bairn1
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Posts posted by bairn1
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Coming thick and fast at the moment, which maybe isn't a great thing, given the run we're on!... 24/09/2011 | West Ham v Peterboro | £5.00 at 6 (General) 24/09/2011 | Sheffield Weds v Exeter | £5.00 at 6 (Bet3000) 24/09/2011 | Morecambe v Bristol Rvs | £8.00 at 3.6 (Ladbrokes) 24/09/2011 | Mgladbach v Nurnberg | £8.00 at 3.75 (Bet365) 24/09/2011 | Motherwell v Aberdeen | £7.50 at 4 (Ladbrokes) 25/09/2011 | Rennes v St Etienne | £6.00 at 4.75 (Bet365)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Still not happening for us. Another few losing bets and the system is on it's worst ever run, so hopefully things will turn around this weekend...
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 20/09/2011 Cambridge 2 - 0 Ebbsfleet 4.5 -£6.50 £442.88 21/09/2011 Malaga 1 - 0 Ath Bilbao 5.99 -£5.00 £437.88 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Hi there, The system isn't particularly saying that Bilbao should win at Malaga. All it is saying is that they should have a better chance than the bookies have given them. So odds of 5.99 suggest that they have around a 17% chance of winning while this system suggests they have a better chance than this. Malaga will more than likely win, but in the long run, betting this way will show profit. Hope this makes sense.Why would Bilbao win at Malaga? Malaga has a good team and the results in their last games where good too. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 for midweek... 20/09/2011 | Cambridge v Ebbsfleet | £6.50 at 4.5 (Stan James) 21/09/2011 | Malaga v Ath Bilbao | £5.00 at 5.99 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins The bank would be a lot lower going on last year's strategy - £417.50.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I think changing the staking plan has been a curse! Hopefully the system will get back up and running soon though...
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 13/09/2011 Brentford 1 - 1 Colchester 4 -£8.00 £480.88 17/09/2011 Hartlepool 3 - 0 Bury 4 -£8.00 £472.88 17/09/2011 Toulouse 3 - 2 Bordeaux 3.29 -£9.50 £463.38 17/09/2011 Hertha 2 - 2 Augsburg 6.62 -£5.00 £458.38 18/09/2011 Lyon 2 - 0 Marseille 3.64 -£9.00 £449.38 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 picks for the weekend... 17/09/2011 | Hartlepool v Bury | £8.00 at 4 (Ladbrokes) 17/09/2011 | Toulouse v Bordeaux | £9.50 at 3.29 (Pinnacle) 17/09/2011 | Hertha v Augsburg | £5.00 at 6.62 (Pinnacle) 18/09/2011 | Lyon v Marseille | £9.00 at 3.64 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 13/09/2011 Brentford 1 - 1 Colchester 4 -£8.00 £480.88 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for tomorrow... 13/09/2011 | Brentford v Colchester | £8.00 at 4 (General)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
There are plenty of weeks without a winner, betting at average odds like these. I have had a few occasions in the past of 10+ games in a row without a win, but it's always showed a good long term profit.To be honest I thought Cardiff and Charlton would definitely win so I did back Ebbsfleet...close in the end :ok How many times have you had a week with not one winner? -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 10/09/2011 Cardiff 2 - 0 Doncaster 6 -£5.50 £501.38 10/09/2011 Charlton 2 - 0 Exeter 6 -£5.50 £495.88 10/09/2011 Kidderminster 2 - 2 Ebbsfleet 5 -£7.00 £488.88 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I wouldn't be able to test this without the exact odds, but I'd be pretty sure this would still give a good profit. However, the system would've lost a lot more if betting on draws that it would have if betting on homes, so I think that the ROI would be a lot lower than if simply betting on aways.Just a question, if one were to stake on Draw no Bet instead of a straight away team win, would that tend to limit the profit or limit the losses? DnB odds are still generally pretty good anyway. Based on the above 3 selections, the odds are 3.75 DnB. I know this would depend on the number of draws vs losses in the picks, but it would be interesting to know the difference based on last season, -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another 3 for Saturday... 10/09/2011 | Cardiff v Doncaster | £5.50 at 6 (Ladbrokes) 10/09/2011 | Charlton v Exeter | £5.50 at 6 (BetFred) 10/09/2011 | Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet | £7.00 at 5 (Ladbrokes)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L Bank (£500 start) 03/09/2011 Hartlepool 2 - 0 Exeter 3.6 -£9.00 £489.63 03/09/2011 Sheffield United 4 - 0 Bury 5 -£6.50 £483.13 03/09/2011 Forest Green 0 - 1 Grimsby 3.5 £23.75 £506.88 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 3 for tomorrow... 03/09/2011 | Hartlepool v Exeter | £9.00 at 3.6 (Tote) 03/09/2011 | Sheffield United v Bury | £6.50 at 5 (Ladbrokes) 03/09/2011 | Forest Green v Grimsby | £9.50 at 3.5 (BlueSquare)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
