neilovan

I think Moller looks a decent player. He's 21 and already ranked 130 ish. Top 100 is waiting for him.

I think credit is due to Ostapenko. She maybe has an unfair reputation of being very hit or miss. But at the moment she is definitely way more hit than miss. I think she was in control of this match from quite early. I added to my initial bet in-ply so it was good. I see Moller mullering Comesana. Dunno what is up there but he has won 8 games in a row. Long may this wave of excellent results continue

So she blew up one match later.

I am using variable staking, essentially from 1 to 5 units. I think I will go with Moller. Again split the bet between over 21.5 games at 1.72 and Moller win 2.2 In my system Moller has a higher ranking than Comesana..

How about Comesana v Moller. My system indicates a very close match. 2 of my models right on the edge and one leans towards Moller. I'm thinking over 21.5 games at odds of 1.72

I have a feeling she cleans Alexandrova up. But either way, not a huge bet for me. I am looking for low handing fruit for next weeks qualifying in Madrid.

I think you cannot underestimate how good she must feel on the court having dropped so much weight. SHe has shed at least 6 kgs (maybe more). Not dragging that extra mass around the court is huge.

I watched Rune against Khachanov today and I thought he was excellent. Maybe he is growing up and becoming more mature. But he has real talent. You watch Ruud, Khachanov etcand they are exceptional grinders. But there is no 'WOW' . You watch Rune, and he definitely has 'WOW'. He hits some shots that get your attention. I think he slumped last year, because he saw how good Sinner and Alcaraz were/are, and decided to retool his game. He kind of knew that (at that stage) the current version of his game was not good enough to beat either of them. And he sees these 2 guys as his main competition (Draper, Fils also in the mix) going forward. Djoko is fading, Zverev will not win a major (IMO), I don't think Rune can beat Alcaraz yet, but if he hits a hot streak and Alcaraz goes walkabout, he can definitely take a set (maybe more). Not a big bet but I'm thinking 3 sets here. I'll split a small bet on the 2:1 and 1:2 sets scoreline which is 4.25 and 8.50

Nice to see Alexandrova and Ostapenko win, but for me the Ostapenko win was more impressive. WHo is 6-0 against Swiatek? Basically nobody. I thought that Alexandrova was quite close to melting down in her match. Definitely showed nerves, especially being 0-40 up with 3 match points. IMO Pegula beat herself more than Alexandrova won. Pegula looked nervous, and tense, and it got into her forehand which went to pieces. Gotta say ALexandrova served well. Basically 2 1st serves ... but her ground strokes were not dominant. Ostapenko had solid tactics, and she kept herself well under control. Way better than Alexandrova. And the pressure was greater on Ostapenko, having to win a 3rd set (again). Alexandrova won't get away with rally ballground strokes against Ostapenko. Ostapenko wants to play short decisive points ... winning or losing them on her terms. She will hit most of these rally balls for winners or errors. This type of tactic works well (just ask Raducanu at the US open), and is so atypical of the woman's game. It has a 3 X detrimental effect on the opponent. 1) Opponents are not used to it . 2) Nobody likes being hit off the court and smacked about. 3) Opponents are denied rhythm by these stop/start points. I don't see Alexandrova winning this match, and I think it could go away quickly from her. I am going to split my bet 1/2 onto Ostapenko to win at 2.1 and 1/2 on to her to win in straight sets at 3.1 . In her interview after the match Ostapenko reminded everyone that she is a French Open champion (2017), and on this form she must be in the mix.

That Iga Swiatek, wet fish, graceless handshake is worth a watch. She has to learn to win and lose with a smile. It's such a bad look. If you give your best and lose ... so be it. You dish out hidings every week and when you lose it's with such a lack of class and bad vibes. Seriously nobody likes losing. She has to be better than that.

