thecurlyone1

Will it never end! I feel myself hurtling towards the grave every time I start another of these threads! 
Kev still at it so here we go with 1 point on QPR 0 AH cards v Blackburn at 1.9 with 365 (essentially QPR most cards with the tie as a push).

Here's my take for what it's worth, as an only occasional racing punter and someone who only follows other people's selections on an ad hoc basis. (I don't have the time or inclination to follow anyone else where it entails backing several selections on a daily basis but I'm interested in seeing how any thread does where someone is actually willing to run it for a decent number of bets.) 
Selections - credit where it's due, the thread's off to a decent start and the selections would appear to be profitable regardless of any "noise" relating to commission or the staking plan. I'd like to see where we are after 10 cycles in terms of a worthwhile sample size.
  Commission - I have to agree with the consensus here, the results should categorically factor in commission at 2% which is the minimum most people are likely to pay. I'd suggest that should be done from now on. BSP is a perfectly valid measure for the P/L but it makes no sense to then choose to ignore commission, especially when the staking plan has such specific 50% and 100% targets. The results would have so much more "real world" validity just for the simple step of making the appropriate deduction.
  Staking plan - I'm not sure of the merits of such a specific approach to staking but it obviously introduces an element of chance when it comes to how much you end up winning or losing on a particularly good or bad day. I think it's valid to expect a comparison to level stakes. What I'd like to see is, at the end of each cycle, a statement of how much the average stake would have returned if applied as a flat stake to every bet, to compare to the return from the staking plan, e.g. if the average stake is £45 would you have done better or worse just having £45 on every selection. Surely you would want to know if the staking plan is adding value or not? I'd be interested to see how the first four cycles would have done if you'd just had the average total stake on every selection.

If my sources are accurate I'm getting penalties awarded down from 687 to 585 so just shy of a 15% reduction in penalties awarded and scored. The conversion rate is steady at around 80.5%. That's quite a big drop!
I'm inclined to think there's some money to be had by laying the penalty taken market but it's hard to work out the "right" price to offer. Big swings from one season to the next don't help!

Some stats rating to bookings markets. I've added Portugal to the mix here given it's higher average.
League Games Yellow Red Av points Av. cards Points/card Fouls pg Fouls/Tackles Pen pg Refs used Portugal 306 1740 120 66.67 6.08 10.97 29.93 0.99 0.35 25 Spain 380 1897 92 55.97 5.23 10.69 26.48 0.85 0.35 20 Italy 380 1696 93 50.75 4.71 10.78 26.68 0.88 0.37 45 France 380 1429 103 44.38 4.03 11.01 23.43 0.69 0.32 26 EPL 380 1299 43 37.01 3.53 10.48 20.23 0.62 0.27 22 Germany 306 1055 24 36.44 3.53 10.33 23.78 0.74 0.28 24 Total 1826 8061 451 50.32 4.66 10.71 25.09 0.80 0.32 27.00 Nothing that really surprises me in the points averages or the rankings. France has a higher ratio of reds to yellows hence the highest points per card number. I was quite surprised by how many different refs got a game in Italy! 
Not surprising that the top 3 leagues have the most fouls per game and highest fouls/tackles ratio. (Those numbers will be slightly off as the data had 1 game missing in both Germany and Portugal.)
In terms of real world betting observations, as I only ever sell bookings where the price is over 50 I haven't had many bets in France, Germany or England. For the top 3 my historical numbers look like this (not just last season).
Spain: 256 bets (140 wins and 116) losses, 69 points loss (biggest ever loss 98 points) - average sell price = 59.05
Thoughts - biggest sample size, slight overall loss (less than the single biggest loss), virtually break even so far, might as well carry on and see if it improves (still a small sample in the grand scheme of things)
Italy: 162 bets (99 wins and 63 losses), 542 points profit (biggest ever loss 81 points) - average sell price = 56.52
Thoughts - carry on, obviously!
Portugal: 24 bets (11 wins and 13 losses), 153 points loss (biggest ever loss 77 points) - average sell price = 67.79
Thoughts - carry on for now as it's such a small sample size. Not that many games get priced up in this league anyway.
I suppose I could work out a "magic number" for France/Germany/England e.g. where the price is at least x% higher than the league average but I'm not sure it's worth the effort (bookings overall is only a marginally profitable market). Maybe something to paper trade for a while come the new season.

