Darran

Boston v Altrincham Of course Boston went and won on Tuesday night when I decided not to back ten, but it was deserved and whilst Altrincham won last week against Yeovil, they have been pretty poor recently and Yeovil haven't been very good themselves. Both sides need the points at the opposite ends of the table, but with Boston being at home and in the better form I have to back them again. Boreham Wood v Hemel Hempstead Boreham Wood did win 3-0 last week against Salisbury, but apart from that they have not been in good form having lost 3 on the bounce and blowing any chance they had of the title. This is a local derby and since New Years Day Hemel have only lost twice. They lost 4-3 in the reverse fixture and also to Worthing. They have drawn their last 3 which does hint they might be easing up slightly for the season, but I think they will be up for this and are too big. Chesham v Farnborough Farnborough have been a bit all over the place and did win 4-1 last week, but that was over a Tonbridge side who had no manager. Chesham were in poor form, but are unbeaten in 4 and had a superb win at Torquay last week. They look a shade of value to win this. Hyde v Matlock (Northern Prem) Hyde have nothing to play for and Matlock need the points to stay up. They have spent plenty of money in an attempt to do so and this is a game they can win. Hyde struggled to beat Blyth last week. I will add the caveat that Matlock have only beaten Blyth themselves since Jan 14th, but they did draw with Guiseley two games back. Spalding v Alvechurch (Southern Prem Central) Just 2 points in Alvechurch's last 7 away games. Spalding have only lost to Harborough in their last 11 home games and they need the points to get into the play-offs. They should be odds on for this. Gosport v Hanwell (Southern Prem South) Hanwell were hammered 5-0 by Gloucester 4 games ago and were as bad as that scoreline suggests. Since then they have beaten 2nd place Totton, Sholing and then last Saturday were the first team to beat likely champions Merthyr since Gloucester beat them on August Bank Holiday Monday. Hopefully they can keep those performances up and they are worth backing to beat Gosport. Prices from 10pm Friday Boston 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill (take up to 6/4) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 13/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and William Hill (take up to 4/1) Chesham 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill (take up to 6/5) Matlock 1pt 21/10 with Betfred (take up to 15/8) Spalding 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred (take up to 5/6) Hanwell 1pt 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Leaderboard turned out to be a superb bet last week as he won very easily. Just a shame there had to be the uncertainty about if he was fit or not. Onto this Sunday and sadly it is the final ever jumps meeting at Pakenham. This was the meeting I went to last season and it has a couple of historic races on the card and its a shame Pakenham have decided not to have jumps racing anymore. To be honest I'm not hugely surprised as in the last couple of years they merged with Cranbourne and Cranbourne stopped greyhound racing. I think the club just wanted out of anything remotely controversial so the dogs and the jumps have gone. Sadly a lack of runners mean we only have 5 races as well and it is a bit concerning the lack of jumps runners so far this season. Hopefully at Warrnambool at the the end of the month we will see more. The other thing to note is they will have had to put a load of water down because they have been having 30 degree days and no rain. They have to get it to a soft 6 so I'm also slightly worried the ground will get too quick as its going to be hot on Sunday. Race 1 Not surprisingly Balinor is a short price favourite for this on the back of pushing the very good Loft close on hurdles debut at Warrnambool. He's the most likely winner and he is the best of these on the flat. I am though going to have a small e/w bet on Havisham. He's been last in his 2 flat starts this prep including at Mornington last Sunday, but it is his hurdle trial that impressed me. He jumped really well that day and there is every chance he is going to be a better hurdler than flat horse. Havisham 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Race 2 Point Nepean is odds on fav for this winner of one hurdle. He won a weak handicap on hurdles debut here last July and then was well beaten by The Cunning Fox at Sandown. He then got much closer to that one in the feature hurdle at Ballarat on the final day of the season as he went down 0.46L. He's had 4 hurdle trials leading into this, but hasn't run in a race since the Melbourne Cup carnival. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott won this race last year and they have a fascinating contender in the shape of Road Runner this year. He had 3 starts in New Zealand, 1 of which has over hurdles in heavy ground over 3000m which he won. He also lost his maiden tag on the flat. He's had 3 hurdle trials since coming to Oz and I was impressed on the whole in the last of them at Ballarat on Monday. The only slight negative is he ran down the flights a couple of times, but he really attacked them and clearly loves jumping. Noonday Gun is 1/1 over hurdles having won on the final day of the season at Ballarat last year. He bolted up although it wasn't the strongest race and the winning time was 3 seconds slower than Point Nepean's race. Probably no real surprise that though given one was a maiden and one was a feature race. He had a couple of flat starts in October, but the only time he's been out since was when he won a hurdle trial on Monday. One of those 3 ought to win and I'm going with Road Runner. He gets weight from Point Nepean and Gai loves to have a good jumper to send to Warrnambool. He is unexposed and loves his jumping so at the prices I will take a chance he's good enough to beat Point Nepean. Road