Rob
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Posts posted by Rob
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Re: Total goals think tank Agree 100% on the recent form Brookes, I too look at the last 4 on the H2H site! but I also note whether the team is home or away. It's a very simple idea, but sometimes they're the best. Could have cleaned up on Burnley and Stoke this season, also Blackburn since Sparky took over
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With the football season coming to an end I thought I'd open up a discussion thread. Not sure this is in the right place but it seems as good a place as any. Now this thread might die on it's arse for a number of reasons: 1) People might not have any views on the subject, but I know Christianu follows this market so I want at least one reply! 2) People might feel that they lose thier competative edge by giving away 'secrets' on a public forum. 3) People may prefer a statistical approach to systems which may not lend itself to this kind of discussion. but what I'm after is peoples opinions on what factors affect the number of goals in a football match. I'll kick things off with what I call a 'Desperation Fixture'. Towards the end of the season you get games between 2 sides at the bottom of the league which are absolutely must win games for both sides. This may not mean that the teams play any better or worse, but if one team goes behind then the other will switch to a very attacking style as they now need to score 2. This seems to be more apparent in the premier league where the concequences of relegation are massive. I perfect example of this was the 4-3 between Norwich and Southampton last weekend. It also helps if both defences are crap (S'ton and Norwich again). discuss
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Re: UK General Election Cheers Dave, something tells me I should steer clear of betting on the election:ok
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Re: UK General Election
Im sure I'm wrong, but can sombody put me out of my misery and tell me why... if Labour win 374, tories 172 is that a majority of 202 isn't it? if so why can you get 35/1 on betfair for a majority of 161+?Final UkElect.com prediction (last time they were within 2 seats for each of the 3 major parties). Labour 374 (37%) Conservative 172 (32.5%) Lib Dem 69 (24%) -
Re: Embassy world snooker
Aye, look out for Bin Laden breaking into the top 16 next season :rollinFantastic performance from Murphy though. Supposedly he is a very religious man and I would imagine that helped him keep things in perspective more than Stevens (dont know?) -
Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) ....oh and another thing, My favourite misconception is that if you spend 2 weeks putting together a spreadsheet with some degree level maths and some fancy formatting on it, that the selections it makes must be good ones. rubbish in, rubbish out
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Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters)
It's an interesting one this ODM. Like you say it's all about opinions and we're not likely to prove this one way or the other. However, I just thought I'd put my two penneth in. I think it can sometimes have an effect, for example when Arsenal were on their unbeaten season. Towards the end of the season they seemed to get quite a few draws against teams they were expected to beat. I put this down to the fact that a draw was a good result for both teams i.e. Arsenal had wrapped up the league and were jsut concerned with not loosing, and if you're southampton or whoever, a draw against arsenal is a good result. I also remember hearing a rumour that Ron Atkinson got sacked from Wednesday (in his 2nd spell) because he didn't take the last game against Crystal Palace seriously. Basically we were safe from relegation so he wasn't bothered, but us getting beat cost the club a few million in prize money cos we dropped about 5 places in the league. I think most managers will be wary of doing an 'Atkinson', and probably reel off the same team talk of - 'These fans work 5 days a week then spend all their money coming here to watch you idle bastards' etc. towards the end of the season. So, generally I think I agree with you, but I wouldn't rule it out completelyMy two favorites at this time of the year are really two sides of the same coin. 1. A football team is more likely to win because they need the points. Usually quoted about teams trying to avoid relegation. It's bollox. If a team need the points to avoid relegation it's because they havent been good enough to win. To suddenly expect them to wake up one day near the end of the season and decide to play well defies any logic but I can almost guarantee you'll see it quoted in the Brit forum this weekend. and the other side of the coint 2. A team is a good bet to be beaten if they have nothing to play for. Leaving aside the obvious cases where teams field weakened teams and also leaving aside that the odds compilers probably build this factor into the odds themselves anyway, teams will defy this "logic" so regularly that it becomes a nonsense. I don't have to look too far for an example, Blackburn (with nothing to play for) coming back to draw against West Brom (who had to win) tonight. No wonder the bookies are rich:D -
Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Right here's a summary of bets so far... Lay Ronnie @ 2.54 I win $9.50 if he goes out, I pay $15.40 if he wins Back Ronnie through the rounds 1st round, back Ronnie @1.32 with $9.50, got $12.38 back (a/c) 2nd round, back Ronnie @1.15 with $12.38, got $14.15 back (a/c) 3rd round, back Ronnie @1.21 with $14.15, will get $16.97 back when he beats Ebdon. So I've now got 2 rounds to get up to $24.90 to break even.
