Simao BVB
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Posts posted by Simao BVB
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Re: Erzgebirge Aue v 1860 München
That's not right. Aue is missing only right back Le Beau (18 app), who is suspended after red card in their last game vs Fortuna Dusseldorf and not important Stephan. Le Beau will be probably replaced by Schlitte. So not a big missing. 1860 Muenchen is missing winger Aigner (23app, 9 goals, 5 assists) because of virus, another winger Halfar (12, 3, 3), Kaiser (10,1) and Schwarz. It is also worth mentioning that Aue has not lost to 1860 Muenchen yet in their own stadium. This is very important games for both teams as Aue is facing relegation battle and 1860 Muenchen is still hoping to gain promotion. 1860 Muenchen has massive game during the weekend against Furth and with 1860 trainer Maurer and some players already talking about that game i think they're not really focused for this one. Just a feeling. Aue is playing better with new coach K. Baumann and because of that i think there is some value in Aue +0AH with 2.30 odds at William Hill.Injuries & suspensions Erzgebirge Aue: Stephan, Kempe, Kocer 1860 München: Kaiser, B. Schwarz, D. Halfar, Wood, Bülow, Feick, Schindler, Aigner Pick 1X or 1 -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Regarding Chelsea - Napoli game, first important fact is that Napoli don't have to push forward, they will play their most beloved game of deadly counter attacks with their best front trio of Cavani, Lavezzi and Hamsik. Even if they will trail by one, they will still sit back and try to punish Chelsea on the counter. Yes Napoli is in great form recently, but also morale in Chelsea is lifted after two wins with a clean sheet since Di Matteo took charge, of course opposition was not breath taking in Birmingham and Stoke, but wins are wins. Chelsea is definitely better team potential wise. I don't know if it's worth mentioning but Napoli has important game in Serie A coming up against Udinese, which can give them a boost of participating in Champions league also next year or a huge set back for that goal. Napoli's defence in their last game vs Cagliari was abysmal and they will need to vastly improve their performance. It's difficult to find something as this can go both ways, but i find some value in Chelsea -1 AH as they need to win with 2 goals or more, with a safety of wining just with one, which will also make Napoli happy. Chelsea -1 AH 2.30 PINNACLE I don't like anything so far in Real Madrid - CSKA game, but as lazynko mentioned Messi scored five, Gomez four, Ronaldo would want to follow definitely.
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Re: La Liga - March 17 -19 Getafe - Real Sociedad: Both teams coming after good wins in last round. Interesting game which can go both ways i think. Granada - Sporting Gijon: No bet for now. Zaragoza - Osasuna: Another very important game for Zaragoza, they manage to win last home game vs Villarreal in dying seconds. Can they do it again? Osasuna is great at home and not that great as a visitor, but they're fighting for historic participation in European competitions. Sevilla always look like a good match-up for Real and Barca as they're playing open football and they just don't know how to park the bus like many other teams do. It all depends on Barca motivation for this one. Rayo Vallecano - Betis - just one word - GOALS. Levante - Villarreal. Levante is looking tired after great season so far and their ageing squad and Villarreal need points, but sometimes that isn't enough. Mallorca - Atletico Madrid: in past seasons and in this one before Diego Simeone was put at the helm of Atletico i will be looking towards Mallorca win, but now i'm more on Atletico side, only thing that puts me off at the moment is their midweek game in Turkey agaisnt Besiktas. Bilbao - Valencia: Bilbao really got a monster schedule at the moment, but they still manage to pull it off with almost no rotation. Valencia on the other side is always rotating. They both got important midweek games in Europa League and this is another one of huge importance for Europa or Champions league place. Real Madrid - Malaga: Another good match-up for the giant from Madrid. Malaga is attacking team, so goals and handicap on Real Madrid. Espanyol - Racing: I see no further than win for Espanyol at the moment, but will need to dig deeper. Good luck to all
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Re: Bundesliga - March 16-18 Hoffenheim was torn apart by Bayern in their last game and will be interesting to see if that loss had any effect on them. Stuttgart somewhat disappointed in their last game vs Kaiserslauter only managed 0-0 draw at home, but were a lot better than guests. So they have a nice price for this visit at Hoffenheim. Nurnberg - Wolfsburg i think with a way the teams are playing, under seems like a good option. Leverkusen - Gladbach: No bet for me. Borussia Dortmund - Werder looks like an over. Augsburg - Mainz another over. Both teams has some goals in them. Hamburg - Freiburg. A must win game for Hamburg, but will they pulled it off. Still need a bit of research. Hertha - Bayern. Bayern is flying after scoring 14 goals in their last 2 games. Only chance for Hertha that Bayern will be complacent, but with 5 points to catch up i think they will be focused and win. Kaiserslautern - Schalke. Will wait for Schalke result against Twente. Hannover - Koeln. Again will wait for Hannover result and play against Standard Liege.