Runner 1pt @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral Race 3 The MJ Bourke Hurdle and the greatest jumper in Australia Stern Idol makes his jumps return. He won the feature chase on this card last year so its interesting they are sending him back over hurdles which he hasn't run over for a while. He was superb over hurdles though so that shouldn't bother him. It's a good race though as he goes up against Affluential. He won the maiden hurdle on this card last year having looked like he was going to be 2nd jumping the last and just overhauling Dubai Moon late on. He then won his next 5 races both over hurdles and on the flat. He then finished 2nd on the flat before landing the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown in August. That was a top effort and he then went to Western Australia in the summer to run on the flat. Back in Victoria now and he was just in front of Stern Idol in a BM70 at Sandown over 3000m when they were 2nd and 3rd. He then dropped back in trip on Wednesday and ran solidly over 2400m also at Sandown. That should leave him spot on for this. The Cunning Fox is also unbeaten over hurdles having won all 3 last year. He won his maiden here in July, then a BM120 very easily at Sandown before winning the big hurdle on the final card at Ballarat. He's had 3 starts in the flat in the last few weeks to get him fit for this as well as hurdle trials. The drift on Prismatic told a story at Warrnambool and the bet I put up turned out to be awful. He's better than that, but I'd be surprised if he was up to this. I am wary of Affluential and The Cunning Fox, but I have to be with Stern Idol. I don't think going back over hurdles will bother him and its going to take a personal best from the other two to beat him. Stern Idol 1pt @ 6/5 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral Race 4 The Mighty Spar drifted like a barge at Warrnambool last month. I put him up at 7/2 and his SP was 10/1! I was watching the race live so thought I had done my money as I guessed he wasn't fit. However he ran a hell of a race and looked the winner for a long way down the straight only to get overtaken by Tom Foolery and Duke Of Bedford. It was Duke Of Bedford's best effort at Warrnambool and whilst he has never run at Pakenham it should be a track that will suit him. For me though I have to be with The Mighty Spar to reverse the form. I reckon he surprised them with the run at Warrnambool as there is no way he would have drifted like that if he had been fully fit so with that jumps run under his belt I think he can reverse the form and its not like he needs to improve much anyway. Port Guillaume is the only other one in with a chance and he's the best of these on the flat and did win the Australian Hurdle at Sandown last June. His only chase start so far saw him beaten 60L into 4th in the Grand National last August. This trip will be better and he's had 4 flat starts since late January plus 3 steeple trials. He is a danger for sure, but I do prefer The Mighty Spar on the back of the Warrnambool run. I should just mention Carnamah who did beat Duke Of Bedford at Hamilton last May and was in front of him again at Sale when 2nd to The Mighty Spar. He did lose his way after that though and he probably needs it softer to slow the others down a bit as he is only picnic level on the flat. The Mighty Spar 2pts @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral Race 5 The feature race and the last ever jumps race at Pakenham. With Tom Foolery out we basically have a repeat of the steeplechase from Ballarat as only Blood And Sand didn't run in it. Leaderboard won very easily and I don't think the extra 750m will make any difference to the form. To be fair to Schabau he did jump better than I thought he would, but I just saw nothing that made me think anything from that race will be able to reverse the form. Blood And Sand is solid enough, but shouldn't be good enough to beat Leaderboard. I am amazed he is available at even money and he looks a very good bet at those odds. Leaderboard 3pts @ Evs with Ladbrokes and Coral

Southport v Oxford City Oxford looked in bit of trouble, but a superb run of form has seen them climb the table at the right time. They have won 4 of their last 6 and have drawn the other 2. Southport have lost 5 of their last 6 games and the only win was against a likely to be relegated Rushall. Oxford look a big price. Scarborough v Marine Marine were another team who looked like they were going down, but they have won 7 of their last 9 games and have drawn the other 2. That's an incredible run of form and it means they make appeal against a Scarborough side who aren't bad but just shouldn't be as big a favourite as they are. Slough v Aveley Taking a little bit of a flyer here as its been a while since they won, but Aveley's relegation was confirmed last Saturday when they lost 1-0 to Torquay. They haven't been playing badly though of late and sometimes you do see improvement from sides who are already down. Slough have not been good for a while now and their 4-0 win over Worthing in February really does stand out as they have only won once since. They lost 4-0 to Weymouth last week and were very bad. Hebburn v Ilkeston (Northern Prem) The slight concern is that Ilkeston have drawn a lot lately including a draw against Blyth, but they have only lost twice in their last 8 games and both were to Stockton. They have won 2 of their last 3 though so hopefully that means they have found their form again. Hebburn meanwhile have only won once in their last 10 games and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. Hendon v Chichester (Isthmian) The last time I opposed Hendon was with Hashtag and it ended up 3-3 after Hashtag were 2-0 and 3-2 up. Hendon still haven't won since then so their winless run stretches' for a real long time now. Chichester are in superb form having won 5 of their last 6 games and are trying to break into the play-offs. The fact they are odds against here looks big. Prices from Friday 11am Oxford City 2pts @ 23/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 13/5 and take up to 7/4) Marine 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365 (Oddchecker on have 3 bookies priced up which isn't right so they might be clear top price. Take up to 5/2) Aveley 1pt @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 3/1) Ilkeston 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up to 5/4) Chichester 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 4/5)

