Darran

So we finally get to the last meeting of the season. After having a very good first year in 2020, last year was much harder and I wondered if it would be something that I just happened to fluke in 2020 rather than being good at it. Luckily this season has been good as well and I go into the final meeting with a healthy profit which if BOG was allowed would be even higher given some of the mad drifts there have been on some of the selections. Hopefully we can go out on a high and I'm really looking forward to what should be a fascinating card. Bell Ex One who was 3rd in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls at the Festival in March makes his hurdles debut in Australia and goes head to head with Stern Idol in a race I can't wait to watch.
Race 1 It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 2 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He isn't the first ex-European horse to go down this route having failed on the flat so he is likely to have the class, but I can't say I was overly impressed by his hurdles trial so I am happy enough to look elsewhere at the prices. Cotton Eye Joe is nowhere near Port Guillaume's class on the flat, but he did win a BM58 last time. He looked very novicey in his trial though and that puts me off. Upswing gets a run with their being a scratching and he's been running OK in BM70's/78's on the flat. He's harder to judge on his hurdling ability as he's been allowed to pot around at the back in a couple of trials. He's one to be wary off. The selection though is going to be one who has run in a hurdles race in the shape of Double You Tee. That was a good maiden hurdle he was 4th in at Pakenham on his debut and he wasn't able to run to his best in a race at Flemington last time. As much as you can't take trial results at face value the fact, he was in front of Bell Ex One 12 days ago is pleasing.    Double You Tee 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power   Race 2 This is a maiden hurdle for those who have low ratings on the flat so as you can imagine it is a low-class affair. If pushed Capellini might be worth an e/w play given he has finished 3rd in his last 3 maidens, but at the same time you just wonder if one of the hurdling newcomers is probably going to be good enough to beat him. I find it hard to have any confidence behind any of them though so I will pass the race over from a betting point of view.   Race 3 An interesting BM120 Hurdle. Chains Of Honour is a short price just as he was at Sandown last time, but he seemed to over-race that day and he didn't see his race out. He ended up finishing 3rd and to me it was more of a case that he didn't look like he stayed rather than him needing this deep ground which it was when he won his maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. He has the ability to win this especially given the yard he's coming from, but he looks worth opposing at the prices. Yulong Rising finished in 2nd in that race which was his best run to date over hurdles and he runs well in heavy ground so he has a chance. Sky Hero was beaten 0.2L by Bedford a couple of weeks ago and I think that was good form so he is another one who wouldn't be a surprise winner. I am going to back two against the field. I don't think it was a strong maiden which Castrofrancaru won a couple of weeks ago, but he was really impressive and that came on the back of 2 wins on the flat. The ground will be more testing here, but both those flat wins came on a heavy track and he looks to have a good chance to me in a race like this. The other one that interests me is the hurdling newcomer Star Stock. I find it interesting that his good trainer has chosen to go into handicap company first up rather than run in a maiden and I liked the way he trailed a couple of weeks ago. He won his maiden on the flat 2 back and then was a good 3rd in a BM70 at Geelong after that. He could be overpriced because he hasn't been over hurdles yet.   Castrofrancaru 1pt @ 100/30 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes Star Stock 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and it really does look like a match between ex-French hurdler Stern Idol and the ex-Paul Nicholls horse Bell Ex One. Stern Idol has been so impressive in his two hurdles starts in Australia winning both by huge margins. There is every chance he is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment although clearly the yard also have Saunter Boy so they haven't needed to run him in the bigger races until now. He's obviously very short, but in the shape of Bell Ex One he certainly faces his best opponent yet. He only ran once for Nicholls having been in Ireland previously, but he finished a very good 3rd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That race has worked out pretty well so far and did feature one of the Mullins hot pots of the week Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd to Brazil. That was an excellent run and he was staying on to good effect up the hill. As for the ground he should be fine on a Heavy 10 given what he won on in Ireland. He's had a perfectly respectable flat run and a trial since coming to Australia. It's no surprise that Stern Idol is such a short price as the Australian's know more about him and I would have him as favourite as well because I do think he's very good, but Bell Ex One is clearly a very good horse as well and I don't think there will be as much between them as the betting suggests so from a value point of view I have to be with the Cheltenham Festival 3rd.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 5 Having been keen on Roland Garros in previous races I left him alone last time and he duly made all and won. He should appreciate this even softer ground as well and its clear why he is favourite. I am going to take him on though with Brungle Bertie. Even though he was odds on on his chase debut at Pakenham and he was 2nd I did put up the winner that day and I think the form is good especially as there was a big space to the 3rd. He was then 4th in the Crisp last time, but that was a good effort and this is an easier race. It's hard to fancy any of the Pateman runners who have been very average this year. Mighty Oasis was a good winner over hurdles although was poor last time. He could be a player if he bounces back, but I suspect it will be between the top 2 in the betting and Brungle Bertie is the value for me.   Brungle Bertie 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 6 The biggest race of the Aussie Jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase and it looks a fascinating affair. The Cossack is the challenger from New Zealand, but he has to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the Grand National Hurdle where he was beaten a long way out. He is surely better than that and I think a return to heavier ground will help his chances as well. Bee Tee Junior won this in 2020 on his first chase start and after threatening to come back to form he finally did so a couple of weeks ago when he was 2nd to Roland Garros given him a lot of weight. I'm not sure that effort is quite good enough to land this, but he should run well again on the back of it. St Arnicca is trying to copy what Bee Tee Junior did in finishing 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle and then win this on his 1st start over fences. I thought he was a little flattered to finish as close as he did to Saunter Boy as the winner kicked for home plenty early enough and I think he's better over shorter so it was no real surprise something got close to him. He is a contender though.   Finally we get to the form from the Crisp Steeplechase where the front 3 home, Flying Agent, Yulong Place and Valac, do battle again. Flying Agent was just so good in that race that I don't see how either of them can reverse the form. He has been prepared to peak at the backend of the season this time around and he is clearly doing just that. I find it hard to see Flying Agent getting beat here, obviously The Cossack and St Arnicca are new rivals, but I think at the level he is racing at right now he sets a very high level to beat.   Flying Agent 2.5pts @ 6/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