Rocket like start to the weekend with Alexandrova, and Ostapenko wiping the floor with Swiatek atm. This match will be full of seve breaks, but Swiatek looks super shakey on her serve. Too many doubles, and def feeling 2nd serve pressure. The match that looks interesting to me is the Volynets v Waltert one. I don't think Volynets should be that low for the win. She has a nothing serve. For me this is close, but I'm open to opinions here.

Ostapenko also looks to be at a high level of fitness. She's lost a lot of weight (I don't care if it's ozempic), and it will only help her game.

So very solid 3 days early in the week returning close to 7 units I was very impressed with Ostapenko against Navarro. She hit Navarro off the court in many periods of the match. Came to the 3rd set, my feeling was that Navarro would win. But Ostapenka just kept going and won easily. She broke Navarro 6 times, with Navarro getting to deuce once in those 6 games. That is some display of returning ... essentially overpowering your opponent ( ala Serena) on the return. And Navarro did not serve badly (64% 1st serve). Ostapenko did the same to Yastremska (before she quit). So the question is "what can she do against Swaitek?" There are only two ways Swiatek can serve to Ostapenko. Either at the body (which Navarro tried), or in the corners. Neutral ball in the serve box is a no-no. Can she do this consistently? Not so sure ... I think a 1/2 sized bet on Ostapenko to win here is worth it. Pegula v Alexandrova. I am not a Pegula fan. For me she is a flat track bully, but when things get tough and complex on the court, she crumbles. OK Pegula beat her in a very close match in Charleston ... but now we are in Europe and that should favor the European. Alexandrova is beating good opponents easily. Zheng 6-1 6-4, Shnaider 6-2 6-1, Samsonova 6-3 6-3 M Andreeva 6-3 6-2. That last one is a proper spanking of a seriously good player. I think she wins here. Stuttgart Pegula vs. Alexandrova 1.60 2.30 Sabalenko v Mertens 2:0 in sets Sabalenka is 1.48. Mertens can't handle the power of her opponent. Serve is OK but her movement is average at best.

Even less happening

Not much to add re today's matches. Most look 1 sided and quite dull. Uchijima v Rakhimova . Rakhimova no form, bad serve.. should lose here. 2 dogs to win Stuttgart Mertens vs. Shnaider 1.78 2.00 Rouen Ferro vs. Ponchet 1.60 2.30 Fils 2:0 against Martinez Tsitsipas 2:0 over Korda.

Tennis is just a tough sport. On a bad day (ie Grigor Dimitrov), you get badly exposed and drilled. There are no 11 teammates to help you over the line. You win and lose in your little team, and it is brutal. And winning and LOSING is contagious. It is like scuba diving, or playing poker and losing 4 days in a row. By day 5 you are walking around with a stale mind and a toxic body. And worse still you have a lot of time to let things fester and get worse. Tiafoe, Vekic, Carreno Busta, Garcia, Norrie, Etcheverry, Struff, Dart, Bublik all in this type of slump ATM. Win 1, lose 3 or worse. Definitely happening to Sakkari (who lost today), and another player who is playing later Haddad Maia v Navarro. Haddad Maia in a terrible slump, and she will probably get well beaten by Navarro. For me the 2-0 sets Navarro at 1.6 is OK (safer than the under 20.5 at 1.72. I think similar problems for Rakhimova v Uchijima. Rakhimova has had a terrible run, and it is very hard to reverse. Tomorrow I wouldn't go near Andreescu. On the comeback trail anything could happen, but definitely leaning towards a loss to Lamens. Last time the Andreeva sisters played I think Mira dumped the match. Tried to give her sister the ranking points. This is a 1 way trainsmash, for the older Andreeva, who just cannot serve. Will post other picks tomorrow AM.

The Tauson performance is quite interesting The fact that she blows up after losing a close 2nd set (6/7) indicates a few things. Possibly not so strong mentally. Tough players (mentally) overcome these setbacks and they come out on top. Maybe she is not fit enough. You can actually check this by looking at her 3 set W/L record. Maybe affected by heat. But either way, make a note of this and use it against her (betting wise) when the next opportunity arises. Off the top of my head I say similar happened in the Aussie open against Sabalenka, where she had chances and blew it. If you have a database of matches, check those players that exhibit the qualities. Lose a close set and blow up on the next one. And check those that don't as well.