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Re: Serie A - March 17-19 At first glance, Cagliari with new-old coach Ficcadenti for this one against Cesena. Bologna is flying at the moment, while Chievo not that good as visitor. It will be interesting to see how will Inter respond after last minute schocks from yesterday. Lecce - Palermo should have a lot of goals in them. Siena is strong at home, but at this price too short. Udinese - Napoli will be probably very tight and under seems like a good option but many things will depend on tonights performance of Napoli in Stamford Bridge. Roma should win against Genoa and over should also be an option.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 15 March I think Schalke will win this one against Twente. They were pretty unlucky with a loss 1-0 in first leg as Twente scored through non existing penalty and red card was also harsh. They're usually pretty strong at home, beating Hamburg 3-1 during the weekend, while Twente lost to NEC Nijmegen with the same result. I don't know if Twente coach McClaren made some rotations, but i'm very confident in Schalke win. Matip is suspended for Schalke, while Metzelder is doubtful. Also Hoger and Howedes trained separated from the team, but Hoger will probably play. Also Farfan is back. Also Twente has really important game vs Feyenoord on Sunday, while Schalke will visit K'lautern. Defender Douglas and right back Rosales are suspended for Eredivisie match vs Feyenoord, while Landzaat, Verhoek are long-term injured.
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Re: Portugal, Primeira Liga - 24/27 Feb Guimaraes is not that good away, i'm pretty certain that Braga will win this game as they can come to 3 points from Porto and Benfica and with Benfica-Porto game coming up next weekend they will see this as a great opportunity to put some pressure on the leading duo. I'm aware of all the injuries and thursday game in Europa League that's why i will back them with mid-low stakes.
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Re: La Liga - 25-26 February I would agree on Espanyol, but they have a lot of missings, so maybe for a low stake.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February Atletico also has Barcelona game after Lazio, so maybe a little warning.
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Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February 1. FC Nuernberg - Borussia Dortmund (-1 AH) 2.13 Pinnacle, stake 7/10 Dortmund is red hot at the moment, playing superbly.They got no new missings, with only Goetze of important players who is still missing. They were playing also withouth him in their last 2 game, which they won against Hamburg away with 1-5 and against Hoffenheim at home with 3-1. Kuba is playing great in place of Goetze and with Kagawa finding some form yet again, Grosskreutz reliable and Lewandowski in fine form i can only see away win in this encounter. Dortmund has 5 wins away from home in 10 game, while Nurnberg home stats are 3-3-3 and they haven't yet played with top 4 (Bayern, BVB, Schalke, M' Gladbach) at home yet. Good luck Dor s and only Gotze missing of the important players, but he didn't played also in last two Dortmund games, when they won Dortmund is red hot at the moment, playing superbly. They got no new missings and only Gotze missing of the important players, but he didn't played also in last two Dortmund games, when they won away against Hamburg 5-1 and at home 3-1 against Hoffenheim. Kuba is doing great job in replacing him. On the other side even Nurnberg's got no significant missings, but its not playing that good at home, having 3-3-3 record, while BVB has 5-3-2 away. I think in this form Borussia Dortmund should win pretty comfortably against Nurnberg on friday night. Good luckortmund is red hot at the moment, playing superbly. They got no new missings and only Gotze missing of the important players, but he didn't played also in last two Dortmund games, when they won aDortmund is red hot at the moment, playing superbly. They got no new missings and only Gotze missing of the important players, but he didn't played also in last two Dortmund games, when they won away against Hamburg 5-1 and at home 3-1 against Hoffenheim. Kuba is doing great job in replacing him. On the other side even Nurnberg's got no significant missings, but its not playing that good at home, having 3-3-3 record, while BVB has 5-3-2 away. I think in this form Borussia Dortmund should win pretty comfortably against Nurnberg on friday night. Good luckway against Hamburg 5-1 and at home 3-1 against Hoffenheim. Kuba is doing great job in replacing him. On the other side even Nurnberg's got no significant missings, but its not playing that good at home, having 3-3-3 record, while BVB has 5-3-2 away. I think in this form Borussia Dortmund should win pretty comfortably against Nurnberg on friday night. Good luck record, while BVB has 5-3-2 away. I think in this form Borussia Dortmund should win pretty comfortably against Nurnberg on friday night. Good luck