Just the 2 jumps races at Ballarat in the morning as the open hurdle didn't get enough decs. Race 1 Bitcoin is around even money for this and he has some solid flat form coming into this albeit he's not been in a race since mid Feb. He was 2nd to Hezafox in his last trial and he jumped pretty solidly. He might win, but he does seem a bit on the short side to me. Instead I will have a small bet on Teewaters who has been running in similar races on the flat to Bitcoin although he was off from last July until a month ago when having a fitness run at Edenhope. He was 2nd in his last hurdle trial and jumped well and the time of it was slightly quicker than Bitcoin's trial. He was pushed out to the line so for me they wanted him to get more fitness going into this. Those with hurdles experience don't overly excite me so I think the newcomers are the ones to focus on. Teewaters 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 Race 2 Schabau is odds on fav on his steeplechase debut, but I am happy to take him on as I did not like his jumping in his trial last time. He was very careful at his fences and wasn't that quick over them. Clearly he could improve, but he didn't strike me as a natural chaser and whilst he does have a bit of class about him I think he's well worth taking on at a short price. Bazini also makes his chasing debut and again didn't impress me in his trial. Instigator fell last week, but has the form at his best to go close. The one for me though is Leaderboard. Now I'm a little apprehensive because the yards two horses last week drifted massively. Prismatic ran as if he wasn't fully fit although to be fair The Mighty Spar did look the winner until close to the line. He was placed in some big races last season and was 2nd in the Grand National where he probably didn't quite see out the trip. He had a couple of flat runs in February and won his steeple trial last month. If I knew he was going to be fit I'd be more confident about him because on form he is the most likely winner. Leaderboard 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 NB Meeting isn't on Oddschecker yet so just using the Bet365 prices

Sorry not used to so many people responding to this thread so forgot to check! Yes there was a threat as towards the end of the season there were some bad falls for jockeys and horses and I don't think 3 coming down at one fence in the Grand National helped either. They had a massive review and have just tweaked things for the moment, but I will be honest and say I'm not sure how much longer it has. New Zealand also nearly axed it.

First thing to say is that it looks a really open renewal this year and there are quite a few with chances. As ever this guide is there to help you with your picks and there is never any pressure to follow the selections I have made. I got nowhere near the Cheltenham winner so hopefully I will be closer at Aintree. A Jet Of Our Own - Won a Hunter Chase at Cheltenham last May in testing ground when just picking up Fier Jaguen late on. Not threatened to repeat that form this season though and was a 21L 2nd to Joker De Mai at Leicester last month and prior to that he was pulled up at Taunton in the opening Hunter Chase of the season. Annamix - I was quite surprised he went off 5/1 for this race last year because it didn't really look like it would be a suitable test for him and he did end up quite far back before staying on to finish 3rd. He had the 2nd fastest finishing speed in the race, but I get the feeling the testing ground allowed him to make up the ground he was able to make. He did at least come into the race last year with a win, but this time around he has run poorly at both Naas and Gowran Park. Given he couldn't win the race last year, I struggle to see him even repeating last year's 3rd at the age of 12 given the form he is in and the fact it is going to be quicker ground. He has cheekpieces on for the 1st time and if they work then that might help him run well. Autonomous Cloud - Travelled well into the race at Leicester until a mistake at 2 out and then he couldn't keep up with Bennys King and was well beaten in the end. He was 4th in the Midlands National last year and he looks more of a stayer so I can see him getting outpaced round here on decent ground. Also given Bennys King record round here I don't see how he can reverse form with him. Bardenstown Lad - Has already had lots of racing as they tried to get him qualified for Cheltenham and it took longer than they probably thought it would. The Fakenham win isn't looking the strongest form although he didn't run too badly at Cheltenham until he faded out of contention towards the end. His jumping can be a problem and whilst I know the fences are easier than they were it will still be a concern round here. If he can get into a rhythm round here near the front end then I can actually see him doing better than he did at Cheltenham, but he still doesn't really make much appeal from a win point of view. Bennys King - He's 14 now, but he has been an absolute legend since going hunter chasing. In 2023 he was 2nd to Famous Clermont and then last year in very different conditions he was 2nd to Its On The Line. Interestingly Heidi Palin has ridden him in pretty much every hunter chase, but has not ridden him in this race before and wont again as Sean O'Connor who rode him last year in this and at Leicester the time before takes the ride again. You can ignore the handicap runs he had earlier in the season as they are always