micas08

Pressed for time with the tournament about to start, so will have to be brief. I'll be backing both favourites in the outrights to begin with - Medvedev and Barty look completely justified as the players to beat. I'll also join in with the acca fun by backing ten players that I think should win their matches - small stakes though, as one is bound to lose. 
As for individual matches, I'm backing Koepfer to beat Taberner. He's not in the best of form, but he's the better player on hard and he's raised his game for Slams in the last couple of years. The fact that it's best of five sets should be to his advantage as well. I'll also side with Fognini over Griekspoor. The mercurial Italian is capable of beating any player when in the mood, and whilst Griekspoor seems to have forgotten how to lose the players he's been beating haven't been of the calibre of Fognini. Also he pulled out of his last match against Nadal so who knows if he's fully fit. Kecmanovic should get the better of Caruso who's a lucky loser and a pretty limited player so I'll be backing him.
On the Women's side there's quite a few I like. I'm going to back both Hartono and Osorio Serrano to cause upsets against Anisimova and Osaka respectively. Anisimova is said to be carrying a thigh injury and although Osaka should be beating Osorio Serrano I think the Colombian has a lot of potential. I'll take Bronzetti to beat Gracheva at plus money - Gracheva didn't win a game in her last match and Bronzetti has the momentum of coming through qualifying. Pegula hasn't won a set in the two matches she's played to start the season which suggests she's not on top of her game, so I'll go against her by backing Kalinina at a nice price. Kuzmova looks a fair favourite against Xiyu Wang. She came through qualies without dropping a set against some decent opposition and Wang hasn't beaten anyone of note for some time. Finally I'm backing Udvardy and Vekic - Udvardy because I think her price is far too big and Vekic because I'd say recency bias due to Riske making the final last week and Vekic not having played yet this season has skewed the prices. Vekic leads the h2h 3-0 on hard courts.
 
80pts Koepfer to beat Taberner @ 1.40 Boylesports
25pts Fognini to beat Griekspoor @ 1.90 365
50pts Kecmanovic to beat Caruso @ 1.44 365
5pts Hartono to beat Anisimova @ 10.00 Boylesports
5pts Osorio Serrano to beat Osaka @ 10.00 Boylesports
40pts Bronzetti to beat Gracheva @ 2.30 365
25pts Kalinina to beat Pegula @ 3.40 365
35pts Kuzmova to beat Wang @ 1.66 365
15pts Udvardy to beat Azarenka @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange
35pts Vekic to beat Riske @ 2.20 365
15pts Medvedev to win ATP Australian Open @ 2.84 Betfair Exchange
25pts Barty to win WTA Australian Open @ 4.33 Betfair Exchange
10pts Khachanov (vs. Kudla) x Berrettini (vs. Nakashima) x Otte (vs. Tseng) x Sonego (vs. Querrey) x Kecmanovic (vs. Caruso) x Zverev (vs. Altmaier) x Kostyuk (vs. Parry) x Alexandrova (vs. Pera) x Van Uytvanck (vs. Bucsa) x Barty (vs. Tsurenko) @ 9.20 365

Barnet v Aldershot (Live on BT Sport) Barnet were played off the park by Wrexham last Saturday and then went and beat Stockport on Tuesday night whilst Wrexham lost to Maidenhead. Proof that football will always throw up seemingly random results. That was Barnet's worse performance since Dean Brennan took over as manager though and I think it was just unfortunate it came against a Wrexham side who were at their best. I think they have a decent chance of beating an Aldershot side who are struggling for wins even if they do seem to be improving. They were heavily backed to beat Weymouth on Tuesday night and although the price ended up way too short I could see why people thought they would win as the Weymouth manager complained about how tired his players were after the draw against Wealdstone last Saturday. For Aldershot to fail to score against them wasn't great and their xG was low as well. What I will say is they have lost all 6 home league games now and they have performed better away from home, but even so there is no way they should be favourites for this game and Barnet are a massive price.   Weymouth v Kings Lynn Although Weymouth have only won once at home against Maidenhead their 2 defeats came against Boreham Wood and Stockport and they have managed a draw against Notts County as well. I mentioned above that they were looking tired last Saturday, but they rested some key players on Tuesday night so they were able to freshen some players up whilst also managing to win. I think they should be slightly shorter in the betting here. Amazingly Kings Lynn have had more possession in 10 of their 12 league games, but their problem is they often don't have enough quality in the final 3rd to take advantage of seeing so much of the ball. They had nearly 70% of the ball against Boreham Wood on Tuesday night yet could only manage an xG of 0.9 compared to Wood's 1.79 and they lost 1-0. Only 3 times this season has their xG been higher than their opponents and that for me puts things in Weymouth's favour here.   Hungerford v Maidstone (National League South) Just the one bet at Step 2 this weekend and I think the home side are overpriced here. I put Maidstone up last week and they lost 2-0 to Dorking and after a 0-0 draw at Dulwich on Tuesday night that meant they haven't scored in their last 3 league games now. You just get the sense they are in a bit of a sticky patch and this will be a tough game. Hungerford were having a cracking season last time around and they have been able to pretty much carry that into this one as well. 3 of their 4 league wins have come against the weaker sides in the league, but they have beaten Dorking and drew against Havant on Tuesday night. At home I just can't make them anywhere near as big as they are to win this and look fair value.   Barnet 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 11/10) Weymouth 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/4) Hungerford 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

That was a good Day yesterday....