markus808
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Posts posted by markus808
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Is there a live betting thread? I got Manchester to win @ 1.7 when they were leading 1-0
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Seems like a good week for live bets, many teams will try to improve their standings and need to play for points, others again may have lost their motivation. Lot's of variance this week I'm afraid.
I will put small bet on Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 0.5 @11 Bet365. This score will definitely happen more often than only once out of 11 games played, so it's a good value bet for me.
Also thought about betting on draw, but found a better bet which covers more of the variance Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 1.5 @3.75 Bet365. So basically I'm betting against the 1-1 score line which is a bookies favorite. I think we will see negative football from the Chosen One and they will be happy with a draw. And if they happen to get a head I think they can hold it until the end, Liverpool is easy to frustrate. -
Leicester vs Bournemouth draw @ 3.70 with Betsafe seems like a value bet, correct line should be something like 2.50 2.86 4.00 imho. There shouldn't be such a wide gap between the clubs as the odds may imply.
Swansea vs West Ham, Swansea's last 3 home games have been wins (Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley) West Ham has lost their last 3 away games. Swansea @ 2.65 with Betsafe seems to be a good bet. Also both teams to score @ 2.08 with Betsafe seems value, it should happen more often than not.
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Good job, do you think it will work in later stages too? My hypothesis is that it wouldn't be as profitable because the odds would be more even.
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Arsenal has just 1 WIN of their last 7 away games in all competitions, so I would think twice before betting on them. Also @ 1.51, they offer hardly any value.
6 hours ago, kilkenny1 said:Cant see past an Arse/Pool double tonight. Huddersfield are perfect opponents for the Reds to put their bad week behind them. Fancy Pool to get back to their free scoring best here, something like 1-5. Strongly fancy Arsenal to do something similar. The Sanchez saga can work in the Gunners favour here and they wont be as wasteful as Pool were. Swans are going down this year, theyre just not good enough and expect them to be comprehensively outplayed here on a ground where the Arse usually go well. Prediction 0-3.
Double straight at evs, minus 1 cap @3/1 will look at minus 2 also
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Swansea vs Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.18 Unibet. Expecting similar game as against Liverpool, Swansea is defensively solid if they decide to park the bus, which they do against top clubs.
Everton vs Leicester 1x @1.45 Betsafe. I think the market has overreacted to Leicesters recent draw with Chelsea. Although I'm a fan and Leicester are better on the paper, they are notoriously unreliable and should not be favorites away to Everton.
I agree, West Ham took a heavy loss losing two of their best offensive players. There is some value in laying the Hammers.On 23.1.2018 at 1:59 PM, Mindfulness said:West Ham Utd V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.25 AH @ 1.83 Betvictor
Haven't run the numbers for this one yet but don't have time as markets will move quick now this has made the news:
Palace were on my shortlist for this gameweek anyway, I'm getting my money in early before value evaporates. Haven't done full analysis yet but ELO ratings suggest level match + Palace get to rest on FA Cup 4th round weekend where as West Ham face quick turnover of matches.
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Riyad Mahrez is playing against a side without a clean sheet in the last 10 Gameweeks. Over that period he has scored five goals.I see value in Riyad Mahrez anytime goalscorer @ 3.00 with Betsafe, medium stakes.
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I see many games that could go either way. These are really hard to predict and the odds reflect that. But I think it's a good week for live betting. So I'm going to watch the games and shots statistics and then make bets on the sides that seem stronger. Odds on Swansea win look bit off but I will watch the first 20 minutes or so and then make a bet.
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I think there's some value on today's game West Ham vs Huddersfield away team to win to nil 5.95 @Betsafe. You can also take the AH line if you want to be more conservative. West Ham has had an uninspiring/horror start and Huddersfield is doing quite the opposite, that's why I like the odds here.
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Manager: Markus Tani
Team Name: FC Bioloogiline Ema
Forum Username: markus808 -
9 hours ago, Rusian said:
Hi guys, I found new information about this match, correct score 3-1.
What are you thinking about it?
Little ambitiously or cool?Not worth it, it could be 4-2, 5-1 as easily, go for over 3.5 goals if you think it's high scoring game
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Lay Portugal, huge value. Portugal is not better than Hungary, imagine if Hungary would play Croatia, 1x2 odds would not be so generous as they are now against Portugal
2.62 / 3.0 / 3.1. Draw no bet is also possible but if you think a draw is possible outcome you should put a bet on it.
My picks:
5 units on 1x 1.36 at betfair
2 units on 1 2.62 at betfair -
Poland has a chance to win the Group C if they win and score at least 1 more goal than Germany (goal difference is +2 to Germany, +1 to Poland). Ukraine has showed lack of team spirit, 0 points and goal difference 0:4 means they are already packing bags, goals are likely. I expect RUS vs WAL style meltdown, whereas Northen Ireland vs Germany is more than likely to be tight game. NIR will fight for a point, Germany will also rest some players.