Bank falls to €439 so we refuel back to €1,000 for tomorrow and start a new cycle. Loss of €561 taken.
Bank is €1,000; stake is €30.

I'll start off by saying this may well be of no interest to anyone other than me and I'm not sure if this is the best place to post it (it's not really "chat or banter" and isn't specific to a single league so it doesn't seem to fit in the footy section) but here's my thoughts on some stats I've been looking at across the "big 5" leagues.
Average goals per league fairly steady at 2.81 compared to 2.8 last season. Some ups and downs in the various leagues but nothing likely to be significant.
  Penalties scored down from 553 to 471 (10.8% of all goals to 9.2%). I assume that's down to less being awarded rather than poorer conversion but I'll look for the pens awarded numbers. Maybe things are settling down VAR wise.
  Own goals fairly steady, up from 155 to 161 or 3.03% to 3.14%.
  Goals scored by subs up from 666 to 707 or 13.02% to 13.77%. Across the 2 seasons it's only been 9.16% in the Premier League (3 subs max) as opposed to 14.49% in the other 4 leagues (5 subs max). So we can expect an increase in England next season when the 5 sub rule is adopted. Obviously relevant to anytime goalscorer betting in terms of less goals being scored by the starting 11 when the number of subs is increased.
  The % of goals that had an assist was up from 66.8% to 68.2%, largely down to less penalties being scored. If you exclude own goals and penalties the % of "assisted" goals is fairly steady at 77.8% from 77.6%. So an average of 2.81 goals per games but only 1.92 assists. I have a strong feeling that most punters don't appreciate that gulf which makes the anytime assists market even more profitable for the bookies that the anytime goalscorer. I'm still tilting at backing in the goalscorer market (we'll see how that goes next season) but am also happily a seller at bigger prices. I've learnt my lesson with regard to assists though. Never a buyer or a backer be!
  Will probably look at the bookings related stats next.

I tried searching for that Q&A session but couldn’t find it. My recollection was that he doesn’t have a high volume of bets simply because he thinks that it’s rare for a demonstrably wrong price to be offered.
I did find a tweet summarising his end of year performance that tallied exactly with my numbers above, which may be a first! I think I usually miss at least one selection over the course of a season. It’s his 26th consecutive season showing a profit. The fact that they don’t publish the returns for most of the other tipsters no doubt speaks volumes.

Well, most of the bets tend to be AH lines with 365 where I’m allowed to stake enough to win £2.50! I usually take the closest regular handicap line for a bit of a top up but that can be a slightly worse price or terms (e.g. landing on the line is a loser instead of a push). So it’s a case of already being limited but getting the bit on I can to make the whole process worthwhile. I’m secretly hoping Kev retires so I can knock it on the head but I’ll no doubt go again if Kev’s got another season in him.

Very impressive 

Better late than never! 9 years' level stakes data and 6 to advised stakes as well.
  Bets P/L Yield Adv Stake Adv Return Adv P/L Adv Yield 2013/14 38 10.27 27.03%         2014/15 34 8.81 25.91%         2015/16 37 4.83 13.04%         2016/17 35 7.64 21.84% 23.50 27.96 4.46 18.96% 2017/18 33 13.55 41.06% 34.50 49.00 14.50 42.03% 2018/19 36 7.11 19.75% 33.00 41.21 8.21 24.88% 2019/20 28 5.61 20.04% 24.00 28.61 4.61 19.21% 2020/21 30 9.05 30.17% 29.50 39.05 9.55 32.37% 2021/22 35 8.33 23.79% 34.50 43.33 8.83 25.59% Overall 306 75.20 24.57% 179.00 229.15 50.15 28.02%                    

After Saturday the bank drops to €534. Need to get some positive results today, if the bank closes on under €500 today we'll be reloading to €1,000.

06/20/2022 13:05 CHEPSTOW Gilbert 06/20/2022 14:10 CHEPSTOW Agapanther 06/20/2022 14:45 CHEPSTOW Hope Probe 06/20/2022 15:15 CHEPSTOW Stone Circle 06/20/2022 15:30 SOUTHWELL Kings Creek 06/20/2022 15:45 CHEPSTOW Land Of Eagles 06/20/2022 16:15 CHEPSTOW Mutara 06/20/2022 18:05 WINDSOR Hello Me  
Stake is €16.03

