anaconda69

Lovely day here at HQ and enjoyed the sunshine.....2nd and 3rd in Guineas so not too bad!
soooo 2 bets in 4.45 with Hannons Dapper Valley @ 5/1 & Trefor @ 10/1 EW............
chit chat.....so funny as soon as off air, the TV were off and guess shot back to Hotel i guess for drink / meal.....
no Oli Bell either for a walk thru the race goers for inpromptu chat as TV loaded today with races every 15 mins!   
 
Our final race so hope to at least have a winner 🤞........
5.15     Christian David    6/1                  Key to Cotai   9/1 EW   WON                   Indivar  14/1  EW  ( placed earlier)                    5 places betfair       
😂 ive asked friends hubby to accompany me to collect 'MY' winnings 💷 this time.......unlike yesterday my handbag full of his winnings!    

Tamfana                                             3 40 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  66/1     - 4th
Porta Fortuna                                    3 40 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  20/1     - 2nd
Pride of Napal                                   4 30 Sby/         1/40th of a pt wn 18/1      - N/R
Lunar Eclipse                                     1 50 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  16/1
Vaguely Royal                                    3 00New/        1/40th of a pt ew  16/1      -2nd

Likewise lots of discussion for 1000 guineas but I think I'm just gonna back ...Porta fortuna ...Ew ...might not be better good enough but if the ground is on the fast side of good she will love it .....and I think she's overpriced 

As the bets have been discussed a rediscussed and are all over the place 
..today's are 
145 aberrama gold and rohaan Ew 
Guineas  I've got haatem Ew (win part 66/1) and ghostwriter Ew .....I just keep looking at haatems craven win and he just seemed to be enjoying himself and was never really pushed ...it was c/d ...that looks a lovely piece of form to me ....and he's had a run ......I'm hoping the bookies have made a big mistake with this horse 

