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addpea last won the day on February 13

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About addpea

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  1. Only Hampton as Wealdstone didn't get their seats built in time and failed in the appeal. Hampton need to finish 7th though otherwise the 2nd place team get a bye.
  2. Barrow v Dover Two sides who are set to fall sort of the play-offs and I think both will be disappointed not to have made them as both looked like they would be in them at various times in the season. Dover had a great chance to take it down to the final day of the season, but they could only draw 2-2 against Macclesfield on Tuesday which means they need a minor miracle to reach them now. I don’t even fancy them to win here though as they look to have lost their form at the wrong time. They lost the crucial game to Aldershot on Easter Monday and then lost to Torquay last weekend. Barrow have beaten North Ferriby and Braintree in their last two games and having only lost twice at home all season I am sure they will be keen to end on a high note. This was always going to be a tough game for Dover to win anyway, but it is hard to see them being able to pick themselves up to gain 3 points after the disappointments. At around 6/4 the home side look a solid bet. Hungerford v Chelmsford and Poole v Dartford I am grouping these two games together because the reasons for wanting to back the two away sides are the same. Chelmsford and Dartford are locked together on 81 points in 3rd and 4th places. I think both will want to go into the play-offs in good form and both will want that psychological factor of finishing 3rd in the table so I don’t see any resting in their performances. Obviously as we know Hungerford and Poole can’t enter the play-offs and both have had a dip in form. Poole haven’t won in 5 and Hungerford have lost their last two including that very tame performance last week against Wealdstone. Both away sides are the same prices and I think they will both go into the play-offs with a win.
  3. As I mentioned in my preview Hitchin have been very hard to beat of late drawing a lot of games and I guess that could be down to the keeper based on Wednsday night. The Ryman Final is also on Monday but might not be priced up yet with the semis only last night.
  4. Seems like Lincoln had the better of the game from what I have read although sounds like Maidstone had a great chance deep into injury time. Gaz might know better than me though.
  5. I make it that Lincoln have made 9 changes from Saturday
  6. Was right about Maidstone drifting as they are now as big as 5/2
  7. Maidstone v Lincoln Well done to Lincoln for winning the National League title (even if it did mean they pipped my ante-post bet on Tranmere) as they have have had an incredible season. Now the job is done it is easy to think they might take their foot off the gas in this game. They have had a very busy schedule in the last two months and despite the fact they have won their last 7 games they haven't actually been playing all that well. We often see when teams win the league that their performance in the next game takes a dive and both Blyth and Chippenham who won their respective leagues early failed to win their next game. Maidstone continued their good run of form when getting a point on Saturday at FGR and just failing to land the odds of 6/1. No doubt they will want to go out and beat the Champions and they look a big price at 11/5 to beat Lincoln. Ryman Premier play-offs Bognor are warm favourites to go up via the play-offs and they have had an amazing season, but they really should have won the league. It looked like they had blown it by losing to Havant on Easter Monday, but then Havant could only draw on Saturday which meant if Bognor had of won their game they would have won the title. Having gone a goal up however they then conceded an equaliser in the 2nd half and they couldn't take advantage of Havant's slip up. They are now going to have to get themselves up for the play-offs and that could be a tough ask. For a long time it looked like Dulwich were going to miss out on the play-offs, but thanks to some of the teams above them having a big dip in form and Dulwich going on a good run meant they actually ended up coming 3rd. They drew a hell of a lot of games in the early part of the season and if they had turned some of those into wins they would have gone close to winning the title. They lost in the play-off final last season, but I don't think they will make the same mistake twice and they can finally get a deserved promotion to the National League South. Evo-Stik Northern Premier Play-Offs Stourbridge are already through after winning in extra time last night and whilst they will be tough opponents I think Spennymoor can claim promotion. Even though they were close on points, for me they were clear second best in the league this season and if they hadn't of had a big fixture backlog they might actually have pushed Blyth closer than they did. They have known for a while the title was impossible so have avoided any disappointment and they would have been working towards the play-offs. Evo-Stik Southern Premier Play-Offs Having put Leamington up pre-season it was disappointing how badly they blew up towards the end of the season. I know Chippenham went on an amazing run of form, but Leamington should have gone a lot closer than they did. They even lost 4-0 on Saturday and they are just woefully out of form. The same can be said for Slough who made the early running in the divison. Hitchin haven't won in 6 although they have drawn 5 of those with the defeat coming against Chippenham so you would be hard pushed to say they were out of form, but for me Merthyr are the team to be with. They come into the play-offs with the best form having only lost one of their last nine (again that was against Chippenham) and they look good value to gain promotion.