Was no selections today;
Bank €651

06/18/2022 14:07 NEWMARKET (JULY) Amanda Hug'N'Kiss 06/18/2022 14:17 PERTH Castletown 06/18/2022 14:24 AYR Aasser 06/18/2022 14:30 ASCOT Legend Of Xanadu 06/18/2022 14:47 REDCAR Hostelry 06/18/2022 15:22 REDCAR Wizard D'Amour 06/18/2022 15:27 PERTH Lucky Flight 06/18/2022 16:07 PERTH Forgot To Ask 06/18/2022 16:54 AYR Highlight Reel 06/18/2022 17:09 NEWMARKET (JULY) Crimson Sand 06/18/2022 17:13 REDCAR Cotai Class 06/18/2022 17:23 PERTH Go Bob Go 06/18/2022 19:10 HAYDOCK Coco Jack  
Stake €19.53

There was one more that I forgot to add to the spreadsheet, sorry guys! I only just saw it on the Betfair list with a bet matched and I checked to see who I had backed but couldn't find it. 
Backed Milojevic at 2.56 who is about to win the first set. I have attached a screenshot so I am not just after timing, i haven't forgotten to add it to the spreadsheet before and will double check going forward. 

Nice results yesterday with Berly Burton bringing in the nicest touch off a BSP of 7.8.
Bank is €899

06/14/2022 13:35 STRATFORD Eva's Diva 06/14/2022 14:20 THIRSK Danni California 06/14/2022 14:20 THIRSK Let Her Loose 06/14/2022 14:45 STRATFORD Glimpse Of Gold 06/14/2022 15:20 STRATFORD Arbennig 06/14/2022 16:05 THIRSK Tamaska 06/14/2022 17:15 THIRSK Lost My Sock 06/14/2022 17:50 BRIGHTON Al Khazneh 06/14/2022 18:23 BRIGHTON Nigg Bay 06/14/2022 18:45 BEVERLEY Master Richard 06/14/2022 19:15 BEVERLEY Gracelands Girl 06/14/2022 19:53 BRIGHTON Poetic Force 06/14/2022 20:15 BEVERLEY Irv  
Stake €26.97

We'd a slightly mixed day yesterday; slight loss but should have been a nice profit; Secret Minstal had the 17:25 at Haydock won off a BSP of 5.31; traded right into 1.15 but was beaten on the line.
Bank is €930.

06/10/2022 13:00 CHEPSTOW Bbob Alula 06/10/2022 14:00 YORK Sagauteur 06/10/2022 14:00 YORK Hotspur Harry 06/10/2022 14:30 YORK Explicit 06/10/2022 14:50 SANDOWN Belhaven 06/10/2022 15:00 YORK Ey Up It's Maggie 06/10/2022 15:10 CHEPSTOW Fossos 06/10/2022 15:20 SANDOWN Jewel In My Crown 06/10/2022 16:20 CHEPSTOW Blue Hero 06/10/2022 17:15 GOODWOOD Latifolia 06/10/2022 17:41 NEWTON ABBOT Bagan 06/10/2022 17:49 GOODWOOD Sir Min 06/10/2022 18:51 NEWTON ABBOT Leapaway 06/10/2022 19:26 NEWTON ABBOT Imperial Joe 06/10/2022 19:34 GOODWOOD Mercian Hymn 06/10/2022 20:09 GOODWOOD Melody Of Life  
Stake is €27.90.

No commission is taken; prices are recorded using BSP so there's standard historic price record but how/what prices people are actually using is up to themselves. 

Fully results for Cycle 3 are below; 185 selections; 10th May to 7th June.

