Darran

Altrincham v Southend The home side have only lost once at home so far this season although they have drawn half of their 8 home games and Southend have drawn half of their 8 away games so the draw is a slight concern, but I do think Altrincham offer value given Southend are favs for this. I took them on last week in a bizarre game of football and got lucky that it was Yeovil who got the goal, but the fact is Southend have been struggling in front of goal. In their last 10 league games they have scored 11 goals, but you have to bare in mind that 4 of those came in one game against Solihull. Altrincham have had little issue scoring goals and have netted in 7 of their last games and the only time they didn't was in their only lost in that spell against Braintree. Also the only time they haven't scored at home was the one loss against Eastleigh. A bit like last week I think Southend are being over-rated by the bookies and Altrincham rate a decent value bet for me. Woking v Boston Yes I am opposing Woking again! Boston were decent last week against Dagenham and probably should have won so whilst it has been a long time since they have won the fact they have drawn their last two games gives me hope they could get that vital win at a Woking side who have not won for 9 games themselves. They have only lost 3 of their 8 games at home, but they have had a bit of good fortune along the way. Boston have performed better on the road and their 3 defeats were at Southend (at the start of the season when they were really struggling), Gateshead and Barnet. They have played 7 away games and got 8 points which is only one fewer than Barnet and they have played 1 more game. I just don't think there is quite as big a difference between the two sides as the betting suggests and will thus Boston offer some value. Blyth Spartans v Matlock Matlock did us a good turn last week coming from behind with 10 men to win 3-2 and I think they can win again here. I will say that Blyth weren't that bad last week in their 2nd game since being taken over so there are signs of improvement, but Matlock are one of the form sides in the division and I think at this stage they certainly should be too strong for their hosts. Marlow v Wimborne I'm not surprised the odds against on the away side has been taken as I'm not sure any side should be odds against to beat Marlow. The slight concern is Wimborne have only won once away from home, but we are due a result opposing Marlow given the other two times they managed to get a 2-2 draw. They are a dreadful side and hopefully Wimborne can prove too strong. Bognor Regis v Carshalton The home side did beat Bowers last week which was annoying for us, but they were then well beaten by Lewes on Tuesday night and Carshalton look a fair price to beat them here. They beat Billericay 4-3 last Saturday which is clearly a very good result and their only 2 defeats in their last 8 leagues games have come against the in form Canvey Island and the very good Wingate & Finchley. For me they should be clear favs for this. Whitehawk v Wingate & Finchley Speaking of Wingate I am backing them as well to continue their superb run of form. They have won 6 of their last 7 league games and the only defeat was at Dulwich when the home side scored a 97th minute winner. Whitehawk are pretty poor this season and have picked up just 2 points in their last 7 games. Odds against looks a big price for me about an away win. Prices from Friday 9am Altrincham 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Boston 1pt @ 11/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5) Matlock 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred (take up to Evs) Wimborne 1pt @ Evs with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 8/11) Carshalton 1pt @ 6/4 with Betfred (take up to 5/4) Wingate & Finchley 2pts @ 13/10 with Betfred (take up to 5/6)

Was due a day like that when things went my way.

