall | Away Win | 3.7 (Bet365) 09/01/2011 | Santander v Sp Gijon | Away Win | 4.36 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Had a bit of a break over the festive period, but will be back v soon with any selections that meet the criteria.This gonna carry on into the new year? Let's hope so :ok -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Looking at the up and coming fixtures in the French league tomorrow night and the English leagues on boxing day, and unfortunately nothing fits in with the system. However, it does mean we can end December and 2010 on a high note. Though not quite sure how Everton managed it... corners = 0 v 11, shots = 4 v 25!
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 18th Dec La Coruna 1 - 1 Sporting Gijon 4 -£10.00 +£197.70 Mon 20th Dec Manchester City 1 - 2 Everton 5.5 +£45.00 +£242.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
There is a lot of criteria that has to be met for the system, and I think one of these is the odds. I can't remember the exact cut-off point, but I think it's lower than 3.5 - it's just that most fixtures that match all of the other criteria tend to be at higher odds anyway.Bairn - Fair play to you on the system proving excellent. Just from looking at historic results do you only back away teams that match criteria which are above a certain price or do you consider all that match system regardless of price. For instance looks like cut off of cica 3.5 or am I reading something that's not true -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Fri 17th Dec | Brighton v Notts County | £10 at 5 (Coral or ToteSport) Sat 18th Dec | Bath City v Southport | £10 at 4.33 (Victor Chandler) Sat 18th Dec | La Coruna v Sporting Gijon | £10 at 4 (BetFred, Victor Chandler or Coral) Mon 20th Dec | Manchester City v Everton | £10 at 5.5 (SkyBet, BetFred or Victor Chandler)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
In the data I looked at (from 2007/08 onwards), the 13 match losing streak only occurred once. There were a few other losing streaks of 10+ matches, and a fair few losing months (so I guess I picked a good time to start documenting it on here!), but long term, the system has always shown a good profit, and betting to it in each of the last three seasons would've given you a healthy profit at the end of each season. Looks like there will be a few picks for the weekend - I'll post these later.Bairn ! Have you ever seen lost 13-match string twice ? :) And did you calculate the ability for a lost 13-match string to appear ? I hope that the lost 13-match string just appear once we win around 10 matches, it would be profitable :D -
Re: Corners. Where can we get some data ? This site is good too... http://www.football-data.co.uk/ It's got data for lots of leagues with all kinds of info for every single match. Again, nothing there's no half-time/full-time split, but if you load the data into Excel or a database package, you can get all kinds of stats from it.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Definitely on one of the best runs this system has ever experienced now! There is already enough in the bank to cover the worst losing run I came across in back-testing (13 matches).Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Tue 15th Dec Cheltenham 0 - 2 Southend 3.5 +£25.00 +£207.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I do go back quite a few games when calculating ratings, but these are weighted, so what happened in the more recent games has much more of an effect on ratings than what happened in games from several months ago. However, I do like your theory as to why this could improve things and think it is definitely worth looking into more. The processes for calculating ratings for every fixture from recent seasons do take a bit of time to put in place and to run, but I'll add this to the things I want to try out (on this systems and others). I might not get a chance to do this till the end of the season, but I'll post my findings here when I do.Bairn - Just wondering how many historical games you look at. For instance if you're looking back at say 25 games just wondering if you could improve your return if you looked at only say 8/12 games. The reason for this if a team isn't winning but playing well over 25 games they may well be a bigger problem at the heart of their ability to win. Just wondering if you've given any thought to this. I'm always interested in trying to improve things even if returns are fantastic -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Only one match for us to look at tonight, but it fits the system! Tues 14 Dec | Cheltenham v Southend | £10 at 3.5 (Stan James)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another good result to keep the winning run going!...
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 11th Dec Colchester 0 - 0 Yeovil 5.5 -£10.00 +£147.70 Sun 12th Dec Freiburg 3 - 0 Mgladbach 4.12 -£10.00 +£137.70 Sun 12th Dec Mallorca 0 - 1 Santander 5.5 +£45.00 +£182.70 -
Re: Stop the winning streak Hi there, I've done a bit of back-testing on this idea and think it has some potential. I looked at data over the past few seasons for all English leagues, plus the top leagues in a number of other European countries. I don't have the odds available for laying, but if you had always bet on teams who had won (at least) their last two games, you would have lost a lot of money, suggesting that laying them could be profitable. Seems to work better (i.e. you'd have lost more) by betting on home teams who have won their last two matches, than on away teams. I'm not sure if the losses are big enough to suggest a highly profitably system, but you could possibly look at filtering down the fixtures more? e.g. where the odds are in a particular band? or maybe where the most recent win was by a single goal and/or against poor opposition?
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Three matches from the coming weekend fit the bill... Sat 11th Dec | Colchester v Yeovil | £10 at 5.5 (Bet 365) Sun 12th Dec | Freiburg v Mgladbach | £10 at 4.12 (Pinnacle) Sun 12th Dec | Mallorca v Santander | £10 at 5.5 (Coral)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins There were a couple of matches that fit in with the system at the weekend, but both have been postponed.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Here's a full breakdown of November's results...
