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bairn1

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Posts posted by bairn1

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Great work amigo, its not often that a Football system has a win strike rate at those prices...well done... Having said that, I have a delightful little staking plan for you which you might like to look at. Simply put, all you do is increase your stake by 1pound when you strike a winner...eg 10 becomes 11, if you hit another winner, next bet becomes 12, if you hit a loser, back to 10...at first glance it would increase your profit by about 30 quid..if my maths are correct.. Anyway...well done again, keep up the excellent work...:clap
    Thanks for this. I do follow a similar staking plan where stakes are increased on winning runs and reduced on losing runs and would encourage others to experiment with staking plans to find one that suits them. The reason for me posting it here to level stakes is for simplicity and to make it easy for others to try different staking plans. Remember too though, that the system has been performing better than ever for the past few months, and losing runs of 10 or so are not uncommon over the long term. In the meantime, great result on Saturday...
    DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum
    26/03/2011 Leyton Orient 1 - 5 Yeovil 4.5 +£35.00 +£416.40

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thanks all for your help and advice. I managed to get things up and running using a scraper - not sure about the legalities of this and whether I'll get blocked from running this and have to find another solution soon, but at least for the time being, it's working. One pick for tomorrow... 26/03/2011 | Leyton Orient v Yeovil | Away Win | 4.5 (Coral)

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Unfortunately, I've got a bit of problem at the moment getting the odds for this weekend's fixtures into my database, and don't have a lot of time to try to sort it out. So it's looking like no picks for the weekend! Hopefully I'll get things sorted for next midweek. P.S. If anyone knows any easy way to get a list of up and coming fixtures and their odds (preferably with as many bookmakers as possible), that would be much appreciated.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Here's a breakdown of the results so far...

    DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum
    06/11/2010 Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds 3.25 +£22.50 +£22.50
    09/11/2010 Kettering 0 - 2 Mansfield 3.19 +£21.90 +£44.40
    14/11/2010 Chesterfield 1 - 2 Burton 5 +£40.00 +£84.40
    14/11/2010 Torquay 1 - 1 Barnet 6.08 -£10.00 +£74.40
    14/11/2010 Kettering 2 - 2 Cambridge 3.1 -£10.00 +£64.40
    20/11/2010 Man Utd 2 - 0 Wigan 16.4 -£10.00 +£54.40
    20/11/2010 Cardiff 0 - 2 Nottm Forest 4.5 +£35.00 +£89.40
    20/11/2010 Charlton 3 - 2 Yeovil 6.5 -£10.00 +£79.40
    20/11/2010 Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Southend 4.33 -£10.00 +£69.40
    20/11/2010 Ein Frankfurt 0 - 4 Hoffenheim 3.23 +£22.30 +£91.70
    20/11/2010 Inverness CT 4 - 2 Hibernian 3.36 -£10.00 +£81.70
    23/11/2010 Bournemouth 2 - 0 Yeovil 5 -£10.00 +£71.70
    23/11/2010 Chesterfield 1 - 2 Oxford 5 +£40.00 +£111.70
    27/11/2010 Barnsley 0 - 0 Watford 3.25 -£10.00 +£101.70
    27/11/2010 Valenciennes 3 - 0 Arles 8 -£10.00 +£91.70
    27/11/2010 Seville 1 - 3 Getafe 5.5 +£45.00 +£136.70
    28/11/2010 Auxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse 4.1 +£31.00 +£167.70
    30/11/2010 Kidderminster 0 - 0 York 3.1 -£10.00 +£157.70
    11/12/2010 Colchester 0 - 0 Yeovil 5.5 -£10.00 +£147.70
    12/12/2010 Freiburg 3 - 0 Mgladbach 4.12 -£10.00 +£137.70
    12/12/2010 Mallorca 0 - 1 Santander 5.5 +£45.00 +£182.70
    15/12/2010 Cheltenham 0 - 2 Southend 3.5 +£25.00 +£207.70
    18/12/2010 La Coruna 1 - 1 Sporting Gijon 4 -£10.00 +£197.70
    20/12/2010 Manchester City 1 - 2 Everton 5.5 +£45.00 +£242.70
    08/01/2011 Tranmere 3 - 3 Walsall 3.7 -£10.00 +£232.70
    09/01/2011 Santander 1 - 1 Sp Gijon 4.36 -£10.00 +£222.70
    15/01/2011 Chesterfield 1 - 0 Stevenage 4.07 -£10.00 +£212.70
    22/01/2011 Exeter 2 - 1 Walsall 4.5 -£10.00 +£202.70
    25/01/2011 Cheltenham 1 - 2 Lincoln 4.5 +£35.00 +£237.70
    30/01/2011 Ein Frankfurt 0 - 1 Mgladbach 3.8 +£28.00 +£265.70
    05/02/2011 Man City 3 - 0 West Brom 9 -£10.00 +£255.70
    05/02/2011 Nottm Forest 1 - 0 Watford 4.75 -£10.00 +£245.70
    05/02/2011 Chesterfield 2 - 2 Aldershot 5 -£10.00 +£235.70
    08/02/2011 Leyton Orient 3 - 0 Swindon 3.75 -£10.00 +£225.70
    12/02/2011 Histon 0 - 1 Hayes & Yeading 3.3 +£23.00 +£248.70
    12/02/2011 Kettering Town 1 - 1 Barrow 4 -£10.00 +£238.70
    15/02/2011 Exeter p - p Swindon 3.75 +£0 +£238.70
    15/02/2011 Gateshead 1 - 0 Hayes & Yeading 4.63 -£10.00 +£228.70
    19/02/2011 Millwall 2 - 3 Middlesbrough 3.8 +£28.00 +£256.70
    19/02/2011 Hannover 3 - 0 Kaiserslautern 4 -£10.00 +£246.70
    19/02/2011 Freiburg 2 - 1 Wolfsburg 2.99 -£10.00 +£236.70
    26/02/2011 Carlisle 0 - 1 Sheffield Weds 3.2 +£22.00 +£258.70
    26/02/2011 Chesterfield 0 - 2 Morecambe 5.5 +£45.00 +£303.70
    05/03/2011 Cardiff 0 - 2 Ipswich 4.5 +£35.00 +£338.70
    06/03/2011 Freiburg 1 - 3 Werder Bremen 2.94 +£19.40 +£358.10
    12/03/2011 Watford 3 - 0 Sheffield United 4.6 -£10.00 +£348.10
    12/03/2011 Leyton Orient 1 - 0 Oldham 4.75 -£10.00 +£338.10
    12/03/2011 Hereford 1 - 2 Barnet 4.33 +£33.30 +£371.40
    20/03/2011 Valencia 0 - 1 Seville 4 +£30.00 +£401.40
    22/03/2011 Brighton 1 - 0 Notts County 7 -£10.00 +£391.40
    22/03/2011 Leyton Orient 1 - 1 Dag and Red 5.13 -£10.00 +£381.40
    and some stats... Number of bets = 50 Number of winning bets = 21 Total staked = £500 Total profit = £381.40 ROI = 76% (!) Average odds = 4.72 Strike rate = 42%

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Hi Bairn, Congratulations on your success so far (the Daggers have gone 1 up too!:notworthy). As the season comes to a close there'll be games where some teams have nothing to play for. Do you avoid these games?
    Hi there, Maybe I should, but I don't avoid any games at all, and just let the maths do the work. The theory being that if a team has nothing to play for, then the bookies might give them longer odds than they would do normally, so even if my system was less likely to pick a winner in this way, I'd still expect their to be value against the bookmakers' odds.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Two picks for midweek... 22/03/2011 | Brighton v Notts County | Away Win | 7 (General) 22/03/2011 | Leyton Orient - Dag and Red | Away Win | 5.13 (Pinnacle) Also, a bit of an aside, but just noticed that Notts County's last 13 matches have all featured under 2.5 goals!