Southend v Yeovil Yeovil have crept up into the play-off places and I'm not entirely surprised as I was impressed with them when they went to Gateshead earlier in the season as they showed they had plenty of ability that day. They have only lost twice in their last 10 league games and they were 1-0 defeats against Solihull and Oldham. This isn't going to be an easy game as Southend have certainly looked better in recent games. They beat Rochdale and then restricted Aldershot to just 1 shot, but couldn't score themselves before beating Tamworth in their last league game 2-0. They were totally dominant that day and did well against Charlton last week in the FA Cup. I just think though that Yeovil are too big a price not to have something on as they are capable of winning this. Scunthorpe v Buxton At one stage I thought I had got Scunthorpe wrong pre-season as they looked very good in the early weeks of the season and better than they did last season, but the wins have dried up in recent weeks and they have only beaten Rushall and Farsley in their last 9 league games. They have only lost 3 of them, but that includes a 3-2 reverse at Spennymoor on Tuesday night. Now apart from a drab 0-0 draw at Chester they have been creating plenty of good chances with some strong xG numbers and they are unbeaten at home, but Buxton are just too big a price not to back. Buxton had a dreadful run of form where they only won twice in 12 games, but they are unbeaten in their last 5 leagues games and have won 4 of them. Oddly their xG figures haven't been so impressive and they haven't always had many shots, but what that means is they are taking advantage of what chances do come there way. They did win 7-1 against Needham as well although that game isn't on WyScout. They have it in them to be the first team to beat Scunthorpe at home this season. Oxford City v Scarborough It was Scarborough who Buxton beat on Tuesday night and they are not in great form in the league. Just 2 wins in their last 10 (one of which was actually against Scunthorpe) and with Oxford improving as I highlighted on Tuesday I think they look a solid bet to win here. The red card did help them on Tuesday night, although Hereford had created very little before that, but what it did do was allow City plenty of the ball. With them finally taking advantage of that possession it stands them in good stead to win their 2nd home league game of the season against a side who are out of form. Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond To be fair to Hemel they have had a fairly tough run of fixtures, but my god does it feel like a long time ago since they were top and I was feeling pretty good about tipping them up at 66/1 for the league. They will surely win again at some stage, but Hampton have had a couple of good results in their last couple of games including a good 3-1 win over Eastbourne where they took full advantage of a poor 2nd half by the current league leaders. They are worth backing to beat a struggling Hemel side. Welling v Truro This really ought to be an away win. Welling have lost 7 of their last 9 league games and the two wins in that spell were 1-0 victories over St Albans and Enfield. They were shocking in defence and in goal in the two 4-0 and 4-1 losses to Chippenham and Eastbourne in their last 2 league games. Truro are unbeaten in their last 7 league games and are looking good and they should be able to take advantage of a Welling side who just look really low in confidence especially at the back. Matlock v Bamber Bridge Matlock have lost their last 2, but they more than held their own against Macclesfield and Stockton only losing by a single goal against 2 of the best sides in the division. They now host a Bamber Bridge side who have lost 3 of their last 4 games and Matlock's current squad is much better than their league position suggests so they can win this. Bowers & Pitsea v Bognor Regis Bognor have lost 5 games on the bounce and whilst the first 2 were against the current top 2 sides the other 3 certainly weren't. They have only picked up 1 point away from home so far this season and they go to a Bowers side who aren't in bad form at all having won 4 of their last 6 league games. They look a good price to beat the side currently bottom of the table. Cray Valley v Horsham Whilst Hemel aren't looking so good for our 66/1 ante-post play, Cray Valley are looking much better for the 66/1 ante-post bet. They are currently in 3rd and have lost just 2 of their last 10 league games and have won 4 of their 6 home league games. Now Horsham are a good side themselves and having only played 10 league games they are in a little bit of a false position in the table, but they have only won once on their travels in the league so far and I'm surprised they are favourites for this. Cray look good value to me. Yeovil 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and BetVictor (10/3 with 365 and take up to 5/2) Buxton 1pt @ 9/2 with BetVictor and Betfred (5/1 with Hills and take up to 3/1) Oxford City 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (19/10 with Hills and take up to 6/4) Truro 3pts @ 19/20 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11) Matlock 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to Evs) Bowers & Pitsea 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up 11/8) Cray Valley 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

I am really keen on the chances of Gaboriot in the Grand Sefton. Sone might remember I tipped him up for the Aintree Foxhunters only for him to unseat at the Canal Turn. I think he would have gone close, but that does mean he is well handicapped. The handicapper only put him up a pound for the Cheltenham win and then kept him the same for the Cartmel win. I think he has around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper based on his hunter chase efforts and I think he is better on quicker ground than he faced last season. I remember one of the things that worried me at Catterick when he won was the soft ground so the ground should be ideal for him. Annoyingly Pricewise have put him up so the price has come in a little, but I think he's a great e/w bet as if he gets round safely I think he will be in the first 4 at least (pretty much all bookies are going 4 places). I'd love Latenightpass to run well again and he clearly likes it round here given his Foxhunter runs and his superb Grand National effort where he simply didn't stay. The thing is though he has to give 20lbs to Gaboriot and I that is a huge amount as I don't think there is much difference in their ability. No doubt he will run well though. We also have Percussion who went hunter chasing last season and was 14L behind Gaboriot at Catterick. He did finish a very good 2nd at Uttoxeter last time though and has been placed in the last two running's of this race so clearly he enjoys it. That Uttoxeter effort does suggest that maybe he wasn't at his best when hunter chasing, but he's still carrying 2lbs more than Gaboriot. King Turgeon (been very well backed all week) and Sure Touch (trainer very confident) would head the others, but like I say above Gaboriot looks well handicapped and he has a really strong chance. Gaboriot @ 15/2 with majority of bookies

