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Machine

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    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    Hey monkey - I've never claimed to consistently value bet anything and if I decide to publish my betting methods on this forum it will certainly not be aimed at proving a point to you, as after I push 'Post quick reply' under this message field I'm not wasting another second on reading your posts and your pointless stabs at a topic you do not fully understand. I hope we can get this post back on track and learn how to bet profitably with ELO ratings.
    :zzz thats it keep your holy grail under wraps just talk about it but cant prove it all hot air

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    You don’t need to know all possible outcomes to have a value bet. In sport you don’t know the true probability' date= but estimate it using some system that you have developed and then compare to the price on offer.

    On a single bet, the result won’t matter as you had value in the bet. The same way as tossing a coin, if somebody offered you 4/1 on heads and it came down tails, you still took a value bet.

    The big question is how do you know if your system estimates the outcome accurately enough. This can be done through looking at a large sample size and test if you system significantly performers better than expected. The size of the sample will depend on the odds and how much value you are trying to measure, but there are statistical tools to work this out.

    If you don’t monitor your results over a long period of time you’ll never know if your system actual works.

    As far as I can work out, what is being proposed here is exactly the same. It ranks the team then applies a regression to estimate the probability of a win and then see if you get value.

    Finally, looking for value is not the same as thinking something will win. For a basic example, rolling a dice and somebody says you can either have the numbers 1 to 5 at 1/20 or number 6 at 15/1. The value is betting on number 6, whereas you expect the result of the roll dice to be a number 1 to 5.

    SIGH :eyes

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    Could you explain it to us then?
    Of course Value can only be correctly obtained when the true percentage of all possible outcomes is known, then and only then can you say that the %age payout is greater or less than than the true percentage. Even then it is possible to go into negative equity due to not having sufficient funds. Now Lardino instead of repeating yourself expose to the world how you consistently value bet in sports betting, or may I suggest its you who do not understand the concept of value in sports betting.

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    It seems impossible to get you to understand what value betting is, so I suggest you take your own advice and focus on the ELO ratings.
    I must know what value betting in sport is because for the last 22 years when I have ask value bettors what it is and how its done I keep getting the same answers. rolling dice :rollin flipping coins :rollin dealing cards :rollin If I backed the bet 100 times Id win (thats a classic):rollin In the long run (how long is this long run?):rollin I think the fav will win but Im looking for a value bet in the race (another classic):rollin Then it usualy ends up "you dont understand value" :ok I fully understand what value is. My problem is with people who say they're value bettors or talk about it yet cannot tell me how they do it consistently At least with ELO's ratings he can say team x has a higher rating than team y and then decide whether he wants to back it. Rather than team x should win but Im backing team y because I have produced a mythical figure. :eek

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    I can make 500 threads posting formulas and theories but if it does not end up in a betting system or a betting strategy with set rules then it's a pointless mathematical wank in my opinion. As someone asked earlier in this thread - what is the point of this thread?
    But you cant put up one thread telling people how to "value" bet , so whats the point in you posting? Some might find his thread interesting,some might want to learn about rating systems.(been there done it, but still find it interesting) To come on and call it mathematical wank is pathetic. Wouldn't your time be better spent writing "Lardonio's How I value bet consistently" thread

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    This is where Linear Regression, the next piece of the puzzle goes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis Again this is not 'Bookie Bashing' rhetoric, but sound and established maths. A linear regression line has an equation of the form Y = a + bX, where X is the explanatory variable and Y is the dependent variable. The slope of the line is b, and a is the intercept (the value of y when x = 0). From analysis of 12,342 results we get: Home win: Slope = 8.28, Intercept = 31.92 Away win: Slope = -5.65, Intercept = 34.76 Draw: Slope = -2.63, Intercept = 33.31 X = Rating difference Y = Predicted outcome %
    What sort of R² results are you getting for H/D/A

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    You dont know the wether it was a value bet after a single bet, the actual outcome isnt important.
    :eyes :wall Then you don't know whether it is value or not so how can you say it is. Doesn't that register. It is a single bet never to be repeated (capiche), beforehand you didn't know its true chance of winning and you only guessed it. If it wins you can pretend you know about 'value' if it loses you throw out the old "if I did the same bet 100 times" routine. Either way you are wrong. At least with a coin you can say it has a 50% chance. Anyway enough of this, this is ELO's thread about elo ratings not the 'mythical value bet'

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) the thread went off track when Lardinho said the only way was value betting , so I asked for this mystical system which everyone seems to know. But alas yet again I do not get the answer to my quest of someone who can actualy show me this brilliant system rather than just say 'value betting the way to go' ;)

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    How can you say: no flipping coin analogies etc? Betting on sports is based on the same theory, as betting on a coin flip or in a casino. The difference is when flipping a coin you know the actual probabilities. When sports betting you are trying to estimate the probabilities, to find value in the odds. Wether you do it by crunching numbers or a qualitative analisys is not important, it is basicly the same thing.
    SIGH :eyes (thats why there are so many losers) Betting on coin flips etc you know the probabilities..... Sports betting you dont its all a guess how people estimate that guess differs, whether you do it by maths,intuition or ouija board but its still a guess. Also you only know whether it is value or not after the event in sports betting, as it is a 1 off event. Every single sports bet is an independent event so you cannot say "in the long run". Prove me wrong and show me, its as simple as that Lardinho I am not being negative, any man jack can come on here and spout about value as if you just pick it off a tree. The problem that I have with people like that is they can never tell everone how easily they find it.(maybe because they cant or am I just being negative):ok