used as pipe openers for hunter chases. He never wears cheekpieces in them either, but when they go back on he is a different horse. The 2nd to Life Me Up at Warwick was good, but he topped that when winning at Leicester for the 2nd year running. It was another great front running performance and he just kept going in really testing ground to beat Autonomous Cloud be an eased down 8.5L. He is clearly still as good as he was the last couple of years so you could not rule out a deserved success in the race. Bothwell Bridge - Ex Nicky Henderson who won 3 points for his new connections last year. He ended the campaign finishing 3rd at Kelso to Yippee Ki Yay. This season he was 2nd on debut to Master Templar at Garthorpe and then I thought he ran a really good race at Leicester when 3rd to Bennys King. The problem is he didn't back that up back pointing last month when only 4th behind Trevada who pulled up at Newbury on his next start. Form doesn't look good enough to see him play a part. Dorking Cock - Was a well beaten 12th in this in 2 years ago and then tried his hand under rules and did win a handicap hurdle off 115 in November 2023. This year he has been back in points and Hunter Chases and whilst he pulled up at Down Royal on Boxing Day his other 3 runs haven't been too bad. He found this too sharp a test 2 years ago and everything he has done since suggests that will be the case again here. Eva's Oskar - Didn't run too badly in the 2023 Grand National when she was badly hampered at the 21st and unseated his jockey. My feeling is they wanted to qualify him for Cheltenham, but after only finishing 6th at Warwick on Hunter Chase debut it was going to be tough to qualify. He then won at Bangor and whilst he clearly had come on for the Warwick run, he was also a fortunate winner given Wilewonga's mistake at the last. He again showed his stamina at Catterick as he nearly caught Captain Tommy on the run-in after finding himself outpaced. This trip looks on the short side for me and I suspect he will get himself outpaced again. Famous Clermont - Had a superb 2023 which ended him putting in an impressive performance to win this race. Things didn't really go his way last season though as he had to miss this race because of the testing ground, he was beaten at Wincanton and he was well beaten at Punchestown. He did drop down in grade at Stratford and won the lady rider race on hunter chase night in easy fashion. Chris Barber has moved yards so James King now rides him whereas Will Biddick rode him in 2023. James put in one of the best rides I've seen in this race when winning on Cousin Pascal so that is certainly no negative. He was beaten by Take All at Milborne St Andrew on his seasonal return where he cruised into the lead, but faded badly on the run-in. It was probably a mixture of needing the run and sticky ground that caught him out that day. He then went to Cothelstone last month where he didn't come off the bridle to beat Acey Milan by a very easy 5L. He could easily regain his crown, but I do have a slight doubt about if he is still at the same level of ability as he was then, but hard to put you off if you do fancy him. Fix It All - Had struggled after coming over from France until ending up in Hunter Chases in 2023. He won twice at Ludlow and then was a close 2nd at Cheltenham. He then went back handicapping and there was some good pieces of form including a win at Hereford last May. His Hunter Chase debut for his new trainer at Carlisle wasn't great though as he was a well beaten 4th to Minella Trump. It's hard to see him getting involved on the back of that even if he comes on for the run. Frere d'Armes - Won at Fakenham off 123 in December and then struggled badly in the opening Hunter Chase of the season at Taunton. He put that behind him when winning at Ludlow, but then didn't quite see out the trip as well as Bardenstown Lad at Fakenham as he looked the winner until late on. He then dropped back to 2m4f at Ludlow a couple of weeks ago, but he was only 3rd behind Captain Tommy and I'd have him as 3rd best of the Skelton runners. Go Go Geronimo - Has yet to win a Hunter Chase despite going close a couple of times, but he looks on the downgrade and passed up his best chance to win one yet at Fakenham on Gold Cup Day. He shouldn't have any chance in this. Gracchus De Balme - Looks to be Joe's 1st string with the superb Huw Edwards choosing him of Willewonga. He was useful for Joesph O'Brien, but I do think Joe has improved him. He bolted up on his debut for the yard at Knightwick in November and he then ran a huge race in the Walrus at Haydock when 2nd to My Drogo. He was a bit keen and then his head carriage didn't always look great down the home straight and he hung left on the run-in. I possibly would have liked to have seen some headgear on after that run, but Joe knows what he's doing and he obviously doesn't think he needs it. I was surprised to see him run at Leicester just 10 days later and he ran a shocking race in the contest won by Bennys King. He's much better than that and I know Joe will have him absolutely spot on for this which would have been his main target at the start of the season. Jet Plane - Returned this season with a good run in the Bobby Renton at Wetherby in October, but he then unseated in the Rehearsal at Newcastle when beaten and didn't run well at Kempton over Christmas. He went back to Wetherby and had a very easy win in a weak hunter chase, but we got a better view as to where he is at when he ran in the Walrus at Haydock. He made a terrible mistake at the last which didn't help him although he still would have finished 3rd I think behind My Drogo and Gracchus De Balme. Jack Andrews has got the ride and he should be capable of going well. Joker De Mai - His trainer said he wasn't fit ahead of the opening hunter chase of the season at Taunton and he ran like he wasn't fit. He looked like he would finish 2nd to Angels Breath, but then faded and ended up being 3rd. He then went to Leicester