markus808
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Posts posted by markus808
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I'm looking at the offside markets and found these odds: Side with the most offsides 1.65 3.80 4.20. I think these are beautiful odds and should be taken. It's more of a coin flip in my book. Both sides hardly getting any offsides in the later stages: France 1 offside vs Croatia 3 in their last three games. I don't see either of them changing their winning ways and starting to put long balls forward or changing their formation.
I'm definitely putting some money on that market:
Side with the most offsides x @3.80 and 2 @4.20 with Unibet.
Under 2.5 offsides @1.90 with Unibet -
2 hours ago, johny88 said:
thanks, i also agree with what you wrote, Mbappe was great against a weak argentina but for example against weak uruguay i dont recall him being very decisive or present, lets not forget he is only 19 and has tons of pressure from french media and all the social medias.
i am annoyed that Meunier is missing for Belgium and that from the last 3 games Belgium has had 2 days less rest between games than France (france 11 days 3 games, belgium 9 days 3 games) but i will still take belgium for their non stop attack and also because france to me is slightly over estimated.
15Godin and Caceres have been eating Mbappes for the morning for decades now, he is not fooling guys like them with his runs
Let's just say France has had easy games thus far. Belgium, on the other hand, has taken it easy although finding herself in tough situations. So tournament wise I see Belgium coming in better prepared having been tested two times already. I would rate them as equals so there is some value in Belgium for me.
11 hours ago, johny88 said:interesting stat for France, their last 6 shots on goal were all goals, 6 out of 6.
french media are saying how it shows that France is incredibly efficient, but you can look at it totally the opposite way, in their last 3 games they had only 6 shots on goal and a little bit of luck made them score all of them.
i personally wasnt impressed by France, it feels like they lack harmony and fluidity as a whole as a team as a group.
2I find this statistic pretty alarming, it means that the French have been very lucky to get this far and they have been overperforming, I would expect the normal stats being around 60%.
So I have gone with Belgium to qualify @2 Belgium to win @3 and CS 1-1 @6.5 with Betfair -
1 hour ago, Bett said:
I've put money on a draw at half-time for Sweden vs England
1.95 @ Bet365
Both sides will be play it conservatively in the first half i feel, and not much will be happening.
0-0 or under 0.5 would be better then, it will give you odds around 2.4.
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2 hours ago, waynecoyne said:
uruguay to win in extra time is 16/1 with skybet which seems fair enough max £15
Odds are good, although we have not seen any extra time goals yet? Value is definitely on the home side. I don't see many crazy scorelines so instead of Uruguay's win I went for CS 1-0 @10 with Betfair
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The South Americans are on a run of seven straight wins in all competitions, conceding just a single goal. The other interesting fact is that in all competitions, four of the last five clashes between the two sides have ended in 0-0
1-1 being new 0-0, I have gone with CS 1-1 @7.4 with Betfair (exchange) -
Brazil vs Belgium Belgium has only scored once in the first half while Brazil has scored two of their seven goals in the first half. Expecting the same dynamics, but even more pronounced. So my bet is Both Teams to Score in Second Half @3.4 with Betfair
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With some of the key defenders missing I'm expecting to see some late challenges and questionable plays, both teams have been involved in penalties before. Outright penalty market @2.4 offers no value so I've gone with:
Sweden to score a penalty @9.0
Switzerland to score a penalty@ 8.5 with Betfair
Both teams to score a penalty @41 with Betfair -
I have found some success in betting CS 1-1 and cashing out or waiting for it to last till extra time depending on what I see. I'm going to do that for today's games. Also, I have noticed that virtually no yellows are been given in the 16th final. Maybe the referees have been instructed to do so or maybe it's the VAR. There seems to be a lot of value in cards market. Take a closer look if interested.
BRA vs MEX Under 3.5 cards @2.42 with betfair -
Uruguay vs Portugal. Expecting a tight match, it's going to be a war of wills. Uruguay has only one yellow from the previous 3 games, whereas Portugal has many. When under pressure, for example, Portugal vs Iran or Portugal at Euro 2016, they get many yellows. Also, there is quite a big chance for the game to go to extra time, this means even more time to collect yellows. EDIT: Extra time usually does not count on yellow card market. So, given this, I found two bets which offer value:
Team with the most cards Portugal @ 2.27
Portugal over 1.5 cards @1.43 -
15 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:
Columbia look too big at 3/1 even without james rodriguez who looked like he knew his tournament was over when he was substituted. I will probably leave this alone but think the odds are higher than they should be.
