Simao BVB
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Posts posted by Simao BVB
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Re: Copa del Rey Again with the el classico. I just don't think that Barcelona away form is the thing to look in this encounter as this is completely different team they're facing and will surely be motivated. Motivation is of extreme importance nowadays for Barcelona team as i was explaining few weeks ago in Primera thread, Barca won a lot during last years and are facing motivational problems vs so called lesser teams, but when big opponent comes up they're just at their best. They were motivated against Real and they won it away, they were motivated against Milan away and won that game, they were motivated for club World championship and won it with ease. So i suggest that anyone that look too much in Barcelona away form. Good luck all
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Re: France - Ligue 1 - 14-15 January i know that pierre emerick aubameyang si gone to Africa to represent his country from St. Etienne. Very important striker for them.
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Re: Spain - La Liga - 7-8 January Regarding Barcelona game it's just have to be said that Barca has motivational problems. They won so much in recent years so they are quite relaxed in so called "lesser" games against not so "attractive" opponents and seem to raise their standards whenever they're playing "good" team. They were fired up for Real Madrid game and we know how it was finished, they were fired up for Club World Championships and the won it with ease, so the class is still pretty much there, it's just about motivation for them. I think this year La Liga goes to Real Madrid and we will see "normal" Barcelona in Champions League.
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Re: England > Barclays Premier League > 2-4 January I don't think i contributed in Premier League section before as there is a lot of guys here who know a lot more about this league than i am, but this Man City - Liverpool game just seem to me a lot like Liverpool - Newcastle game last week. Most of the punters on Liverpool as they were on Newcastle last week and it ended as Liverpool win. I know almost all points out to Liverpool DNB option or even Liverpool +0.5 but i simply cannot ignore man city home record and Liverpool squad just don't strike me as strong at the moment. So Man City for me.
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Re: Slovenia PrvaLiga 2011/2012 Ziga Kous is not in Domzale anymore as he was loaned to his former club Mura. But i agree with your post that this injury crisis is disaster for Domzale, infact this many missings would blow any teams chances severely. Still Domzale without those injuries maybe top 3-4 side in Slovenia, while Triglav is the worst in my opinion.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September Villarreal - Bayern Muenchen Villarreal is coming into this game with a draw against Sevilla during the weekend, while Bayern continued with their great form and trash Freiburg 7-0 at home. Villarreal will play in Granada for the next Primera game, while Bayern will face Schalke in Gelsenkirchen. Villarreal is not in great form at the moment, which we can't say for Bayern as they're looking great during last few weeks. Villarreal will have to without Borja Valero and Bayern is still missing Robben, if we mention just the most important players. With Villarreal still searching for the form of last year and Bayern on top of their game and Gomez firing i see some value in: Bayern -0.25 AH, 1.80 Bet365 7/10 Bayern -1 AH, 3 Bet365 3/10
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September Dinamo Zagreb - Real Madrid Dinamo is coming into this game with a draw in biggest croatian derby vs Hajduk, they had a one man advantage for 70 minutes but coulnd't capitalise on that, while Real beat Getafe at home with 4-2, but they were playing really relaxed, as much as they needed for the win. Dinamo's next game will be with Varazdin, which should be an easy game, while Real will go to Valencia to meet Levante. Both teams are in pretty good form, but this game is another level for croatian champions. There is no H2H between these two teams, but huge difference in terms of quality. Dinamo will be without long term injured Biscan, Cufre is doubtful, while Vrsaljko and Simunic are suspended. This missings are a blow, despite Tonel and Vida managed to put some good games together. On the right side of defence Tomecak should play in a place of Vrsaljko. Real is still missing their signings from Bundesliga Sahin and Altintop, with Khedira doubtful. With all said i believe in: Real Madrid -2 AH, 2.14 188Bet 5/10
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 13 September Borussia Dortmund - Arsenal it's really hard game to predict, i would even say as Dortmund fan that Dortmund are a little short...despite all the sales and quick purchases Arsenal is still Arsenal and to be around 3.5 at Dortmund who haven't played in Champions League for a while is a little too much in my opinion...Dortmund really have no experience in Champions League and it's definetely on the higher level than Bundesliga in which they're not doing so well at the moment...Sahin and Barrios are huge missings for the home team compared to last season. From the possible formation above i see Hummels and Goetze as two players who are on Champions League level, with maybe Subotic, Kagawa getting there...Weidenfeller, Schmelzer, Grosskreutz are good players, while Gundogan, Bender, Lewandowski have potential...i deliberately leave out Pisczek, who i don't rate as top player, despite his good season last year...i won't get involved in betting for this match as i am BVB fan so good luck to anyone who will.
