bairn1
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Posts posted by bairn1
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 6 for the weekend... 02/12/2011 | Motherwell v Hibernian | £8.00 at 5 (Bet3000) 03/12/2011 | West Ham v Burnley | £6.00 at 6.65 (Pinnacle) 03/12/2011 | Brighton v Nottm Forest | £11.00 at 3.54 (Pinnacle) 03/12/2011 | Southport v Alfreton Town | £6.50 at 6 (Bet365) 03/12/2011 | Montpellier v Lorient | £7.50 at 5.1 (Unibet) 04/12/2011 | Osasuna v Betis | £10.50 at 3.81 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 29/11/2011 Southampton 2 - 1 Hull 6.5 -£5.50 £546.50 29/11/2011 Hartlepool 0 - 1 Preston 3.02 £24.24 £570.74 29/11/2011 Barrow 1 - 0 Alfreton Town 4.65 -£8.00 £562.74 29/11/2011 Southport 1 - 3 Forest Green 4 £27.00 £589.74 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Busy one tomorrow night... 29/11/2011 | Southampton v Hull | £5.50 at 6.5 (Marathon) 29/11/2011 | Hartlepool v Preston | £12.00 at 3.02 (Pinnacle) 29/11/2011 | Barrow v Alfreton Town | £8.00 at 4.65 (Unibet) 29/11/2011 | Southport v Forest Green | £9.00 at 4 (Coral)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 26/11/2011 Sunderland 1 - 2 Wigan 5.65 £30.23 £579.00 26/11/2011 Cardiff 1 - 0 Nottm Forest 4.2 -£9.00 £570.00 26/11/2011 Accrington 3 - 0 Dag and Red 4.33 -£8.50 £561.50 26/11/2011 St Johnstone 3 - 1 Hibernian 3.9 -£9.50 £552.00 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 for the weekend... 26/11/2011 | Sunderland v Wigan | £6.50 at 5.65 (Pinnacle) 26/11/2011 | Cardiff v Nottm Forest | £9.00 at 4.2 (Boyle) 26/11/2011 | Accrington v Dag and Red | £8.50 at 4.33 (Coral) 26/11/2011 | St Johnstone v Hibernian | £9.50 at 3.9 (Boyle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 19/11/2011 Southport 2 - 1 Bath City 5 -£7.50 £554.77 19/11/2011 Wrexham 2 - 0 Lincoln 6 -£6.00 £548.77 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 picks for the weekend... 19/11/2011 | Southport v Bath City | £7.50 at 5 (Betfred) 19/11/2011 | Wrexham v Lincoln | £6.00 at 6 (Coral)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 05/11/2011 Newcastle 2 - 1 Everton 3.6 -£10.00 £522.52 05/11/2011 Man United 1 - 0 Sunderland 15.5 -£2.50 £520.02 05/11/2011 Ipswich 2 - 3 Doncaster 5.5 £29.25 £549.27 05/11/2011 AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Barnet 4.5 -£8.00 £541.27 05/11/2011 Kilmarnock 3 - 6 Inverness C 4 £27.00 £568.27 06/11/2011 Rennes 1 - 1 Valenciennes 6 -£6.00 £562.27 07/11/2011 St Johnstone p - p Aberdeen 3.6 £0.00 £562.27 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 7 picks for the weekend... 05/11/2011 | Newcastle v Everton | £10.00 at 3.6 (Boyle) 05/11/2011 | Man United v Sunderland | £2.50 at 15.5 (Pinnacle) 05/11/2011 | Ipswich v Doncaster | £6.50 at 5.5 (Bet3000) 05/11/2011 | AFC Wimbledon v Barnet | £8.00 at 4.5 (Ladbrokes) 05/11/2011 | Kilmarnock v Inverness C | £9.00 at 4 (Ladbrokes) 06/11/2011 | Rennes v Valenciennes | £6.00 at 6 (William Hill) 07/11/2011 | St Johnstone v Aberdeen | £10.00 at 3.6 (Bwin)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
What peoples view on a progressive staking plan. I was thinking of if my bank makes upto £200 i will do £20 per selection' date=' then £300, £30 etc. Discuss.[/quote'] I personally like this kind of staking plan, and use something similar for a number of systems. Increasing stakes in this way makes sense to me as basically your bank is increasing so you have more available to bet with. So it takes advantages of winning runs by paying out more. On the downside, it can get a bit disheartening when you spend a while building up a good bank, increase the stakes, and hit a losing run. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 29/10/2011 Barnsley 1 - 2 Bristol City 3.82 £23.97 £509.12 29/10/2011 St Johnstone 0 - 1 St Mirren 3.6 £23.40 £532.52 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just 2 this weekend... 