Total staked = £180 Profit/loss = +£157.70 It's too early for the ROI to be of any significance, but at the moment it's 87.22%! We won't acheive anything like this long term and instead will be looking for around 30%, but long may this good run continue!Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 6th Nov Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds 3.25 +£22.50 +£22.50 Tue 9th Nov Kettering 0 - 2 Mansfield 3.19 +£21.90 +£44.40 Sat 14th Nov Chesterfield 1 - 2 Burton 5 +£40.00 +£84.40 Sat 14th Nov Torquay 1 - 1 Barnet 6.08 -£10.00 +£74.40 Sat 14th Nov Kettering 2 - 2 Cambridge 3.1 -£10.00 +£64.40 Sat 20th Nov Man Utd 2 - 0 Wigan 16.4 -£10.00 +£54.40 Sat 20th Nov Cardiff 0 - 2 Nottm Forest 4.5 +£35.00 +£89.40 Sat 20th Nov Charlton 3 - 2 Yeovil 6.5 -£10.00 +£79.40 Sat 20th Nov Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Southend 4.33 -£10.00 +£69.40 Sat 20th Nov Ein Frankfurt 0 - 4 Hoffenheim 3.23 +£22.30 +£91.70 Sat 20th Nov Inverness CT 4 - 2 Hibernian 3.36 -£10.00 +£81.70 Tue 23rd Nov Bournemouth 2 - 0 Yeovil 5 -£10.00 +£71.70 Tue 23rd Nov Chesterfield 1 - 2 Oxford 5 +£40.00 +£111.70 Sat 27th Nov Barnsley 0 - 0 Watford 3.25 -£10.00 +£101.70 Sat 27th Nov Valenciennes 3 - 0 Arles 8 -£10.00 +£91.70 Sat 27th Nov Seville 1 - 3 Getafe 5.5 +£45.00 +£136.70 Sun 28th Nov Auxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse 4.1 +£31.00 +£167.70 Tues 30th Nov Kidderminster 0 - 0 York 3.1 -£10.00 +£157.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I have looked at home teams, and have been following a very similar system betting on homes. Backtestings showed a much lower profit than the aways, but a profit nonetheless, and so far this season (despite 0 from 4 last weekend), it's been showing a nice steady profit. I might post selections from it at some point, but to keep things simple, I'm planning on concentrating on the away wins for the time being.Bairn did you ever think of looking at home teams which you think you might have an edge on using similar system. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins One midweek fixture fits the criteria... Tues 30th Nov | Kidderminster v York £10 at 3.1 (Coral)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another great weekend for the system...
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 27th Nov Barnsley 0 - 0 Watford 3.25 -£10.00 +£101.70 Sat 27th Nov Valenciennes 3 - 0 Arles 8 -£10.00 +£91.70 Sat 27th Nov Seville 1 - 3 Getafe 5.5 +£45.00 +£136.70 Sun 28th Nov Auxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse 4.1 +£31.00 +£167.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another 4 for this weekend... Sat 27th Nov | Barnsley v Watford | £10 at 3.25 (Sky Bet or Ladbrokes) Sat 27th Nov | Valenciennes v Arles | £10 at 8 (Bet 365, Coral or Victor Chandler) Sat 27th Nov | Seville v Getafe | £10 at 5.5 (Sky Bet, Victor Chandler or Stan James) Sun 28th Nov | Auxerre v Toulouse | £10 at 4.1 (Bet 356)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Looks like I picked a good month to start posting these tips. The system has always been profitable long term, but the short term profit is even surprising me at the moment. Glad the selections are helping some of you out!
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Tue 23rd Nov Bournemouth 2 - 0 Yeovil 5 -£10.00 +£71.70 Tue 23rd Nov Chesterfield 1 - 2 Oxford 5 +£40.00 +£111.70 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Two fixtures from the midweek schedule meet the criteria... Tue 23rd Nov | Bournemouth v Yeovil | £10 at 5.0 (Ladbrokes, Stan James or Victor Chandler) Tue 23rd Nov | Chesterfield v Oxford | £10 at 5.0 (Stan James)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins The good run continues...
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 20th Nov Man Utd 2 - 0 Wigan 16.4 -£10.00 +£54.40 Sat 20th Nov Cardiff 0 - 2 Nottm Forest 4.5 +£35.00 +£89.40 Sat 20th Nov Charlton 3 - 2 Yeovil 6.5 -£10.00 +£79.40 Sat 20th Nov Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Southend 4.33 -£10.00 +£69.40 Sat 20th Nov Ein Frankfurt 0 - 4 Hoffenheim 3.23 +£22.30 +£91.70 Sat 20th Nov Inverness CT 4 - 2 Hibernian 3.36 -£10.00 +£81.70
Bairn's Value Away Wins
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Thanks for this - sounds v good. I hadn't really thought about it at all, but it does make sense to adjust the way ratings are calculated for different leagues. I've already got plenty of ideas lined up to try (on this and other systems), but I think I'll have to put these aside till the end of the season and hopefully have more profitable systems in place for next year!