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Re: Ukraine Premier League 2011 i was thinking that Shaktar wont be in trashing mode today, although there is huge class difference between Shakhtar and Volyn. i find AH +2.5 on Volyn pretty good bet as Shakhtar have a game with Porto in Champions League next week, Volyn showed in recent matches that can defend as they conceded just 3 goals in 4 away games vs Chornomorets, Ilchyvets, Dnipro and Kryvbas. Are there any missings for away side? Will Shakhtar rotate their squad?
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Re: Portugal - Superliga - 9-12 September Surely Porto will have Shahktar game in their mind and some rotation in the squad can be expected and Porto didn't beat Vitoria by more than 2 goals a long time. So, Vitoria +2.25 AH should be a bet to look into.
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Re: Italia Serie A 1st round Milan - Lazio After the strike the last of best leagues get underway today with the game between last year champions Milan and ambitious Lazio from Rome. Both teams made many changes during the summer with Milan strenghtening their squad with Mexes, Taiwo, Aquilani, Nocerino, Al Shaarawy and lost Legrottaglie, Pirlo, Jankulovski and Oddo just to mention a few. On the other side Lazio brought in Klose, Cisse, Stankevicius, Marchetti, Konko, Cana, Lulic and lost Muslera, Bresciano, Lichsteiner and Zarate of the important ones. Milan will miss van Bommel, Flamini, Taiwo, Mexes and Robinho for this match, while Lazio will have to do without Cana, Radu, Sculli, Stankevicius and Marchetti. Probable line - ups: MILAN (4-3-1-2): Abbiati - Abate, Nesta, T. Silva, Antonini - Gattuso, Ambrosini, Aquilani - Boateng - Pato, Ibrahimovic LAZIO (4-2-3-1): Bizzari - Konko, Dias, Biava, Zauri - Ledesma, Brocchi - Mauri, Hernanes, Cisse - Klose With season still beginning we should put our stakes to minimum as there are certainly some questions about squad preparation. Nevertheless i found out that games between these two opponents finished with a draw on last 3 occasions and Lazio didn't lose in last three games with Milan on San Siro. We should also consider that Milan has to go to Barcelona on Tuesday for Champions League game, while Lazio will host Vaslui in Europa League on Thursday. All in all i believe that Milan won't go firing with all cylinders in this much as they didn't have any competitive games yet and will certainly have Barcelona game on their mind. With Lazio hard to break down i see some value in this bet: Lazio AH +1 1.775 Bet365, 3/10
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 9-12 September Hansa Rostock - Eintrach Braunshweig 9.9.2011 18.00 One of the Friday matches in 2. Bundesliga will be the clash of two "aufsteigers" (promoted) teams. Teams entered level higher competion on different note as Hansa is without a win in first 6 matches with 4 draws and 2 losses, while Eintracht B. is third in the table at the moment with 13 points for 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Hansa home form is not very good as they managed to gain just two points from their first three matches (draws against Aachen and Bochum, loss against Paderborn). Braunshweig has 2 wins away beating Karlsruhe 3-1 and Aachen 2-0. Hansa is missing two regular center backs for todays game in Kostal and Wiemann, first one is injured and the other suspended, while attack will have to do without the services of experienced Marek Mintal. Eintracht Braunshweig will be once again without first choice GK Petkovic, but Davari has step up so far, other two missings (Dogan, Gos) are not important. Probable line-ups: Hansa (4-2-3-1): K. Mueller-Schryba, R. Mueller, Pannewitz, Pelzer - Peitz, Perthel - Ziegenbein, Lartey, Jaenicke - Semme Eintracht Braunshweig (4-1-4-1): Davari - Kessel, Correia, Henn, Reichel - Theuerkauf - Kruppke, Zimmermann, Vrancic, Boland - Kumbela For all the mentioned reasons above i see some value in: Eintracht Braunshweig AH +0.25 1.85 Bet365 6/10
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 9-12 September I wouldn't touch Furth for today, cause Duisburg can stop them. Furth is great counter-attacking team with some very fast players, but i'm not sure about their creativity which they will need today. I think that Duisburg will stand very firmly and it will be difficult to break them down. Surely they can win, but at these odds this is no bet for me.