So we finally get to the last meeting of the season. After having a very good first year in 2020, last year was much harder and I wondered if it would be something that I just happened to fluke in 2020 rather than being good at it. Luckily this season has been good as well and I go into the final meeting with a healthy profit which if BOG was allowed would be even higher given some of the mad drifts there have been on some of the selections. Hopefully we can go out on a high and I'm really looking forward to what should be a fascinating card. Bell Ex One who was 3rd in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls at the Festival in March makes his hurdles debut in Australia and goes head to head with Stern Idol in a race I can't wait to watch.
Race 1 It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 2 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He isn't the first ex-European horse to go down this route having failed on the flat so he is likely to have the class, but I can't say I was overly impressed by his hurdles trial so I am happy enough to look elsewhere at the prices. Cotton Eye Joe is nowhere near Port Guillaume's class on the flat, but he did win a BM58 last time. He looked very novicey in his trial though and that puts me off. Upswing gets a run with their being a scratching and he's been running OK in BM70's/78's on the flat. He's harder to judge on his hurdling ability as he's been allowed to pot around at the back in a couple of trials. He's one to be wary off. The selection though is going to be one who has run in a hurdles race in the shape of Double You Tee. That was a good maiden hurdle he was 4th in at Pakenham on his debut and he wasn't able to run to his best in a race at Flemington last time. As much as you can't take trial results at face value the fact, he was in front of Bell Ex One 12 days ago is pleasing.    Double You Tee 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power   Race 2 This is a maiden hurdle for those who have low ratings on the flat so as you can imagine it is a low-class affair. If pushed Capellini might be worth an e/w play given he has finished 3rd in his last 3 maidens, but at the same time you just wonder if one of the hurdling newcomers is probably going to be good enough to beat him. I find it hard to have any confidence behind any of them though so I will pass the race over from a betting point of view.   Race 3 An interesting BM120 Hurdle. Chains Of Honour is a short price just as he was at Sandown last time, but he seemed to over-race that day and he didn't see his race out. He ended up finishing 3rd and to me it was more of a case that he didn't look like he stayed rather than him needing this deep ground which it was when he won his maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. He has the ability to win this especially given the yard he's coming from, but he looks worth opposing at the prices. Yulong Rising finished in 2nd in that race which was his best run to date over hurdles and he runs well in heavy ground so he has a chance. Sky Hero was beaten 0.2L by Bedford a couple of weeks ago and I think that was good form so he is another one who wouldn't be a surprise winner. I am going to back two against the field. I don't think it was a strong maiden which Castrofrancaru won a couple of weeks ago, but he was really impressive and that came on the back of 2 wins on the flat. The ground will be more testing here, but both those flat wins came on a heavy track and he looks to have a good chance to me in a race like this. The other one that interests me is the hurdling newcomer Star Stock. I find it interesting that his good trainer has chosen to go into handicap company first up rather than run in a maiden and I liked the way he trailed a couple of weeks ago. He won his maiden on the flat 2 back and then was a good 3rd in a BM70 at Geelong after that. He could be overpriced because he hasn't been over hurdles yet.   Castrofrancaru 1pt @ 100/30 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes Star Stock 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and it really does look like a match between ex-French hurdler Stern Idol and the ex-Paul Nicholls horse Bell Ex One. Stern Idol has been so impressive in his two hurdles starts in Australia winning both by huge margins. There is every chance he is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment although clearly the yard also have Saunter Boy so they haven't needed to run him in the bigger races until now. He's obviously very short, but in the shape of Bell Ex One he certainly faces his best opponent yet. He only ran once for Nicholls having been in Ireland previously, but he finished a very good 3rd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That race has worked out pretty well so far and did feature one of the Mullins hot pots of the week Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd to Brazil. That was an excellent run and he was staying on to good effect up the hill. As for the ground he should be fine on a Heavy 10 given what he won on in Ireland. He's had a perfectly respectable flat run and a trial since coming to Australia. It's no surprise that Stern Idol is such a short price as the Australian's know more about him and I would have him as favourite as well because I do think he's very good, but Bell Ex One is clearly a very good horse as well and I don't think there will be as much between them as the betting suggests so from a value point of view I have to be with the Cheltenham Festival 3rd.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 5 Having been keen on Roland Garros in previous races I left him alone last time and he duly made all and won. He should appreciate this even softer ground as well and its clear why he is favourite. I am going to take him on though with Brungle Bertie. Even though he was odds on on his chase debut at Pakenham and he was 2nd I did put up the winner that day and I think the form is good especially as there was a big space to the 3rd. He was then 4th in the Crisp last time, but that was a good effort and this is an easier race. It's hard to fancy any of the Pateman runners who have been very average this year. Mighty Oasis was a good winner over hurdles although was poor last time. He could be a player if he bounces back, but I suspect it will be between the top 2 in the betting and Brungle Bertie is the value for me.   Brungle Bertie 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 6 The biggest race of the Aussie Jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase and it looks a fascinating affair. The Cossack is the challenger from New Zealand, but he has to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the Grand National Hurdle where he was beaten a long way out. He is surely better than that and I think a return to heavier ground will help his chances as well. Bee Tee Junior won this in 2020 on his first chase start and after threatening to come back to form he finally did so a couple of weeks ago when he was 2nd to Roland Garros given him a lot of weight. I'm not sure that effort is quite good enough to land this, but he should run well again on the back of it. St Arnicca is trying to copy what Bee Tee Junior did in finishing 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle and then win this on his 1st start over fences. I thought he was a little flattered to finish as close as he did to Saunter Boy as the winner kicked for home plenty early enough and I think he's better over shorter so it was no real surprise something got close to him. He is a contender though.   Finally we get to the form from the Crisp Steeplechase where the front 3 home, Flying Agent, Yulong Place and Valac, do battle again. Flying Agent was just so good in that race that I don't see how either of them can reverse the form. He has been prepared to peak at the backend of the season this time around and he is clearly doing just that. I find it hard to see Flying Agent getting beat here, obviously The Cossack and St Arnicca are new rivals, but I think at the level he is racing at right now he sets a very high level to beat.   Flying Agent 2.5pts @ 6/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

