Fellcrawler

225 Ayr champion hurdle 
Favour and fortune. 9.0 11/2 
First street.  8.9 12.0 Betfair 
These two are a bit clear clear of rest ...I'll try 5pt wins both 😁

It's all profit ......another +35.00 in the kitty 

445 Newmarket 
Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

A poor day yesterday.
Todays top rated is ORAZIO in the 1.50. That was on soft going, it has never run on good going before so I will discount it.
In the same race SIGNIFICANTLY is joint 2nd top rated and also top rated on good going. I have had £1 EW (5 places) at 11/1 with Ladbrokes.
In the 4.45 I have BOLSENA top rated both overall and on todays going. Best price is 11/2 but with a bookie I can't bet with so I've had £2 win at BSP.
In the 3.00 I have THE FOXES and REGAL REALITY joint top rated on both counts. REGAL REALITY is available at higher odds so I will have £2 win at 12/1 with BETMGM.

Wow ....photo between hafeet Alain and Dutch decoy ...gutted I didn't get the winner but forecast and Ew ....I'm actually shocked how the computer found that .....forecast has paid 182.88 ....plus around 20 from Dutch that's 202.88 ....making a total of +437.00 on last three weeks ...jeez 
 

255 Newmarket 
Bopedro. 8.8 10/1 
Dutch decoy.  8.8 16/1 
Hafeet Alain. 8.5 14/1 
Tricky race this one ....I'm not a huge fan of backing older horses and all these are of the older generation but computer is saying to back these even though they haven't got brill form .....gonna be an interesting one ....5pt Ew top 2 .....forecasts all 3 

230 ain't 
Cruz control. 8.9 8/1 
Sam brown.  8.7 18/1
Crebilly.  8.3 
Erne river. 8.1 
5pt Ew top 2 

I had an extra fiver Ew after a read a great write up this morning .....I was hoping for the place but 25/1 is good enough .....get in you beauty 🤩

240 kemp 
Cemhaan has a fairly big rating 8.7 for the class .....he has a tricky race to contend with but at 16/1 I'm prepared to go Ew as he looks very overpriced 
5pts Ew 16/1 willh 4 places 

Shake wins and forecast .....5pt forecasts returns 176.00 ....returns +231.00 ....prob about +380.00 after losses with one race to come 

410 chelt 
Crebilly  8.6 9/2 
Theatre man 8.4 4/1 
Shakeenupharry. 8.1 10/1 
5pt wins all 3 and forecasts 

That's a nice surprise ....returns 205.00

210 chelt 
Judicial law  8.3 40/1 
Monmiral. 8.2 33/1 
Chantry house. 8.2 20/1 
I'll try 5pt Ew all 3 at big prices ....and forecasts 

Adding ..iwilldoit ...Ew to my team ...on account of riders claim 5pts Ew 7/1 

1st and 3 rd

Betfair exchange trophy asc 335 
Altobelli  9.0 11/2  class 91
Luccia 8.8 9/1 class 96 
Nemean. Lion. 8.6 class 92 
Iberico lord. 8.6 class 88 
5pt Ew top 2 
1pt doubles top 2 in all 3 races...12 bets 

Howdens silver cup Ascot 
Victorino. 8.9  11/2 class 97 
Flegmatik.  8.7  12/1 class 88
Blackjack magic. 8.5 class 80 
Larry.  8.2 class 85 
Guitmaker 8.0 class 66 
5pt Ew top 2 
 

Long walk hurdle 
Dashel drasher 9.0 9/1 class 116
Paisley park. 8.9 7/1 class. 108 
Champ 8.5 class 114 
West Balboa 8.3 class 105 +
What a cracker of a race ... Old Vs young ... Experienced against newcomers and throw in champ who hasn't had a run this season and you've got one major puzzle .. for me I'm sticking with top 2 Ew as they've had a run so could have a fitness edge on the soft ground 
5pt Ew top 2 

2nd.        Returns. £42.

Ffos 320 Anyharminasking 16/1
£10 ew  skybet  4pl.

2 out of 3 ....and last one lost in a photo so that's not too shabby ....+27.00 

7.00 chelm 
2 qualifiers 
Lady gazelle. 7.8 6/1 
Jumeirah bridge. 7.4 10/1 
5pt win top rated ...3pt win Jumeirah .....1pt rev forecast 
Strong fav drawn 10 so will be interesting to see how this one pans out 

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 
Today we have 3 races to look at 
630 chelm 
Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 
Waiting game 8.0  4.2 
Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 
So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

Certain Lad @ 18/1 Sandown 15:00 - PLACED 4 - 1/ 5      
Fools Rush In @ 20/1 Chester 13:35 - Lost 4 - 1/ 5      
Call Me Ginger @ 10/1 Chester 16:30 - WIN 4 - 1/ 5      
Indemnify @ 5/1 Sandown 13:50 - Placed 4 - 1/ 5     0.2 e/w L15  not bog Bet365  6pts Invested   Three placed  (one winner) always one lets me down  damn it and not having bog didn't help  but still  near 17pt return.   Return 16.99pts

Certain Lad                                               3 00 San/                 1/40th of a pt ew      25/1
Dashing Roger                                         3 00 San/                  1/40th of a pt ew     33/1
Tis Marvellous                                          2 40 Bev/                  1/40th of a pt win   14/1
Global Spirit                                              5 00 Bev/                  1/40th of a pt ew    20/1
 
 
 
 
P/L   +  170.90 pts