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Re: QPR v Wolves > Sat 4th Feb Wolves got 4 draws in their last 4 away games. Even manage to draw against Tottenham and Arsenal. The other two are against high flying Birmingham team in FA cup and against Bolton in Premiership. With only 2 wins for QPR at home this season i don't see any value in QPR at this odds. They were actually pretty lucky vs Aston Villa and 2-2 result does not reflect their performance. Yes QPR got some new signings, players back from Africa, but this price is not enough for me. Good luck
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Re: Tennis: 30th January to 5th February
They're both pretty miserable last weeks or maybe even months. It could go either way. No bet for me.Hi guys, 1 pick for me for the ATP Zagreb later today: GARCIA-LOPEZ +3 GAMES HANDICAP TO DEFEAT DODIG @1.88 on pinnaclesports Having watched those two players a lot of times, I have no idea to why Garcial-Lopez is an underdog in this match (the odds on him winning the match are 2.75-2.8) - I think he is a better player than Dodig on all surfaces except indoors and they are at the same level indoors where Dodig's big serve is a real weapon. -
Re: Tennis: 30th January to 5th February Ivan Ljubicic - Michael Berrer (+2.5 games) I saw almost the whole match in first round where Ljubicic was just awful with out-of-form Karol Beck. It was all about serve and did nothing in return. His movement was poor, balls where extremely short and all went through the middle. K. Beck made quite a few very bad unforced errors in critical moments and was looking also like a player really low on confidence. By no means i see Berrer as a world beater, but i think he can take at least a set, which will be enough against "Ljubo" in this kind of form to cover this handicap. In worst case i see Ljubicic win with two tiebreaks.
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Re: Midweek > England > Championship > 31st Jan/1st Feb
Hull played with really mixed squad and at least 7 players who will start today did not against Crawley in FA Cup. So that's indication that Hull takes Championship much more seriously. Doncaster just sold their best attacker Billy Sharp to Southampton, because they have financial problems. His missing is a blow for sure. Good luckYou will have to be careful here because Hull lost on the weekend to lower opposition (Crawley) in the FA Cup. So could be better value for money on Doncaster result because of Hulls FA Cup result. -
Re: Tennis: 30th January to 5th February
I would be on Gil really heavy if he played some match on clay before this one. This is the only thing that puts me off.Federico Gil vs Paolo Lorenzi Gil is not having a great service, but he likes so much returning balls and long rallies. Watched Lorenzi against Ungur and he was a disaster. Gil won surprisingly some good matches on hard, example Marcel Granollers and Ivan Dodig. I do not see any problem for him in winning against this Italian player. Gil @ 1.91 with Ladbrokers -
Re: Tennis: 30th January to 5th February
They're great friends who plays doubles together. If that need to be taken into consideration. Plus Melzer already played three matches here in qualies, so is familiar with the conditions. He won them pretty easily so i don't think he is fatigued. I don't want to oppose your pick, just point some other facts. Good luckJurgen Melzer vs Philipp Petzschner I will never understand these odds. Petzschner is a bombing server guy and won 3 times against Melzer in 3 matches. Melzer is pretty good on returns, but I do not think he will manage many great things against the German. They met last time in 3rd of January and Philip won 6-1, 7-5. Just 2 break chances offered and 3/3 break balls won. 84% of the points won with first serve! Expect another win for Philip! Petzschner -1.5 sets @ 3.38 with Pinnacle Sports -
Re: Everton v Manchester City > 31 Jan