I agree completely, maybe some AH lines offer value. I think I've made most of my money betting against English punters, so I need to take these odds in some form or another
Also I understand that English media is pretty big on it "coming back home"? I think all the previous England games account to pretty much nothing whereas Columbia has been pressure tested and they came out alive but somewhat injured, I'm not sure who it favors more, but a weak group is usually not a blessing and resting players, hmmm, still not sure about that. Look at the previous world cup winners, how much do they rest their teams in final games? Usually they are not in no position to rest their players they need to fight and grind out the results, this is how the champions are being made.
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Uruguay vs Portugal is a really hard game to to find any kind of value, because teams are very predictable and the way they play does not vary a lot, outright markets and over under and markets have got it all right. But because of the predictability I see some value in taking some CS-s.
Uruguay v Portugal CS 1 - 1 @ 6.00 with betfair. Taking account to Portugal's 2016 World Cup progression, I see this score quite likely. Both teams are solid defensively, and making sure not to concede, while arguably having some of the the best goalscorers in the world playing against each other.This bet is pretty easy to trade in-game if I see it is not going to go my way from the beginning and one team is disintegrating before our eyes. Also it helps me to lay 0-0 which I don't believe is happening.
I think the market may have over reacted on some things, for example Portugal under 2.5 team goals being 1.03 which is 97%, meaning 3+ goals happens almost NEVER, which I quite disagree with because never is such a bold statement.
Taking account that we have VAR and great goalscorers in both teams I have gone smaller bets on CS 2-1 Uruguay @11, CS 2-1 Portugal @ 12 These are more for the testing purposes and there is no history to support these bets but I think we might see history changing
- darki and StevieDay1983
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I expect physical Senegal side to get more cards against fast and individually able Colombians. Both of the bets would have won in Senegal's previous two games. Senegal had 2 cards against Poland and 3 cards against Japan.
Senegal more cards @1.76
Senegal over 1.5 cards @1.42 -
I'm expecting FRA vs DEN all over again in England vs Belgium match.I expect to see no team effort on winning from either side. No intent on winning can still sometimes result in somebody winning, so a safer bet would be to go to yellow cards market. When people don't care about winning they don't don't care about tripping other players or acting unsportsmanlike either.
I have gone for under 2.5 yellows @ 2.37 and under 3.5 yellows @1.59 with betsafe. -
I'm expecting a Peru goal but besides these two I don't see anyone else scoring. So my bet for today is France vs Peru anytime goalscorer Paolo Guerrero @5.0 and Christian Cueva (who is on penalties too) @ 5.5 with betfair. Also I'm not sure Peru should be 7.0 against VAR enhanced France maybe I will take a look at some AH lines.
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Egypt at 4.25 with Unibet, I think it is such a perfect spot to extract some value. I've been looking for set-ups like this. Russia had a good game against a weak side and is now a big favourite to win. Egypt is much better side, played maturely even without Salah and last but not least It's a must win or they will be sent to packing.
Whatever the "real" odds might actually be I think they are much higher than current suggested 23.5% for Egypt to win. In my eyes Egypt are the favorites and I'm taking it all day. AH 0,25, 0.5 lines or just X2 should offer some value too if you are averse to variation or profits
- StevieDay1983 and KikoCy
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I went with CS England 1-0 (@5.5) and 2-0 (@6.5) with Betfair as it gives me somewhat better odds than England to win to nil or under 2.5. It is more of a fun bet based purely on a desired outcome because I have no idea how strong England really is but it's a must win for them if they want top the group, Southgate seems straightforward guy and I'm seeing them taking the points.
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If anyone is interested in World Cup winner and group stage simulation models there is a good paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.03208.pdf (from page 20). Statistical models have been wildly successful before (Microsoft's model predicting Portugal win and unbeaten record two years ago for example) It has Spain winning at 17.8% (5.6) over 100k simulations. Betfair has it around 13% (7.40). There are more value to be had on who is reaching the group stages and correct finishing positions of a given group.
