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Machine

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    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs For example you have 10 results (known values) all of which are rated x 5 are winners @ 1/2 and 5 losers @ 2/1 when plotted on a linear regression chart it will only show that rating X has a 50% strike rate. People then assume that simply backing teams rated X at over evens will win them money,even though the known values which have created X's winning part of 50% rating are below evens, so by backing only above evens moves you into the negative side of the known values which are in effect losers.

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    Originally Posted by protop Be wary with this type of analysis. I have a database of over 7500 games, each given a rating. Regression analysis for the home teams show a best fit line of 0.9785, for the draws 0.9054 and for the ways 0.9432. This ignores any ratings where there are less than 10 games with such ratings. At this stage I have not optimised the ratings via the formula y = 1.1666x -0.0546 (homes) or for the Aways and draws. If you were to then take any of the ratings and then assume that by backing the so called value bets it would give you an edge, it would not. In fact doing the exact opposite would give you an edge, it would appear from this, that bookmakers odds contain information that your ratings don’t and if your rating appears to be great value it probably isn’t.. I am sure other punters that have created their own ratings have similar findings.
    Yes agreed protop' date=' that's what I found after 1000's of rows of data - infact most of the bets that look terrible value end up winning most of the time. Unfortunately though just not enough too make them profitable.[/quote'] Both correct Its called extrapolation (when you calculate a value outside the range of the known values) or value betting as some like to call it. ie rating x = 50% strike rate Simply by thinking if you back everything rated X @ over evens you will win (value punters analogy :eyes ) You would be wrong You will only win if the range of the known values which make up rating X's winning strike rate are themselves over the 50% (even money) known value. If not you will lose money (as the2 quotes above confirm)

    Computer software advise!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Computer software advise! If you mean a program that selects your horse for you. In my opinion Ive never heard of a good one.( but I may be wrong) A lot of them are expensive promise winners but very few if any deliver, so I would keep my money in my pocket if I were you. But if you want a program to place bets for you there are plenty out there and some good free ones, Geeks toy is ok and free.

    Chi Square & Other Tests of Statistical Significance

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Chi Square & Other Tests of Statistical Significance say you have 100 bets with 60 winners and 40 losers you now have to estimate the bookies expected winners and losers. first find your average odds (say 2.00) then find your average overound (say 10%) multiply ave odds & ave overound (2.00 * 1.10 = 2.20) change above to a %age (1/2.2 = 0.45 ) multiply total bets by above result 100 * 0.45 = 45 winners therefore 55 losers now you have your factors to put in CHITEST in excell A1= 60 B1= 45 A2= 40 B2= 55 this should give you =CHITEST(A1:A2,B1:B2) result should be 0.002569 or 0.25% which equates to .25% luck or 99.75 good judgement :dude Dont bother with it myself but there you go. :ok

    Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Unlucky again fleet. :( So close but no cigar. Have give up on ratings and am trying the totally random approach (cant be any worse than my ratings have been doing). Wrote a team generator programme to pick 3 teams at random each week and back in a patent :lol Keeps the interest going while watching soccer saturday and gives me a betting slip to rip up at 5.50 :eek (tho I did get one winner this week,still a loss tho :( )

    Monkeys Hadron Collider

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    So the 9 billion dollar Hadron Collider didnt work due to the universe 'rippling back through time' to stop man from discovering the Higgs particle. Hmmm bit of a lame excuse for blowing 9 billion if you ask me.(the 'cleaner pulled the plug out to plug in the hoover' would have been more believable) So ive decided to build my own for less than 2 boxes of stella (2 for £15 Asda). I'll be using a Mersenne Twister as my core generator which produces 54bit precision and has a period of 2^19937-1. Instead of firing particles I will be using the 92 teams of the football league to find the Higgs particle cubed better known as the 'patent' or 'Gods Treble' . Heres hoping the future ripples back to stop these being negative. 1 pt patent all prices b365 Burnley 1.9 Crystal Palace 3.3 Bury 1.9 7pts total

    monkeys HOME football ratings

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: monkeys HOME football ratings Thanks for the input YFF The odds on Rochdale were 2.15 so therefore "value" according to your ratings. I dont really want to go down the linear regression of rating systems to find "value" discussion again as I find it tedious repeating the same things over again that has been discussed in several other threads because it simply does not work. (been there done it with ELO ratings,RPI rankings,non linear using solver in excel,AHP etc etc). If it was so easy I would have been rich over 15yrs ago. My hobby is trying to write programmes (not very good ones but I keep trying) and I find writing rating programmes helps sharpen my programming skills and by having a few quid on the output keeps me interested.(win or lose is irrelevant really). I then compare the output to the other rating systems I have done ELO etc to find out which is faring the best of a bad bunch. It doesn't take long to realise that all rating systems generally spew out the same stuff because they all input more or less the same variables. Fleet Lardy doesnt bother me, infact I find his attempt at sarcasm amusing in a sad sort of way ;)

    monkeys HOME football ratings

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: monkeys HOME football ratings

    At least you are succeeding in not finding value ;)
    TA DA Value man raises his head. Great thread of yours Lardy in the invisible section Excellent tutorial on how you find value mixed with a great staking plan. And all those value winners sheeesh. You would be my hero if you wern't such a nob ;)

    Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II I was making my mid week selections as usual (clutching a rabbits foot stuffed with 4 leaf clovers topped of with white gypsies heather,in my lucky red hat and spinning a prayer wheel whilst trying to draw a pentangle with the blood of a freshly sacrificed cockerel) when I realised they had already kicked off :eyes. If Its any consolation mine would have been down as well :(

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