Evertons H2H record against City at Goodison is currently preventing me taking City' date=' although I am tempted. Man City have only won 1 nin 13 here. Everton 8, Draw 4 and City 1.[/quote'] Do you really think H2H is relevant here before City were bought by oil money? I dont think that City 5 years or even 2 years ago is close the team that is today. -
Re: La Liga - 28-30 January
Yes, we definitely agree that it is all about opinions. I would hate myself if i downvalue Osasuna in some way or do the opposite regarding Atletico Madrid. Osasuna is having a great season, but i can't ignore the fact that Atletico seems like a different team since Diego Simeone took charge of the club 3 games away. Yes, Atletico has abysmal away record but their only win was in last game in which they beat Real Sociedad with 0-4. With Simeone at the helm they also beat Villarreal at home 3-0 and played in Malaga (which is not easy game) 0-0. On the other side Osasuna produced good result at home in their last game vs Valencia which ended 1-1, but they lost against Racing Santander (0-2)game before that. So Atletico has not conceded since the change of the coach. Maybe this game has draw written all over it, but my genuine conviction puts me on the side of Atletico. Good luck to you too. It was a nice share of opinions.If we take Atletico's away form for the last three games it reads w1 d1 l1. Osasuna's home form is w1 l1 d1 which reads to me not much difference in the form of each side. Admittedly I haven't gone as far as to looking at the strenght of opponents over those games though. You may be correct with your assumption that Atletico have the better squad potential wise but... In 9 away matches Atletico have only won once and their record reads W1 D2 L6 GF9 GA20 compared to Osasuna's who have won 50% of their games at home this season and their record reads W6 D3 L1 GF14 GA8 Even if Osauna fail to win imho the value lies with them. GL with your bet though. It's all about opinions -
Re: La Liga - 28-30 January
Actually there is some difference between these two teams form wise, that's why the odds favour Atletico Madrid. And their squad is certainly better potential wise. Sure Osasuna can win but if we take a look at their form, value is on Atletico side.According to the rating I use Osasuna's true odds should be 2.22 but Bodog are offering 3.25 for the home win :loon Not a lot between the two teams form wise but Osasuna have a fairly strong home record vs Alt poor away record. Worth a small stake as a value bet. Osasuna v Alt Madrid (1) 3.25 1 unit Bodog -
Re: Tennis: 30th January to 5th February
It looks like quite even match up and i don't think that odds which favour Sela are because of his win on grass last year, but because of back injury, which Beck suffered during Australian Open and couldn't play vs Federer in second round. I went to his website and he was receiving some treatment last week, but he is now in Zagreb and eager to get started. Maybe you have some more info about his injury? Nevertheless you should choose a bookie in which match will be voided if injury occurs.ATP Zagreb Indoors 250 - Dudi Sela vs Andreas Beck - Andreas Beck to Win @ 6/4 with Paddy Power - Stake £40
Andreas Beck is in another league to Dudi Sela on indoor hard surfaces and this was highlighted with his form in the closing end to last year. A, Beck is better under pressure and almost always serves solidly, regardless of his winning form. Sela on the other hand was knocked out in the very first round of the Australian Open by the one dimensional clay courter Thomas Belluci. Reason Sela has the bookies faith is predominantly due to the fact he leads the head to head with a meaningless straights set victory in a challenger in Nottingham on grass. Sela got absolutely battered by Stebe at the Challenger Tour Finals, whereas A, Beck was unlucky to lose to Stebe in the final in a tight tussle losing in the end 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 Can't see anything but a win for Andreas in this one.
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Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Price on Hannover going up at the moment. Maybe some of the announced players won't be ready tonight. Hannover is difficult to beat, while Nurnberg occasionally surprises away from home, like their 3-0 win in Leverkusen. I would like Hannover DNB around 1.8 to jump on them as i don't believe they will lost today, but draw is something to consider.
