Rob
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Posts posted by Rob
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. I see your point DP, and I admit the idea is not totally risk free (nothing is). I'm a bit out of touch with snooker thesedays (our lass will watch football, but point blank refuses to sit through a game of snooker), but is this Maguire much cop? I don't know much about him, but I'd suggest he's a big outsider and you can get 1.32 on ronnie at the moment. Maybe this reflects the fact that if Ronnie is going to have one of his "off days" it's more likely to be in the first round, before he's settled in. Also, if some unknown has just nailed hendry in the first round, will ronnie be as low as 1.1? I believe that whoever he plays in the semis or the final, he can't be lower than 1.4-1.45. Now, this suggests that either the outright price is too low or the match prices are too high. I don't know which way round it is, and do not have the patience to exploit a long term advantage on outright prices, so I belive this method is the way forward.
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Morning gents, just had a quick read through this, so excuse me if I've missed something obvious. But going back to the Ronnie O'Sulivan example.. If you lay Ronnie at 2.5, so someone stakes £10 you give them £25 back if he wins i.e. a liability of £15. Or, you stand to win £10 if he loses. Now, Ronnie can be backed at 1.3 in his first round match, so you stick £10 on him to win that. This way if he loses you break even, if he wins you make £3. Is it fair to assume that for his following matches he will not be less than 1.3, as he will be playing better opponents? Lets assume so, for the sake of this example. so in the 2nd round you stick the £13 ronnie winning at 1.3, if he loses you break even if he wins your up to £6.90 profit. You do this all the way to the final, and by then you're 27 quid up so if he wins and you lose your £15, your not too bothered. So, if my maths are right (it's still early) you stand to win £12, and at no point are you in any danger of losing money. Obviously, this all hinges on Ronnie never been lower than 1.3, but surley if he's 1.3 vs Maguire, he'll be higher than that against Higgins or Williams or Hendry. Mr Onemore, feel free to destroy my arguement...
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Re: Embassy world snooker I don't know much about the other guy, but thinking about it, it could end up messing with his head more than Hunters. PH strikes me as the kind of guy to put on a brave face and not let it get him down. The whole crowd will be on his side (unusual for a favorite) and I'm sure he'll be professional about it, maybe the value is the other way! Heres hoping for a full recovery anyway:ok
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Now I apoloigise if people think this is in bad taste, but here we go... I heard on the radio that Paul Hunter has be diagnosed with cancer of the colon. This must surely be a huge burden on his mind at the moment. I just wondered if any of our resident snooker experts (Paul?) thought there was value in laying Hunter in his first round match against Michael Holt? he can be layed at 1.4 on Betfair at the moment.
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Re: Laying the draw......any advice for me guys?
Callisto, maybe I'm missing the point but I can't see how this staking method makes you any more money. Surely, if the selections are good it wins, if they're bad it loses. My personal point of view is not to get too bogged down in staking plans and concentrate on picking winners (at good prices)One staking approach I've been pondering lately... Run 2 banks - start with £10 in each. Bank 1 bets on matches 1,3,5,7,9... Bank 2 bets on matches 2,4,6,8,... (i.e. alternate matches) Each bet stakes the whole bank (i.e. liability = whole bank) If one bank fails - ie. you hit a loser - then you've lost your £10. Let the other bank run for one more match and cash in. Then restart both banks again. Madness or megabucks? Comments on my sanity welcome. -
Re: Laying the draw......any advice for me guys?
Ian I have no stats to back this up, but I've also heard the there are less 0-0 draws in televised games because Sky try to pick the entertaining games to show live. Makes sense really, but I don't know if this is just a myth or noti reckon that when games are on the telly.... there will be less 0-0 draws.:hope a)cos i reckon players try harder when there's millions watching..... b) some players can't handle the pressure when it's on... so make mistakes that lead to goals. -
Re: Any opinions? Yeah, I think I share your sceptacism to be honest onemore. In theory it should work, but as you say it's all based on the rather large assumption that the mean scores are absolutely correct. I jsut thought someone on here might have tested the system, as I've read about it twice now, so I figured it might be a well known myth that someone could put me off straight away. I imagine that bookies come up with prices for correct scores in a similar manner, but where the apparent abnormalities come up it's just a case of their method being slightly more refined, rather than this method finding value. Don't think I'll go through the hassle of testing a system that I don't really believe in. Cheers for the response:ok
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Re: International Correct Score betting 30th March
In a word - No. I wouldn't take a shade over evens for for any team in Europe to score 5 against any other team in Europe. I wouldn't even take it for England (-3). It might come in, it might not, so I reckon it's worth a swerve *remember we only beat them 1-0 awayDoes any one think theres any value,in backing england -4 goals- I'm sure they can bag 5+ to make this bet pay - poland scored 8 so I'm sure asking for 5.0+ is not a big ask -please advise as I'm tempted for big wager.England (-4) 5/4 Tie 9/2 Azerbaijan (+4) evens -
Re: Any opinions? Come on! somebody must have seen this before No response today and I'll have to test it out on here
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Re: Russian Soul 2005 RUS, a word of advice, you shouldn't really edit your selections post to update with the results. You should put the results in a new post. Just so that people don't edit their selections after the event. Good luck
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Morning Gents/Ladies, First up, I apologise if this is covered somwhere else, I've just been too lazy to check. I was reading about a system for finding value in the correct scores market yesterday and wondered if anyone had experiance of using it. Basically it involves using a poisson distribution to determine the probability of each team scoring a particular number of goals. All you need is the mean number of goals you would expect a team to score in the game. It reccomends using reliable spread prices to determine the mean no of goals for each team. e.g. Say for Man Utd vs Arsenal the spread for total goals is 1.95-2.05, and the spread for Man Utd supremecy is 0.45-0.55. In this case it would be fair to assume that the 'mean' score would be Man Utd 1.25 Arsenal 0.75 (ie total goals 2, with man u scoring 0.5 more than the arse). So, in excel if the mean score for Man U is 1.25 you can plot a poisson distribution to tell you the probability of them scoring 1, 2, 3 etc goals. You do the same for Arsenal, then multiply the probabilities together to get the probability of a particular score. You then convert the probability to odds, and find a bookie that will give you higher than your calculated odds, then bobs your uncle. Now generally speaking, I'm not a fan of these 'non-football' methods, but I can see the logic behind this. I can also see limitations, such as why do you trust spread prices over fixed odds? and the fact that the no. of goals scored by each team is not independant any thoughts welcome :ok
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Re: Total Goals System Fair point, it's just personal preference I suppose. I had a fair amount of sucess on the unders market betting on "10/10" selections only. Then I got a bit slack and lost some of the money on ones that I wasn't so sure about. In this market I tend to think in terms of: will the bet win or loose, then I have a glance at the odds to make sure they're not ridiculously low. One of the hardest things on a system like this is to research a game, rate it 7/10 then walk away and bet on nothing because you're waiting for the 10/10. Thats not a critisism of your system, I think we just have a slightly different approach. Anyway, that's enough rambling from me, we've all got work to do!