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    The only way to establish that what you're doing - whether it be ratings' date=' analyzing form and injury news, consulting psychics, whatever - produces value is, unfortunately, by looking at your betting history summary (for, let's say, 1000 bets) and see whether you are making money or not.[/quote'] but what if those 1000 bets were a profitable statistical blip and your next 1000 bets you lost a shed load of cash is that still value? The point Im making is 'value' is bandied about like confetti on message boards by all and sundry and yet not one person can say what it is. One year you make a load of cash then crow like a rooster 'im a value punter' The next year doing exactly the same you lose a load of cash, thats when the old "well in the long run " statement comes out. No one will ever no because you never know when your 'value bets' are going to hit such a losing run that you cant afford to bet them any more and they will. The moral is be gratefull for your winnings but never think you have mastered 'value'

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    rating system is not necessarily about complexity and professor-level math, it's about using the information available in a way that consistenly produces an alternative and profitable way of approaching betting based on value.
    And how would this 'value' be found ? please no: flipping coin,dealing cards rolling dice and "in the long run" analogy's. (I've always wondered how long 'in the long run' actually is --a day--a year --a lifetime) were talking sports betting here. :ok

    A.I. horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: A.I. horses well thats it for the month donc 14.40 E2 midnight rider donc 16.55 RP mutanaker ling 17.55 E2 kipchack............won 13/8 bog ham 20.40 E2 jemima nicholas OVERALL Start Bank 80.00 Bets 159 wins 56 NR 3 SR 35.22% Av win odds 2.83 Current Bank 76.63 Profit -3.37 R.O.I -4.21% Yield -0.21% but if you look back at an earlier thread

    After I had put the selections up today I realised the NH races had not been filtered out for yesterday and today (human error on my part) of which all of them lost bar 1 which was a non runner, costing the bank 50pts. :@ As the program is specifically targeted at flat racing as from tomorrow all NH selections will be filtered out and only flat selections will be put up.
    I lost 50pts as the prog did not filter out the nh races at the time, so in reality it would have meant 46.63 pts profit over the month a 58.28% ROI . Thanks to the couple of pl'rs who took the time to add input to the thread Im off now to have a tinker with the prog and see what comes up. :ok THREAD CLOSED

    A.I. horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: A.I. horses 4 for today so at worst I could finish -29.62pts down on the month :eyes donc 14.40 midnight rider 5/4 bfred donc 16.55 mutanaker 5/2 sj ling 17.55 kipchack 6/4 vc ham 20.40 jemima nicholas 11/10 sj all 10pts BOG. :hope

    spread betting distances

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: spread betting distances another poor day 

    date	meet	pred	low	high	bet	result	p/l
30/7/10	good	11.05	9.80	10.80	BUY	6.70	-4.10
30/7/10	thirsk	9.79	9.00	10.00	no bet	4.95	0.00
30/7/10	bath	12.4	12.50	14.00	SELL	9.95	2.55
30/7/10	newm(j)	9.58	9.00	10.00	no bet	8.35	0.00
30/7/10	hayd	10.33	11.40	12.40	SELL	10.50	0.90

    A.I. horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: A.I. horses good 14.10 duncan 6/5 b365 ham 15.00 sheila toss 7/4 b365 good 16.00 librano 5/4 b365..............won good 17.15 jaqueline quest 11/8 b365 bath 18.05 grand zafeen 5/4 b365 hayd 18.45 lexis hero 11/10 b365 newm 19.00 peter martins 6/4 corals......won 2/1 BOG newm 20.05 araday evens b365 OVERALL Start Bank 80.00 Bets 155 wins 55 NR 3 SR 35.48% Av win odds 2.84 Current Bank 90.38 Profit 10.38 R.O.I 12.98% Yield 0.67%

    A.I. horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: A.I. horses 8 for today good 14.10 duncan 6/5 b365 ham 15.00 sheila toss 7/4 b365 good 16.00 librano 5/4 b365 good 17.15 jaqueline quest 11/8 b365 bath 18.05 grand zafeen 5/4 b365 hayd 18.45 lexis hero 11/10 b365 newm 19.00 peter martins 6/4 corals newm 20.05 araday evens b365 :hope

    spread betting distances

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: spread betting distances well and truly shafted today loss of 19.2 pts :( 

    date	meet	pred	low	high	bet	result	p/l
29/7/10	nott	10.28	12.00	13.50	SELL	19.75	-7.75
29/7/10	good	11.18	10.00	11.00	BUY	5.95	-5.05
29/7/10	epsom	10.42	9.00	10.00	BUY	8.35	-1.65
29/7/10	muss	10.91	9.80	10.80	BUY	6.05	-4.75

    :sad :sad :sad :sad

    spread betting distances

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: spread betting distances bad day already @ nott and looking like goodwoods going the same way :sad heres todays full spreads 

    date	meet	pred	low	high	bet	result	p/l
29/7/10	nott	10.28	12.00	13.50	SELL	 	 
29/7/10	good	11.18	10.00	11.00	BUY		
29/7/10	epsom	10.42	9.00	10.00	BUY		
29/7/10	muss	10.91	9.80	10.80	BUY

    A.I. horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: A.I. horses 3 winners for a profitable day good 14.45 king taurus 5/2 wh............won @ 11/4 BOG red 17.30 minturno 2/1 wh............lost red 18.05 clerical 11/8 bfred........won leic 18.10 grandmas dream 15/8 pp....lost sand 18.20 lang shining 11/10 b365.......lost sand 18.55 star of dance 11/10 pp........lost sand 20.35 tuscan gold 11/10 wh..........won OVERALL Start Bank 80.00 Bets 147 wins 53 NR 3 SR 36.05% Av win odds 2.85 Current Bank 117.88 Profit 37.88 R.O.I 47.35% Yield 2.58%

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