  CYCLE 3             €1,000 1 05/10/2022 13:15 CHEPSTOW Granary Queen N 8.53 -€30.00 €30.00 €970 2 05/10/2022 13:30 SEDGEFIELD First Revolution Y 3.55 €76.50 €30.00 €1,047 3 05/10/2022 14:30 SEDGEFIELD Eskendash N 9.8 -€30.00 €30.00 €1,017 4 05/10/2022 14:40 BEVERLEY Pure Charmer N 2.78 -€30.00 €30.00 €987 5 05/10/2022 17:20 BEVERLEY Tamarama Y 1.95 €28.50 €30.00 €1,015 6 05/11/2022 13:00 NEWTON ABBOT Jean Genie N 2.47 -€30.45 €30.45 €985 7 05/11/2022 13:10 WORCESTER Translink N 5.25 -€30.45 €30.45 €954 8 05/11/2022 16:10 YORK Mojomaker N 6.51 -€30.45 €30.45 €924 9 05/11/2022 17:30 BATH Symbol Of Hope N 9.83 -€30.45 €30.45 €893 10 05/11/2022 18:40 PERTH Brandy McQueen Y 6.92 €180.26 €30.45 €1,073 11 05/11/2022 19:00 BATH Eight Of Diamonds N 2.93 -€30.45 €30.45 €1,043 12 05/11/2022 19:10 PERTH Monsieur Co N 11.45 -€30.45 €30.45 €1,013 13 05/11/2022 19:30 BATH Delahoussaye N 4.55 -€30.45 €30.45 €982 14 05/11/2022 20:00 BATH Plansina N 7.72 -€30.45 €30.45 €952 15 05/11/2022 20:40 PERTH Petite Rhapsody N 6.4 -€30.45 €30.45 €921 16 05/12/2022 13:00 SALISBURY Fangorn N 2.7 -€27.64 €27.64 €894 17 05/12/2022 14:25 YORK Lilac Road Y 8.9 €218.33 €27.64 €1,112 18 05/12/2022 16:55 PERTH Sword Of Fate Y 10.14 €252.60 €27.64 €1,365 19 05/12/2022 17:10 FONTWELL Mothill Y 1.18 €4.97 €27.64 €1,369 20 05/12/2022 17:25 NEWMARKET Lucia Joy N 3.95 -€27.64 €27.64 €1,342 21 05/12/2022 19:45 NEWMARKET Haunted Dream N 5.29 -€27.64 €27.64 €1,314 22 05/13/2022 16:20 NEWBURY March Moon N 4.68 -€39.43 €39.43 €1,275 23 05/13/2022 16:35 NEWMARKET Brazen Bolt Y 3.07 €81.61 €39.43 €1,356 24 05/13/2022 17:50 AINTREE Dublin Four N 6.05 -€39.43 €39.43 €1,317 25 05/13/2022 19:55 HAMILTON Ballyare N 25.13 -€39.43 €39.43 €1,278 26 05/13/2022 20:55 HAMILTON Stronsay N 7.4 -€39.43 €39.43 €1,238 27 05/14/2022 15:30 THIRSK Mandobi Y 1.33 €12.26 €37.14 €1,250 28 05/14/2022 16:05 THIRSK Intrinsic Bond N 5.16 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,213 29 05/14/2022 16:40 THIRSK Boardman Y 2.64 €60.92 €37.14 €1,274 30 05/14/2022 17:04 NEWBURY Notre Belle Bete N 2.62 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,237 31 05/14/2022 17:11 THIRSK Eeh Bah Gum N 13.64 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,200 32 05/14/2022 17:15 UTTOXETER Hidden Heroics Y 1.18 €6.69 €37.14 €1,207 33 05/14/2022 17:20 NEWMARKET Rolfe Rembrandt N 4.9 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,169 34 05/14/2022 17:50 UTTOXETER That Ole Chestnut N 5.99 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,132 35 05/14/2022 18:20 UTTOXETER Eglantine Du Seuil Y 6.74 €213.20 €37.14 €1,345 36 05/14/2022 18:35 DONCASTER Definitive Force N 4.2 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,308 37 05/14/2022 18:50 UTTOXETER Miss Jeanne Moon N 3.22 -€37.14 €37.14 €1,271 38 05/14/2022 20:10 DONCASTER Fresh Hope Y 5.06 €150.80 €37.14 €1,422 39 05/16/2022 14:30 CARLISLE Ghathanfar N 7.6 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,379 40 05/16/2022 15:40 CARLISLE Manaslu Y 2.52 €64.84 €42.66 €1,444 41 05/16/2022 15:55 REDCAR Khabib N 5.2 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,401 42 05/16/2022 16:45 LEICESTER Confederation N 2.33 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,359 43 05/16/2022 16:50 CARLISLE Ba Na Hills N 3.36 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,316 44 05/16/2022 17:20 LEICESTER Ardat N 17.5 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,274 45 05/16/2022 17:40 WINDSOR Betweenthesticks N 7.78 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,231 46 05/16/2022 18:20 LEICESTER Contingency Fee N 3.37 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,188 47 05/16/2022 18:50 LEICESTER Aryaah N 7.40 -€42.66 €42.66 €1,146 48 05/17/2022 15:10 NOTTINGHAM Thunder Queen N 7.00 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,111 49 05/17/2022 16:00 BRIGHTON Leroy Leroy N 3.05 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,077 50 05/17/2022 16:10 NOTTINGHAM Pink Carnation Y 3.61 €89.70 €34.37 €1,167 51 05/17/2022 17:47 HUNTINGDON Lady Reset Y 1.64 €21.99 €34.37 €1,188 52 05/17/2022 18:03 HEXHAM Cool Country N 2.93 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,154 53 05/17/2022 18:33 HEXHAM Clear White Light N 2.58 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,120 54 05/17/2022 19:33 HEXHAM Palm Beach N 3.84 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,085 55 05/17/2022 19:47 HUNTINGDON Flashing Glance N 4.55 -€34.37 €34.37 €1,051 56 05/18/2022 15:30 WARWICK Sofia's Rock N 3.00 -€31.53 €31.53 €1,020 57 05/18/2022 16:05 WARWICK Regaby N 15.28 -€31.53 €31.53 €988 58 05/18/2022 16:05 WARWICK Great D'Ange N 2.66 -€31.53 €31.53 €956 59 05/18/2022 16:17 YARMOUTH Tamaska Y 7.43 €202.74 €31.53 €1,159 60 05/18/2022 17:22 YARMOUTH Arlo's Sunshine Y 6.20 €163.96 €31.53 €1,323 61 05/18/2022 19:50 SOUTHWELL Kings Creek Y 7.93 €218.51 €31.53 €1,542 62 05/19/2022 13:35 MARKET RASEN Major Snugfit N 13.50 -€46.25 €46.25 €1,495 63 05/20/2022 13:35 GOODWOOD Lawful Command Y 6.09 €228.35 €44.86 €1,724 64 05/20/2022 14:10 GOODWOOD Makinmedoit N 17.80 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,679 65 05/20/2022 14:20 BATH Commander Straker Y 1.84 €37.68 €44.86 €1,717 66 05/20/2022 15:20 GOODWOOD Natural World N 7.40 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,672 67 05/20/2022 