for the 2m race they have and he bolted up by 21L. He is only 6, but he has experience of fences in France so this test should be fine for him. I can see him running well, but I do wonder if he quite has the ability at the moment to win this. Lifetime Ambition - No surprising that this has been the target as he was a good 4th in the Grand Sefton in 2022 and he was then unfortunate in that seasons Grand National as he was badly hampered by a loose horse and unseated at Valentines 1st time round. He went pointing/hunter chasing last season and won very easily over 2m4f at Cork a year ago, before pushing Its On The Line very close at Punchestown. I actually think that if you swap the jockeys around you get a different result as it was a Derek O'Connor special to get the winner up as Lifetime Ambition looked the winner for most of the home straight. This season he has had 2 very comfortable pointing success to set him up nicely for this and crucially he has had a jockey change to Rob James who will be looking for a big race double after winning on Wonderwall at Cheltenham. Master Tempar - Has won 12 times from 17 in points and was a very good 2nd in the 4m race at Cheltenham on Hunter Chase night. Wasn't so good in the John Corbet Cup the next time, but I'm not sure Stratford suited him. This season he beat Bardenstown Lad at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and then Bothwell Bridge at Garthorpe in February. I then fancied him for a Hunter Chase at Southwell a month ago, but the slow pace didn't suit him at all and he was only 5th. This drop down in trip is not in his favour, but he will get a strong pace to aim at which he didn't get last time. I can't see him winning, but if he stayed on in the top 6 that would not surprise me in the slightest. Blinkers replace cheekpieces for the 1st time. Milan Forth - Only won his maiden back in October at the 4th time of asking, but has risen quickly through the ranks and has won 2 hunter chases at Clonmel in January and then at Down Royal on St Patricks Day. He won both very comfortably despite the margins not being that big. The ground will not be an issue and whilst the bare form probably needs improving on you couldn't rule him out as a possible winner. My Drogo - A horse who was not able to show his true ability over fences due to injury, but he did win the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at this meeting 3 years ago. The fact he is 10 and has only run 12 times tells you how hard it has been to keep him sound. He has though proven he retains plenty of his old ability now he has been sent pointing/hunter chasing. He was 3rd on his return at Larkhill in December behind a horse called Givega, who is the most impressive hunter chase winner I have seen all season. The following month he had a very simple task back at Larkhill when winning easily at 2/5 and he then went to Haydock for the Walrus and he was given a very good ride by Will to defeat Gracchus De Balme and Jet Plane. He's been kept fresh for this since and he has to go on the shortlist of possible winners. Ontheropes - Stayed on strongly at Cheltenham after being out the back for most of the way and did well to get within 19L of Wonderwall given how far back he was. That was no surprise given he was 5th in last year's Scottish National. Both those runs, as well as his 2nd at Naas in February, suggest though this is not going to be a strong enough stamina test for him. Percussion - Has a great record round here with 1 2nd and 2 3rds from 5 starts. That is no doubt why his owner purchased him so he can have a nice spin round. The problem is though he looks to be regressing. He was a well beaten 7th in the Grand Sefton in April, his worst run yet round the course. He was finished 3rd in both hunter chases this season as well and the Southwell run last time he was gifted an easy lead and still could only finish 3rd. No doubt he will get round, but finishing in the top 10 will be more likely than the top 4. Presentandcounting - Has been sent off favourite for both hunter chases so far, but has finished 3rd at both Fakenham and Catterick. At Fakenham he wasn't given any peace in front as Bardenstown Lad kept up with him and in the end was 16L in front of him. Then at Catterick he did get an easier time of things up in front, but he just wasn't good enough and Captain Tommy and Eva's Oskar were both in front of him. He certainly won't get an easy lead here and makes little appeal. Pyleigh Court - If there is a bit of a wildcard in this year's race then he could be the one. He's very unexposed having had just the 10 races, but that is in part down to the fact he went missing for 650 days after finishing 3rd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May 2023. It was a solid first start under rules, but he has topped that in his two runs at Leicester in February. In the first of them he was very keen when attempting to settle at the back and in the end Ella just let him stride on and he was in front after the 4th. He was beaten 18L into 3rd by Givega in the end, but he looks a top class horse and Pyleigh Court did well to finish 3rd given how keen he had been in soft ground on his first run for 650 days. 12 days later he went back to Leicester for a maiden hunter chase and the only doubt in my mind was if he would bounce because otherwise he had the best form in the race. He settled much better than he did on his seasonal return and he bolted up by 15L, but it could have been more. He didn't beat much on that occasion, but it is more what he did on the previous start that makes me think he could be capable of running a big race at big odds. Ramillies - Would be a surprise winner to me given he was well beaten at Down Royal on Boxing Day, Willitgoahead easily beat him at Thurles in January and then he pulled when disappointing at Gowran Park last month. Senor Citizen - Struggled to land much of a blow in a couple of hunter chases last season and then returned after 10 month off to win at Higham