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-11 September I'm still thinking about tonights game Augsburg vs Leverkusen...Leverkusen is definitely the better team here and Augsburg got a lot of injuries in full back position and will have to play center backs or even defensive midfielders in full back positions which can the likes of Schuerle and Sam certainly exploit. Augsburg is missing left back De Jong (4 games so far), right back Verhaegh (4 games), so center back Callsen Bracker and defensive midfielder Lorenzo Davids could take their positions. They are also withouth right midfielder Ndjeng (5 games). In Leverkusen left back Kadlec is suspended with Adler, Barnetta long term missings. So far i'm thinking that the price on Leverkusen is somewhat short after the international break and Chelsea game ahead. Maybe somebody else will put some more info...
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Re: Croatia Prva HNL 2011/2012 Lokomotiva Zagreb - NK Zagreb With tonight city of Zagreb "derby" we will see T-Com 1. HNL on the way again after international break. Lokomotiva is the positive surprise so far collecting 11 points from 6 matches which is great for this young team, who have some players on loan from Dinamo in their squad. On the other side we have Zagreb with nine points, but all of them were gathered at their home ground. Lokomotiva played only 2 matches at "home" so far with 1 win against Sibenik (2-0) and one draw against Rijeka (0-0), while Zagreb lost to Hajduk (0-4), Osijek (0-4) and Slaven Belupo (0-1) away. Their opposition was quite strong, but what concerns me is that they were really outplayed in this matches and results could be higher. In the meantime Lokomotiva strenghten their squad with talented center back Dino Skvorc, who is another player on loan from Dinamo and he can play today. They're missing Brozovic (AM, 6 Games) through suspension and not important Horvat. On the other side Zagreb is without attacking midfielder Abdurahimi (4 games, 1 assist), right back Pelaic (4 games), left back Lapic (0 games) and central midfielder Males (2 games), with left back Stiglec (6 games) doubtful. These two teams played 4 games between each other in last 2 years with Lokomotiva winning three and Zagreb winning one of them. Both "home" matches of Lokomotiva resulted in their win. It is good to know that Lokomotiva plays their home matches at Dinamo stadium Maksimir and don't have a lot of support and are considered feeder team of Dinamo. So with all mentioned i see some value in: Lokomotiva Zagreb AH -0.75 1.975 odds Bet365 6/10
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Re: Belgium - Jupiler League - 9-11 September Interesting game today with two teams who have new coaches. St. Truiden new coach is Frankie van der Elst who came from Lommel and Genk new coach is Mario Been, who coached Feyenoord, NEC and Excelsior. I see some interesting H2H here as during last 2.5 year these two teams played 7 times to each other with St. Truiden manage to grab only two draws in those 7 games. What is even more interesting is that they were beaten 4 times at their home stadium, which is the venue for tonight game and those two draws were at Genk. What do Belgian tipsters think and how do you rate these new coaches for both teams? Are there any missing players?
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Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 10-11 September Doncaster have James O'Connor, Brian Stock, James Hayter and Shelton Martis back for the game against Cardiff. But Billy Sharp, Martin Woods, Ryan Mason, Bouhenna, C. Brown, Lockwood, Chambers and Keegan remain sidelined.