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Excellent stuff' date= Bairn..... you are certainly "on a roll". :clap Any chance of publishing overall statistics, i.e. total number of bets, total staked, total profit, yield? I think they will be pretty impressive ;)
    Hi there, I'll post a full rundown of results when I get a chance later in the week. It's probably a good time to do this, as losing runs are inevitable with this system (given the high odds of its selections), so it'll be nice to look back on a good run like the one we're enjoying now, when bad runs do occur!

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Nearly forgot (!), here are this week's system picks... 12/03/2011 | Watford v Sheffield United | Away Win | 4.6 (Totesport) 12/03/2011 | Leyton Orient v Oldham | Away Win | 4.75 (Bet365) 12/03/2011 | Hereford v Barnet | Away Win | 4.33 (Ladbrokes)

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Bairn do yourself a favour mate and stop emailing your system out. It's just encouraging more people registering to steal your idea and they should back off. Too much take for nothing. Selections alone are good enough and welcomed by the regulars of the lounge. If you're not that bothered about emailing things out then you might aswell post it in the forum itself.
    Hi there, Thanks for this. I never really thought about it like, this. I haven't actually been giving much away on the detail of the system, just a bit of background and some advice, but I think you're right that I should be more wary.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    I have read your picks over the last few weeks but finally put a couple of quid on yesterday. Cracking start! Thank you for your selections. :clap Quick question bairn... Although I have backed singles I also stuck a small double on too. Have you done the same? If so, have you found it profitable? Or is win singles the way forward in your opinion? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Hi there, I rarely bet doubles (or greater) on bets with odds such as these, though I wouldn't want to put you off doing it. I'm sure it would be profitable with this system in the long run, but while you would have a few very big wins, you would also have a lot of losing bets. Betting on win singles should give a more steady profit (i.e. a bigger strike rate, but lower payouts), though as others have suggested on here, betting on the asian handicap or even laying the home teams should give a steadier profit still.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Bairn well done again. you will encounter a problem assuming you want to make a living out of this and you could well make a fortune. However, with on average 3 picks a week going to be very difficult as bookies will curtail odds or amount you can get on eventually, obviously betfair is different but very seldom best price after you take commission off. I have a system which I think is more complex than yours but based on similar theory and picks on average about 50 teams a week and ROI is about 20% and has been for last 7 years on average. I think in the long run you may be in a better position if you tweak your formulae to allow for smaller returns but more picks. That way I think it is more sustainable, just a thought.
    Hi there, I do already have a problem with betting restrictions with Bookies (e.g. I'll try to bet £20 and then be told that my maximum stake is £2.50!). I think however, that this was caused more when I used to look for horse racing arbs and so place very big stakes with the bookies and then lay on the exchanges to gaurantee a profit. I do bet to a few other systems in parallel to this one, so most weekends I'll be placing about 20 to 30 bets in total. I think this does make my betting more sustainable, as most weeks I tend to have a modest overall profit - rather than have a few great weekends, but also some bad losing runs. Also, regarding the success of the system, the ROI over recent seasons is a lot lower, though has always been good. The system just seems to be on a very good run at the moment!

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Fantastic again bairn1' date=':clap:clap i must admit i tried to figure out how you get the ratings with preformence and points but I am not even close.. can?t imagine how feks you can say that Ipswich with two straight losses can preforme better than Cardiff with two straight wins.. Fantastic stuff you are showing here... feel free to email me i with the "secret" as i am bouncing of the walls here trying to find a way to make profit.. :-) [email protected] :unsure I try to figure out when the away teams preforme better than they are supposed to do with their current league placing,, but i am lost in the statistic,,, :\ Anyway thank you for sharing your expertise :notworthy:notworthy
    Hi there, I've sent you an e-mail. Hope this helps.

    Bairn's Value Away Wins

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

    Dear bairn, With a lot of interest i have followed your picks, my respect. could you give a more detailed insight which selection criteria you are using for picking your games? greetz
    Hi there, For reasons mentioned earlier in this thread, I'm afraid I don't want to give too much away. However, a few of the posts on the first page give a good overview of how matches are selected, so hopefully this will help.
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