by 15L. This is stronger, but should give his jockey a nice spin round. Willewonga - Joe O'Shea's 2nd string on jockey bookings, but I would not rule out a bold showing. He was 2nd to Gracchus De Balme on his seasonal return and then ran well in a hot Mens Ooen at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He ran very poorly on his next start in February, but 5 days after that he would have beaten Eva's Oskar had he not nearly unseated his young jockey at the last. He was 2nd at Southwell a month later and I thought that was a very good effort because the winner Linelee King looks a very classy recruit to this sphere. They went no pace in that race and he was just outsprinted at the end. He's been trained with this race in mind and I suspect he might well outrun his odds. Willitgoahead - Has been a massive improver this season and was a big money purchase ahead of Cheltenham where he ran a huge race to finish a 3.5L 3rd to Wonderwall. It would be interesting to know the riding instructions because he was held up at the back and he didn't get involved until late on. It could be they were concerned about his stamina, but he stayed well and I would imagine they will ride him closer to the pace back down in trip. He's a very good jumper and if he runs up to his Cheltenham form then he ought to go very close. The concern will be though that he has been on the go since October, he's a young horse and he would have had a tough race at Cheltenham. With that in mind his price is tight enough for me for all that he is very much a possible winner. Yccs Portocervo - On last seasons wins (2 Hunter Chases at Kempton and Newton Abbot and a handicap off 130 at Market Rasen) he wouldn't be out of this as you can easily see him enjoying things out in front and being in contention still as they near the business end. The problem is though he didn't run very well at Leicester on his seasonal return when he pulled up behind Joker De Mai. Connections blamed the trip being too short, but that didn't look the issue for me. Like I say though if he bounces back he might not be far away. Yippee Ki Yay - Looked pretty useful when going hunter chasing last season as he won a couple and was 2nd at Cheltenham. This season thought he has been campaigned very strangely having been well beaten in a point, before running in 2 handicaps but not all that well. Looks an unlikely winner. Verdict - This looks a wide open renewal and there are probably at least a dozen horses that wouldn't surprise me if they won. I'm going to take a 5 pronged attack on the race 2 of which are small bets at massive odds. All the front 4 in the betting have claims, but the one I like most out of them is Lifetime Ambition. This has been a long term target for the horse and he would have won at Punchestown last year with a stronger jockey, which he gets here in the shape of Rob James. He's had a solid prep in points and we know he handles the track. The winner at Cheltenham had an Irish points prep so it could easily happen here as well. The 2nd bet is going to be Gracchus De Balme. Another horse who has had this as his long term target and Joe has a very good record in this race. I'd possibly have liked to have seen headgear go on given his wayward tendencies at Haydock, but he'd never shown it before to be fair and whilst he does have a small margin to make up on My Drogo I've got a feeling this test might suit him better than that one. Also the price difference is huge and just shouldn't be that big. I'd ignore the Leicester run last time as it was just too bad to be true and he should be spot on for its. Next I have to have Bennys King onside. He has proven yet again this season that he is in the same sort of form that has seen him finish 2nd the last 2 years and if he runs up to the Leicester run here then he's going to have a superb chance of a top 5 finish. Whilst it is mainly the place part of the bet that appeals, he certainly has a chance of winning as well and would be great if he did. The two big price tips are Willewonga and Pyleigh Court. Joe's 2nd string certainly isn't out of it and again I feel this has been the target for him. He should have beaten Eva's Oskar at Bangor and the horse that beat him at Southwell was one of the most impressive performances I've seen this season. I am taking a bit of a flyer with Pyleigh Court because on bare form he does need to find a bit, but there was lots of promise with his Leicester return and then he backed that up with his win last time. His still unexposed and I think there could be more to come. At the very least he can outrun his odds, but if there is to be a real shock it could be him. Prices from 3pm Thursday Lifetime Ambition 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Coral (take up to 7/2) Gracchus De Balme 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred to 5 places. Ladbrokes are 22/1 with 4 places (take up to 12/1) Bennys King 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred. 16s available elsewhere to 4 places and Hills are 18/1 with 5 places (take up to 10/1) Willewonga 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with most bookies. Ladbrokes are 66/1 with 4 places (take up to 33/1) Pyleigh Court 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with most bookies. Ladbrokes are 80/1 with 4 places (take up to 40/1)

It will be the Asian markets moving the prices and they will be based on stats. With alfreton having high xGs I suspect that is why Asia wanted to be with them. A drift never bothers me

He was taken out on Friday.