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On 02/03/2018 at 10:22 PM, Sir Puntalot said:
How the hell England can only be 16/1 is beyond me. It's my country and I love it, but we may as well be 50/1 or more!
The future could be different for England, but these players just simply aren't world class at the moment. France look very tasty at present.Do you have any idea how to monetize that difference? I'm always betting against England after group stages, but do you think they could mess up even before?
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3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
I think this shows the strength of the German team and the balls of Löw. In the end I think the team which is mentally strongest will win. That's why I don't rate teams like Brazil and Belgium, today's football is really different than it was 15 years ago.
Also, I thought it could be a form of decimation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army) and disciplining other would-be-stars. Ability wise I'm not so familiar with German team, but my bet is he would be in any other team competing in WC. -
11 hours ago, allyhibs said:
I think there's money to be made betting against Argentina, they're far too short at 10.00. Scraped through qualification after being the lowest scorers out of the top 6 teams, recently hammered by Spain. Even Messi can't carry this team on his own.
Thanks, I'm looking for big teams to lay. Argentina, I think, is one of them. Others are England and Brazil, there's lot of money being made on them, always over-rated never supsiring with good performances. But not sure if I will start betting against them in group stages, need to see at elast one game before.
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I will go with Real Madrid win as in previous years, odds are ok-ish. Reasoning being that Liverpool are not the best travellers and Real Madrid is really good in these winner takes all matches. Odds should rise even more, last year against Juventus Madrid was 2.60 I don't think that Liverpool has a realistic chance to win like Juve had last time. Only red cards, own goals and stuff like that can ruin the day for Madrid. Klopp will more often than not fail against big teams and coaches playing away (not home).
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4 hours ago, SportsDataPunter said:
I suggest looking at Roma v Genoa
Genoa's away record: 14/16 games (88%) were Under 2.5 goals (Odds around 2.10)
Genoa's away record: 14/16 games (88%) at least one team didn't score a goal. (No Goal @ 1.75)
H2H: Roma won their last 10 games at home against Genoa. (Odds around 1.35)
Correct Score: 1-0 or 2-0 worth a shot
Went with your Lazio bet and first half Roma win 1-0 and 2-0, solid pics and solid data behind! Made a good profit.
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Southampton vs Chelsea I see value on draw. Southamptons home form against top 4 -11 clubs is 1W 3D 2L. Chelsea being out of form lately although facing tough opponents has not shown anything spectacular. Southampton desperately needs points to avoid relegation. Southampton vs Chelsea X @ 3.75 with betsafe
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Swanseas last 5 home games WWWWL, Evertons last 5 away games WLLLL. I'm going to go with Swansea here. Everton has only won twice away this season. So I will go heavy on Swansea win, odds look good to me. Swansea to win @ 2.54 with bet365.
2020 European Championship Group F Predictions
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by markus808
Long time no see my friends. Having great success lately with my EC picks, lots of value everywhere. From now on I'll be sharing my picks here.
Hungary vs Portugal
This is a must win, must not lose game for both. These more often than not tend to be cagey affairs and likely draws. But odds suggest Portugal to win around 70% of the times? Let's look at some stats. Last time at Euro 2016 Portugal had 3 draws at group stage, one with Hungary. If we are only looking at 2021 matches for Portugal and Hungary and excluding games against microstates like Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino. Portugal has won 2 and drawn 2, and Hungary has won 1 and drawn 2. So odds are definitely off and by a lot. Both teams are in good form, and only one loss between them in their last 10 games.
I'm going for a draw @ 4.7 with Unibet
Germany vs France
I know Germany is Germany and they play on their home soil, but they are big underdogs when you look at their form. Going for straight France win is a bit too much for me, even @ 2.7, because draws happen at group stages more often than odds suggest, and both teams are more than capable to score the equalizer, when they need to. Odds for draw are correct, and for me there is no value there. I think the 1x2 lines will change a little after we know Hungary vs Portugal results, so you may want to wait or bet before the result instead.
France AH +0 (draw no bet) @ 1.83 with Unibet is something I'm going to place a big and relatively risk free bet on.
Since I feel like I might be missing some value here I'm considering making another bet on 1x @ 1.44 with Unibet
I would usually back it up with correct score draw instead, but I have no idea, what would the most likely draw be, so staying away from CS market.
Good luck!