So we finally get to the last meeting of the season. After having a very good first year in 2020, last year was much harder and I wondered if it would be something that I just happened to fluke in 2020 rather than being good at it. Luckily this season has been good as well and I go into the final meeting with a healthy profit which if BOG was allowed would be even higher given some of the mad drifts there have been on some of the selections. Hopefully we can go out on a high and I'm really looking forward to what should be a fascinating card. Bell Ex One who was 3rd in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls at the Festival in March makes his hurdles debut in Australia and goes head to head with Stern Idol in a race I can't wait to watch.
Race 1 It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 2 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He isn't the first ex-European horse to go down this route having failed on the flat so he is likely to have the class, but I can't say I was overly impressed by his hurdles trial so I am happy enough to look elsewhere at the prices. Cotton Eye Joe is nowhere near Port Guillaume's class on the flat, but he did win a BM58 last time. He looked very novicey in his trial though and that puts me off. Upswing gets a run with their being a scratching and he's been running OK in BM70's/78's on the flat. He's harder to judge on his hurdling ability as he's been allowed to pot around at the back in a couple of trials. He's one to be wary off. The selection though is going to be one who has run in a hurdles race in the shape of Double You Tee. That was a good maiden hurdle he was 4th in at Pakenham on his debut and he wasn't able to run to his best in a race at Flemington last time. As much as you can't take trial results at face value the fact, he was in front of Bell Ex One 12 days ago is pleasing.    Double You Tee 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power   Race 2 This is a maiden hurdle for those who have low ratings on the flat so as you can imagine it is a low-class affair. If pushed Capellini might be worth an e/w play given he has finished 3rd in his last 3 maidens, but at the same time you just wonder if one of the hurdling newcomers is probably going to be good enough to beat him. I find it hard to have any confidence behind any of them though so I will pass the race over from a betting point of view.   Race 3 An interesting BM120 Hurdle. Chains Of Honour is a short price just as he was at Sandown last time, but he seemed to over-race that day and he didn't see his race out. He ended up finishing 3rd and to me it was more of a case that he didn't look like he stayed rather than him needing this deep ground which it was when he won his maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. He has the ability to win this especially given the yard he's coming from, but he looks worth opposing at the prices. Yulong Rising finished in 2nd in that race which was his best run to date over hurdles and he runs well in heavy ground so he has a chance. Sky Hero was beaten 0.2L by Bedford a couple of weeks ago and I think that was good form so he is another one who wouldn't be a surprise winner. I am going to back two against the field. I don't think it was a strong maiden which Castrofrancaru won a couple of weeks ago, but he was really impressive and that came on the back of 2 wins on the flat. The ground will be more testing here, but both those flat wins came on a heavy track and he looks to have a good chance to me in a race like this. The other one that interests me is the hurdling newcomer Star Stock. I find it interesting that his good trainer has chosen to go into handicap company first up rather than run in a maiden and I liked the way he trailed a couple of weeks ago. He won his maiden on the flat 2 back and then was a good 3rd in a BM70 at Geelong after that. He could be overpriced because he hasn't been over hurdles yet.   Castrofrancaru 1pt @ 100/30 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes Star Stock 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and it really does look like a match between ex-French hurdler Stern Idol and the ex-Paul Nicholls horse Bell Ex One. Stern Idol has been so impressive in his two hurdles starts in Australia winning both by huge margins. There is every chance he is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment although clearly the yard also have Saunter Boy so they haven't needed to run him in the bigger races until now. He's obviously very short, but in the shape of Bell Ex One he certainly faces his best opponent yet. He only ran once for Nicholls having been in Ireland previously, but he finished a very good 3rd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That race has worked out pretty well so far and did feature one of the Mullins hot pots of the week Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd to Brazil. That was an excellent run and he was staying on to good effect up the hill. As for the ground he should be fine on a Heavy 10 given what he won on in Ireland. He's had a perfectly respectable flat run and a trial since coming to Australia. It's no surprise that Stern Idol is such a short price as the Australian's know more about him and I would have him as favourite as well because I do think he's very good, but Bell Ex One is clearly a very good horse as well and I don't think there will be as much between them as the betting suggests so from a value point of view I have to be with the Cheltenham Festival 3rd.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 5 Having been keen on Roland Garros in previous races I left him alone last time and he duly made all and won. He should appreciate this even softer ground as well and its clear why he is favourite. I am going to take him on though with Brungle Bertie. Even though he was odds on on his chase debut at Pakenham and he was 2nd I did put up the winner that day and I think the form is good especially as there was a big space to the 3rd. He was then 4th in the Crisp last time, but that was a good effort and this is an easier race. It's hard to fancy any of the Pateman runners who have been very average this year. Mighty Oasis was a good winner over hurdles although was poor last time. He could be a player if he bounces back, but I suspect it will be between the top 2 in the betting and Brungle Bertie is the value for me.   Brungle Bertie 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 6 The biggest race of the Aussie Jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase and it looks a fascinating affair. The Cossack is the challenger from New Zealand, but he has to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the Grand National Hurdle where he was beaten a long way out. He is surely better than that and I think a return to heavier ground will help his chances as well. Bee Tee Junior won this in 2020 on his first chase start and after threatening to come back to form he finally did so a couple of weeks ago when he was 2nd to Roland Garros given him a lot of weight. I'm not sure that effort is quite good enough to land this, but he should run well again on the back of it. St Arnicca is trying to copy what Bee Tee Junior did in finishing 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle and then win this on his 1st start over fences. I thought he was a little flattered to finish as close as he did to Saunter Boy as the winner kicked for home plenty early enough and I think he's better over shorter so it was no real surprise something got close to him. He is a contender though.   Finally we get to the form from the Crisp Steeplechase where the front 3 home, Flying Agent, Yulong Place and Valac, do battle again. Flying Agent was just so good in that race that I don't see how either of them can reverse the form. He has been prepared to peak at the backend of the season this time around and he is clearly doing just that. I find it hard to see Flying Agent getting beat here, obviously The Cossack and St Arnicca are new rivals, but I think at the level he is racing at right now he sets a very high level to beat.   Flying Agent 2.5pts @ 6/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