17:15 WORCESTER Serjeant Painter N 5.30 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,627 68 05/20/2022 17:20 CATTERICK Spanish Angel N 6.16 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,582 69 05/20/2022 20:03 WORCESTER Tango Echo Charlie N 3.51 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,537 70 05/20/2022 20:35 WORCESTER Rock On Rita N 4.57 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,492 71 05/20/2022 20:43 CATTERICK Merry Secret N 8.71 -€44.86 €44.86 €1,447 72 05/21/2022 13:53 MUSSELBURGH Eruption N 5.30 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,404 73 05/21/2022 15:03 MUSSELBURGH Jungle Time N 3.11 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,361 74 05/21/2022 16:07 YORK Looking For Lynda N 4.42 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,317 75 05/21/2022 16:48 MUSSELBURGH Aquamas N 3.70 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,274 76 05/21/2022 17:23 MUSSELBURGH Blackcurrent N 4.60 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,230 77 05/21/2022 19:00 STRATFORD Dogon N 3.81 -€43.42 €43.42 €1,187 78 05/21/2022 20:30 STRATFORD Noahthirtytwored Y 4.60 €156.32 €43.42 €1,343 79 05/24/2022 13:15 BATH Blue Hero Y 5.16 €167.63 €40.30 €1,511 80 05/24/2022 15:02 SOUTHWELL Overtougeorge Y 3.46 €99.13 €40.30 €1,610 81 05/25/2022 13:40 BEVERLEY Blackcurrent Y 4.74 €180.64 €48.30 €1,791 82 05/25/2022 14:00 NEWTON ABBOT Sizing Cusimano Y 3.45 €118.33 €48.30 €1,909 83 05/25/2022 14:30 NEWTON ABBOT Glengeever Y 2.28 €61.82 €48.30 €1,971 84 05/25/2022 14:40 BEVERLEY Imenso N 5.40 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,922 85 05/25/2022 14:50 HAMILTON Inver Park Y 1.74 €35.74 €48.30 €1,958 86 05/25/2022 15:00 NEWTON ABBOT Imperial Joe Y 3.65 €127.99 €48.30 €2,086 87 05/25/2022 15:10 BEVERLEY Yanifer N 7.00 -€48.30 €48.30 €2,038 88 05/25/2022 15:20 HAMILTON The New Marwan N 4.89 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,990 89 05/25/2022 17:00 WARWICK Nickelsonthedime N 2.94 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,941 90 05/25/2022 17:55 RIPON Copper Mountain N 6.80 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,893 91 05/25/2022 18:05 WARWICK Leylak Y 2.51 €72.93 €48.30 €1,966 92 05/25/2022 18:25 RIPON High Security N 3.78 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,918 93 05/25/2022 19:25 RIPON Gibside N 4.17 -€48.30 €48.30 €1,869 94 05/26/2022 13:10 HAYDOCK Dogged N 3.74 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,813 95 05/26/2022 13:30 YARMOUTH Zara's Return N 82.10 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,757 96 05/26/2022 13:50 RIPON Smart Connection N 2.61 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,701 97 05/26/2022 14:20 RIPON Dragons Will Rise N 19.63 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,645 98 05/26/2022 14:40 HAYDOCK Lethal Levi Y 4.95 €221.51 €56.08 €1,867 99 05/26/2022 15:00 YARMOUTH Flower Of Thunder N 2.48 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,810 100 05/26/2022 15:30 YARMOUTH Dandy Maestro N 2.48 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,754 101 05/26/2022 16:15 HAYDOCK Autumn Festival N 3.79 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,698 102 05/26/2022 16:25 RIPON Birkenhead N 1.50 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,642 103 05/26/2022 18:15 SANDOWN Democracy Dilemma N 11.76 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,586 104 05/26/2022 19:00 CARLISLE Fiorina N 2.31 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,530 105 05/26/2022 19:35 CARLISLE Detective N 2.40 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,474 106 05/26/2022 20:35 SANDOWN Two Tempting N 7.10 -€56.08 €56.08 €1,418 107 05/27/2022 13:00 BRIGHTON Kingsbury N 24.09 -€42.54 €42.54 €1,375 108 05/28/2022 13:30 BEVERLEY All Go N 6.10 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,334 109 05/28/2022 14:01 CHESTER Doux Esprit N 6.40 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,293 110 05/28/2022 15:04 CATTERICK Rebel At Dawn N 4.20 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,252 111 05/28/2022 15:30 HAYDOCK Spycatcher N 8.80 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,210 112 05/28/2022 15:45 CHESTER Boardman Y 2.44 €59.41 €41.26 €1,270 113 05/28/2022 16:05 HAYDOCK Nationwide N 7.00 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,228 114 05/28/2022 16:14 CATTERICK Yasmin From York Y 3.15 €88.71 €41.26 €1,317 115 05/28/2022 17:50 FFOS LAS Leading Theatre Y 1.76 €31.36 €41.26 €1,349 116 05/28/2022 18:10 SALISBURY Regal Envoy Y 3.21 €91.18 €41.26 €1,440 117 05/28/2022 19:15 SALISBURY Wiseacre N 3.60 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,398 118 05/28/2022 20:00 FFOS LAS Chasamax N 4.25 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,357 119 05/28/2022 20:45 SALISBURY Eight Of Diamonds N 4.20 -€41.26 €41.26 €1,316 120 05/30/2022 13:15 LINGFIELD Pledge Of Honour N 13.50 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,276 121 05/30/2022 13:25 REDCAR Bara Lacha N 7.22 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,237 122 05/30/2022 14:00 REDCAR Glorious Angel Y 2.52 €60.01 €39.48 €1,297 123 05/30/2022 15:55 LINGFIELD Pablo Del Pueblo Y 2.80 €71.06 €39.48 €1,368 124 05/30/2022 16:40 REDCAR Mac Ailey N 7.40 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,329 