An incredible day's racing at Flemington in the hours of the morning with 3 Group 1's and plenty to look forward to R3 - 2.50am This is the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the former Jessica Harrington trained Kinesiology makes his Oz debut for Chris Waller. He has won once and finished 2nd in 5 of his other 7 starts. He did pass the post in front though in the Vinnie Roe at Leopardstown in August only for him to lose the race in the stewards room. His jockey was certain he was on the best horse and he then finished 2nd again in a G3 on Irish Champion Stakes day. He is already near the head of the betting for next year's Melbourne Cup and he could prove too good here, but I am going to take him on. Must admit I never thought I would be backing for Derby winner Serpentine, but he does look like he has very solid claims here. He's been in good from in 3 of his last 4 starts and he was very good in the Moonee Valley Cup when 2nd to Okita Soushi who franked the form with a good 3rd in the Melbourne Cup. What really interests me is James McDonald takes the ride and that could just be the key to getting him to win again. I will also cover the 2nd and 3rd from the Bendigo Cup given that form looks much stronger than I originally thought! Berkeley Square has had a very good prep and was 2nd in the G3 Coongy at Caulfield prior to the 2nd at Bendigo. He's not been over this far, but he runs as if going up in trip will suit him and he likes Flemington. Star Vega was 3rd just behind Berkeley Square at both Caulfield and Bendigo and again looks like the step up in trip will suit him nicely. Serpentine @ 14/5 with Bet365 Berkeley Square @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Star Vega @ 9/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair R6 - 4.50am This is the Champions Sprint and it sees the Everest 1st, 2nd and 5th meet each other again. Bella Nipotina looks to be in best ever form at the age of 7 as she landed the Everest and then won over 1300 last Saturday at Rosehill to take her prize money over $20m! She beat Sunshine In Paris last week and that horse was 5th at Randwick behind her. I can't see her reversing the form although I am going to take Bella Nipotina on. She has only placed 4 times in 10 starts at Flemington and that's a small worry although like I say she is running better than she ever has. I more want to take her on because I think Giga Kick can reverse the form. He was only 3rd up going into the Everest and he had been off for a year prior to his 1st up run so there should be more to come. He had to close from the back and was only beaten a head at the end. Not having an extra race might prove crucial as well. I will also save on Overpass. He has won Western Australia's version of the Everest, the Quokka, the last two years and he hadn't run since this years running in April until he took the G3 Sydney Stakes on the same day as the Everest. What is interesting is that he clocked a very slightly faster time than Bella Nipotina so he likely would have been involved in the finish in the Everest. He does have a very good 1st up record so possibly there might not be improvement, but his 2nd up record is solid enough and he has a winning chance. Giga Kick @ 4/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred Overpass @ 9/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred R7 - 5.30am I don't think the Champions Mile is the easiest race to weigh up. Pride Of Jenni won this race last year and as always will be the pace angle, but she raced very flat in the Cox Plate just 7 days after the King Charles III 2nd. The owner is blaming the jockey as he has been replaced by Ben Melham and her former rider is on Another Wil who isn't without a chance. If she is back to her best then she can win this, but I can't be backing a horse like her who gives her all from the front after such a flat run last time. Indeed it was suggested she would go for a spell after that, but her owner wants her to run again. I can see the case for Broadsiding who ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the Cox Plate, but as a 3yo I just wonder if that run might have taken the edge of ahead of this. The selection is going to be Mr Brightside who was one place behind Broadsiding at MV. I don't think he is at his best over 2000m and for me this is his best trip. He's been running his usual solid races this prep and things might just set up perfectly to win another G1. Mr Brightside @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred R8 - 6.10am Via Sistina is back in action just 2 weeks after putting in the best performance we have seen anywhere in the world over 2000m this year. It was a devastating performance and whilst you do have the small concern that she was trained to peak for the Cox Plate and she might not back it up, it is hard to take her on because she should win. I think it is also important that she backs it up to prove it wasn't a one off. It is great to see last years Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Without A Fight back on a racecourse after a tendon injury meant he hasn't run since winning the latter. Docklands also runs here after a solid 5th in the Cox Plate. I am really surprised they didn't go back to 1600m with him after that because he would have had a good chance in the mile. With Via Sistina being so short this is a race more to watch than have a bet in.

Fair play and yes he was unlucky not to be closer, but that form shouldn't have been good enough to win a Melbourne Cup. That's what makes the race so great though because you can get results like this and he has beaten WFA G1 horses which is great to see.