Newmarket 1.45 Sixteen speedy animals go to post for the 6F class 2 handicap. It looks open but my shortlist comprises of the unexposed Charlie Hills runner Rabaah who’s been gelded since a decent fifth at York last June. His trainer still thinks he can make up into a pattern performer so has to be given plenty of respect. The veteran Summerghand was a massive eye catcher last time when running on to finish in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Craven meeting to finish fifth. Will he back that run up though? I’m not sure. Also there with claims is the Jack Channon runner Chairmanoftheboard who was runner up in this last year from a one pound lower mark and showed he retains all of his ability when runner up in a similar contest at Newbury last month won by Wiltshire. He’s the main pick although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Rabaah.   CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 RABAAH 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 2.05 Eight fillies or mares have declared for this 1M listed William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes run over a mile. Most of these are proven on soft ground so the underfoot conditions shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Choisya won at the big meeting here last August from the re-opposing Novus on soft ground and should strip fitter than most having run well when going down by a head in a listed race on the all-weather at Kempton last month. She should be thereabouts but it’s the lightly raced William Haggas trained Orchid Bloom that may be the answer to this puzzle. She has soft or heavy ground form figures of 112 with the latter second coming in a listed race at Saint-Cloud last September going down by the shortest of margins. She’s run well fresh in the past and can take the first prize under Cieran Fallon.   ORCHID BLOOM 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred   Newmarket 2.20 Another class 2 sixteen runner handicap with this one being run over 1M 1F. Again the race has a wide open look about it with the most interesting runner being the John & Thady Gosden entry Torito who was last seen running fourth at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes. He is 10lb higher now but if straight enough can feature at the business end. Plenty of these would prefer softer conditions and they include the likes of Liberty Lane, Mr Professor, Lattam and Theoryofeverything. One horse who won’t mind what the underfoot conditions are is Charlie Johnston’s Dutch Decoy who ran the re-opposing Hafeet Alain to a nose here at the Craven meeting and meets his rival on 4lb better terms which should be enough to turn the tables on him. The other Charlie Johnston runner here is Lion Of War who has the services of Oisin Murphy and returns to the Johnston stable having raced (just the once) for Brendan Walsh in America. He had previously ben a useful sort in handicaps notably when runner up at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates Handicap off a mark 5lb lower than today’s. He can also be competitive but in a race where it may pay to keep stakes small the pick is the Dutch Decoy.   DUTCH DECOY 1 point each way @ 8/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Thirsk 2.40 A maximum field of sixteen head to post for Thirsk’s big race of the day in the Vickers.bet Thirsk Hunt Cup run over a mile. Last year’s one - two Northern Express and Pisanello are back to challenge for the valuable prize and it maybe last year’s runner up Pisanello that can turn the table’s on his old rival on 5lb better terms for that 3/4L defeat. That was his first run of the season so we know that he can go well fresh and he went on from that fine effort to strike twice later in the season at Hamilton. He’s back on his last winning mark and an inside draw of stall one is always favourable on the turning track at Thirsk. Mark Winn has got on well with David O’Meara’s seven year old in the past, including in this race last year and looks good each way value in an open contest in which he could easily have been targeted at.   PISANELLO 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th12345   Newmarket 2.55 A rather disappointing renewal of the 5F Group 3 William Hill Palace House Stakes with eight going to post. The best in at the weights is the Charlie Hills trained Mitbaahy who ran well at the last meeting on his first run for Hills when fourth of 14 in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes won by Washington Heights. A reproduction of that run should see him go close and he’s the pick ahead of the only three year old in the field, the Karl Burke trained filly Beautiful Diamond who was last seen winning a listed race at Ayr at the Western meeting.   MITBAAHY 1 point win @ 7/2 Unibet   Newmarket 3.35 The first classic of the season is the Qipco 2000 Guineas run over a mile and this Group One contest has attracted eleven runners. At the top of the betting is the potential superstar City Of Troy. Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten Justify colt has looked a bit special in winning his three races as a juvenile culminating in success here over 7F in the Dewhurst. The extra furlong will not be a problem nor will any further easing of the ground. He’ll be very hard to beat and has the potential to be the best we’ve seen for a very long time. Second favourite Rosallion will be no pushover though as he was a very useful two year old who took the Group 1 Prix Jean-Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc weekend. His only disappointing run last year came on very soft ground so he wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft. Two interesting runners are the unbeaten pair of the Charlie Appleby trained Notable Speech who showed a sparkling turn of foot to win on the all weather a month ago at Kempton and the Karl Burke trained Night Raider who’s looked good in winning two all-weather races and again impressed in a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting. Both have to prove themselves on turf mind and the selection has to be City Of Troy who could be very special. If he wins this he will be a very short price for the Derby so maybe back him in the special price 2000/Derby double rather than at today’s cramped odds.   CITY OF TROY 2 points win double (to win 2000 Gns & Derby) 2/1 Ladbrokes

Abate                                         1 45 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew      28/1
Pisanello                                   2 40 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      12/1
Expressionless                         4 55 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Captain Wierzba                      4 30 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1
Comfort Zone                          5 25 Pun/                    1/40th of a pt ew       33/1
Mustazeed                               2 20 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1    - N/R

I've tried to calculate the fair odds from my systems but invariably it throws up a lot of the outsiders as value bets
For the 2000 guineas probably every horse apart from the favourite would be a value bet

I think the best thing about systems is throwing up a quick short list if you don't have the time or inclination to spend ages looking at the form for a days racing.......... use your system to get 3 or 4 'posibles' in a field and then look at those horses in more depth
Similar with 'Trends' ......... a quick way to eliminate a lot of runners in big fields
As long there's some logic behind the system or the trends then it's fair enough........ you have to accept that if you're quickly eliminating runners without due study then you're going to miss some winners !
 
 

I hope that I am transparent in my systems, I always state my profit or loss in the various threads I post on.
By your definition I am not smart because I will take the outcome of my system and bet on it regardless. So called negatives can in fact be positives if they are over compensated for in the betting.
You are right though, most systems fail. I always test mine on a years worth of data to see if it still makes a profit. I will then calculate the p-value to ensure that the results are not driven by chance. Even then I will bet small amounts until I have a sufficient bank for that system.