125 05/30/2022 17:30 CARTMEL Liffeydale Dreamer Y 2.68 €66.32 €39.48 €1,395 126 05/30/2022 18:40 WINDSOR Get It Y 3.10 €82.90 €39.48 €1,478 127 05/30/2022 19:30 AYR Lady Celia N 7.36 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,438 128 05/30/2022 19:40 WINDSOR Gliding Bay N 13.19 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,399 129 05/30/2022 20:05 AYR Liangel Hope N 3.47 -€39.48 €39.48 €1,359 130 05/31/2022 14:50 BRIGHTON Bear To Dream Y 3.61 €106.44 €40.78 €1,466 131 05/31/2022 15:00 LEICESTER Dual Identity N 3.71 -€40.78 €40.78 €1,425 132 05/31/2022 15:30 LEICESTER Letter Of The Law Y 4.32 €135.39 €40.78 €1,560 133 05/31/2022 16:00 LEICESTER Golden Spice Y 2.62 €66.06 €40.78 €1,626 134 05/31/2022 16:10 NEWBURY Galiac N 3.88 -€40.78 €40.78 €1,586 135 05/31/2022 16:30 LEICESTER Thunder Queen N 4.82 -€40.78 €40.78 €1,545 136 05/31/2022 19:22 THIRSK Just Another N 9.20 -€40.78 €40.78 €1,504 137 06/01/2022 13:20 NOTTINGHAM Priscilla's Wish N 4.20 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,459 138 06/01/2022 13:45 NEWTON ABBOT First Quest N 3.25 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,414 139 06/01/2022 14:10 CARTMEL Hey Bob Y 5.64 €209.37 €45.12 €1,623 140 06/01/2022 15:30 NOTTINGHAM Princess Shabnam N 1.93 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,578 141 06/01/2022 15:50 NEWTON ABBOT Our Colossus N 3.75 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,533 142 06/01/2022 17:35 RIPON Come On John N 3.11 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,488 143 06/01/2022 18:05 RIPON Bay Breeze Y 2.78 €80.32 €45.12 €1,568 144 06/01/2022 20:10 RIPON Albegone N 3.50 -€45.12 €45.12 €1,523 145 06/02/2022 13:07 UTTOXETER Fountains Chief Y 2.80 €82.25 €45.69 €1,605 146 06/02/2022 13:35 LEICESTER Nusa Dua N 3.22 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,560 147 06/02/2022 13:42 UTTOXETER Clear On Top N 6.02 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,514 148 06/02/2022 14:10 LEICESTER Big Little Lie N 11.99 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,468 149 06/02/2022 14:45 LEICESTER Convection N 3.40 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,423 150 06/02/2022 15:27 UTTOXETER Howdilyoudo N 4.96 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,377 151 06/02/2022 15:46 HAMILTON Haven Lady Y 2.07 €48.89 €45.69 €1,426 152 06/02/2022 15:55 LEICESTER Mostly Sunny Y 8.40 €338.12 €45.69 €1,764 153 06/02/2022 16:20 HAMILTON Rose Bandit N 8.80 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,718 154 06/02/2022 16:25 LEICESTER Coase N 6.00 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,672 155 06/02/2022 17:20 FFOS LAS Joyful Kit N 2.43 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,627 156 06/02/2022 20:30 FFOS LAS Mac Be Lucky N 3.08 -€45.69 €45.69 €1,581 157 06/03/2022 13:00 HUNTINGDON Mr Yeats N 4.02 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,534 158 06/03/2022 13:35 HUNTINGDON Galahad Threepwood N 2.42 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,486 159 06/03/2022 14:19 CATTERICK Rockprincess N 2.90 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,439 160 06/03/2022 15:29 CATTERICK Music Society Y 2.18 €55.97 €47.43 €1,495 161 06/03/2022 15:55 HUNTINGDON Guidedbythescience N 3.08 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,447 162 06/03/2022 16:45 CATTERICK Gnat Alley N 2.42 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,400 163 06/03/2022 17:10 EPSOM Dawn Of Liberation N 3.01 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,352 164 06/03/2022 17:15 CATTERICK Mr Trevor N 7.25 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,305 165 06/03/2022 17:21 GOODWOOD Uncle Dick N 5.15 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,258 166 06/03/2022 18:20 BATH Peerless N 16.18 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,210 167 06/03/2022 18:27 GOODWOOD Youllovemewheniwin N 5.20 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,163 168 06/03/2022 19:02 GOODWOOD Adjudicator N 3.58 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,115 169 06/03/2022 19:30 BATH Zulu Girl N 7.98 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,068 170 06/03/2022 20:12 GOODWOOD Sea Of Charm N 8.97 -€47.43 €47.43 €1,020 171 06/04/2022 13:36 MUSSELBURGH Al Qaasim Y 4.69 €112.96 €30.61 €1,133 172 06/04/2022 14:11 MUSSELBURGH Explicit Y 2.28 €39.18 €30.61 €1,173 173 06/04/2022 14:31 DONCASTER Gift Of Raaj Y 3.73 €83.57 €30.61 €1,256 174 06/04/2022 15:06 DONCASTER Salvator Mundi Y 10.68 €296.34 €30.61 €1,552 175 06/04/2022 15:10 EPSOM Modern News N 4.12 -€30.61 €30.61 €1,522 176 06/04/2022 18:05 CHEPSTOW Red Walls N 5.84 -€30.61 €30.61 €1,491 177 06/04/2022 20:35 CHEPSTOW Boy George Y 10.00 €275.52 €30.61 €1,767 178 06/07/2022 14:30 BRIGHTON On The Nose N 3.85 -€53.00 €53.00 €1,714 179 06/07/2022 14:45 SALISBURY Cabinet Of Clowns Y 2.70 €90.11 €53.00 €1,804 180 06/07/2022 15:15 SALISBURY Granary Queen N 8.08 -€53.00 €53.00 €1,751 181 06/07/2022 15:30 BRIGHTON Delahoussaye N 6.93 -€53.00 €53.00 €1,698 182 06/07/2022 16:05 BRIGHTON Sly Madam Y 10.10 €482.33 €53.00 €2,180 183 06/07/2022 16:20 SALISBURY Havaila N 3.88 -€53.00 €53.00 €2,127 184 06/07/2022 17:15 WETHERBY Galaxy Gazer N 7.13 -€53.00 €53.00 €2,074 185 06/07/2022 19:35 WETHERBY Vindobala N 2.55 -€53.00 €53.00 €2,021  