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Re: anyone help a novice? Cheers guys, I'll see you in the Bahamas with my winnings :rollin :ok
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I know nothing about horses, but I'm going to Pontefract tomorrow for an afternoons racing. Anyone got any strong views on horses that could do well? Sorry I have no racing knowledge to offer you guys in return:o
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. I seem to have loused up the maths in the previous post as my next bet is £14.15, I try to tidy this up later.:o Anyway, £14.15 on Ronnie at 1.21 (theres a fair bit of money either side of this price, so I don't think it's gonna move too much). this to win £2.97 (2.82 after commission) and put the bank up to £16.97. I'll try to summarise the bets in a new post when I get chance
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Re: Embassy world snooker You can back mark williams at betfair @ 1.1 for the highest break. Am I missing something here, or is this just printing money. ( I know a 147 is not technically the highest possible break, but the odds of somebody getting a foul, then knocking in a 147 must be massive)
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Re: Arbing Q & A's Hi Mark, you might not answer these but here goes... 1) how do you find your arbs? some sites I've seen e.g. betbrain have some arbs on there but they all seem to be with one stake at some tin pot bookie with exchange fees and deposit fees eating up the margin. do you rely on the exchanges? 2) Have you ever fallen foul of the 'palpable error', where bookies refuse to honour a price on the ground that it was a mistake? 3) Are your bets as straightforward as in your example, or do you use variations on arbing. e.g. betting on Man U, Arsenal and Chelsea to win the league is not a true arb, but is sometimes refered to as one. e.g. do you rely on a price to move before locking in the profit i.e. back ronnie o sullivan to win the snooker at 2.5 in the first round, then lay him at 2.0 a week later in the second round. ...just to get the ball rolling
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Re: The 10/10 System I reckon if you're thinking about it, it's probably not! I think it's just having the dicipline to say "to be honest, I don't know enough/haven't watched enough games etc. to be able to make the call" Everybody on here want's to think they know it all (me included), so that makes the above very hard to do. Like the other week I was thinking- I know that Liverpool are going to get knocked out of the CL by Juve. But then I thought hang on, how many Juve games have I seen this season? the answer is just the first leg at Anifield, so why do I think I'm an expert on this game? I came to the conclusion that I was talking shite, and didn't bet, thus saving myself the money I would have lost. Having said that you might be well up on Everton and Man U, or it might fit the criteria of your 0-1 goals system, in that case go for it.
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. OK, got £12.38 on Ronnie against Carter at a rather skinny 1.15. Didn't see the carter vs. fu match, but I was hoping for about 1.2 :( Anyway, break even if Ronnie goes out, and up to £4.33 'profit' (after commission) if he wins. (yes, I know it's not really profit yet) maybe Ebdon or Lee can give him a better game in the next round
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Re: The 10/10 System Hope it works out mate, cos now you'll make me look a c*nt as well if it doesn't:lol I'm a firm believer that the key to long term profit is in the bets you leave out rather than the ones you put in. i.e. if you miss a good bet, you don't loose anything, but if you back a bad one, you're down. i'm not sure that the above point actually makes sense, but I know what I mean:ok
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Thought Ronnie was on his bike early doors there! Unfortunately for me, ronnie showed quite a lot of nerve against maguire, probably shortening his price even further in the next round. He might just have helped me out though with his annual 'I don't give a fcuk about snooker' interview afterwards:rollin
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.