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

If u can beat a price even at the exchange Ur winning long term. 

Well lets take different types of punters. I assume we are talking about singles here.
Type 1 The analysers or ratings creators (me) I expect my horse to win i never pick an ew (that's different than having an ew bet because a daft sod would be a fool to back win only on a 33/1 shot, again me) so would have to be confident in my selection anyway so i would want the bigger price.
Type 2 The casual punter that just likes to have a bet, he might choose to have a win bet or an ew depending on its price if he is betting for fun rather than profit (a winning bet would be nice) could choose either.
Type 3 The punter that knows nothing about horses (you 🤣) and shouldn't really be having a bet on gg's should take the extra places in both cases.
Type 4 The shit bag punter that is scared of losing money that would go EW on a 3/1 shot type, he would defo pick both the extra place options.
Not applicable to Type 5 punters, The don't give a f**k punter that can't even be bothered reading past the list of runners let alone the "options"
 

Another variable is that Sky do not offer BOG.
Another feature is the "shape" of the betting, if the favourite is short priced then there is likely to be more benefit of betting each way

Had 2 L15's on the daily = 3 pts
2.45 Ayr Smalleytime 1 pt win at 8.2
3.15 Ayr Bustaam 1 pt win at 7.60
= 5 pts staked today
No Naps today

On my AW system I have found that forecast odds of 7/2 to 13/2 produce the best returns.

I have 80% SR on top 4 rated. Obviously the profit comes when a bigger odds winner wins... Could say ye just back the bigger but shorter keeps the bankroll stronger also and some of them drift bsp wise.

I'm not worried too much at the moment, I am very much in the learning process at the moment and the I suspect the finished selection process will be very much different to what I am doing at the moment.

Sat was odd day for me and friends, nothing much to stat so wouldn't worry too much!

Does the business ....beating the short price fav ....making a nice profit on the day 