29/10/2011 | Barnsley v Bristol City | £8.50 at 3.82 (Pinnacle) 29/10/2011 | St Johnstone v St Mirren | £9.00 at 3.6 (Boyle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 25/10/2011 Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Accrington 5 -£6.50 £470.85 25/10/2011 Morecambe 3 - 3 Rotherham 3.4 -£9.50 £461.35 26/10/2011 Mallorca 1 - 2 Sp Gijon 4.4 £23.80 £485.15 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Coming thick and fast at the moment... 25/10/2011 | Shrewsbury v Accrington | £6.50 at 5 (Ladbrokes) 25/10/2011 | Morecambe v Rotherham | £9.50 at 3.4 (Ladbrokes) 26/10/2011 | Mallorca v Sp Gijon | £7.00 at 4.4 (Bet3000)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Hi Matt, As gilbertm kindly posted, the system doesn't look at Italian leagues. It back-tested very poorly against results in this league and was the only league for which it would have made a loss, had I been following it from 2007. When I looked into this a bit more to try to find out why, I found that (in recent seasons) the percentage of home wins in Serie A was much higher than the percentage of home wins in all of the other leagues. Not really sure why this is, but decided to stay clear of Serie A anyway.Hi Bairn1, A nice weekend for you to get you back on track. I'm curious to know what you thought of Atalanta this weekend and why it didn't crop up. Massive value on my ratings (and others I know of). Keep up the good work. Matt -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 21/10/2011 Cambridge 2 - 0 Lincoln 5.5 -£5.00 £423.64 22/10/2011 Leicester 0 - 3 Millwall 5.25 £23.38 £447.02 22/10/2011 Blackpool 1 - 2 Nottm Forest 4 £21.00 £468.02 22/10/2011 Sheffield Weds 2 - 0 Colchester 4.5 -£6.50 £461.52 22/10/2011 Hertha 0 - 0 Mainz 4.1 -£7.00 £454.52 23/10/2011 Betis 0 - 2 Vallecano 5.15 £22.83 £477.35 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 result from midweek and 6 picks for the weekend...
21/10/2011 | Cambridge v Lincoln | £5.00 at 5.5 (Coral) 22/10/2011 | Leicester v Millwall | £5.50 at 5.25 (Bwin) 22/10/2011 | Blackpool v Nottm Forest | £7.00 at 4 (Bet3000) 22/10/2011 | Sheffield Weds v Colchester | £6.50 at 4.5 (Ladbrokes) 22/10/2011 | Hertha v Mainz | £7.00 at 4.1 (Bet3000) 23/10/2011 | Betis v Vallecano | £5.50 at 5.15 (Pinnacle)Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 18/10/2011 Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Bristol City 4.37 -£6.50 £428.64 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for tomorrow night... 18/10/2011 | Crystal Palace v Bristol City | £6.50 at 4.37 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Some good news at last!...
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 15/10/2011 Hartlepool 1 - 3 Wycombe 4.6 £21.60 £424.18 15/10/2011 Braintree Town 3 - 3 Bath City 5 -£5.50 £418.68 15/10/2011 St Johnstone 2 - 0 Inverness C 4.2 -£6.50 £412.18 15/10/2011 Schalke 04 1 - 2 Kaiserslautern 7.56 £22.96 £435.14 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 for the weekend... 15/10/2011 | Hartlepool v Wycombe | £6.00 at 4.6 (Bet3000) 15/10/2011 | Braintree Town v Bath City | £5.50 at 5 (Coral) 15/10/2011 | Schalke 04 v Kaiserslautern | £3.50 at 7.56 (Pinnacle) 15/10/2011 | St Johnstone v Inverness C | £6.50 at 4.2 (Boyle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 08/10/2011 Mansfield 2 - 1 Grimsby 3.8 -£7.00 £402.58 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Yep, apologies.... 08/10/2011 | Mansfield v Grimsby | £7.00 at 3.8 (Stan James)Hi Bairn should it be Mansfield v Grimsby? -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for the weekend... 08/10/2011 | Mansfield v Gateshead | £7.00 at 3.8 (Stan James)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bit of catching up to do on the results, and not great reading...
