Machine
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Posts posted by Machine
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
How longs "in the long run" ?a selection must have value to be profitable in the long run :) -
Re: Progressive staking
LOG(1000)/-LOG(1-.50) longest expected losing run = (9.96) rounded 10I never said i wanted to simulate my belief! I SAID SIMULATE 1000 BETS WITH 50% CHANGE OF SUCCESS! GOT IT? -
Re: Sure fire way of cash? its 3^14
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Re: Pick 1 winner at every meeting system I dont understand what your doing :lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol Ive been betting longer than you've been alive. Every year during school/college breaks you get the same old same old how they've discovered this wonderful way of betting oh dear oh dear . Its easy on paper try with real money :lol
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Re: Pick 1 winner at every meeting system I hope its not one of these tipsters
92.84% The Favourite -33.96 92.30% The Guardian -37.85 92.16% Telegraph Marlborough -45.36 91.09% Daily Mail Robin Goodfellow -106.75 90.80% The Times Rob Wright -4.09 90.76% Postdata -31.31 89.49% The Express Computerman -50.17 89.04% The Sun Templegate -8.95 88.08% Daily Mirror Newsboy -37.46 87.77% Rp Ratings -85.53 87.47% The Star Peter Thickett -137.04 84.42% Top Course Trainer -49.36
They cant even break even so increasing stakes = :sad But best of luck anyway
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
Agreed :ok But the idea of NN is that it becomes dynamic once the foundations have been built and will change the algorithm as and when the new data is input, surely this must be better than a static algorithm This is what Im currently trying to build myself , but as programming is only a hobby the end product could be some time off, but Ill get there eventually I hope.(it may be a waste of time but you never know until you try). :hopeNevertheless, as educated ppl, we'd rather lose intelligently than to win ignorantly. -
Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
ELO is just a gloryfied league table in effect, all be it a more accurate view of how teams performances are due to the weighting nature of the ratings. It would be interesting if you could run say 3 years ELO ratings through a neural net algorithm incorporating an odds algorithm to find the optimum weighting and then test on unused data. Alas that is way above my programming skills.:(the nature of "strength" can be non-transitive in the sense that different teams have their own unique "Achilles Heel", so if A beats B, it only means that A has exploited B's weakness. When B beats C, B also may have exploited C's weakness. But this does not necessarily mean that A will exploit C's weakness as well. i think this is what ratings fail to accomplish. -
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) Sorry about the slow reply Datapunter but internet has been on and off all weekend (damn NTL/Virgin)
its a long time since I tried ELO ratings,Im using RPI at the moment(similar idea to ELO) I have never tried incorporating the odds directly into the ELO model, but I did once plot an odds v ratings scenario from the Elo ratings. Used the outcome on unused data and a live test which was profitable but nothing to shout about most probably just variance.as a side question, is it possible to incorporate the odds in the ELO rating and by doing so not predict the relative strenght but rather try to predict the chance of a team performing better than what their odds would indicate ? Probably neccesary to include some other statistics that just the final result to get something accurate enough to be usefull. -
Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
I'd rather say your example is irrellevant to most people. What you are describing is not value betting' date=' as can be clearly seen by the numbers, and it would take a very inexperienced gambler to expect value after such a bad analysis.[/quote'] Like Ive said before you show me the proof instead of blowing hot air then I will take you seriously. At least I am showing why simply betting above a percentage of wins will not work in practice. Please show me how the numbers are wrong and prove your point, (which I doubt you can). I will discus anything with anybody as long as they talk reasonable sense but the garbage I have got back from you is not even worth my typing time. I do not suffer fools so I will say again Either PUT UP OR SHUT UP. :ok -
Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) PS Start involving kelly and you'll lose a damn sight more :( If your are in the "in the long run" camp; years 2005 to 2009 show similar negative results. So 9 years is quite a long run for a trial I would imagine. :ok sits back and waits for the " Heresy ";" He's a witch "," burn him "," Van Der Wheil lives "; value punters onslaught ;)
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
You are not getting it are you You are not backing at 1.5 You are falsely presuming that the data that you put into your model for the X axis @ 100 and Y axis @ 50% are all above evens,therefore backing at 2.1 will give you a value bet if you bet above it. THEY ARE NOT. Lets simplify it. The league is a sort of ratings table agreed. The home team win rating in this table has never fallen below 41% or 2.44 agreed so by your reckoning if we back anything above its chance of winning we have value agreed So we will only back at 2.5 + giving an edge Now lets see what happens:if you predict something that is a 50% chance why would anyone back it at 1.5 ?year Back+ HW% edge edge% 2001 2.50+ 2.15 1.16 16% 2002 2.50+ 2.13 1.17 17% 2003 2.50+ 2.37 1.06 6% 2004 2.50+ 2.21 1.13 13%
games games Hwin eligible bet profit year tested won % games return loss 2001 2035 945 46.44% 450 388.9 -61.1 2002 1688 791 46.86% 397 362 -35 2003 2108 891 42.27% 420 357.21 -62.79 2004 1753 794 45.29% 410 368.92 -41.08
Shock horror whats happened, all negative , it cant be its a "value" bet your backing at odds higher than its chance of winning. :loon The same principle will apply to an Elo model. ;)
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) Becauase the variables on which you have taken you %ages of wins for the model can be negative ie you can have 50 winners @ 1.5 and 50 losers @ 2.1 = 50% probability of a win so you back all the ones @ 2.1+ which are rated @ 100 and voila big loss Boom value theory out the window . Your ELO model only shows how many won or lost not at what price they won or lost @
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Re: Correct score trebles Heres the method
