Rob
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Posts posted by Rob
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Re: 'Strategies' Welcome ginger bear, There's a few questions in there and I'm not sure that they can all be answered in one go. I've always believed that unless you're betting at particularly low or high odds then your staking method is largely irrelevant i.e. whether you are using spread bets or accumulators or singles, they are just different versions of the same bets -so a bad bet in a Yankee is still a bad bet in singles. The key is always to find value bets, where your estimate of the odds is better than the odds on offer. Simple really, if you crack that bit, let me know!
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Re: Wolves v Man City - April 22nd Lost my nerve and bailed out with a small profit, layed off at 2.9
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Re: Wolves v Man City - April 22nd
I'm inclined to agree with this, although will take the 3.1 available with Betfair with the option to trade out at H/T depending how the game is looking. City have nothing to gain from busting a gut to hammer Wolves, it's all about getting 3 points on a rainy away day and getting back to Manchester for the big game. Wolves only objective today will be to not get absolutley tonked. This could end up 0-7, but it could just as easiliy finish 0-1. Worth a small interest on the under 2.5 I think 4 pts @ 3.1Under 2.5 @ 2.75 pinnacle Wolves are gone and are just playing for pride, and will be looking to repeat their performance in the corresponding fixture last season, when they beat them 2-1 at home. However unlikely that is, they will take some confidence from last weeks 0-0 draw away to Sunderland where they got their first clean sheet in 31 games. Man City should win here, but by home many goals is the question. They beat Norwich 6-1 and West Brom 4-0 in their last two games, which may suggest that they are making one last run for the title. However their away form in the last two months has been a cause for their decline, as prior to their win at Norwich, they had just two wins from their last 8 away games. They conceded one goal in 5 of these 8 away games with the other 3 being shutouts, while they only scored one goal in 3 of these games, while not scoring in the other 5 games. Also they may be looking ahead to next weeks big game with Man Utd, and may not be fully focused for this game. They still should win, but banking on this not being a blowout Season record: 147-208 (-10.31) -
Re: KMAbet's Betting Exchange Strategy Interchange Really KMAbet? again? ok I'll bite, you seem to have posted half a system without the important element of actually making it work? A system that looks remarkably similar to the last one you posted (oops we're not allowed to talk about that are we). Can we conclude from this that you were a tad premature with your previous 'holy grail' claims?
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Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Out if interest, why the progressive staking instead of level stakes? Never understood why people use this
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Re: High risk,High reward Laying system -Thoughts please. I think your long term prospects are pretty poor on the evidence you've given. You lay horses at 5/1, is that it?
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Re: newbie,first {football}system
If i can run this for ten years then i will be a very rich' date='happy man!.[/quote'] I said it could run for 10 years, it could also run for a very expensive 5 weeks ;) Fair enough if you want to go ahead with it, but I can't follow the logic of why this is a winning system. So to quote Peter Jones - '..and for that reason, I'm out' p.s. a Yorkshireman, not originally from Sheffield but lived there for a few years -
Re: newbie,first {football}system
If the system is already profitable then why are you using a mathematically flawed staking plan? If Man Utd and Chelsea were good value every week then the washed up guys you see in betting shops every week would be millionaires, and the bookies would be broke. you could run this for 10 years without making a loss, but that doesn't mean the martingale system is working, it just means you've been lucky and at any time you could get wiped out by a bad run of games. Be honest with yourself and think about how the martingale staking plan could possibly turn bad bets into good ones? answer - it can'tThanks for your interest and feedback and openmindedness.The martingdale system exists to expand an already profitable strategy' date=I think that may well be the trick here. -
Re: PitMaster - Asian Handicap Startegy - 2007
Hardly, you spelt the title wrong ;) only kidding mate, good luck with this20.12.2006 Great Start ! -
Re: World footballer of the year When I clicked on this thread I expected to see Cannavaro at about 1/4! I thought it was generally accepted that he was nailed on for this? If these odds are still available I might have a small interest in this
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Re: Can I change my name? Cheers mate :ok
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Re: Can I change my name? Don't suppose the user name 'Rob' is available is it? I feel like a bit of a dick being named after an ageing brazillian centre back who was only at wednesday for a couple of seasons
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Re: Lay the crappy New Manager markets 1.36 :( my 3.95 lay isn't looking very healthy now
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Re: Lay the crappy New Manager markets You're right Ned, the price has gone out to 3.95 so it looks like i've missed the boat a bit. Still layed him, but I should have been bolder eary on
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Re: Lay the crappy New Manager markets O' neil can be layed for the villa job at 3.0 on betfair now!? who would be posting that up unless they knew something? Don't know if this is some kind of double bluff situation, but this price seems so ridiculous that I can't help thinking there must be something in it. Do I go with the obvious and lay O'neil again (why the f*ck would he go to Villa?) or is it TOO obvious? Thoughts anybody? (the 3.0 is now 3.8)
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Re: Lay the crappy New Manager markets I think this could be a great system, and was planning something like this myself when the season starts. The Sunderland job has been up for a bit too long for me to get involved but the first manager to go in the season and I'm on. You could probably turn a profit by laying Martin O'Neil alone for every job in football! :rollin Think of the killing you could have made on the England job!