Also, regarding the questions on whether the system has performed badly early in season in previous years, I've had a bit more of a look into this... In each of the months August 2009, September 2009, August 2010 and September 2010, the system made a profit. In August 2010 in particular, it made a very big profit (over £200 from 11 £10 bets!). However, in 2008, it only broke even for August and made a slight loss in September (-£13), and in 2007, it made a loss in both months (-£63 in August and -£40 in September). Looking at all the Augusts together, the system has made a very good profit with an ROI of 27% to level stakes, but looking at all the Septembers together, it has made a slight loss with an ROI of -5%. Because there aren't too many bets in total involved when looking at figures for a calendar month, I'm not sure how significant these figures are. For example, looking at all Decembers, there is a slight loss, again with an ROI of -5%, but in all the Novembers in total, there is a profit of 51% ROI, and in all the Januarys, there is a profit of 47% ROI. I'd struggle to put a theory on why the system didn't perform in December, but performed very well in the months immediately before and after it. Splitting the leagues into before New Year and after New Year does show what might be a more significant difference as the number of bets involved is a lot higher. Only betting between August and December gives an ROI of 13%, while only bettting between January and May gives an ROI of 60%. So, I guess looking at this it might be worth only betting small or even not betting at all until New Year, and then increasing the stakes after. However, looking at the 2008/09 season, before New Year gave an ROI of 47% compared to an ROI of 9% after. All of the figures mentioned here are to level stakes. I'll have a look now at how they differ when using the current staking plan, but I'm pretty sure they will be very similar. Hope this all helps (and doesn't confuse things further!)Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 24/09/2011 West Ham 1 - 0 Peterboro 6 -£5.00 £432.88 24/09/2011 Sheffield Weds 3 - 0 Exeter 6 -£5.00 £427.88 24/09/2011 Morecambe 2 - 3 Bristol Rvs 3.6 £20.80 £448.68 24/09/2011 Mgladbach 1 - 0 Nurnberg 3.75 -£8.00 £440.68 24/09/2011 Motherwell 1 - 0 Aberdeen 4 -£7.50 £433.18 25/09/2011 Rennes 1 - 1 St Etienne 4.75 -£6.00 £427.18 01/10/2011 Aston Villa 2 - 0 Wigan 6.2 -£4.50 £422.68 01/10/2011 Southampton 4 - 0 Watford 6.2 -£4.50 £418.18 01/10/2011 Leeds 1 - 0 Portsmouth 4.4 -£6.50 £411.68 01/10/2011 AFC Telford United 1 - 1 Hayes & Yeading 4.05 -£7.00 £404.68 01/10/2011 Lorient 2 - 0 Valenciennes 4.33 -£6.50 £398.18 01/10/2011 Caen 1 - 1 Nice 3.9 -£7.50 £390.68 02/10/2011 Sociedad 1 - 2 Ath Bilbao 3.1 £18.90 £409.58
Software / System Builder
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Software / System Builder If you're looking for full automation, I'd suggest PHP and MySQL. PHP to do things like read in results, and MySQL to store these in a database. If you're not familiar with computer programming though, the learning curve for this will be very steep. You'll also need some sort of web hosting (might have to pay for this), or the ability to set up your computer as a web server. The big advantage is that you can set up "cron jobs" to automatically read in results and keep your database up to date, so once up and running, you can just leave it to do all the work. You can also use odds feeds to get details of up and coming fixtures and put code in there to find out which fixtures fit with your systems. You can even set up cron jobs so that they send you an email every time when a new fixture shows up that fits in with your system, so all you have to do is check your e-mails and place bets. Not easy at all any of this, but there are lots of tutorials on PHP and MySQL on the web, and if you can get it working, it's the best solution for this kind of thing that I've come across.