So we finally get to the last meeting of the season. After having a very good first year in 2020, last year was much harder and I wondered if it would be something that I just happened to fluke in 2020 rather than being good at it. Luckily this season has been good as well and I go into the final meeting with a healthy profit which if BOG was allowed would be even higher given some of the mad drifts there have been on some of the selections. Hopefully we can go out on a high and I'm really looking forward to what should be a fascinating card. Bell Ex One who was 3rd in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls at the Festival in March makes his hurdles debut in Australia and goes head to head with Stern Idol in a race I can't wait to watch.
Race 1 It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 2 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He isn't the first ex-European horse to go down this route having failed on the flat so he is likely to have the class, but I can't say I was overly impressed by his hurdles trial so I am happy enough to look elsewhere at the prices. Cotton Eye Joe is nowhere near Port Guillaume's class on the flat, but he did win a BM58 last time. He looked very novicey in his trial though and that puts me off. Upswing gets a run with their being a scratching and he's been running OK in BM70's/78's on the flat. He's harder to judge on his hurdling ability as he's been allowed to pot around at the back in a couple of trials. He's one to be wary off. The selection though is going to be one who has run in a hurdles race in the shape of Double You Tee. That was a good maiden hurdle he was 4th in at Pakenham on his debut and he wasn't able to run to his best in a race at Flemington last time. As much as you can't take trial results at face value the fact, he was in front of Bell Ex One 12 days ago is pleasing.    Double You Tee 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power   Race 2 This is a maiden hurdle for those who have low ratings on the flat so as you can imagine it is a low-class affair. If pushed Capellini might be worth an e/w play given he has finished 3rd in his last 3 maidens, but at the same time you just wonder if one of the hurdling newcomers is probably going to be good enough to beat him. I find it hard to have any confidence behind any of them though so I will pass the race over from a betting point of view.   Race 3 An interesting BM120 Hurdle. Chains Of Honour is a short price just as he was at Sandown last time, but he seemed to over-race that day and he didn't see his race out. He ended up finishing 3rd and to me it was more of a case that he didn't look like he stayed rather than him needing this deep ground which it was when he won his maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. He has the ability to win this especially given the yard he's coming from, but he looks worth opposing at the prices. Yulong Rising finished in 2nd in that race which was his best run to date over hurdles and he runs well in heavy ground so he has a chance. Sky Hero was beaten 0.2L by Bedford a couple of weeks ago and I think that was good form so he is another one who wouldn't be a surprise winner. I am going to back two against the field. I don't think it was a strong maiden which Castrofrancaru won a couple of weeks ago, but he was really impressive and that came on the back of 2 wins on the flat. The ground will be more testing here, but both those flat wins came on a heavy track and he looks to have a good chance to me in a race like this. The other one that interests me is the hurdling newcomer Star Stock. I find it interesting that his good trainer has chosen to go into handicap company first up rather than run in a maiden and I liked the way he trailed a couple of weeks ago. He won his maiden on the flat 2 back and then was a good 3rd in a BM70 at Geelong after that. He could be overpriced because he hasn't been over hurdles yet.   Castrofrancaru 1pt @ 100/30 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes Star Stock 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and it really does look like a match between ex-French hurdler Stern Idol and the ex-Paul Nicholls horse Bell Ex One. Stern Idol has been so impressive in his two hurdles starts in Australia winning both by huge margins. There is every chance he is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment although clearly the yard also have Saunter Boy so they haven't needed to run him in the bigger races until now. He's obviously very short, but in the shape of Bell Ex One he certainly faces his best opponent yet. He only ran once for Nicholls having been in Ireland previously, but he finished a very good 3rd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That race has worked out pretty well so far and did feature one of the Mullins hot pots of the week Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd to Brazil. That was an excellent run and he was staying on to good effect up the hill. As for the ground he should be fine on a Heavy 10 given what he won on in Ireland. He's had a perfectly respectable flat run and a trial since coming to Australia. It's no surprise that Stern Idol is such a short price as the Australian's know more about him and I would have him as favourite as well because I do think he's very good, but Bell Ex One is clearly a very good horse as well and I don't think there will be as much between them as the betting suggests so from a value point of view I have to be with the Cheltenham Festival 3rd.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 5 Having been keen on Roland Garros in previous races I left him alone last time and he duly made all and won. He should appreciate this even softer ground as well and its clear why he is favourite. I am going to take him on though with Brungle Bertie. Even though he was odds on on his chase debut at Pakenham and he was 2nd I did put up the winner that day and I think the form is good especially as there was a big space to the 3rd. He was then 4th in the Crisp last time, but that was a good effort and this is an easier race. It's hard to fancy any of the Pateman runners who have been very average this year. Mighty Oasis was a good winner over hurdles although was poor last time. He could be a player if he bounces back, but I suspect it will be between the top 2 in the betting and Brungle Bertie is the value for me.   Brungle Bertie 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 6 The biggest race of the Aussie Jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase and it looks a fascinating affair. The Cossack is the challenger from New Zealand, but he has to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the Grand National Hurdle where he was beaten a long way out. He is surely better than that and I think a return to heavier ground will help his chances as well. Bee Tee Junior won this in 2020 on his first chase start and after threatening to come back to form he finally did so a couple of weeks ago when he was 2nd to Roland Garros given him a lot of weight. I'm not sure that effort is quite good enough to land this, but he should run well again on the back of it. St Arnicca is trying to copy what Bee Tee Junior did in finishing 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle and then win this on his 1st start over fences. I thought he was a little flattered to finish as close as he did to Saunter Boy as the winner kicked for home plenty early enough and I think he's better over shorter so it was no real surprise something got close to him. He is a contender though.   Finally we get to the form from the Crisp Steeplechase where the front 3 home, Flying Agent, Yulong Place and Valac, do battle again. Flying Agent was just so good in that race that I don't see how either of them can reverse the form. He has been prepared to peak at the backend of the season this time around and he is clearly doing just that. I find it hard to see Flying Agent getting beat here, obviously The Cossack and St Arnicca are new rivals, but I think at the level he is racing at right now he sets a very high level to beat.   Flying Agent 2.5pts @ 6/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

We head to Coleraine on Sunday morning for 3 hurdles and a chase. It's a tricky card, but hopefully we can get another profit.
Race 1 Only one of the 10 runners has run in a hurdle race so far and Buffalo Bill shouldn't be good enough to win this. That makes this contest very tricky especially as all these horses are low grade ones on the flat so there isn't a classy flat horse in the field either. Having watched the hurdle trials and based on the flat runs it does look like Castrofrancaru is the one to beat. He looked good in his trial and beat and a couple of these in it. He has also won his last two on the flat so comes here in good form. El Campeon has shown little on the flat of late, but I did like his trial win last week. He looked really perked up for jumping hurdles and he should be able to make a better hurdler than flat horse. The one small concern is that maybe he might be too keen to see out the trip. Ultimately though this isn't really a race I want to get involved with from a betting point of view given Double You Tee is 2nd in the betting yet is unlikely to get a run as he's 3rd emergancy.    Race 2 If Heir To The Throne can handle the 7-day back-up then he looks the one to beat here. I thought he was very good at Sandown last week in what wasn't a bad race for the grade because I think a decent horse in Chains Of Honour was back in 3rd. He sat just off the decent pace which was set by Slipintothis who reoppeses here despite tiring badly into 5th place last week. His jockey told the stewards he needs a wetter track and the fact he won his maiden hurdle in a Heavy 10 backs that up. It looks like we will get similar ground to last week so I can't see the form being reversed. Mighty Oasis looks the biggest danger as if it wasn't for the superb Stern Idol he would be coming here looking for a 4-timer. As it is he won his maiden after some good place efforts, then bumped into Stern Idol before winning at Casterton 3 weeks of weeks ago. Tolemac was 1.5L behind in 2nd, but I think the form will be upheld. Mighty Oasis made a bit of an error at the last, but he picked up well again and was well on top at the line. The concern for me about his chances though is that he and Slipintothis might take each other on up front and set it up for the closer in Heir To The Throne. That is why I am siding with the Sandown winner.   Heir To The Throne 1pt @ 6/5 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 3 A tricky low-grade hurdle and you could put a few into the mix. Fort Charles hasn't really gone on from his Hamilton maiden win and he has 8.25L in front of Sky Hero who was 3rd that day. Sky Hero followed up at Warrnambool the following month and although he was only 4th back their last month it was behind Stern Idol so I don't think it was as bad a run as it looks on paper. He's not run since, but I think he can reverse the form with Fort Charles and maybe win this. Dr Dependable seemed to turn up in every maiden hurdle going, but he finally won one at Casterton last month. That was a good effort as he had Heir To The Throne in 2nd and American In Paris in 4th. Not surprisingly he was outclassed last week in the Grand National Hurdle. This is more his level. Bedford was 3rd behind Hostar and Heir To The Throne on his hurdles debut at Pakenham last month and its interesting they have chosen this contest over the maiden hurdle which he would have a very good chance in. Murrumbidgee River was very disappointing on hurdles debut, but he was found to be lame so that can be looked over. He's hardly one of his stables leading lights, but he would be a surprise winner. Finally, Rosie Rose was a solid 3rd on her hurdle debut at Pakenham and she has place claims at least.   I was going to back Bedford, but he's 11/10 and that is plenty short enough in a race like this. Instead, I will back Dr Dependable e/w as he will appreciate this class drop and he's a good a chance as any of landing this.   Dr Dependable 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 4 This is a clear class drop for the top weight Bee Tee Junior and if he was able to find his best then I think he can win this. The problem is as much as he travelled quite well into the race last week in the Crisp, I just thought it was disappointing he didn't really finish off the race all that well. I backed him last week, but even with the class drop I find it hard to fancy him here. Pateman is focusing on training on Sunday and he was 4 runners in this who all ran at Casterton last time. Historic was behind Laylite and Power Of Words when 4th to Elvision, but it was hist first run for a month after he wasn't able to go with Elvision over the same course and distance. Pateman has said that he eased off him after that tough race and he was under-cooked going into the race last time. The fact he was able to finish as close as he did given that was very creditable. He is 2/2 here having won this race in 2020 and then winning here last August at a meeting I think was moved from Casterton if I remember rightly. The biggest danger looks to be Under The Bridge. After making bad mistakes at the 18th fence twice at Warrnambool he finally got safely over that fence and won their last month. He beat Mustang Harry who franked the form by winning at Pakenham the next start. He was 3rd at the same meeting behind Valac who is better than any of these, so it was a good run as well. This looks a good race for him.   Roland Garros has been one I have put up before this season, but he just seems to have become disappointing and I don't think the ground will be soft enough. Another I have put up a few times is Onset although to much more success. She makes he chase debut here and I thought she did well enough in her one trial to date. She has run 12 times over hurdles since April and in March she also had 3 flat runs so for her to still be running as well as she is of great credit to her and her trainer. She ran perfectly well when 4th in the Grand National Hurdle last week and you couldn't rule her out here. San Remo was a close 3rd in this last year and he had a nice prep on the level last time to get him ready for this.   I was surprised to see Roland Garros as favourite and he is well worth taking on for me. Historic looks a big price and he is the main bet e/w, but I will also cover Under The Bridge as he looks the biggest danger.   Historic 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Under The Bridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power