Has commission been taken from your figures?
They differ from mine to the tune of Betfair commission of 2%.

The selections are system based so I am looking for set criteria across all the races (this would include several factors; eg past performance of all horses at that track, over that distance; recent form; price vs win probability would be key then on a comparison basis to all runners in the field).
As I mentioned at the outset the selections are from what I call numerous micro systems; one's that don't have selections every day but when you look across all the systems combined there are selections most days (none on Sundays). There may be better ways to stake these but from what I've seen the double/half bank using a fixed % of bank per day seems to fit reasonably well with the combined strike rate. Past performance going well doesn't mean the next cycle will but testing over the last 4 years has shown that there's a very realistic expectation that this will continue to be profitable. At this stage we have circa €1,500 banked; that means we can "afford" to have three losing cycles back to back and still be effectively breakeven. I think this is an extremely positive situation for us to be in.
Its by no means definite but assuming we continue in the same vein profits wise it is likely that these will move to a subscription model of sorts. People would pay per cycle; if a cycle wasn't profitable they would get free entry into the next cycle etc etc. The plan would be to increase the starting bank once the banked profits are reasonable. So instead of maybe starting at €1,000; we would move to €1,500; where we'd have banked €500 of the previous cycles profits and effectively reinvest €500 into the current one and look to compound that money that cycle.