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Re: Trusting the Odds System! Good luck Bigs :ok
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Re: Trusting the Odds System! but the high probability is reflected by the low odds. if you have 10 even money bets you can win 1024 points by risking just 1 point, but if the price is fair then you only have a 1 in 1024 chance of actually doing it. I don't really see much difference from your system to what thousands of people do in betting shops every day i.e. low odds accumulators, and you don't see to many of them getting rich. I don't want to be overly critical, but I can't see where you're getting an advantage here
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Re: Trusting the Odds System! Is there a reason why you think bets with low odds are good value?
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Re: How to become a winner in Betting Goodfren, I'm not quite sure if i follow what you're saying here, let me see if I've got this right. If for example, i regularly get an average of 60 winners out of 100 bets, do you suggest that if after 80 bets I'd already won 60 times I should miss the remaining 20 bets, then start again?
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Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I think you can just leave Plymouth in the unders list every week mate!
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Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi TS, Good luck with the system, it seems to be going well so far. Just out of interest, I was wondering if your selection criteria are purely statistical or are some a bit more subjective. i.e. If I used your system would we get the same same results every time or would it depend on how we'd each assessed certian criteria? does that make sense?
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Re: martingale problem with a friend It is a mathematical FACT that his system is flawed, If that's not enough for him then you may have to let him find out the hard way
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Re: Next England manager
The daily mail reckon that the job is O'Neils of he wants it, but they have no quotes to back this up. Hiddink also nailing his colours to the mast by saying the job would be a perfect way out of the agressive atmoshere in Holland. Apparently he's has death threats and live bullets sent to his parents house (Sven doesn't know he's born!). Think you're being a bit harsh on Big Sam there Carl, he's handled big names like Okocha, Hierro and Campo. He also seems to get the best out of unsavory twats like Diouf. My only worry with Sam is his lack of experiance in continental football, I think that will bother the FA too. If it's not Hiddink, then somebody wants sacking at the FA. Lets hope they do the right thing :hopeI think you can take O'Neil out of that trio Paul. His main concern is his private life. Rumour round here is the FA have had Hiddink in mind since all this sven-gate thing started. But it would raise concerns over his commitment to his clubs. I personally wouldnt want a manager who jumps ship at the first chance of something better. But his CV is rather impressive. I think it would have been better if Sven went NOW and we got(somehow) Hiddink for the world cup then brought Big Sam after in to give him time to learn what is needed to take us upwards. Youve got to ask whether big Sam will 'improve' the England squad in all areas and can he manage pri-maddona superstar footballers? I know he can get the best out of players at the end of there careers but we need someone who's used to dealing with BIG name players.
'Strategies'
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: 'Strategies' If you're talking about backing each outcome so that you're guaranteed a return, then you're basically talking about arbitrage. There are websites dedicated to this but opportunities are very hard to come by