We head to Coleraine on Sunday morning for 3 hurdles and a chase. It's a tricky card, but hopefully we can get another profit.
Race 1 Only one of the 10 runners has run in a hurdle race so far and Buffalo Bill shouldn't be good enough to win this. That makes this contest very tricky especially as all these horses are low grade ones on the flat so there isn't a classy flat horse in the field either. Having watched the hurdle trials and based on the flat runs it does look like Castrofrancaru is the one to beat. He looked good in his trial and beat and a couple of these in it. He has also won his last two on the flat so comes here in good form. El Campeon has shown little on the flat of late, but I did like his trial win last week. He looked really perked up for jumping hurdles and he should be able to make a better hurdler than flat horse. The one small concern is that maybe he might be too keen to see out the trip. Ultimately though this isn't really a race I want to get involved with from a betting point of view given Double You Tee is 2nd in the betting yet is unlikely to get a run as he's 3rd emergancy.    Race 2 If Heir To The Throne can handle the 7-day back-up then he looks the one to beat here. I thought he was very good at Sandown last week in what wasn't a bad race for the grade because I think a decent horse in Chains Of Honour was back in 3rd. He sat just off the decent pace which was set by Slipintothis who reoppeses here despite tiring badly into 5th place last week. His jockey told the stewards he needs a wetter track and the fact he won his maiden hurdle in a Heavy 10 backs that up. It looks like we will get similar ground to last week so I can't see the form being reversed. Mighty Oasis looks the biggest danger as if it wasn't for the superb Stern Idol he would be coming here looking for a 4-timer. As it is he won his maiden after some good place efforts, then bumped into Stern Idol before winning at Casterton 3 weeks of weeks ago. Tolemac was 1.5L behind in 2nd, but I think the form will be upheld. Mighty Oasis made a bit of an error at the last, but he picked up well again and was well on top at the line. The concern for me about his chances though is that he and Slipintothis might take each other on up front and set it up for the closer in Heir To The Throne. That is why I am siding with the Sandown winner.   Heir To The Throne 1pt @ 6/5 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 3 A tricky low-grade hurdle and you could put a few into the mix. Fort Charles hasn't really gone on from his Hamilton maiden win and he has 8.25L in front of Sky Hero who was 3rd that day. Sky Hero followed up at Warrnambool the following month and although he was only 4th back their last month it was behind Stern Idol so I don't think it was as bad a run as it looks on paper. He's not run since, but I think he can reverse the form with Fort Charles and maybe win this. Dr Dependable seemed to turn up in every maiden hurdle going, but he finally won one at Casterton last month. That was a good effort as he had Heir To The Throne in 2nd and American In Paris in 4th. Not surprisingly he was outclassed last week in the Grand National Hurdle. This is more his level. Bedford was 3rd behind Hostar and Heir To The Throne on his hurdles debut at Pakenham last month and its interesting they have chosen this contest over the maiden hurdle which he would have a very good chance in. Murrumbidgee River was very disappointing on hurdles debut, but he was found to be lame so that can be looked over. He's hardly one of his stables leading lights, but he would be a surprise winner. Finally, Rosie Rose was a solid 3rd on her hurdle debut at Pakenham and she has place claims at least.   I was going to back Bedford, but he's 11/10 and that is plenty short enough in a race like this. Instead, I will back Dr Dependable e/w as he will appreciate this class drop and he's a good a chance as any of landing this.   Dr Dependable 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 4 This is a clear class drop for the top weight Bee Tee Junior and if he was able to find his best then I think he can win this. The problem is as much as he travelled quite well into the race last week in the Crisp, I just thought it was disappointing he didn't really finish off the race all that well. I backed him last week, but even with the class drop I find it hard to fancy him here. Pateman is focusing on training on Sunday and he was 4 runners in this who all ran at Casterton last time. Historic was behind Laylite and Power Of Words when 4th to Elvision, but it was hist first run for a month after he wasn't able to go with Elvision over the same course and distance. Pateman has said that he eased off him after that tough race and he was under-cooked going into the race last time. The fact he was able to finish as close as he did given that was very creditable. He is 2/2 here having won this race in 2020 and then winning here last August at a meeting I think was moved from Casterton if I remember rightly. The biggest danger looks to be Under The Bridge. After making bad mistakes at the 18th fence twice at Warrnambool he finally got safely over that fence and won their last month. He beat Mustang Harry who franked the form by winning at Pakenham the next start. He was 3rd at the same meeting behind Valac who is better than any of these, so it was a good run as well. This looks a good race for him.   Roland Garros has been one I have put up before this season, but he just seems to have become disappointing and I don't think the ground will be soft enough. Another I have put up a few times is Onset although to much more success. She makes he chase debut here and I thought she did well enough in her one trial to date. She has run 12 times over hurdles since April and in March she also had 3 flat runs so for her to still be running as well as she is of great credit to her and her trainer. She ran perfectly well when 4th in the Grand National Hurdle last week and you couldn't rule her out here. San Remo was a close 3rd in this last year and he had a nice prep on the level last time to get him ready for this.   I was surprised to see Roland Garros as favourite and he is well worth taking on for me. Historic looks a big price and he is the main bet e/w, but I will also cover Under The Bridge as he looks the biggest danger.   Historic 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Under The Bridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power

