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bairn1

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Posts posted by bairn1

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi all, Sorry for the lack of posts at the weekend. I was off on a stag do and didn't get time to check the fixtures. I can't easily check which would have come up as picks as I've updated the ratings already with the weekends results, but Saint-Etienne I think probably would have, and possibly Brest too. Not sure about Valencia, and Catania wouldn't as the system ignores Serie A as back-testing showed poor results and over the last few years there's been a much higher percentage of home wins in this league than in the others. One result to catch up on...

    DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum
    18/05/2011 Huddersfield 2 - 2 Bournemouth 5.34 -£10.00 +£505.70
    I think there's just one round of matches left in France, so will post anything that pops up there, but more than likely this will the last till next season. Thanks everyone for the kind comments and advice, and hopefully we can carry on where we left off (i.e. making money from the bookies) soon!

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Well' date=' looks like I've missed out by only spotting this at the end of the season. Will you be continuing this through to next season as well Bairn?[/quote'] Yes, I'm hoping to carry on next season. I may have to try to lower expectations a bit as although this system has made a profit every season I've run it or backtested it (four seasons now), this season has been by far its most profitable! Only a handful of league games, but one meets the criteria... 18/05/2011 | Huddersfield v Bournemouth | Away Win | 5.34 (Pinnacle)

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    just a note' date='20 or 21 of the games(about 3/4) that have won for Bairns have ended 0..1,0..2 or 1..2 with spurs tradeing at 5.3 on betfair(between 4/1 and 9/2) dutching these 3 scores @ 20/38/20 would pay £69 to a £10 stake(just under 7/1)...as i say just a note for any correct score peeps....great system Bairns:dude...i back the away with a side score bet[/quote'] Hi there, Unfortunately I don't have correct score for historical data to test, but a quick scan of past results does seem to show a lot of these results. If I get a chance in the summer, I'll do a frequency count of correct scores and hopefully this will give a good idea as to whether this idea might be profitable in the long run.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Hi Bairn , I have re-read your posts this morning but do not quite understand the difference between using your performance and and points based ratings If you rate the away team stronger with your performance ratings than the home team I can understand that this could be considered a likely away win. But I am confused because you then say that if the points based system produces a lower score for the away team then away win becomes the selection. Surely it becomes less likely as an away win if the home score is higher ? Or is it because it then means that the odds offered are going to be better for the away team. Sorry if this sounds a bit dim.
    Hi there, There's a bit more too it, which, for reasons already mentioned on this thread, I'm afraid I don't want to give away, but I think you're understanding it correctly - even if it does seem confusing! Bascially it is looking for fixtures where the odds on an away win are bigger than I think they should be.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    @Bairn Have you considered a system based on draws using your formula?
    Hi there, I have tried to find a system that picks out draws using the same ratings, but unforunately I haven't yet been able to find anything that's shown good profit when back-testing.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Will there be a presence from other leagues during the european close season ?? - just to keep the momentum (& profits :dude) going :drums
    I wouldn't rule it out at the moment, but I don't believe the data I need for this is readily available for other leagues. Depending how much spare time I have in a month or so's time, I'll try and investigate this further, but given the time it takes to get the data in the correct format, backtest it, etc., then it's looking likely that I won't be running the system over the summer months.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum
    16/04/2011 Preston 3 - 1 Sheffield United 4 -£10.00 +£396.40
    16/04/2011 Reading 3 - 1 Leicester 3.9 -£10.00 +£386.40
    16/04/2011 Rochdale 0 - 1 Brentford 4.5 +£35.00 +£421.40
    16/04/2011 Wycombe 2 - 2 Northampton 5.15 -£10.00 +£411.40
    16/04/2011 Lille 1 - 1 Bordeaux 6 -£10.00 +£401.40
    17/04/2011 Levante 2 - 1 Hercules 3.75 -£10.00 +£391.40

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Hi bairn1, Sorry if it was mentioned earlier, but which exactly leagues your system cover? Do you plan to test/run system on football leagues where games are played in summer (i.e. eastern European leagues, Scandinavian leagues, etc)?
    Hi there, The system covers all English leagues down to and including the Conference, plus the top leagues in Spain, Germany, France and Scotland. Italy is excluded because their is a much higher percentage of home wins there than in other leagues. I'm not sure that the data I need is easily available for other leagues (including lower leagues in Spain, Germany, Scotland and France), but at the end of this season, I'll have a look and if so, then I'll backtest against these leagues and see how things look.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Very busy one this weekend!... 16/04/2011 | Preston v Sheffield United | Away Win | 4 (Blue Square) 16/04/2011 | Reading v Leicester | Away Win | 3.9 (Boyle) 16/04/2011 | Rochdale v Brentford | Away Win | 4.5 (BetFred) 16/04/2011 | Wycombe v Northampton | Away Win | 5.15 (Unibet) 16/04/2011 | Lille v Bordeaux | Away Win | 6 (General) 17/04/2011 | Levante v Hercules | Away Win | 3.75 (BetFred)

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Hi Bairn, I know I'm a bit late to the party but I've been following Muppet's corners thread for a while and saw a plug for your system. Impressive looking results and the generosity of people like you in posting solid systems is what keeps PL forum going strong. I'll follow with interest over the coming weeks and hope I can offer some assistance (and maybe make a bob or two!) Do you have a dontate button like Muppet? Regards JF
    Hi there, Thanks for your comments. Any assistance / advice is welcomed. I've already picked up three or four good ideas from others on here, though unfortunately haven't had the chance to test them, and probably won't now till the end of the season. I don't how to add a donate button, but if there is a chance of putting something on here, then I wouldn't turn it down! In the meantime, if anyone does want to donate anything and needs to open a new account with a bookmaker, it would be good to do this through an affiliated link at football-data.co.uk. Without the information I can use from there, I wouldn't have been able to calculate my ratings and come up with this system (and others).
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