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Re: Total Goals System Christianu, you seem to be doing alright on your own here, so tell me to fcuk off if you like. But I was just reading the bit about how you would have faried with level stakes. You said that a lot of your lower staked selections haven't come off, so why not be more rigerous and omit them completely? I imagine (correct me if I'm worng) that there's not a huge difference in the odds for these selctions, so if you went level stakes on everything that you would give say an 8/10 rating for, and dismissed everything below that, you may improve your profit. my view is only bet when the solid selections come along. Theres no need to have a large number of bets, you could just have 1 win out of 1 with a large stake. It's a bit more boring and takes more discipline but I reckon it's the way to go. it's your system, but I just thought I'd offer my opinion
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Re: Strategy...bet strong favourites on Betfair. what's the thinking behind this strategy?
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Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s?
NIG the pitfalls of this system may be magnified greatly if you start supping at 11:10 on a Friday morning!:rollin- right time for :beer -
Re: Doubles and Trebles bankers system... Iain, I'm not having a go here, but why do you think this will work? I often been told that so called 'bankers' are often poor value as the price reflects the fact that loads of punters bet on them
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Re: Low/High Scoring Game System NIG you may be interested to know that you can usually get a price for under/over 2.5 for just about everything on Betfair. there seems to be a bit of variation between betfair and mainstream bookies so you might want to have a look at both to get the best price.
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Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? I think it's generally accepted that this staking plan does not work in isolation (NIG I think joe may have had this discussion on here before). Basically, you only make very modest gains when you win, and eventually you will hit a long losing streak that wipes your bank out. Even if you have an infinite bank, you will get to a stage where your bets are to large and bookies will not accept them. The reason why this staking plan looks attractive is because it may well make you money in the short/medium term, but it only needs to spiral out of control once and then you're broke. You could even end up on the Ocean Finance advert ..."I aquired some CCJs....etc." I've always bet by the principle that if the single isn't good value, then no accumulator or staking plan will make it profitable. I think this is statistically correct, but no doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong
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Re: International Friendlies - 8th/9th Feb Fritz, How did you get on with your draws?
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Re: International Friendlies - 8th/9th Feb I reckon you could do a lot worse than adopting that strategy WAS. You do seem to get rediculously short prices for these farcical games. I think Holland coud do us on Wednesday if they're in the mood as we have our 5th and 6th choice centre backs playing. however, I generally leave these games alone as they are a load of bollocks
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Sco, may I recommend that you keep record of who the tips came from to try to attatch some kind of weighting to your selections. I'm not saying you should name and shame, but maybe take some tips with a pinch of salt
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Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea I'd crack on with the system while it's showing a profit, for piece of mind if nothing else. I see the point about the lack of value on the big teams, but if you assume the bookie is always right, you might as well quit betting. Another point about the acca's is that if you're winning 1 in 16 on average you may get long losing streaks that take forever to even out
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Re: WC Qualifiers & Friendlies - 16th/17th/18th November Daglashen, I generally agree with your points about Greece but I'm a bit wary as I don't know exactly how poor Kazakhstan are. However, if you've made your mind up you might want a bit of the 2.52 available on betfair for Under 2.5 goals
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Re: WC Qualifiers & Friendlies - 16th/17th/18th November I imagine Spain will roll it across the back 4 for 90 mins like the always seem to do. I'm expecting a dire game but can't bring myself to go under 2.5 cos someone like Rooney could just open it all up. Reyes and Helguera have been talking it up a bit, but it looks like another non-event/Real madrid training session. It would be funny though if Owen nailed Raul in the 1st minute... wonder what odds you can get on that NO BET for me
Tournament betting, examining strategies.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.
Hang on a minute, is this right? if he wins the tounement the backer gets 25 quid back including his stake i.e. you give him £15 and his £10 stake back right? However if he wins, you've backed Ronnie 5 times at 1.3 so you've got 10*1.3^5 = £37.13. Minus your £10 stake, thats £27 isn't it? So you pay out £15 and make £27?