1.5units Poland to win group C @ 5.5 betfair -
What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.
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I'd lay England and Belgium with these odds, way off imho, the odds should be around where Italy's are, lot of fan money there.
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My bet for today is correct score 1-0 6.0 @betfair. I see a lot of value there, because this is exactly the kind of result to expect in these kind of matches. It would be a mirror result to their previous game. Atletico has shown that they can defend, even with 10 men. 1-0 would also suit both sides and no one needs to risk too much before going to the extra time. But Bayern need their goal and they showed that they can put a pressure on Atletico and were little bit unlucky and dont forget that Atletico has the best defence in Champions League.
So 1-0.
Also Over 6.5 Cards 2.58@betfair. Is worth to chek out, value is quite thin, but there still is something. Bayern 19 yellow 1 red, Ateltico 20 yellow, 1 red in 11 matches, last game had 5 yellows, but there could be some more today because no need to hold back anymore.
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2 hours ago, hugothefourth said:
Hey guys, some advice required!
I stuck £20 on a treble late last night (this morning
I mean) on Fernando Verdasco at 5/2 to win in straight sets (who was already down a break), some other random S.American football match to win at just over evens and also a correct score group betting on PSG to win 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 at 11/2. I woke up this mornign to find that the first two came in! but I'm much less confident about the PSG leg winning. It's an almost £800 return. So how would you chaps cover or even strengthen this position?
Just put say £200 on x2 @ 2.38 and put a £10-25 on almost every win you didn't cover and it's
time!
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Some useful statistics:
Norwich vs Aston Villa:
- Since winning away at Bournemouth in GW1, Aston Villa have picked up just two points in eight PL away games in 2015-16 (D2 L6).
- The Canaries have netted just four goals in their last five PL games at Carrow Road, three of which have been scored from corners.
- The Canaries have scored in all but two of their 27 league meetings with Aston Villa at home.
- Aston Villa have won just three of their last 12 PL games against newly-promoted opposition (W3 D3 L6).West Brom vs Newcastle:
- West Brom have fired in fewer shots on target (50) than any other PL team
- Newcastle have now conceded 68 PL goals in 2015, more than any other side
- Newcastle United have lost just one of their last seven PL meetings with WBA (W4 D2 L1).
- The Magpies have only failed to score in two of their last 28 league meetings with West Brom
- The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their last 14 PL away games
- West Brom have attempted a league-low 155 shots (inc. blocked) in the PL in 2015-16Everton vs Stoke:
- Butland as the best saves to shots ratio (82%) of any goalkeeper in the PL
- Stoke have the worst chance conversion rate (9.7%) in the PL this season.
- Stoke scored with 2 of their 3 shots on target while Man Utd was wasteful with their chances: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXKSUnEWYAEZDMm.png
- There have been 19 goals scored in the last four PL games played at Goodison Park; an average of 4.8 per game
- The Potters have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six PL games away from home – this is more than they'd kept in their previous 33 PL away games (4).Crystal Palace vs Swansea:
- Swansea have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games, losing six of these (D2).
- Swansea have won three of their last four league away trips to play Palace at Selhurst Park (W3 D0 L1).
- The Swans have conceded only three goals in their last eight league games against Palace.Watford vs Spurs:
- Since losing away to Man Utd on MD1 (0-1), Spurs are unbeaten away from home in the PL (W3 D4).
- Watford have kept six clean sheets in their nine PL home games so far in 2015-16.Arsenal vs Bournemouth:
- The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 21 PL meetings with newly-promoted opposition (W17 D4)
- Arsenal have scored in each of their last 29 PL games against newly-promoted opposition.
- Bournemouth are now unbeaten in six Premier League matches (W3 D3).Man United vs Chelsea:
- Man Utd have lost just one of 15 games with Schneiderlin starting, and five of 11 without him.
- Man Utd have averaged just 1.29 goals per game in the league this season; their lowest average since 1989-90 (1.21).
- Stoke scored with 2 of their 3 shots on target while Man Utd was wasteful with their chances: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXKSUnEWYAEZDMm.png
- The last three fixtures between these two sides at Old Trafford in the PL have produced just three goals in total.
- Man U have kept six clean sheets and conceded just three goals in their eight PL home games in 2015-16.
- Man U have won just four of their last 10 PL home games (W4 D4 L2).West Ham vs Southampton:
- Saints have won just two of their last 15 PL away games (W2 D5 L8), netting just 11 goals in this run
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last six PL home games, but four of these have been draws (W2 D4 L0).
- Despite being injured since early November, Payet has created more than twice as many chances as any other West Ham player in the PL this season (47).Man City vs Leicester:
- Leicester (vs Liverpool) failed to score for the first time in all competitions since May 16th, a run of 22 matches (0-0 vs. Sunderland).
- Man City have scored just one goal in their last four PL away games.Sunderland vs Liverpool:
- Sunderland have now conceded 28 goals in just 10 PL away matches this season, more than any other side.