Ew 5th ....was hoping for a better run but cest la vie

Sandown 1.50 A bumper field to start the day’s ITV action with a maximum twenty runners going to post for this class 2 2M Novices’ Championship Handicap Hurdle. Many are making their handicap debuts so have the potential to be better than their mark although the one I like has already had a run in a handicap. Sam Thomas’s Steel Ally followed up his cosy Wincanton win by pushing subsequent Cheltenham winner Doyen Quest to a neck at Newbury last month with the third, some 9 3/4L back in third, Imperial Saint also winning since to further boost the form. He has been shunted up 7lb for that fine effort and can run well each way. Also on the shortlist is John O’Shea’s Maasai Mara who looks well treated in his first handicap in first time cheek pieces. I can see him running well also.   STEEL ALLY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 MAASAI MARA 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5t 12345   Leicester 2.05 The feature race of the day at Leicester, and covered by the team at ITV is the 1M class 2 King Richard III Cup Handicap. Last year’s ready 4 1/4L winner Al Mubhir has his ground again and although 7lb higher than that win is most definitely the one they all have to beat. Trained by the in form William Haggas that was his only victory last season and he has been gelded since last seen. He did however come into last year’s race having had a run when 5th in the Lincoln and although the most likely winner is no value at his current odds of around 9/4. I’ll take him on with Tony Coyle & Keane Wood’s mud loving Thunder Roar. A dual winner in the mud last Autumn at York and Doncaster he went down by just half a length to the re-opposing Look Back Smiling (also declared at Haydock) and is a pound better off today. He looks sure to be thereabouts today under Cam Hardie and can be backed each way.   THUNDER ROAR 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Sandown 2.25 Just the seven face the starter for this Grade 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase run over 2M 6 1/2F. The best in at the weights by a pound is Patrick Neville’s The Real Whacker who drops in trip and, according to his trainer in the trade press earlier in the week, will relish the drier ground. He looks the most likely winner to me. Paul Nicholl’s Hitman sports blinkers for the first time and at the weights is the likely danger with the Willie Mullins representative Easy Game having to carry a 6lb penalty and also sporting first time cheek pieces. Not a very inspiring race with all bar Fantastic Lady sporting some form of headgear but the pick is The Real Whacker to small stakes.   THE REAL WHACKER 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Haydock 2.45 A ten runner 7F class 2 handicap which is covered by the ITV cameras today and it really does have an open look about it. With the ground riding very soft all bar last year’s winner Rainbow Fire should be in their element. Katie Scott’s Gweedore was runner up last season and has won first time out for the last two seasons and has to be on the shortlist with the selection being the Richard Hannon trained Tacarib Bay. His last five starts have all been on the all-weather which include a 6F listed win last November at Newcastle but he’s equally as effective on the turf as he proved when running some good races in defeat in big handicaps last summer. He obviously likes this track as he’s won two of his three visits here and is currently on the same handicap mark as when scoring over course and distance in July 2022. He looks good each way value for a trainer who’s been amongst the winners recently especially if able to find a firm paying four places.   TACARIB BAY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Betfred 1/5 1234   Sandown 3.00 The 1m 7 1/2f Grade 1 Celebration Chase looks a match between Willie Mullins’s Cheltenham flop El Fabiolo and Nicky Henderson’s impressive Aintree winner Jonbon with officially just 5lb between the pair in favour of the former. That pair are rated 6lb (Edwardstone next best) and more better than the other five and in what is a race to saviour can be won by Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon who is unbeaten at the Esher track in three starts here including in this race last year. He looked good over further last time but also has speed and may actually cope with the drying ground better than the Mullins runner who has raced exclusively on soft ground and of course has the poor run at Cheltenham to put behind him. It’s hard to split the pair so at the prices the pick will be J P McManus’s Jonbon who will be ridden by Nico De Boinville.   JONBON 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Sandown 3.35 A bumper maximum field of twenty line up for the 3M 4 1/2F bet365 Gold Cup (hands up if you’re old enough to remember the race as the Whitbread Gold Cup). Current favourite is last year’s winner Kitty’s Light who has to be part of the staking plan having run so well when leading over the last in the Grand National a fortnight ago. The quick turnaround doesn’t worry me as he won the Scottish Grand National and this contest with a week between them last year. He’s 5lb higher than last season but the ground appears to have come right for him and Christian Williams’s eight year old looks sure to be thereabouts. An outsider who I feel is overpriced is Anthony Honeyball’s Sam Brown who is arguably the best handicapped horse in the field as he goes up 4lb in future handicaps for his highly creditable run at Aintree a fortnight ago when runner up to Cruz Control under today’s pilot Freddie Gingell. He’s the oldest horse in the race by two years plus and maybe that’s why he’s been neglected in the betting but he had one of today’s rivals in Kinondo Kwetu just under 7L behind that day and on the same terms is a bigger price. Many others have chances but it’s Kitty’s Light and Sam Brown for me.   KITTY’S LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 SAM BROWN 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Horse? Obsessed sorry seen now ha ha 

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

As im working ...just having a n early look at the weekend racing .....big race of weekend is bet365 gold cup 
Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 
Amirite. 8.9. 10/1 
Sam brown 8.4 33/1 
Le Milos. 8.3 8/1 
Does he know. 8.0 28/1 
A very difficult race to rate tbh as a lot of these have only ran on soft since Xmas and now the ground has changed dramatically it's difficult to know where they will be on the tree ........so I've changed tack slightly... with this race .....I've rated as normal .....then historically it's been very difficult for horses over say 11-5 in this race so that cuts out the bottom 3 .....leaving the top 2 again so that's good enough for me .....I'm not saying the others can't win .....in fact I think Sam brown and does he know look overpriced on select form and I could see them placing at big prices but for me I'm looking for value and the top 2 tick the boxes 
5pt Ew top 2