Buckaroo travelled the furthest distance of any horse in the race and went 15m further than the winner. Got given a shocking ride and then he reckons the horse doesn't stay. I really hope Waller doesn't listen to him as I think he can win next year's race if he arrives in the same form as this year.

Not sure I think it might have just been a case she didn't quite see out the 2m. She had seemingly the perfect trip, but the swoopers had the edge

Impossible to have fancied that at all, but that's racing for you sometimes it just baffles you!

I have an added reason to be excited about Melbourne Cup day as one of the horses I have a share in, Imamanzor, is running in R2 on the card. I would love to have been at Flemington as it would have been a hell of an experience to have been at Melbourne Cup day as an owner. Anyway it will be my front room in the dark at 12.20am to cheer him on! Here are my thoughts on the runner. Vianarra - Not won in 12 starts although wasn't hopeless in the Caulfield Guineas when a fairly close 7th at huge odds. Didn't really back that up in the G2 Vase at MV over 2040m. Drop back in trip will suit but would be a surprising winner. Opening Address - Was impressive in his Maiden win at Wodonga although possibly flattered by being in the better ground. Was a solid 3rd in a BM64 on his first handicap start at Sale, but improved from that to run a stormer in the G2 Vase to finish 2nd in a 3 way go to the line. Stayed on well that day so possible the drop in trip might be against and the tempo was slow which helped given he settled in 2nd place and showed a decent kick. Certainly has a chance in this though coming back in grade. Statuario - Won back to back races at Cranbourne over 1400m and then a 0-64 over 1600m. Probably would have finished 3rd at Caulfield last time if he hadn't been tightened up, but certainly benefitted from being close to a slow pace as the front 4 were able to steel a march on the rest of the field. May not want the step up in trip. Hammett - Been running in NSW so far and was well beaten on debut, before an improving 6th at Newcastle and then a good win over 1600m at Warwick Farm last time. Certainly looks like another step up in trip will suit and he had a nice jump out at Flemington last week. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he was able to take the step-up to Listed class. Lavalier - Started off in NSW and won on 2nd start at Kambla Grange in July. Then came to Victoria to finish 3rd in a open 3yo handicap at MV and then ran a fair 5th over c&d. Was 5th again over c&d up to Listed level and was behind Red Aces who won the G2 Vase at MV so was in front of some of these. Was keen in blinkers last time in the Geelong Classic over 2200m and didn't really see it out because of that to finish 5th again. Blinkers go off and has place claims. Kenmare Bay - Another who has been in NSW so far. 5th and 3rd in first 2 runs and then up to 1600m won at Kembla Grange. Was then odds on to win a Class 1 (for winners of just one race) and was too keen out in front and helped set things up for a track record. Was ridden the complete opposite at Newcastle last time in a BM64 as he settled in last and flew home off a slow place to only go down 0.45L. Is up in grade here, but trip looks set to suit and probably better than he's been able to show the last twice. Lario - Won 1st up this prep at Geelong 2 months ago and then dropped away to finish 11th over c&d. Dropped down to 1400m in heavy ground at Caulfield and never got involved. Unlikely to be good enough. Plymouth - Had no chance from at Caulfield last time in the race Statuario was 4th as he settled in last place and as mentioned above they went no pace and trying to make up ground at Caulfield off a slow pace is basically impossible. He did well to get as close as he did to finish 5th. That came on the back of a good maiden win at Bendigo. Will need a good tempo, but the step up in trip and the longer home straight are certainly going to help. Hot Majesty - Needed 4 starts to get a win although probably not helped by the slow tempos. Landed a Kyneton maiden over 1875m when long odds on 2 weeks ago. Did have to dig deep to win though and I'm not sure he'd be up to this class just yet. Imamanzor - We do think a lot of him and that he will be up to winning at city level at some point. He won his maiden very easily at Warrnambool a month ago and than ran in the same Caulfield race as Statuario and Plymouth when finishing 9th. Now in theory he shouldn't reverse the form, but he got himself way too buzzed up before the race and was then very keen in the race so it wasn't a huge surprise he didn't finish his race off so I think he can get closer to the other two at least here. He dropped back in grade on Thursday and really should have won as he was slow away and couldn't get a run until too late and the winner who was on speed had already slipped the field. This is clearly a better race, but he goes up to 1800m and his jockey at Caulfield said he will have learnt a lot from that experience which he seemed to as he was much better behaved last week. Obviously Melbourne Cup day is going to be a whole new experience so hopefully he will be calm again. I'm not going to say he can win, but I do think his price is too big and he could sneak a price. Purler Patch - Didn't show too much in first 2 starts