If you click on "Betting Systems & Strategy Forum" against "Win Backing System" it shows 38.9k views.
There are approximately 30 posts per page and we are on page 20 so that's roughly 600 posts.
So this would indicate that there are roughly 65 people following.

Cycle 4
Bank is €1,000

06/08/2022 13:18 YARMOUTH Priscilla's Wish 06/08/2022 13:35 FONTWELL Caspers Court 06/08/2022 14:45 FONTWELL Limelighter 06/08/2022 15:38 YARMOUTH Le Reveur 06/08/2022 17:50 HAMILTON How Bizarre 06/08/2022 19:50 HAMILTON Westmorian  
Stake is €30

Last selection today came third so Cycle 3 closes out at €2,021
Cycle 4 starts in the morning.

Regardless of how our last selection today runs we'd doubled the bank again ?
So this means;
Cycle 1 was -€579
Cycle 2 was +€1,022
Cycle 3 will be at least +€1,021
Boom ?
Cycle 4 will start again in the morning.

Bank is now €1,767
Here's todays selections;

06/07/2022 14:30 BRIGHTON On The Nose 06/07/2022 14:45 SALISBURY Cabinet Of Clowns 06/07/2022 15:15 SALISBURY Granary Queen 06/07/2022 15:30 BRIGHTON Delahoussaye 06/07/2022 16:05 BRIGHTON Sly Madam 06/07/2022 16:20 SALISBURY Havaila 06/07/2022 17:15 WETHERBY Galaxy Gazer 06/07/2022 19:35 WETHERBY Vindobala  
Stake is €53.00

So ends another season. The level stakes return was +8.327 points with an ROI of 23.79% (all the bets were to 1 point bar a single 0.5 point bet back in January). If I can find the spreadsheet with the historical returns in I'll post an update in the week.
My records tell me I've won just over £97 following these selections this season. Would have been more if I wasn't usually limited but still my most profitable category of fixed odds bet for the year to date!