Rochdale v Aldershot The home side seem to have just gone off the boil again recently and Aldershot owe us won after putting in a poor effort against Dagenham the other week. They have won 4 of their 5 games since then and the other draw was a 3-3 one against Ebbsfleet last week, but Aldershot should have won. Rochdale haven't won in 4 now and an away win looks a big price here. Only Barnet have got more points than them in the last 10 games. Chorely v Spennymoor Another team in very good form are Spennymoor who have won 4 on the bounce, have only lost twice in their last 10 and are 3rd in the last 10 games form table. Chorley have only won 3 times in their last 9 games and 1 of those was against Farsley. Chorley are 5th, but Spennymoor are giving themselves a real good chance of getting into the play-offs. They look over priced to me for this. Gosport v Wimborne The 3rd team are also in top form at the moment and that is Wimborne. They haven't lost in 9 games and are setting themselves up nicely for next season. Apart from a win over Dorchester, Gosport have not won in their last 6. They lost 4-0 against Bracknell last week and they haven't been in great form themselves. I would make Wimborne favs for this game. Prices from Friday 6pm Aldershot 1pt @ 100/30 with Paddy Power and Betfair (365 are 7/2 and take up to 9/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (Hills are 2/1 and take up to 6/4) Wimborne 1pt @ 9/5 with Betfred (take up to 11/8)

There was a doubt that we would have a 2025 Aussie Jumps season as it was under threat of being axed, but thankfully it wasn't and we have another season to look forward to. The season starts with 3 races at Warrnambool on Friday with the first of them due off at 1am UK time. Race 1 First maiden hurdle of the season and as the betting suggests it does look a match between Balinor and Loft. Balinor made his hurdles debut on the final day of the season at Ballarat, but was a well beaten 5th that day. He should be capable of better than that though and he comes here on the back of some good form on the flat including winning at Moonee Valley 22 days ago over 3000m. The 3rd won the other day so the form looks solid. He had a trial of hurdles last week and his jumping looked solid. Loft used to be trained in Germany, but after running at Chester in August 2022 he didn't run in another race for 539 days and his Aussie career on the flat has not gone well. All his runs were in Group or Listed races though so he was running in strong contests. He has had 3 hurdle trials leading into this and I have been very impressed. His last one last week he jumped really slickly and he beat Affluential who was a leading hurdler last season. He just looked to have a touch of class about him and it looks like jumps racing is going to give him a new lease of life. I think he can land the first jumps race of the new season. Loft 1pt @ 5/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral Race 2 This also looks like being a match between Prismatic and Treasured Crown although you can never completely rule out El Diez given he always pops up every now and again. Prismatic ran in 3 hurdle races last season and he easily claimed his maiden win at Hamilton at the end of May. He then went to Warrnambool and he couldn't quite pick up the front running Fabalot. Back here a couple of weeks later though he managed to reverse the form as his jockey made sure he sat much closer to Fabalot and he was able to beat him comfortably. His had a couple of flat starts and he trialed over fences last week. He does have to give a lot of weight away to Treasured Crown who won his maiden at Sale last year. He was then 2nd to Alakahan in a winner of 1 over course and distance before finishing a fairly well beaten 4th at Sandown in a BM120 over 3400m. He's had a couple of hurdle trials and won the last of them last week. He's had 1 flat start. He is now trained by local trainer Symon Wilde. I know he's got the weight to carry, but for me Prismatic is the one to beat on his way to bigger targets later in the season. Prismatic 2pts @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes and Coral Race 3 This looks quite a trappy first chase of the season. Duke Of Bedford did win a trial here last week, but he has struggled at this track in races before. He had a strange season as he started really strongly then struggled a little before winning on the final day of the season at Ballarat. The favourite is Freddy The Eagle is making his chasing debut. He had some solid enough hurdle form last season and could be up to winning this. It's hard to gleam too much from his steeple trials and at the price I am going to look elsewhere. The Mighty Spar was 2nd to Wil John on his chase debut last season and he then won at Sale and Casterton over the hedge fences. He's had a couple of solid flat runs to lead into this. Instigator won this race last season and then pushed Stern Idol close in the Brierly over this course and distance. He then went off the boil after that. He's had 1 flat start and a couple of trials and he isn't out of this. I was with Tom Foolery on his first 2 starts at Ballarat and Pakenham last season where he was 2nd both times. I then wasn't with him here at the May Carnival and he went and won. The next day he was 3rd in the Grand Annual which was a huge effort. He didn't take to the hedge fences at Casterton, but he was 2nd here in the Thackeray before solid enough efforts behind Stern Idol at Pakenham and in the Crisp at Sandown. He's only had 1 trial leading into this last week. I'm going to split my stake here as I am happy enough to take on Freddy The Eagle and Duke Of Bedford. I'm slightly concerned that Tom Foolery has only had one trial, but he does love it here and looks a big price. I also like The Mighty Spar as well as he looked a horse who could go onto bigger things last season. Tom Foolery 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral The Mighty Spar 0.5pts @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral

No idea to be honest, but was a bit surprised to see him in the entries.

I did consider Leamington as well, but they have not been so good away from home this season. Also Alfreton have improved despite not having picked up a win. Their xGs have been very high recently apart from against Scunthorpe and Brackley. I can still see there being a bit of value in the away win, but just not enough for me to really want to get involved.

