NoFear
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Posts posted by NoFear
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Re: Big Bash League 2013/14
wow, how much did u bet kev. check at 19:40 and the line is at 10.5 sixesWednesday preview: 4pts Over 9.5 sixes 5/6 William Hill Given that Adelaide need to win by a massive margin I think there’s a bit of merit in taking over 9.5 sixes here. The Renegades have struggled to put totals together with the bat all season but they have managed to clear the ropes even in poor totals while Adelaide have to come out swinging at everything. The boundaries here are short as we know so with the match situation as it is the overs have every chance here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/adelaide-strikers-vs-melbourne-renegades-betting-strikers-situation-could-mean-lots-of-sixes-at-the-oval -
Re: Australian Open 2014
Mate, we have had this discussion on torque before like czechpunter said, and we dont want to derail another thread bringing ROIs and what not up again. Needless to say I myself have made the most money in my over 1000 bets by betting on longshots in not just tennis but horses, footy. Just because bookies say its a 20/1 shot, doesnt mean its a 20/1 shot. But u do need a proper staking plan and be able to take downswings that go on for months.Where can I see this? Do you mean well up for this year's Australian Open or Australian Opens of the past? I thought Torque was well down for this year's tournament but maybe I've missed a few winners. -
Re: Australian Open 2014
Hmmm' date=' I'm not so sure. The phrase which springs to mind is 'even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.' I'm just not sure betting on these long shots can be profitable in the long run but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.[/quote'] a couple of those 1.02 shots lays come in, and torque is quids in for rest of the season. Agreed finding those long shots is a difficult process, but seeing torques history, he is well up for Aus Open so must be doing something right. -
Re: Australian Open 2014
bravoStanislas Wawrinka to beat Novak Djokovic @ 10.00 Betfair The hard facts are that Wawrinka has not beaten Djokovic in over seven years and has also never beaten him at a Grand Slam, which helps to explain why the Serb is such a big favourite in this match. For some reason though, Wawrinka appears to be more competitive when playing Djokovic in best of five set matches, as was the case last year at this tournament and also the US Open. Going back to around the time that Wawrinka last beat Djokovic they played each other in a Davis Cup rubber that went to five sets, and so it does seem as though the Swiss prefers to play Djokovic when the format is longer. If this does turn out to be a long match then Wawrinka might have a slight advantage, as he didn't play a full match against Golubev in the first round and he got a walkover against Pospisil in round three. Given his form and how close he came to knocking Djokovic out here last year, Wawrinka will surely fancy his chances of going one better this year and getting the win. -
Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th
I think thats a good decision.From now on I won’t be doing in depth previews for any matches I don’t have picks for. -
Re: La Liga > January 17th - 20th
he posted something else which it seems he deleted later. He was blatantly saying that neilovan was a losing tipster and that he posted crap tips. I didnt think that was how people should behave here.Um. Any forum is about contribution from all people. Its also about being open and welcoming to new members and I don't like your last comment as its likely to put new members off so please ease up :ok -
Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th
Of course' date=' it would have been a little more helpful if you had posted this BEFORE the game :)[/quote'] exactly -
Re: La Liga > January 17th - 20th
wow, thats pretty harsh. He posts stats and his tips. Take it or leave it. He has been "Thanked 318 Times in 159 Posts". Besides, think you missed about last 10 tips of his, hence the whining. FYI he had a good run of winners and his contribution to the forum is far greater than yours.maybe I was wrong -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 TBH I think we are missing something here. The odds are 1.35 initially on twente and they have shortened to 1.25 now. Dont forget, last time we got caught as well if I remember correctly. The match was between PSV and cant remember which team but people on the dutch forums were betting against us and they were right. Just wanted to point this out as I was looking to go big on this as well but then saw the historic odds
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Re: Ligue 2 > January 17th - 20th dont care if the bets win or not. Appreciate the effort as always and those writeups are brilliant.