Data, you may be right here, but isn't Marco Fu doing alright in the premier league snooker? (just checked, he's joint top with Ronnie and Hendry). Also, I wouldn't expect 1.1 against Ebdon in the next round. Plus the semi's and the final must be at least 1.4? Only time will tell, but I can afford to stand a couple of quid in the name of science!emersonthome, i think you may have jumped the gun a bit because i'm actually thinking to go the complete opposite :lol Look at the draw; if Ronnie wins his first match he will face either Marco Fu or Allister Carter, currently on the outright market at 160 and 120. So that will be a match where Ronnie could be priced as low as 1.10. In the next round he will face one of these : Stephen Lee, Tony Drago, Peter Ebdon, Quinten Hann, again possibly a very low price for Ronnie. It won't be until the semi-final that you can get a good match price again, and then that depends on who makes it. -
Re: What is a system?
To me, this is the point of having a rigerous system, to throw up bets that aren't blindingly obvious. If you are looking at a bet and thinking it's stupid, then chances are other people are thinking the same. Therefore, the price might be pretty high, and if the system works and picks these bets out, then it's a way of finding value. Having said this, I'm not losing any sleep over Sco posting his gut feelings system on here! so good luck matei mean many of the systems people have had, I have always thought that is a stupid bet to make, but because it falls in the rules, they have included it. Sco -
Re: What is a system? I agree with all of the above, and I've got no problem with Sco posting his selections in here. However, it is only a 'strategy' in the loosest (spelling) sense of the word. I thought a strategy was supposed to have some kind of theme, rather than just being a series of unrelated bets. If everyone posted their gut feeling on this page, we'd be over-run with posts that could just be a repeat of the divisional and other sports threads. Just my view, and I'm not trying to single Sco out, but if it's just for your own records why don't you just keep an excel sheet on your desktop?
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Re: Total Goals System is the Inter bet void now, or do you have to take the 3-0?
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Re: Football High-Low System Good luck with the system mate, but one thing is puzzling me... if you've staked 12.5 @1.8 on the wigan match, shouldn't you have a 9.5 profit (assuming 5% commission)? i.e. 12.5*0.8*0.95=9.5 that way your bank would be 59.5 not 58.88?
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Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.
Well lets find out shall we.... I've layed Ronnie at 2.54 this morning with a backers stake of £10. So I stand to win £9.50 (after commission) if he loses and pay out £15.40 if he wins. I've also backed him in his 1st round match at 1.32 with a £9.50 stake to win £2.89 after commission. I'm not going to retire on any profit here, but I think it'll be interesting to see if theres a "+" on the profit and loss by the end of the tournement. :hopeHi Emerson, You're right there:ok - I have made a mistake.:o As you say, the profit in this example is around £12. Which makes me wonder what is going on in this situation.....as even if the next two opponents are easier at say 1.20, and taking commision, you're going to shade a profit here (don't take my word on that!!!!!) -
Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.
Mr Onemore, I think you're wrong here. If ronnie wins I pay out £15 because the £25 includes the backers stake. If you go onto betfair and try to lay Ronnie, put 10 in the 'backers stake' box and it will tell you that your liability is £15 (I know its 2.54 now or something, but you see the point) However, you may be right that I've underestimated Maguire. I'll do this one on paper and see how it pans out:okIf however Ronnie doesn't lose at all, but wins the tournament, Then you payout £25 to your backer.
Total goals think tank
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Total goals think tank It's interesting to get different views on this. I'm a big believer that psychology and tactics play a big part in this maket (and many others too). This is probably one area where I differ with you mr onemore as your strategies seem to be very statistics based, wheras mine are more qualitative than quantitative. I think people frequently underestimate how hard it is for any team to score against a side who know they are inferior, and therefore put 10 men behind the ball. This is usually combined with complacency from the superior team and leads to a low scoring game. e.g. England vs. Azerbejan (both games). With this in mind I fancy under 2.5 for Chelsea vs. Charlton this weekend. It might not get the Emerson doller though, as I'm not sure that Curbishly knows how crap they are, and he might try to take them on