and then won at Bendigo on his 3rd. Led the field in the Vase at MV but ended up only in 8th. Not got the ideal draw to lead, but I imagine he will be front rank. Drop down in trip will probably help, but not sure he'd be good enough. Cecchetti - Yet to win in 3 starts although was 4th in a Listed Race at Morphettville in Adelaide 2 weeks ago. I'd imagine this race will be stronger and he might need further. Verdict - Whilst I will be having a small e/w play on Imamanzor and obviously want him to win, I am going to have two win bets against the field. I like the way Hammett is progressing and he looks like he could be up to this level. I also think Plymouth is better than he was able to show last time and could also take the step up to this level. I get why Opening Address is favourite, but he had the ideal set up at MV and he might not get that here. Hammett @ 6/1 with Bet365 Plymouth @ 18/5 with Bet365 Imamanzor e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred

The Melbourne Cup is always one of my favourite races of the year and I've got a pretty good punting record in the race as well. I did miss out last year, but this year I have already put up the winner of the Caulfield Cup at 18/1 and the winner of the Cox Plate at 9/2 so we are well in profit for the Spring. Lots of UK and Irish interest not just with the horses currently trained here but there are plenty who used to be trained here. Here are my thoughts on the race Vauban - Was a big disappointment in the race last year only finishing 14th. Willie Mullins thinks that he was undercooked having not run since the start of August as they were trying to protect his handicap mark. In an effort to get him up to speed they gave him a strong gallop just before the race and Mullins thinks that is where he left his race. Whatever happened he didn't find anything when asked for an effort. This year he was 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup, 4th in the Gold Cup when he didn't stay, 3rd in the Curragh Cup, 1st in the Lonsdale Cup and then 2nd in the Irish St Leger. That means he has had 2 races more recently than he had last year. Stall 11 looks ideal and Buick should be able to get a nice position. Clearly has a leading chance. Buckaroo - This horse has massively improved this prep and is a much better horse than when trained by Joseph O'Brien. He come over here a year ago and was 7th in the King Charles III and 5th in the Champions Stakes before transferring to Chris Waller. There was a bit of promise in his runs in the Autumn which included a 3rd in the Ranvet Stakes. This prep though he has been top class. He won the Chelmsford Stakes over 1600m, then landed the Underwood Stakes over 1700m before only going down a head in the Turnbull to Via Sistina. That is clearly top class form given what she did in the Cox Plate. He then ran a stormer in the Caulfield Cup as he had got shuffled back and was 14th for most of the way, 13th at the 800m market and 8th with 400m to go. The winner was away and gone by this point, but he put a clear margin between himself and the rest of the field. The 2400m trip that day is the furthest he has gone in a race, but he clearly was doing some great work at the finish and if his trainer thinks he can run 3200m then I am not doubting him. I also wonder if part of the reason for not running Via Sistina was because he knows this horse has a superb chance. Stall 21 could have been a bit better, but that means he has drifted in the betting and for me he is the best horse in the race. Circle Of Fire - Another former UK trained runner who I put up to win the G2 Chairmans and G1 Sydney Cup in April. The Sydney Cup doesn't always work out that well regarding this race, but I initially thought that he could possibly be one to buck that trend (Makybe Diva the last to win both 20 years ago). The fact we know he stays is important, but I wanted to see more from him in the Caulfield Cup which I thought was just an average run. He settled in 10th and finished 10th which pretty much sums the run up. The other thing to add to the mix is he's drawn in 24 so all in all I can't have him as he just doesn't look in near the level he showed in the Autumn. Warp Speed - He was another horse that I was looking to perform well at Caulfield with a view for this race which looks on paper a much more suitable test. I thought there was no promise at all in the run though as he finished in 13th. The only thing to note is the track was a Soft 6 and that wouldn't have been ideal so he will get his ground here. We know he stays so that helps, but overall he wouldn't be for me. Kovalica - Been a long time since he last got his head in front and that came in the Queensland Derby in May 23. He's run the odd good race since, but I think this prep he looks to have improved. First up he was 3rd in a G2 over 1400m, then he was 4th in the G1 Epsom, before being the best of the swoopers in the G2 Hill Stakes. It was slightly surprising to see him go to the Cox Plate next, but whilst he clearly was never going to win I thought it was a promising effort in the circumstances. He's never been over this far, but he looks like he will stay and is capable of running a bold race for Chris Waller. Sharp 'N' Smart - Come over from New Zeland and 4 starts back was running over 1200m! Did win the NZ Derby though, 2nd in the Victoria Derby