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Re: Australia vs England - ODI & T20 Series wow, I was congratulating myself for not backing the aussies when their 5th wicket fell, and then to see england throw it away again, well, it hurts.
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Re: Australian Open 2014 any views on this - http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/article/553/9118859/betting-charge-labelled-unfair especially this quote: "What our employee on court was doing is exactly what umpires do. They send information from the court back to other organisations that use it to profit from betting. In this case, the organisations are bookmakers and it is done through the tennis authorities' agreement with Enetpulse. However, the principle is identical." Obv we all know about people who do courtsiding, etc. But never ever thought there were companies set up to take such advantages. And organizers too? I am scared to bet on betfair or inplay now TBH.
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Re: Australia vs England - ODI & T20 Series kev, I havent been watching the ODI's, so hopefully u can advise here. You know i dont like taking short prices, let alone as short as 1.34 but johnson is back and really can one see any other result than the aussie win. given how the tour has played out, even the 1.34 is looking value. I am thinking about betting on it. was the first odi close and were stats misleading?
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Re: Chelsea v Manchester United > Sunday January 19th
is that a credible source? I always read express.co.uk articles and readers always seem to comment about the exaggeration
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Re: FA Cup > January 13th - 15th
I advise against it. Even though wigan are the defenders, and I think Rosler might rest a few players as they really have a good chance to make the playoffs and they probably dont need the cup distraction. In fact, Rosler said there "may be some surprises" in his team selection, which gives hope to fringe players such as Danny Redmond. And MK Dons home advantage will count since its the FA cup after all. Odds represent no value IMHO5pts Wigan to beat MK Dons 2.50 Bet365 Wigan have only lost 1 match under new manager Rosler and will look to get this done second time around. They led 2-0 in the first leg and took their eyes off the ball. MK Dons no longer have their loan striker who was the savior in the first match. They have good form themselves but Wigan are unbeaten in 7 and are back in the promotion race just off the play-offs. I think they will come good here. -
Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 typical result. Of course, now that I am not on them, sydney thunder go and win comprehensively. still i think we made the right decision to avoid this match. I am just glad I didnt follow renegades at such a skinny price even though they were facing a team with 19 straight losses. Statistics eh! What gets me is that stat guys would say that even if Thunder do manage to win, Renegades will be in the game till the last few overs at least as they are such huge favs. But then they get trashed so comprehensively that really the odds should have been the other way round. So to me, although t20 is not a cointoss, luck has a 70% role to play in it. One edge goes for four and the batsman survives to hit a couple more boundaries and the match turns on its head. TBH I still dont understand how a team could lose 19 T20s in a row. If we make them underdogs and their opponents 1.70 favs for each game (1.70 because in earlier games they woul be priced close to evens as they wouldnt be on such a losing run), we get odds of 1.70^19 = 24,000 So 24,000 to one is something eh!
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Re: England > Weekend > FA Trophy 3rd Round Jan 11 what do people think about Luton v Cambridge FA Cup replay. I lost a lot of money on luton, when cambridge came back to draw when 2 goals down. But I think Luton will be up for it at home but more importantly I think Money might rest a few here. He needs to catch up with Luton in the league and needs to get out of the cup soon. Any thoughts ADDPEA, SHIPS and others who follow the lower leagues much appreciated?
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Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Monday January 13th also, i think the injury affected aston villa a lot. if it hadnt, i m sure villa would have given them a good game. They were looking great on the counter. Obv its not over yet though.