  8. I thought the bookies would just stick Lincoln as odds on and be as lazy as they were with the Wealdstone game at the weekend. Lincoln now being backed though and Maidstone drifting so could be worth holding fire as I think Lincoln will be backed blindly by people tomorrow.
  9. Hope you all got on Wealdstone. Rare the bookies make such a huge error like that and great to take full advantage.
  10. I know that, but I would be amazed if they were allowed to take part in the play-offs. It has never happened before so I don't expect it to happen here. Rules are rules and everyone knew them at the start of the season, Even if it does as things stand Wealdstone have a chance of getting into the play-offs so they have much more to play for currently so they certainly won't be easing off tomorrow. The match has been priced up as if Wealdstone have no chance of reaching the play-offs which is quite frankly wrong.
  11. Forest Green v Maidstone I’m struggling to see why Maidstone are such a big price here. Granted the home side have only lost twice at home all season, but one of those was to North Ferriby the other week. They lost to the other already relegated side Southport on Monday and with their play-off place assured they might just be taking their foot of the gas a little with that in mind. Maidstone continued their superb run of form on Monday and although they are now safe I reckon they will be really keen to finish in the top half of the table, something they could barely dream off at the turn of the year. They have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games and have won 4 of their last 5 on the road. Obviously FGR should be favourites, but no way should Maidstone be 6/1 (Bet365) and that looks a sporting play. Woking v York York could have been as good as safe if they had beaten Wrexham on Monday, but they had a surprising defeat and again they are only out of the relegation zone on goal difference. There away form has actually picked up since they won their first away game in an age on Boxing Day and they have only lost once, but this is a tough fixture with Woking also looking for the 3 points which will see them safe. Woking are in decent form at home having only lost once in their last 7. They had a confidence boosting win over Chester on Monday and they have only lost once in their last 6. Indeed they have picked up 1 more point than York in that period. The prices on offer are the sort of prices I would be expecting if York were at home and I just don’t get why Woking are as big as 5/2 (Bet365). Like the above game Woking are very much a sporting play. Wealdstone v Hungerford The prices on this game are staggering and it is no surprise the home side are being backed as what the bookies have missed, other punters certainly won’t have. A look at the table would make you think Hungerford need to win this game to try and over take Poole (2pts above them) in the race for the final play-off spot. So naturally with Wealdstone having nothing to play for the bookies have stuck Hungerford in as short price favourites. The problem is Poole and Hungerford have been barred from taking part in the play-offs because their grounds aren’t good enough. That means the team finishing in 7th place will take part and Wealdstone are 1pt behind Hampton who currently occupy that position. That of course means Wealdstone have something to play for whereas Hungerford have nothing. Indeed Hungerford lost 2-0 to Hemel on Monday which was their first defeat in 8 matches. Surely the fact they can’t play in the play-offs had a part in that and with Wealdstone only having lost one of their last 15 league games it is easy to see that the bookies have made a pretty big mistake in pricing this one up. It is no gimmie, but Marathon’s 11/5 is huge and I would have the teams prices switched around.