Gateshead v Tamworth Gateshead were poor on Tuesday night and Braintree fully deserved the win. Braintree pressed Gateshead hard and forced them into mistakes so their passing style of football didn't work. I can see Tamworth doing the same here and as we know they always make things difficult for their opponents. That loss on Tuesday made it 4 defeats on the bounce and they haven't won in 6 now. Tamworth meanwhile are in cracking form and I think they look a cracking bet at a big price. Hartlepool v Boston Boston looked doomed to going straight back to the National League North a few weeks ago, but they have now gone 6 games unbeaten, winning their last 3 and all of a sudden they have given themselves a right chance of staying up. They beat an in form Braintree last weekend and then beat another in form side in Rochdale on Tuesday. They went 3-0 up and ended up winning 3-2, but that was Rochdale's first loss in 5 games and they had been looking very good. Hartlepool on the other hand have not looked good recently. They haven't won in 8 games and it was a pretty dull 1-1 draw with Solihull last Saturday. Hartlepool have nothing to play for and with the form Boston are in at the moment they have to be a bet. Oldham v Halifax Halifax should have won on Tuesday night with Dagenham creating very little, but I think Halifax have a chance of getting back to winning ways here. Oldham did not convince at all against Rochdale last week and they still aren't playing very well. I certainly think that Halfiax look a big price here as there isn't much between these two sides for me. Hemel Hempstead v Aveley Aveley's relegation isn't far from being confirmed and they have lost 16 of their 19 away games. They have only picked up 1 point in their last 8 games as well. Hemel should have won easier than they did on Tuesday night against Welling, but they won for us again and in my view they should be shorter odds to win this given the form they are in at the moment. Prices from Thursday morning Tamworth 2pts @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (365 are huge at 14/5, Hills are 11/4 and take up to 2/1) Boston 1pt @ 11/4 Skybet and Betfred (365 are huge at 16/5, Hills are 29/10 and take up to 21/10) Halifax 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (11/4 with William Hill and take up to 2/1) Hemel Hempstead 4pts @ 4/5 with Skybet and Betfred (Hills are 10/11 (take up to 4/7)

Gateshead v Braintree Gateshead were missing 10 players on Saturday and they duly lost to Maidenhead who had been out of form. I know Braintree lost to Boston on Saturday, but Boston are making a real fist out of trying to stay up and Braintree had been doing well prior to that. I think they have a chance of winning this at a big price. Halifax v Dagenham & Redbridge Still annoys me that Aldershot were so poor up front a couple of weeks ago when we were on them against Dagenham as they have won both their games since whereas Dagenham have lost both. They did take the lead against Tamworth on Saturday, but after going down to 10 men they struggled and barely created a chance. Halifax were our only winners on Saturday when they beat Sutton 3-0 and they are now 6 games unbeaten. They are giving themselves a great chance of being in the play-offs again and with Dagenham only having got 4 points in their last 10 games it should be a home win. I was surprised Halifax weren't even shorter in the betting as really they should be heading towards the 1/2 mark. Alfreton v Darlington Granted Darlington were well beaten at Peterborough Sports on Saturday, but Alfreton failed to win again themselves as they drew against Oxford City. Given how poor Alfreton have been you have to back Darlington at the price as they are the better team despite the fact they aren't always the most consistent. Kidderminster v Scunthorpe Ante-post wise we really need Kidderminster to win this and a draw wouldn't be bad either, but I have to look at this game without considering that and Scunthorpe are a big price. Kidderminster always seem to be well back and that has been the case again here. That means of course that the Scunthorpe price has drifted out and that makes them a value bet. They have won 7 out of their last 10 games and drawn the other 3. Kiddie to be fair have come out of their slump in form and have given themselves a chance of getting back in contention for the title. They are unbeaten in 5 and have won 4 of them, but Kidderminster for me should be no more than slight favs because of home advantage so at least if Scunthorpe do win we can have a winning matchday bet. Welling v Hemel Hempstead I chanced Hemel on Saturday because in the form they were in I thought they had a chance of getting a result at Worthing, but Worthing blew them away and won easily. That result makes me think Worthing wont be caught at the top now, but I also think we can ignore it as regards to the form Hemel are in and they have a great chance of bouncing straight back here. Welling's manager resigned yesterday which might have some to late as it looks a really hard task to try and keep them in the division. They have only picked up 3 points from draws in their last 9 games. Obviously a manager change always adds an element of doubt and as we know Hemel improved massively for one, but they had a great squad anyway, whereas Welling don't. Alvechurch v Kettering It looked like Kettering were going to be very hard to beat for the title, but they have dropped some silly points. In the last 15 games form table they are only 11th. There have been players leaving and the most bizarre one came last week when their best player left to join Matlock who are currently in the relegation zone in the Northern Prem. Whilst Matlock are clearly splashing the cash, all Kettering fans thought he would be going upwards not downwards! His leaving message on Twitter suggested that all is not well at Kettering right now and there is suggestion that the manager has lost the dressing room. They only drew against Lowestoft on Saturday which wasn't a great result and they only had 4 subs. The reverse game actually took place a couple of weeks ago and Kettering did win 2-1, but Alvechurch were in front for half the game and ironically it was the player who has gone to Matlock who scored the winner. In their last 8 games Alvechurch have only lost to Bedford, Kettering and Stamford who are all in the top 5 and only by 1 goal. With the goings on at Kettering right now I think Alvechurch have the opportunity to win this. Prices from 2pm Monday Braintree 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (365 are huge at 9/2 and some smaller bookies are also bigger. Take up to 3/1) Halifax 4pts @ 17/20 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up 4/6) Darlington 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (quite a few smaller bookies are bigger as they are on Betfair Exchange. Take up to 7/4) Scunthorpe 1pt @ 12/5 with Betfred, Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 5/2 and take up to 2/1) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 9/5 with most bookies (2/1 with Hills and take up to 6/4) Alvechurch 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred (Bigger with smaller bookies and take up to 7/4)

Apologies I only finished these off this morning in a bit of a rush Oldham v Rochdale Sutton v Halifax Worthing v Hemel Canvey v Lewes Folkestone v Whitehawk Redditch v Bedford Rochdale 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Hills and Betfair (5/2 on the exchange and take up to 15/8) Halifax 1pt @ 2/1 with most bookies (365 are 21/10 and take up to 13/8) Hemel 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 3/1) Lewes 1pt @ 29/20 with Bet365 (6/4 with Betfred and take up to 5/4) Whitehawk 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 11/5) Bedford 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral (Betfred are 15/8 and take up to 6/4)