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Re: Slovenia PrvaLiga 2011/2012 Rudar Velenje - Gorica: i would stay away of 1x2 market as the outcome for the winner is very unpredictable, but this game should have some goals in it as both teams are better in attacking than defending... Domzale - Nafta: Domzale should win this game as they should have some of the injured players back for this encounter and have definitely better squad on paper. Nafta was somewhat weekend in the last days of transfer window as very important attacker Vinko (Metz) left the team, but they also stayed without important midfielder Lesjak, who went to Maribor. They brought two reinforcenments in Gabriel da Silva from Maribor and bosnian attacker, but da Silva is not on the level of Lesjak, while the attacker from Bosnia is quite unproven. Maribor - Celje: everything points out to Maribor victory, but not with these odds as they will have their minds on the Europa League game next week, which will be very important for them, so maybe we will see some fringe players for this game. Mura - Olimpija: before the international break i would say that this is sure away win, but developments since then made me think twice about the outcome. Mura changed coach and assistant coach of Maribor took over. He is unproven, but word is he posses qualities and i need some time to judge him. He also bring two players on loan from Maribor (Rep and Dodlek) who didn't play enough in Maribor, so they decided to come to Mura where they can develop faster (Rep was highly rated potential when he arrived to Maribor). Olimpija meanhwile get rid of three players, with left back Kasnik went on loan to Sheffield Wednesday, Rujovic (central midfielder) went to Triglav Kranj and Cvijanovic had his contract terminated. Their best player Vrsic played almost the whole game for national team vs Italy so he should be a little tired. Triglav Kranj - Koper: On paper everything looks like this should be Koper win, as they have better training conditions, better players and so on, but their management is a mess as they couldn't find a coach who would bring them some stability. They appointed croatian coach Bracun (he coached in Koper before and had mixed results) before the transfer window was closed and brought in croatian player Aganovic from Varazdin. Bracun had some time during international break to get to know his group of players but i'm still not sure they can win in Kranj, who is a team that can be very stubborn opposition or totally collapse.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 13 September
i agree that is way to high for Shakhtar. Mahno do you know if there will be any significant missings in Shakhtar team?Can't believe Shakhtar is @5.50 :loon Porto defence will be to slow for Shakhtar's brazilians -
Re: Netherlands - Eredivisie - 10-11 September
Also, there is no Ruiz for Twente as he went to Fulham on last day of transfer window, but nevertheless i think they should win vs Roda.I think Twente is great value @ 1.66 versus Roda JC. Roda JC played very poorly against FC Utrecht two weeks ago and even lost to ''new kid on the block'' RKC Waalwijk the week before that in their own stadium (2-0). They lack creativity up front and have a pretty shaky defence. Twente on the other hand is making a solid impression, having won 4 out of 4 games with ease and are #1 in the Eredivisie. They're missing winger Chadli, but against such a poorly performing Roda JC (1 win, 3 losses) that shouldn't be a problem. High stakes on Twente to win, they trashed Heerenveen and VVV Venlo recently and I'm feeling very confident about this one. -
Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-11 September Goetze is suspended for this game, he was sent off in the last Bundesliga game vs Leverkusen. If you can find Hertha +2 AH at these odds you should take them...even +1.5 on Hertha should do, as Chris1909 already mentioned without Goetze Dortmund will be missing some creativity and Barrios is still out. They can create so many chances for themselves but their finishing often let them down. This is a time to Kagawa or Perisic to step up...
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-11 September At first glance i would say that both Bayern and Dortmund should win even with a handicap, i also like Borussia Moenchengladbach at home vs Kaiserslautern and i think that Hannover is overpriced away at Stuttgart. But i will need to look more into those games...
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Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania I agree with you with Serbia pick, i even took Serbia ML with 2.1 as i don't believe that run&gun style of Lithuania will be effective against Serbia, who can play great defence as well as offence, so i think this is a gift from the bookies. Serbia has advantage in virtually any department from point guards to centers and a better coach in my opinion. Good luck to you
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Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania I personally will stay away from match Finland - Bosnia as Bosnia is maybe better team, but they have many ups and downs, while Finland played great with Croatia and if they repeat that performance this will be very open game. I simply don't trust Bosnia with this odds. Nevertheless great effort rorschachbetting.
Tennis: Australian Open 2012
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I like Kukushkin as a dog against Troicki. Kukushkin took a set from Murray in Brisbane and blow Garcia Lopez off the court in round 1. On the other side we have Troicki who is coming from 5 setter against Ferrero and he was totally outplayed by Monfils in Doha. Surely you can't compare Monfils and Kukushkin but i see Kukushkin as a player on the rise and pretty good form, while Troicki is in a slump lately. Troicki is 3-0 in H2H but 2 of those matches were played 5 and 6 years ago and most recent one is two years ago from Zagreb in which Kukushkin come really close with 7-5 7-5. I think odds over 4 are great for Kukushkin win. From WTA i like Cirstea to beat U. Radwanska with a handicap, although she is coming from a great win vs Stosur (who is in bad form actually) and can be a little mentally empty i think she is still the better player of these two. Cirstea also won vs Mattek - Sands and Pervak this season, while Radwanska beat Benesova (great result) and got hammered by her sister Agnieszka with 6-1 6-1.