We head to Coleraine on Sunday morning for 3 hurdles and a chase. It's a tricky card, but hopefully we can get another profit.
Race 1 Only one of the 10 runners has run in a hurdle race so far and Buffalo Bill shouldn't be good enough to win this. That makes this contest very tricky especially as all these horses are low grade ones on the flat so there isn't a classy flat horse in the field either. Having watched the hurdle trials and based on the flat runs it does look like Castrofrancaru is the one to beat. He looked good in his trial and beat and a couple of these in it. He has also won his last two on the flat so comes here in good form. El Campeon has shown little on the flat of late, but I did like his trial win last week. He looked really perked up for jumping hurdles and he should be able to make a better hurdler than flat horse. The one small concern is that maybe he might be too keen to see out the trip. Ultimately though this isn't really a race I want to get involved with from a betting point of view given Double You Tee is 2nd in the betting yet is unlikely to get a run as he's 3rd emergancy.    Race 2 If Heir To The Throne can handle the 7-day back-up then he looks the one to beat here. I thought he was very good at Sandown last week in what wasn't a bad race for the grade because I think a decent horse in Chains Of Honour was back in 3rd. He sat just off the decent pace which was set by Slipintothis who reoppeses here despite tiring badly into 5th place last week. His jockey told the stewards he needs a wetter track and the fact he won his maiden hurdle in a Heavy 10 backs that up. It looks like we will get similar ground to last week so I can't see the form being reversed. Mighty Oasis looks the biggest danger as if it wasn't for the superb Stern Idol he would be coming here looking for a 4-timer. As it is he won his maiden after some good place efforts, then bumped into Stern Idol before winning at Casterton 3 weeks of weeks ago. Tolemac was 1.5L behind in 2nd, but I think the form will be upheld. Mighty Oasis made a bit of an error at the last, but he picked up well again and was well on top at the line. The concern for me about his chances though is that he and Slipintothis might take each other on up front and set it up for the closer in Heir To The Throne. That is why I am siding with the Sandown winner.   Heir To The Throne 1pt @ 6/5 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 3 A tricky low-grade hurdle and you could put a few into the mix. Fort Charles hasn't really gone on from his Hamilton maiden win and he has 8.25L in front of Sky Hero who was 3rd that day. Sky Hero followed up at Warrnambool the following month and although he was only 4th back their last month it was behind Stern Idol so I don't think it was as bad a run as it looks on paper. He's not run since, but I think he can reverse the form with Fort Charles and maybe win this. Dr Dependable seemed to turn up in every maiden hurdle going, but he finally won one at Casterton last month. That was a good effort as he had Heir To The Throne in 2nd and American In Paris in 4th. Not surprisingly he was outclassed last week in the Grand National Hurdle. This is more his level. Bedford was 3rd behind Hostar and Heir To The Throne on his hurdles debut at Pakenham last month and its interesting they have chosen this contest over the maiden hurdle which he would have a very good chance in. Murrumbidgee River was very disappointing on hurdles debut, but he was found to be lame so that can be looked over. He's hardly one of his stables leading lights, but he would be a surprise winner. Finally, Rosie Rose was a solid 3rd on her hurdle debut at Pakenham and she has place claims at least.   I was going to back Bedford, but he's 11/10 and that is plenty short enough in a race like this. Instead, I will back Dr Dependable e/w as he will appreciate this class drop and he's a good a chance as any of landing this.   Dr Dependable 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 4 This is a clear class drop for the top weight Bee Tee Junior and if he was able to find his best then I think he can win this. The problem is as much as he travelled quite well into the race last week in the Crisp, I just thought it was disappointing he didn't really finish off the race all that well. I backed him last week, but even with the class drop I find it hard to fancy him here. Pateman is focusing on training on Sunday and he was 4 runners in this who all ran at Casterton last time. Historic was behind Laylite and Power Of Words when 4th to Elvision, but it was hist first run for a month after he wasn't able to go with Elvision over the same course and distance. Pateman has said that he eased off him after that tough race and he was under-cooked going into the race last time. The fact he was able to finish as close as he did given that was very creditable. He is 2/2 here having won this race in 2020 and then winning here last August at a meeting I think was moved from Casterton if I remember rightly. The biggest danger looks to be Under The Bridge. After making bad mistakes at the 18th fence twice at Warrnambool he finally got safely over that fence and won their last month. He beat Mustang Harry who franked the form by winning at Pakenham the next start. He was 3rd at the same meeting behind Valac who is better than any of these, so it was a good run as well. This looks a good race for him.   Roland Garros has been one I have put up before this season, but he just seems to have become disappointing and I don't think the ground will be soft enough. Another I have put up a few times is Onset although to much more success. She makes he chase debut here and I thought she did well enough in her one trial to date. She has run 12 times over hurdles since April and in March she also had 3 flat runs so for her to still be running as well as she is of great credit to her and her trainer. She ran perfectly well when 4th in the Grand National Hurdle last week and you couldn't rule her out here. San Remo was a close 3rd in this last year and he had a nice prep on the level last time to get him ready for this.   I was surprised to see Roland Garros as favourite and he is well worth taking on for me. Historic looks a big price and he is the main bet e/w, but I will also cover Under The Bridge as he looks the biggest danger.   Historic 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Under The Bridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Updated totals are total stakes 98.5 total returns 136.78 for a profit of 38.28. Just two more meetings now at Coleraine next week and then the big finale at Ballarat on the 28th. Equates to 10 races unless we get any divisions.

Updated totals are total stakes 98.5 total returns 136.78 for a profit of 38.28. Just two more meetings now at Coleraine next week and then the big finale at Ballarat on the 28th. Equates to 10 races unless we get any divisions.

Updated totals are total stakes 98.5 total returns 136.78 for a profit of 38.28. Just two more meetings now at Coleraine next week and then the big finale at Ballarat on the 28th. Equates to 10 races unless we get any divisions.

Another good morning with Flying Agent and Saunter Boy landing the two big races. Both returning bigger prices than I put them up at.

Another good morning with Flying Agent and Saunter Boy landing the two big races. Both returning bigger prices than I put them up at.