Good to take a few days off and reevaluate. I think I have made some seriously good upgrades to my models, and am expecting good things. No doubt, as the the clay court season progresses it will become easier to identidy better betting oppotrtunities. 3 Dogs to win WTA Rouen Sakkari vs. Bouzas Maniero 1.45 2.70 Stuttgart Tauson C. vs. Potapova 1.57 2.35 Stuttgart Shanaider D. vs. Kudermetova V. 1.75 2.05 5 Favorites to win Barcelona Arnaldi M. vs. Korda S 1.85 2 Rouen Ruse E.G. vs. Jacquemot E. 1.57 2.35 Rouen Garcia C. vs. Blinkova A. 1.8 2 not played Munich Kecmanovic M. vs. Giron M. 1.35 3.00 125K Oeiras Zidansek T. vs. Barthel N. 1.42 2.65 Lets see what the new week brings.

What is with Shelton dropping his serve 6 times in a row? Is he injured? How do you win the 1st set and then get smoked 6-2 6-1. Something special from the 14th best player in the world. I am done for a few weeks. Simply have no form to win a close match, and am unable to get a 4 to 10 favorite over the line. Will hold on to some winnings and avoid this endless butt-kicking.

You think maybe he could win 1 of the next 5 points against a guy that has no weapons. NO he dumps the match in the bin and folds up like a bog roll in a thunderstorm.

Just amazing watching Auger Aliasimme play. He has such potential but just plays like a vegetable. Has the tennis IQ of a green pea. After today I will never bet on that guy again. I am watching the Bu v Musetti game now. Bu certainly has some ftness and stamina. Musetti going ape!

Just brutal to rely on someone else to perform. He really should win this most days. I see Auger Aliasimme struggling with the journeyman Altmaier and Musetti on the wrong end against Bu. Wawrinka had it going his way and blew it as well.

A couple of thing regarding Monte Carlo. 1) The Europeans should be more comfortable in Europe, while the American players now have to do some serious travelling out of their comfort zone. It has to help European based players. Does it affect players from South America or Oceania that much? No, these players are used to big travel, and long flights etc 2) Even at this stage some players have not played a competitive match on clay this season. Case in point: Lehecka v. Korda. I think these types of matches are going to be won by those that are more advanced in their clay court prep. Lehecka v Korda and Medvedev v Khachanov In both matches neither player has played a clay court match this season. Who is ready? Anyone's guess. Lehecka was done in Miami on the 21st of March, so he has a head start in this process over Korda who played his last match 27th March. I don't think that a player suddenly finds their form, during a match on a new surface. If they are outta sorts at the start they will be in the same place at the end. So my feeling is whoever starts well will probably win. OK, you get lower odds, but it is really an in-play betting opportunity. In the Medvedev match it is wait and see. This is quite a tricky one to call. Khachanov beat him last year at Monte Carlo. 3 underdogs to win Monte Carlo Tabilo v. Wawrinka 1.75 2.05 Monte Carlo Muller A. v. Ugo Carabelli C. 1.85 1.91 Monte Carlo Davidovich Fokina v. Shelton 1.60 2.30 3 favorites to win Monte Carlo Shapovalov D. v. Giron M. 1.45 2.7 Monte Carlo Auger Aliasimme v. Altmaier D. 1.42 2.85 Monte Carlo Berrettini M. v. Navone M. 1.5 2.54

Sorry my bad. I screwed up on this one.

I would be 4/4 today but Herbert is unable to win a point at 7/6 5/3 love:40 to go over 22.5 games. Add to Kenin who is winning (and opponent quits at 2-5 ... result stands at 2-6) and Pegula who wins in spite of herself, it is quite irritating. 3 bets that with a miniscule amount of good fortune ALL win.