i have a question' date=' as this system wins alot, is it real bookies try to close ur account if u win alot ? and how much is alot? :P thank you ...[/quote'] With a few bookies such as Stan James and SportingBet I was only £100 or so in profit and my stakes were severely limited meaning it was no longer worth while me betting with them. With Victor Chandler I was about level before winning a few hundred pounds on an ante-post accumulator and my account was closed. With some other bookies, I've won a lot more and can still place bets, and with some others I'm down, so they are obviously happy to keep taking my money! -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum 27/08/2011 Preston 2 - 0 Notts County 4.33 -£7.50 £492.50 27/08/2011 Shrewsbury 2 - 1 Swindon 3.5 -£9.50 £483.00 27/08/2011 Oxford 1 - 1 Aldershot 4.2 -£8.00 £475.00 27/08/2011 Port Vale 2 - 3 Southend 3.25 £23.63 £498.63 -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I haven't tested this in detail with last season's data, but it is the way I've been betting and has been back-tested before then. The ROI tends to be similar to level stakes, though I prefer it as this system could quite easily highlight a 16/1 shot and 9/4 shot on the same weekend, and I wouldn't like to be betting/risking the same amount on both.Hi Barn, Higher odds = lower stakes => sounds very logic, but it's still on theory, did you test it based on results of last seasons ? :) -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Okay, things are underway for 2011/2012! As mentioned before, a slightly different staking plan. Stakes are based on the odds (higher odds = lower stakes) and a percentage of the bank, where the initial bank is £500. 27/08/2011 | Preston v Notts County | £7.50 at 4.33 (Ladbrokes) 27/08/2011 | Shrewsbury v Swindon | £9.50 at 3.5 (Victor Chandler) 27/08/2011 | Oxford v Aldershot | £8.00 at 4.2 (Stan James) 27/08/2011 | Port Vale v Southend | £10.50 at 3.25 (BetFred)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Soon. Just need a few more matches to have taken place so I've got enough data to run the system.When are you back this season Bairn? :loon:loon -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
I do have accounts with quite a few bookmakers, but I'd recommend choosing from a few of Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, Bet365, CanBet, William Hill, Paddy Power and Coral, plus BetFair. Bookies that I can't encourage anyone to join are Victor Chandler (they closed my account a few months ago, despite my aggregate winnings being fairly moderate) and SkyBet, SportingBet and Stan James - they all limit my stakes so badly that it's hardly worth me betting with them any more.Good luck for this season Bairn, been following the thread for a while and extremely impressed with the system, will definately by following your picks this time around! Quick question, for Bairn, or anyone else, im new to online betting, and dont really want to open too many accounts, so if you could suggest one or two bookmakers who offer the best odds, which would you recommend? Many Thanks. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi all, Just to let you know that new picks will be appearing very soon. Just need a few more matches to have taken place so I've got enough data to run the system. Last season, a few people asked about betting on Asian Handicap with this system, and I managed to have a look into this. Using the data from football-data which only has odds for +1, 0, -1, etc. (i.e. no +0.75, -0.25, etc.) suggested that the system would have also been very profitable by betting on aways on the Asian Handicap in each of the last four seasons. The ROI would have been a lot lower as would be expected with lower odds (about 15% instead of about 35%), but I guess as the odds are a lot lower, then you might want to up the stakes a bit, and so could acheive a similar profit. I'm going to carry on with standard Away wins on this thread, but if you prefer to bet at lower odds with a higher strike rate, then I'm sure that taking any of these tips as AH bets, then you'd make a good long term profit. Also, this season, I'm going to change the staking plan a bit, so that stakes are higher when the odds are lower, and vice versa. And stakes will increase as our bank goes up and will decrease as our bank goes down. Last season, the system exceeded even my high expectations. It has made a good profit in each of the last four seasons, but nothing quite like it did last season. So I'm not expecting results quite as good as last season, but I'm still expecting a very healthy profit!
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Re: Comparing Systems Hi there, Thanks for your replies. These are helpful and basically confirm what I thought.
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Hi there, I was just wondering what people's thoughts were on comparing betting systems. i.e. If you've got a few systems which produce different ROIs, different number of bets, etc. do you have an easy way to tell which is best? I know a lot is down to personal preference (e.g. how risk averse you are), but say you have three systems that show up the following results on back-testing. Which would you say is best and why? System 1 113 bets £479 profit to £10 level stakes ROI = 42% Avg Odds = 2.87 Strike Rate = 51% System 2 763 bets £1,506 profit to £10 level stakes ROI = 20% Avg Odds = 3.3 Strike Rate = 36% System 3 259 bets £730 profit to £10 level stakes ROI = 28% Avg Odds = 3.46 Strike Rate = 30% I'm guessing there's no particular best / worst out of these, but I'd be interested to hear a few opinions of which they prefer and why. Many thanks.
Bairn's Value Away Wins
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi all, Apologies for the lack of updates. Not long back from a week's holiday (typically missing a 5/1 winner) and returned to some PC problems. I'll update things in a bit more detail in a few days time, but in the meantime, hopefully the following will go someway to helping me buy a Mac!... 01/10/2011 | Aston Villa v Wigan | £4.50 at 6.2 (32red) 01/10/2011 | Southampton v Watford | £4.50 at 6.2 (Bet3000) 01/10/2011 | Leeds v Portsmouth | £6.50 at 4.4 (Bet3000) 01/10/2011 | AFC Telford United v Hayes & Yeading | £7.00 at 4.05 (Pinnacle) 01/10/2011 | Lorient v Valenciennes | £6.50 at 4.33 (Ladbrokes) 02/10/2011 | Caen v Nice | £7.50 at 3.9 (Bet3000) 02/10/2011 | Sociedad v Ath Bilbao | £9.00 at 3.1 (Pinnacle)