A cracking week last Sunday with Stern Idol winning with ease again and getting a 10/1 winner as well. This week we are back to Casterton for the final time this season with 3 races over the jumps on the card.
Race 1
As much as last week was very good it was annoying to see Hostar win the opener given I like the horse but wondered if he might find at least one of the newcomers too good. In the end he won by the narrowest of margins and the horse who was 2nd is the odds-on favourite to win this on the seven day back up. Heir To The Throne put in a cracking performance on his hurdles debut and he deserves to be favourite here. I'm not sure he offers any great value though as much as he is the most likely winner. Laughing Grizzley was 3rd one place behind Heir To The Throne in a flat race at Cranbourne last time so has an obvious chance on his hurdles debut, but I wasn't that impressed in his hurdles trial. The only other one in single figures is American In Paris and he is going to be the selection. He was a solid 2nd over fences to Britannicus back in March and although he has been a bit disappointing since they have been in better races than this. In the Grand Annual he had an excuse as he was found to have a throat condition and finished lame. He was last on the flat at the beginning of the month, but has trialled well over hurdles since. Although he's been running over fences of late, he has got some good hurdles form including a 2nd to Valac on his last hurdles start. If he can run to that level then he has a winning chance. We have the usual maiden hurdle runners like Dr Dependable and Thurmanator and they have place claims especially the latter.   American In Paris 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 2 I have to be with Onset in this who yet again as been looked over in the betting which makes little sense to me. She has won for us twice at decent odds this season at Sale and over course and distance when just beating Tolemac. Since then she has finished 2nd to an impressive Blandford Lad at Warrnambool and then was a good 3rd to Saunter Boy at Pakenham last week. This will be her 4th run in a month and the possibility is it will eventually catch up with her, but otherwise I think she should be just about favourite for this. Big Blue and Tolemac head the market. Big Blue did easily beat Onset at Hamilton in May, but I think Onset has improved since then and I think she would have been in front of him at Warrnambool 3 weeks ago. Big Blue was hampered at the last that day and ended up pulling up, but Onset was already just about in front of him and was going the better. Tolemac was also in that race and was back in 5th so that is twice Onset has beaten him and I think she can do so again. Mighty Oasis is the other one with a chance and was just behind Tolemac in a maiden hurdle at Hamilton in May and he then went and won his maiden at Warrnambool. He went back there 3 weeks ago, but bumped into Stern Idol, but did manage best of the rest. For me Big Blue is the biggest danger, but Onset is over priced yet again and is the bet for me.   Onset 1pt @ 5/1 with everyone   Race 3 Elvision is 2/2 this season over course and distance and even though he's up in the weights again I just don't see him getting beat. He loves the hedge fences here and I just think he has a class edge on his rivals. Strictly speaking Mapping does have a chance of reversing the form from last time as he was 1.75L behind him in 2nd and he has run OK since in the Thackeray at Warrnambool when 3rd to Flying Agent. I don't think the form will be reversed though and I'd be surprised if Elvision didn't land the hat-trick.   Elvison 4pts @ 4/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes

A cracking week last Sunday with Stern Idol winning with ease again and getting a 10/1 winner as well. This week we are back to Casterton for the final time this season with 3 races over the jumps on the card.
Race 1
As much as last week was very good it was annoying to see Hostar win the opener given I like the horse but wondered if he might find at least one of the newcomers too good. In the end he won by the narrowest of margins and the horse who was 2nd is the odds-on favourite to win this on the seven day back up. Heir To The Throne put in a cracking performance on his hurdles debut and he deserves to be favourite here. I'm not sure he offers any great value though as much as he is the most likely winner. Laughing Grizzley was 3rd one place behind Heir To The Throne in a flat race at Cranbourne last time so has an obvious chance on his hurdles debut, but I wasn't that impressed in his hurdles trial. The only other one in single figures is American In Paris and he is going to be the selection. He was a solid 2nd over fences to Britannicus back in March and although he has been a bit disappointing since they have been in better races than this. In the Grand Annual he had an excuse as he was found to have a throat condition and finished lame. He was last on the flat at the beginning of the month, but has trialled well over hurdles since. Although he's been running over fences of late, he has got some good hurdles form including a 2nd to Valac on his last hurdles start. If he can run to that level then he has a winning chance. We have the usual maiden hurdle runners like Dr Dependable and Thurmanator and they have place claims especially the latter.   American In Paris 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 2 I have to be with Onset in this who yet again as been looked over in the betting which makes little sense to me. She has won for us twice at decent odds this season at Sale and over course and distance when just beating Tolemac. Since then she has finished 2nd to an impressive Blandford Lad at Warrnambool and then was a good 3rd to Saunter Boy at Pakenham last week. This will be her 4th run in a month and the possibility is it will eventually catch up with her, but otherwise I think she should be just about favourite for this. Big Blue and Tolemac head the market. Big Blue did easily beat Onset at Hamilton in May, but I think Onset has improved since then and I think she would have been in front of him at Warrnambool 3 weeks ago. Big Blue was hampered at the last that day and ended up pulling up, but Onset was already just about in front of him and was going the better. Tolemac was also in that race and was back in 5th so that is twice Onset has beaten him and I think she can do so again. Mighty Oasis is the other one with a chance and was just behind Tolemac in a maiden hurdle at Hamilton in May and he then went and won his maiden at Warrnambool. He went back there 3 weeks ago, but bumped into Stern Idol, but did manage best of the rest. For me Big Blue is the biggest danger, but Onset is over priced yet again and is the bet for me.   Onset 1pt @ 5/1 with everyone   Race 3 Elvision is 2/2 this season over course and distance and even though he's up in the weights again I just don't see him getting beat. He loves the hedge fences here and I just think he has a class edge on his rivals. Strictly speaking Mapping does have a chance of reversing the form from last time as he was 1.75L behind him in 2nd and he has run OK since in the Thackeray at Warrnambool when 3rd to Flying Agent. I don't think the form will be reversed though and I'd be surprised if Elvision didn't land the hat-trick.   Elvison 4pts @ 4/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes

Updated stakes for the season ahead of Sunday's meeting are Stakes 85pts Returns 120.33pts for a profit of 35.33.

Updated stakes for the season ahead of Sunday's meeting are Stakes 85pts Returns 120.33pts for a profit of 35.33.

Well that was a very profitable morning. Annoyed I didn’t put the first winner up but the rest won and great to get Mustang Harry over the line.