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Re: Netherlands - Eredivisie - 27-29 January I don't normally bet on under/over bets as i find them too unpredictable. Nevertheless i think there is some value in this under 3.5 in PSV - Vitesse game. PSV just want to win this game and Vitesse has a pretty strong defense, which should be even tighter now that they're weakened in attack at least till Bony will come back from African nations cup.
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Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January At first glance i think Hannover should be able to win against Nurnberg, even without Ya Konan and Haggui, who are on African cup of Nations. Dortmund and Bayern home can be used in some combos, and finally Mainz should beat Freiburg, but they're maybe a little short.
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Re: Belgium - Jupiler League - 20-22 January I don't think Reza will be in St. Truiden line-up today because of injury. Good luck
UEFA Europa League > Thursday 15 March
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 15 March Bilbao - Man Utd : Bilbao doesn't have to win to progress, but i don't think that they have the mentality to sit back. They will just play their football to win also this game. Potential wise Man Utd is the better team no doubt, but they have some missings in Nani, Anderson, Jones, while Vidic and Fletcher are long-term injured. Bilbao has very important game vs Valencia during the weekend. Verdict: I'm leaning towards Man Utd in this one, especially with DNB option. Hannover - Standard: Standard need to score if they want to progress, while Hannover can play their beloved game of deadly counter attacks. Hannover is good home team and Standard really not so good as a visitor. i also think Hannover is the better team here, but odds are a little short. Hannover win. PSV - Valencia: PSV need to win with two goals margin if they want to progress. They're usually strong home team if you don't take the last loss vs Twente (2-6) into consideration. They're in really bad form recently and Valencia definitely a better team here, but they have some missings, especially in defence, where there will be no Victor Ruiz, Ricardo Costa, while Maduro is long - term injured and Rami is doutful, so that only leaves them with Dealbert as fully fit. They will also play without their first striker Soldado. Both team have important games during the weekend, with PSV expecting Heerenven and Valencia will travel to Bilbao. PSC also fired their coach Rutten and interim coach Cocu took over. PSV DNB option Udinese - AZ: Udinese with a bad result from first game and a question about their motivation in this Europa League. They also played 0-0 against PAOK at home in previous round, but managed to win 0-3 away. But they're in bad form recently, while AZ is looking pretty good. Potential wise Udinese is a better team, but they have important game vs Napoli during the weekend. They both have some missings, with Basta, Isla, Torje, Fernandes missing for Udinese, while Martens didn't travel to Italy with AZ team. AZ +0,5 AH Besiktas - Atletico Madrid: Besiktas need a win with two goals, but they're in bad form recently, while Atletico is playing great since the arrival of club legend Diego Simeone. If you look at the players Atletico definitely has a better team. I know that Diego is missing for Atletico, and Besiktas is without suspended Ernst and injured Hilbert. Maybe more missings i just couldn't find any good info. No bet Man City - Sporting: Man City trails by one goal coming into this game and are extremely good at home, while Sporting isn't so great away from their stadium. City is not in good form recently, while Sporting is playing better since the arrival of Sa Pinto. City team is maybe two classes above this Sporting team, but they have very important game vs Chelsea on Monday in the Premier League, which i still think is their main goal for this year. Both have some missings, City especially in defence as Kompany and Zabalate are definitely out, also Barry has some problems and will probably be rested and with Lescott also having some problems i'm afraid for them if Savic will have to play alongside K. Toure in defence. Sporting is without important right back J. Pereira who is suspended and long-term injured Onyewu and Rinaudo. No bet Olympiakos - Metalist Kharkiv: Olympiakos has a great result from first leg, wining the encounter 0-1. Greeks are in great form at the moment, while Metalist is still searching for their form after the winter break. I don't know if there are any missings in these two sides, but it's important to know that Olympiakos has a huge game vs Panathinaikos during the weekend. Metalist +0,5 AH Schalke - Twente: Schalke need to win after first leg defeat with a score 0-1. They beat Hamburg during the weekend with 3-1, while Twente lost with the same result with Nac. Schalke a better team potential wise and are having Huntelaar and Farfan back since the first leg. Metzelder, Howedes are injured, but Hoger will be in the squad. Schalke win