paper req is the r.f.o using Ladbrokes odds note all league games where the home team is 4/7 or shorter then turn to the forcasted odds page and note any of these games where the home team has a supremacy figure of 1 or higher then turn to the form figures the home team must also have a better form rating if the same or lower eliminate that game next using the last 6 form figs add the home teams wins to the away teams losses and the away teams wins to the home teams losses this gives you another figure next go to the index leagues and note the diff between the 2 teams again, the home team should have an advantage again lastly go to this seasons league tables on the right hand side you get the goal diff the home team must have the adv again a +22 and a -10 would be +32 a +10 and a +2 would be a +8 a -10 and a - 22 would be +12 for the home team after all this you may have more than 3 games you take the 3 you think aRE THE BEST ON THE FIGURES YOU HAVE the single is the team with the best odds of the 3 any probs i,ll try to explain to you.....good luck any game where the home teams figure for any of the above is equal or worse than the away team that game is scrubbed if at any time you dont get 3 games with a 1 or bettersupremacy figure go to 0.9 and so on -
Re: Correct score trebles Found it HERE
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Re: Correct score trebles Since joining the board a few months ago Ive tried to read up as much as I can on here I seem to remember reading in the systems and strategy archive of someone named Jack having a successful go at it using ratings from some sports paper. Maybe it could be worth your while looking in there or doing a search in all the archives. good luck :ok
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) Lets try and answer your questions anyway
As ELO has stated this is a home draw away model and has 3 differing models for home dray away then it is natural to presume that he has plotted his x axis as difference in ratings against y axis %age of home wins and like wise for draw and away.i meant that a difference in rating of 100 means.... what? how did you get the probabilty from this?
See above, 50% was an example, but a 100 rating will always have the same Px if the above model is used.there is no golden rule that says "all 100 rating diffs will have probability equal to 50%".
totaly irrelevent as he is using H/D/Aeg if you ELO goals scored team A has a rating of 2.30 and B 0.70, you can use this info to play the spreads rather than saying team A has a rating of 2507 and B 1589. -
Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) You asking me the question or ELO If its me I suggest you re read my answer to SS
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) Muppet is correct That only gives you the probability of rating a beating rating b simply converting that that probability into odds does not work. Lets say a ratings difference of 100 gives him a probability of 50% = 2.00 If you look at all the variables which make up the model with a difference of 100 you may find that of that 50% ---- 50% under 2.00 are winners and 50% over 2 are losers Therefore simply backing above 2.00 because you think you have "value" is in effect working the opposite way and taking you into negative equity , thats when they fall into the "in the long run" mode and keep backing the losers through the false belief they are getting value
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Re: Predict the Premier League 2010/2011 1. man u 2. chelsea 3. arsenal 4. spurs 5. liverpool 6. man city 7. everton 8. villa 9. birmingham 10. blackburn 11. sunderland 12. newcastle 13. wigan 14. Bolton 15.west ham 16. west brom 17. stoke 18. fulham 19. wolves 20. Blackpool Champ Ipswich Div 1 Huddersfield div 2 rotherham
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
When I say virgin data I mean data that has not been used in your predictive model. I can see that your falling into the trap of assuming that if your models predictive price has a +edge against the bookies odds all you have to do is back at that price or higher and you will make a profit (if only it was so easy)Not quite sure what you mean by testing against virgin data. Do you have a specific way this can be done with ELO algorithms in mind or do you mean it is a good idea to save some of your training data for testing? -
Re: 12X verses Correct Scores MHW Go HERE and you can download 16 years worth of results into excel and test them at your leisure :ok
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Re: 12X verses Correct Scores
the joint combined odds of the scores are 2.41 using the £6 if dutched 0-1 8.50..£1.70 0-2 13.....£1.11 1-2 9.50..£1.52 0-3 26.....0.56p 1-3 21.....0.69p 2-3 34.....0.42p this would give you a return of approx £14.45 any result compared to the £15 backing the win only £6 @ 2.5 leaving the straight bet the obvious winner. Placing £1 on each score gives you an overall loss on the first 3 results compared to the straight win but a better bang for your buck on the last 3 so as Clint Eastwood says "do ya feel lucky". If you back the scores you are in effect backing against the bookie and yourself because if one score wins the others must lose negating the point of backing at the higher score odds at the end of the day its your decision good luck :okThanks Lardonio. To give a bit more detail. I will be concentrating on games where I think that the away team may have a slight edge. This should produce better prices on the correct scores. I will always use the same six correct scores as quoted. For example on tonights list: Carlisle v Huddersfield With Hills at the moment Huddersfield are quoted at 2.50. The Correct Score prices are: 0-1 8.50 0-2 13 1-2 9.50 0-3 26 1-3 21 2-3 34 Clearly the Correct Score option will work out better on the higher scores. The 0-3 for Bristol City v Millwall on Saturday was a good example but I don't know what the exact prices were. Any thoughts on the two routes and any possible variations would be welcome. Thanks. -
Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
If you are using market price vs the model's predicted price I would take a step back and have a rethink before you consider placing any money whatsoever. Run your model thhrough virgin data first and you will see why.When my calculations are done I am left with a figure that tells me my edge over the market price vs the model's predicted price.
How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) so what your saying is "" in the long run"" is infinitesimal and during this time depends on how lucky you are. So were not talking value were talking luck.