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Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Monday January 13th
I agree...you often hear bettors say that a team needs to win a particular game' date=' and it's rather silly. The thinking here is that if Arsenal fall behind on the table, they won't be able to catch City...which is silly, because City won't win the rest of its games, either. It's January, all games are of equal importance, with two exceptions: Teams hoping to win the league mustn't lose points to poor sides, and ought to do well h2h against their title rivals. And really, on away in the Premier, there are no real "poor sides" at home as dogs. They're all tough.[/quote'] i agree with you here. Punters do tend to think if one team "needs" the win, the other team would just gift it to them. Its not as easy a sthat we all know. But this game is different. Its arsenal chance in a long time to challenge for the PL. And i am sure arsene would have drilled it into the players head that they cant lose again to a team who has already beaten them. If aston had not beaten them in the first match, I dont think arsene would have taken that extra effort to make sure the mistakes arent repeated and that players know that they need to give it everything. Of course, opinions differ and do like ur points. -
Re: Serie A > January 11th - 13th
lol, i was on betfair and the market was suspended for most of the game. guess every time they restarted, another one got sent off.3-0 two second half goals. 9 yellow cards and 3 red ones . Will finish as a 6-a-side kick around :ok -
Re: Big Bash League 2013/14
see if the team has 19 straight losses, then obv its a bit of a stupid punt taking them for 2.75. But I dont think there has been another team with that kind of a record. I have taken underdogs successfully a lot of times in 20-20. If a team had 5 straight loses, then it wouldnt worry me too much. I look at the players, and if both teams have decent players, then I would back the team available at 2.75 Take the case of sixers vs scorchers. Think everyone was on sixers but scorchers won. You do make a valid point that 20-20 might not be as much of a coin toss as many believe.You've answered your own question. They've lost 19 in a row, so 8/5 or whatever they are isn't big at all. I think people misjudge how short 20-20 games are. It's 120 balls each, it's not one over or a coin toss. There are still good teams and bad teams and prices of 4/7 or so on teams like Thunder losing or teams like Stars winning represent huge value when you consider how short the prices on teams with similar records in other sports usually are. Don't overthink it and end up betting on Thunder. You HAVE to take them to lose at the prices offered. -
Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 kev, what do u think about the price on Sydney Thunder. In IPL, I have always blindly taken prices which are that big cos I dont think any team in a 20-20 can be such a dog. However, I still cant understand how a team can lose 19 in a row! Must have been some kind of a world record. Maybe in big bash the teams are not as competitive (though i doubt it).
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Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Monday January 13th
"revenge" was just one of the factors which didnt bode well the bet that was in question - HT/FT. There are other factors like getting back to the top of the table, arsenal's form, villa's form, injuries, pressure on managers, etc. Most of these have already been mentioned previously. Arsenal was value when -1 was evens. Its a public play now and no value for me. As for villa countering, I am sure arsene is a good manager and he will have learnt from the mistakes that were made in the first match between these two.Let's see...yesterday everybody loved Stoke...similar odds. Tough first goal changed everything...perhaps. Today everybody loves Arse. (Who doesn't?) ;) But I digress. IF Arsenal come out like gangbusters to "avenge" the opening day loss...I do not think that athletes think like this, honestly...they will in fact be vulnerable to the one thing Aston Villa do, which is counter. IF Villa set up defensively, it might be very different. Walcott's absence can be covered, Arsenal have the horses, but... I guess I am generally opposed to backing public favorites, and this is one of those times. Considering my options at the moment...draw at 4.58? X-AW @ 4.35? Either team scores 4+ goals @ 5.8? lol...just thought I'd chime in. -
Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Monday January 13th
be careful with your ht/ft bet. Arsenal will be gunning for revenge against the team that beat them on opening day and likely be playing sharply from the word go on Monday Night TV's only game.Thanks for pointing out the -1 Arsenal Asian. Just slipped what's left of my mind :eek. One other bet that may be worth considering is the HTFT, DRAW/ARSENAL at 4.5 various Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 8 1st halves away. Villa have only lost 1 of their last 6 1st halves at home. They may play Arsenal tight in the 1st half and then fade away. Arsenal are also a very good 2nd half team away winning 7 of 10
Horse withdrawn due to gamble?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? anyone notice the gamble on Indus valley in 4:25. now 1/2 from 20/1