and was 4th in the Australian Derby. Didn't show a great deal when 13th in the Turnbull and then grinded into 3rd place in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. I suspect he will stay 3200m, but hard to think he has the class to win this. Just Fine - Ex Stoute horse who won the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick last September. His next win came a month ago in the G3 Bart Cummings over 2520m which is the furthest trip he has won over. Got a very good ride from the front that day to make all and things didn't go anywhere near as well in the MV Cup last time where he finished last. Bit odd why he ran in that as he was already in the race and going to be hard to make all here. Land Legend - Landed the St Leger over 2600m a year ago so you would think this trip should be fine. This prep he landed the Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick just beating Zardozi, but he finished in front of that one in the Caulfield Cup last time when finishing 3rd. That was a solid effort, but unless Buckaroo doesn't stay I can't see him reversing that form, but he is one with some sort of chance of hitting the frame. Absurde - Looked the winner last year for a fair way of the home straight before fading into 7th. It was still a very good run though and after going back hurdling and landing the County Hurdle at Cheltenham it has been all about getting him ready for a repeat bid. He was well beaten in the Irish St Leger, but there was plenty to like in his Chester Stakes win at the end of August. I love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy who has a great record in this race and I think he has a superb chance. He also gets to carry 0.5kg less than last year. Athabascan - Ex-French horse who finished a good 2nd in the Sydney Cup in April. Had various things against him in his first 3 starts this prep, but then landed the G3 St Leger at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. That was over 2600m and it did suggest that he could be ready to peak here. May not be quite good enough, but he is coming into this race in better form than the Sydney Cup winner. Will no doubt look to get a decent pitch from stall 2 and wouldn't be a total no hoper. Knight's Choice - 16th in the Turnbull, 14th in the Caulfield Cup and then 5th behind Sea King in the Bendigo Cup where it was a fair run, but all those runs sum up his remote chance for me. Okita Soushi - Plugged on into 11th last in the race last year having been at the back for most of the race when trained by Joseph O'Brien. Wasn't seen again until the end of August and the first 2 runs of the prep were nothing special. He then found his form to finish 2nd in the G2 Herbert Power at Caulfield over 2400m and then he landed the MV Cup in decent enough style beating former Derby winner Serpentine into 2nd. Could be peaking at the right time, but my main thought is the MV Cup isn't the right form race. Onesmoothoperator - Won the Northumberland Plate in June and was a solid enough 7th in the Ebor 2 months later. Most of his runs have been on the AW and his first ever turf victory was in the Geelong Cup. It was some performance as well as he beat Interpretation with ease. There are two ways of looking at that form. Interpretation was 6th in this last year so to beat him so easily was a good effort, or you look at Interpretations form since that 6th and think it didn't take much to beat a pretty weak field. It's probably somewhere between the 2, but I just find it hard to back a horse for the Melbourne Cup who is nearly 8 and who had a fair bit to find prior to Geelong. Obviously we know he stays and I think it would be going to far to say he can't win, but I think his price is unders now so I can't be backing him. Zardozi - James Cummings is the grandson of Bart who is the winning most trainer of this race and he was never afraid to run one on the Saturday of the Carnival and James has done just that with this horse. She was one of my picks for the Caulfield Cup after finishing 2nd to Land Legend in the Metropolitain and she ran a solid race at Caulfield to finish 4th. She won the Oaks a year ago over 2500m and is yet to run beyond that trip so stamina is a slight concern, but what really caught my eye was her run on Saturday in the G1 Empire Rose over 1600m. She was in the back pair for most of the way and was still 11th at the 400m marker, but then she just sliced her way through the field without seemingly to even be trying that hard and she ended up finishing 5th beaten 2.5L. That looked an ideal pipe opener for Tuesday and if she stays she could play a big part off a low weight. Sea King - If you are backing him then you will be hoping Hollie gives him a better ride than she did Bradsell at Del Mar on Saturday! He was one place in front of Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor when trained by Sir Mark Prescott. He bolted up in the Benidgo Cup last week, but that isn't usually the form need to win this. I just struggle to see a horse who was beaten in the Bell-Ringer at Ripon in July can then go and win the Melbourne Cup. Will need a fair bit of luck from stall 1 as well . Valiant King - Was 6th in the Caulfield Cup when trained by Joseph O'Brien last year and was 9th in the race this year now trained by Chris Waler. It was an OK run, but his only win came in a Navan maiden and stall 22 makes his life even harder. Fancy Man - Won at Eagle Farm over 2400m last October, but then bombed out in the MV Cup on his next start. Then wasn't seen until September when 5th and then was 3rd in the Herbert Power. Caulfield Cup run was OK in 6th, but he hasn't shown much in the 2 times he's been further than 2400m and doesn't look good enough. Interpretation - Ran a huge race in this last year as a 40/1 shot when finishing 6th and was blocked in the run as well. Has been steadily improving this prep and was 2nd to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup. Not sure he's going to improve on that 6th though. Manzoice - Won the 2022 Victoria Derby, but has only been placed 3 times in 15 starts since. Was 14th in the Sydney Cup, 10th in the Bart Cummings and 7th in the MV Cup and looks to have a very tough task on his hands. Saint George - Ex Andrew Balding trained horse who should stay given he won over 2800m at Doncaster and then finished 2nd in the Queens Vase. That was in 2023 and he didn't run from Newmarket's July meeting that year until the final day of August this year. The first two efforts were solid enough, but he was then disappointing in the Bart Cummings when only 9th. He was then 5th in the MV Cup last time where again he rain OK. I'd imagine he was purchased with this race in mind, but I'm just nor sure he's going quite well enough at the moment and it could be one to keep an eye on for next year's race. The Map - Won the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m here in May which was a win and your in race for this. Given the fact she was already certain of a spot you would imagine she has been trained to peak for it even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more from her this prep. She was 5th in the Herbert Power and 6th in the Geelong Cup. Might be capable of running a decent race and is 2 from 3 at Flemington. Trust In You - The last one in and connections will be pleased the vets ruled some of the other runners out! The New Zealand raider was 6th in the Auckland Cup and is a G3 winner over 2400m. Last 2 runs have been solid enough being 4th behind Land Legend in the Metropolitan and 4th behind Athabascan in the St Leger. Struggle to see him being good enough. Verdict - Vauban, Buckaroo, Kovalica, Absurde and Zardozi are the ones that interest me the most as being possible winners. There are obviously a few form lines through the MV Cup and the Geelong Cup, but I'm not sure they are the right pieces of form and if they happen to be then I've got it wrong. I think Buckaroo is the best horse in the race as his form is rock solid coming into this. Obviously the unknown is if he will stay or not, but I am happy to take a chance that it will and that his turn of foot is going to better than anything else in the race. If he doesn't quite see out the trip then Absurde is the 2nd pick. He looked the winner last year until just fading in the last 200m. He looks primed to run a better race this time around and could become the first horse to win the County Hurdle and Melbourne Cup (yes that famous double!). Strictly speaking Zardozi wouldn't be an obvious one to reverse the Caulfield Cup form with Buckaroo or Land Legend, but I get the feeling that was part of the plan and that run on Saturday looked huge to me so she is the 3rd pick. Kovalica is the 4th pick as he might well have been crying to get back out to a trip that puts more of an emphasize on stamina and the Cox Plate run was solid. Vauban is the one that misses out, but if he went and won it wouldn't surprise. 1st Buckaroo @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred 2nd Absurde @ 8/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power 3rd Zardozi e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred 4th Kovalic e/w @ 20/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365 and Betfred (5 places)

Wycombe v York The home side are flying in League 1 this season which is why I initially didn't put them up as a bet. They are 2nd just behind Birmingham and ahead of Wrexham and lost just twice. Interestingly though they play Stockport on Tuesday night in what will be a much bigger match for both sides. If I am opposing Stockport because they will likely rest players, then it makes sense to take Wycombe on as well because there is surely a good chance they will do the same thing. We know what York are capable off and it is a similar bet to the FGR one really. I noticed York were initially put in as big as 16/1 and whilst they are shorter than that now they are still big enough to take a chance with. Price from Friday 11am York 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

Crewe v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham are nearly always worth opposing away from home and in the league they have only managed to win at Hartlepool on their travels this season. In their last 2 away games they have created very little at Yeovil and Oldham on Saturday. They did win at Leiston in the previous round, but then they ought to have done. Crewe are having a great season in League 2 and have won 7 of their last 10 league games just losing the once. After losing 5-0 to Chesterfield in their opening league home game they are unbeaten at home and I think they look a good price to knock out Dagenham. Hednesford v Gainsborough The prices for this game are way out for me. I accept that Hednesford are under performing a little in the league, but their squad is very good for the level and for me better than their opponents. I think it is fair to say their wage bill is rather higher. We were unlucky not to get paid out on them in the previous round against Gateshead and then they went and won the replay 3-1. Gainsborough had a great result themselves as they were also unlucky not to win the 1st tie against Boston and then beat them 4-0 in the replay. Their league form isn't great having won just 3 games and they are currently in the relegation zone albeit with games in hand because of their cup runs. Ultimately this is a great chance for either side to make the 2nd Round, but Hednesford should almost be favourites for me and at the price they rate a cracking bet. Stockport v Forest Green Used to write about this match as a league game a few years ago, but the home side are now in League 1 and having a good season losing just twice in the league although their first win in 5 games did come on Tuesday against Reading. Stockport lost to Aldershot in a replay in the Cup last season and I just wonder if we will see a few first team players rested. Forest Green are one of the title contenders this season so for them to be such a big price seems a bit over the top for me so happy to take a chance they can cause an upset. Woking v Cambridge United Woking did create much more against Forest Green last weekend although obviously the fact FGR had 10 men for a lot of the game helped. They host a League 1 side here and I can't believe Cambridge are a bigger price to win than FGR are. That doesn't make any sense to me. To be fair if this game had been a couple of weeks ago then Cambridge would have been coming into this without a win in the league, but then they beat Wigan, Stevenage and Burton. For me they will surely be looking to continue that good run of form and keep the confidence high so they should be too strong for Woking. Worthing v Morecombe Morecombe have won just 1 league game all season and I'm sure Worthing are eyeing up a possible upset here. Their form has been strong in the league of late and whilst there are 2 levels between the sides at the moment, you wouldn't go a huge price about it being a league game next season. With Worthing having a 3g pitch to add into the mix it looks a possible for an upset. Boreham Wood v Leyton Orient This game is on Sunday at 2pm and I think the home side can possibly have another FA Cup run. They haven't always been as good as I thought they would be this season, but the change back to the former manager does seem to have brought about improvement. It's just been 1 win in 7 for Orient in the league and whilst it is still a tough ask for the home side I do think there is a bit of value in the price. Treble Bradford, Grimsby and Accrington are the 3 sides I like at odds on to beat Aldershot, Wealdstone and Rushall respectively Prices from Thursday 11am Crewe 2.5pts @ 9/10 with Bet365 (Evs with William Hill and take up to 4/6) Forest Green 1pt @ 10/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (11/1 with Hills and take up to 13/2 Cambridge 4pts @ 19/20 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 4/6) Worthing 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 9/4) Boreham Wood 1pt @ 13/2 with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred (take up to 9/2) Bradford/Grimsby/Accrington 1pt treble @ 2.91/1 with Bet365 Hednesford 1pt @ top price (take up to 7/4)

Gateshead v Solihull Gateshead are strong at home to be fair, but they created very little against Sutton on Wednesday night with the goal coming via a penalty. Solihull weren't quite at their best against Woking, but they have the capability to beat Gateshead and these two sides are much closer in ability than the prices suggest. Cambridge City v Royston (FA Trophy) Cambridge are a pretty average Step 4 side, but they won away at Sudbury in the previous round and they have one more point in the league than Royston who are in 17th. They are clearly capable of beating a team of Royston's ability and hard to work out why they should be such a big price. Hungerford v Yate (FA Trophy) These two sides played each other in the FA Cup and the home side won 1-0, but it was a close game and Yate have been flying in the league. They are currently top of the table having lost just the once. Hungerford have only won once in the league in their last 10 games and that was a 9-3 victory over Plymouth Parkway. There isn't much between these two sides and Yate are a value play. Woking v FGR/Brackley v South Shields Yes I am opposing Woking again! FGR hit the top in midweek and are deservedly odds on to win this. Brackley have been well backed and host a South Shields side who have been really struggling for form on the whole recently. Prices from 1pm Friday Solihull 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred (365 are 15/4 and take up to 9/4) Cambridge City 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/2) Yate 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) FGR/Brackley 1pt double @ 1.94/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Via Sistina puts up one of the best performances you will see anywhere in the world this year to land the Cox Plate. She smashes Winxs course record by nearly 2 seconds as well.