- Sunderland have won just three of their 28 PL games against Liverpool, all by a one goal margin at the Stadium of Light.
- Liverpool have conceded only 10 goals in their last 22 league meetings with Sunderland.
Credit for the stats goes to ZASA EL WEÓN from fantasyfootballscout forum
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Followed it big on betfair "booking points 56+" @ 2.7 and it won. You were really quite unfortunate, but it worked for me, thanks for spotting the edge!Hallelujah! Just over a week's wait and we have the second incidence of a potentially worthwhile bookings bet based on the discrepancy between the spreads and fixed odds prices. Mexico v Ecuador: >60 bookings points at 3/1 with PP -
Re: Arsenal v Chelsea > Sunday April 26th Mourinhos record against Wenger is notorious and Chelsea can get a result in away matches, so my main bet is chelsea to win @ 3.3, also a draw could be an option, so I took CS 1:1 @ 7.2 (hedge), 2:2@ 17.00 (profit).
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Re: PuntersLounge Fantasy Football - £20 Entry - Pot Currently £680! I am in
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Re: Third Place Play-Off - Brazil v Netherlands > Saturday July 12th Four times in the WC history have hosting team played the third place play-offs and every time hosts have won. So I'm taking Brazil @ 2.15 (bet365). I'm taking small bet before the game (2/10) and then will be watching the game for more information, if Brazilians seem to be playing with motivation to win and Holland will be playing like they dont care I'll put another 10/10 bet on Brazil to win in normal time.
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Re: South Korea v Algeria > Sunday June 22nd Went heavy on Algeria to score first after seeing first 15 minutes on livebet. Most of my previous losses in this WC could have been avoided, if i had observed the game first for some time before making any bets. I think team motivation and performance can change a lot depending on previous games, opposition and what not. I can't see any value at this point going for straight 1x2 markets before games like this, there is little or practically no information beforehand, teams are uncomparable. Only information is the odds (and this is always a trap) and bets based only on odds should generally be avoided (because bookies always have more information). At group stages only if you spot someone being big underdog when they should not (Nigeria, Chile etc) there's justification making 1x2 bets before kickoff.
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Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th
Have to agree it is clear value and it's overcorrection from punters, I took it only because of the big drift. Portugal is good team defensively and Germany should play cautiously in the first round, draw is not bad result for either of team and with the news that Ronaldo is starting Germany will play with more respect. x2 also seems value @ 1.92 triobet, it is similalrly prized like the Spain - NED game, but the gaps in differences are not that big and neither team must not win at all costs, this is why I went with small amount on x2 and main bet Under 2.5 @ 11/10 You can always pick correct score 2-1 to germany as a insurance and go heavy on the other two, which is what I just might do.Germany V Portugal Under 2.5 @ 11/10 (Betfair) > 5% BR The price on under 2.5 for this game has simply become too big to ignore here. Under 2.5 for Germany V Portugal was around 8/13 when I looked at it a week ago, now it’s odds against – ridiculous. My only explanation for this is that casual punters have been seeing the high number of goals in the tournament so far and simply made the correlation that it will continue here in a match between two quality sides. I’ve been banging on about the tropical zone in a few of my world cup posts but again, this game will take place in the tropical zone, near 30 degree heat, 75% humidity. Rain is again forecast and although this can temporarily cool the players, it will make their shirts heavier as the game goes on and will feel more and more oppressive as events progress. I think in respect to both teams we will see two well organized units with decent game management. The fact that these two are favorites to qualify and go head to head in opening game should definitely be considered as an argument for unders here. For me this is not a particularly cavalier Portugal side (I don’t care how many goals they’ve scored in the warm up games), I find it likely coach Paulo Bento will take a cautious approach to this match. People will talk about Ronaldo but his preparations have been hampered for this tournament through injury. I’m sure he will play today but in terms of fitness, not likely to be at his peak. The same goes for several members of the Germany squad, Reus is out as we know and he is someone who can give them a bit extra going forward so it’s a blow for them. The tournament in Brazil has been really great so far with lots of high scoring matches which has surprised me, especially since it’s the opening round of games. I feel this contest has the potential to be a rare underish game, the price on overs is stupidly short in my opinion so I will go the other way. Under 2.5 at odds against might not win on the day but over a large sample size I feel this selection will generate profit. Standard value bet, nuff said.
Premier League Predictions > Mar 17th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted · Edited by markus808
Maybe try 1-1 @ 6 with bet365, or even 0-0 @6 and 1-1 @ 8 together. It's bit higer still than the 3.20.
(8+6)/2? This calculation assumes that the likelihood of both outcomes is the same, which is not true, if we think it were we should adjust our betting and bet less on higher odds and more on lower.
Can anyone point me to a calculator or a formula how to calculate the combined odds return of the above bet, I think I might have a brain damage from german weissbeer