  12. Another decent day with 3 winners. Just two more round of matches left now.
  13. Round 1 wasn't great, but have a few bets tomorrow so busiest day in some time. Hopefully a few winners to be had. Barrow v North Ferriby The away side are all but down and frustratingly for me having backed them to finish bottom, they look set to finish in 23rd place. That is down to the fact they have picked up a couple of decent wins of late. First up winning at Forest Green was a superb effort and then they beat Eastleigh on Friday. Barrow haven’t looked all that convincing for a few weeks now and having looked potential title challengers at the run of the year, they now look set to miss out on the play-offs. Losing 4-1 to Bromley on Friday was probably the worst performance of the season and killed off any chance they had. This is obviously a high risk bet given Barrow’s home form and they are the right favourites, but I just don’t see why North Ferriby should be 12/1 (Betfair) shots to win this match and they are worth a speculative play. Chester v Woking At one stage Chester had an outside play-off chance, but they have been in free fall of late, so much so they are no only 4 points from the relegation zone. That should be enough with 3 games to go, but they shouldn’t really be in this position. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games with just two 1-0 victories over Bromley and Torquay to their name. Gary Hill has never been relegated as a manager and he is desperate to keep Woking up. A win here would be massive to that and they have only lost once in their last 5 games. The fact they are in that sort of form and are still only out of the relegation zone on goal difference shows how well the teams at the bottom have been doing. Woking’s away form has been poor so that is a concern, but in their last two on the road they have beaten Braintree and drawn with Barrow, so that certainly boosts confidence going into this. Marathon are a best price of 91/50. Eastleigh v Bromley Eastleigh are only 1 point in front of Chester which highlights the mess of a season they have had. They had hit a good run of form a few weeks ago, which is fortunate because without those victories they would be in deep trouble. The players clearly think they have done enough which was highlighted by the defeat to North Ferriby on Friday. Their home form has been shocking as well as they have just won once at home in their last 10 matches. Bromley had looked like they had eased off for the season as well and then they went and won their last 3 games including that impressive victory on Friday over Barrow. Their away form is pretty poor though having won just once in their last eight and that came at York last time out. That was a decent effort though and I am sure the players will be keen to finish in 10th which would be a massive achievement. I think 12/5 is too big as Bromley are playing better at the moment. Maidstone v Boreham Wood Most of the season Boreham Wood games have featured few goals and then all of a sudden there have been 16 in their last 3 games, of which they have lost two with the only win coming against North Ferriby. They also lost to relegated Southport just before those run of games and they certainly looked like they have eased up for the season. At one stage it looked like Maidstone were going down, but they have been superb in the last couple of months of the season. Their only defeat in the last 10 was to Macclesfield last week and they bounced straight back from that when winning at Wrexham on Friday. That run of form means they are now 5 points clear of the relegation zone and although that should be enough, one more win will confirm it. They look the bets of the day at 13/10 (various). Merstham v Kingstonian I opposed Merstham on Twitter on Thursday because they had only played on Tuesday and had a long trip to Lowestoft to contend with. They duly went and won 5-1! In typical fashion they then went and lost to relegated Grays on Saturday. Merstham are now safe and surely their players are feeling the effects of playing Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and now Monday. Kingstonian are 1pt clear of the relegation zone after a superb performance to beat 4th placed Leiston 4-2 on Saturday. New manger Craig Edwards has improved the away side and if they can back Saturday’s effort up here then they will more than likely be safe. Marathon’s 2/1 about an away win looks a decent price. Treble The treble pays around 100/30 with Marathon. Dagenham are the first team in as they host Sutton who still have just the 2 away victories to their name this term. It shows you how bad York were for most the season that despite their fantastic run of form they are still only out of the relegation zone on goal difference. Wrexham have been in bad form for a while now and it should be a home win. Finally I mentioned Lowestoft and Leiston above and they play each other tomorrow. I am kicking myself for not opposing Lowestoft on Saturday and it turns out they were only able to name 11 players. They are clearly down to the bare bones and although Leiston have been stuttering their way to the play-offs they should win this.
  14. Double header as always over Easter weekend with games Friday, Saturday and Monday. Prices are pretty tight again for the first round of matches so going to put up a treble of teams who are around the even money/5-6 mark. Granted Solihull will be wanting to bounce back from the 9-0 defeat last week, but York have finally got themselves out of the relegation zone and I fancy they will have enough to beat them. I am happy to take on Gainsborough again with another team looking to get in the play-offs Salford. Oxford City have been in desperate form and although things aren't rosy for Chelmsford off the field, on the field they could hardly be in better form and this should be an easy 3 points. Usually I am a singles man, but given the prices and the fact I would be having level stakes on them it seems better to stake a smaller amount on them all winning as would need 2 of them anyway to make a profit. If you really want to go for it you could add Lowestoft from tonight.
  15. You could see them getting a blank a mile off. Sounds like they were all over them especially in the first half. Apparently Lincoln didn't play all that well but did what they needed. Title is over for me now and I always knew Tranmere had the harder running and they again have a tough game on the TV on Friday. As for Lowestoft Merstham lost 4-1 in the end last night so hopefully better luck on that front.