The profits continued a couple of weeks ago at Warrnambool and Stern Idol was especially impressive. He goes again at Pakenham on Sunday morning where we have an all jumps card made up of 6 races. Also of interest is ex UK jockey Fergus Gregory (guessing it's him and not another jockey with the same name) has rides on 2 favourites on the card so might get his first win in Australia.   Race 1 The opener is a Maiden Hurdle over 3200m and it has the potential to throw up a few winners as we have a few fair sorts coming from the flat in the shape of Bedford, Double You Tee, Heir To The Throne and Teofilo Star. The latter of those is ridden by Fergus Gregory and unless there is another Fergus Gregory then I am guessing it is the British jockey. He had a ride at Casterton last month, but he could well ride his first winner Down Under on Sunday as Teofilo Star has a good chance and he has a better chance in the 2nd race. Out of those with hurdles experience I thought Hostar ran really well at Warrnambool, but in the end Chains Of Honour had too much class for him and whilst he should find a maiden at some stage I can't help thinking at least one of the other 4 will prove too strong for him. As for who might win I don't have a strong view and I am happy to sit and watch for future races.   Race 2 This Maiden Hurdle is over 3500m and unlike the first race it looks a pretty weak contest. Those with hurdles form already don't exactly set a tough standard. Dr Dependable has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 4th. 4th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd and 3rd in his completions (he fell once) over hurdles this season so he's fairly consistant, but the 2nd wasn't strong form in my view and he has tended to be well beaten despite finishing in the places. He has been behind Thurmanator and it is 1 each in the head to head with Capellani. Thurmanator was 2nd when Dr Dependable was 3rd at Sale last month and that was behind a very impressive winner in Twin Spinner. He fell at Warrnambool last time and he was still in contention for a place where Capellani was 3rd and Dr Dependable was 4th. I guess one of those could win at last, but I am happy to look elsewhere. Murrumbidgee Bridge is making his hurdles debut for top connections, but he hasn't exactly been in good form on the flat and I've not thought a great deal of his hurdle trials either. Slipintothis is the favourite and whilst I wouldn't want to get carried away with him I do think he's the most likely winner and worth a small bet. He had lost his way a bit on the flat this year, but his last flat run 3 weeks ago in a BM70 at Sandown was solid. He's had 3 hurdle trials and although there is no footage of the one this week, I thought he jumped well in his other two where he was given a very quiet school round. He was only beaten a length in that trial at Warrnambool on Wednesday so clearly he is nearing his peak and I think he could have the beating of these. British jockey Fergus Gregory takes the ride and is Teofilo Star hasn't won in the first then this could be his first winner in Australia.   Slipintothis 1pt @ 6/5 with most bookies   Race 3 Stern Idol was so impressive on his Aussie hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago at Warrnambool that I can't see him getting beaten here. It's a slightly stronger race, but I don't think he has too much to worry about if he repeats that performance. Big Blue is a good horse and he was eased after getting hampered at the last a couple of weeks ago, but I doubt he would have won and he might not have even been in the frame as he was looking very one paced at the time. Stern Idol does have to give a fair bit of weight away to the others, but they haven't shown the sort of form that would be able to have beaten Stern Idol the last time and so I just can't see it here either. I think he will go off a fair bit shorter than he is at the moment and I think even at odds on he is value.   Stern Idol 5pts @ 3/4 with Bet365   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and 5 of the 6 ran at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago and Onset ran best of those when finishing 2nd although Tamarack and El Diez were very close to her in 3rd and 4th. Count Zero got tired after a poor jump at the last and was 7th whilst the returning Bee Tee Junior was one place in front of him in 6th. I'm sure Bee Tee Junior will improve for that run and stepping up to 3500m should see some more improvement as well so he could end finishing best of those. He is sure to be building towards one of the big races at Sandown on August 7th. They all come up against Saunter Boy who is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment. He hasn't been seen over hurdles since winning the Australian Hurdle in May, but whilst the others ran at Warrnambool he ran at Flemington the same weekend and ran a very creditable 5th of 10. That should put him spot on for this and he should make it 4/4 over hurdles this season. I was tempted to put Saunter Boy in a double with Stern Idol, but I think Stern Idol is a good enough bet by himself, so instead I will have a small forecast on Saunter Boy to beat Bee Tee Junior.   Saunter Boy to beat Bee Tee Junior 0.5pts f/c   Race 5 A Maiden Steeplechase over 3500m and the two at the head of the market are Bow Thruster and Brungle Bertie. The former hadn't shown too much in his first two hurdles starts, but was much better at Warrnambool last month when making the running and just got caught late on by Mighty Oasis. That's decent enough form in the context of this race and he did beat Valac in a steeple trial at Traralgon a couple of weeks ago, but annoyingly there is no footage of it. There is footage of Brungle Bertie's trial and it was OK, but no more than that. He was very impressive over hurdles here in April so clearly Pakenham suits him well and his next two runs over hurdles were solid efforts. He was 4th in the Australian Hurdle and I think he didn't really see out the 3900m trip so dropping back 400m over a flat track should be a plus. He ran on the flat a couple of weeks ago, but it was clearly no more than a trial for him as he was well beaten. Zedstar will surely win over obstacles at some point, but he was well beaten on a Heavy 10 on his chase debut. I also don't think he was at his best back over hurdles at Casterton last time so I am happy to leave him alone. One I do think is overpriced is Mustang Harry who I didn't think was given a great ride behind Under The Bridge at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago. He was flying down the straight and I'm actually surprised the stewards didn't query the riders tactics because for me he waited way too long to ask the horse for an effort. He had shown glimmers of promise over hurdles last term and I actually think a repeat of the run last time would be good enough to win this. I think he looks a solid enough e/w bet at the prices with Bow Thruster the main danger.   Mustang Harry 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 6 The feature steeplechase race on the card and it backs up my thinking that this sphere is not strong at the moment. Runaway won at Sale last time beating Cheners and Dewrinkler, but I think Valac looked the winner until he fell. Now that was his 2nd fall on the bounce, but if he gets round safely I think he is the most likely winner of the race. He's had a couple of steeple trails since then and hopefully that has helped get his confidence back up. Te Kahu should improve for his first run in Oz, but he needs to and based on his New Zealand form I think he needs a longer trip than this. Under The Bridge got it done for us a couple of weeks ago and had Blood And Sand and Cheners in behind. That was a good effort and gives him a real chance in this although I think if Valac gets round then he can get the better of him. Valac is the main bet, but I will also cover Chief Sequoyah. He has been sent over from New Zealand and unlike Te Kahu this does look his sort of trip. The fact he's coming from New Zealand suggests that they think he can win races in Oz and given the lack of depth in this division then I am happy to have a bit on him as he could well prove good enough.   Valac 1.5pts @ 5/2 with William Hill Chief Sequoyah 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365

Well that was a very profitable morning. Annoyed I didn’t put the first winner up but the rest won and great to get Mustang Harry over the line.

Well that was a very profitable morning. Annoyed I didn’t put the first winner up but the rest won and great to get Mustang Harry over the line.

Well that was a very profitable morning. Annoyed I didn’t put the first winner up but the rest won and great to get Mustang Harry over the line.

Yeah should have won and apparently he was kicking himself afterwards. Said he hit a flat spot when he was asking him for an effort. Annoying as he was the best horse in the race. He should be winning races though and he jumps really well.

Yeah should have won and apparently he was kicking himself afterwards. Said he hit a flat spot when he was asking him for an effort. Annoying as he was the best horse in the race. He should be winning races though and he jumps really well.

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies