Machine
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Posts posted by Machine
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Re: Kev's Distance Betting Did a few posts on spreadbetting the distances but no interest so stopped. I get 11.97 for today at Bath 10L to 13.5L inclusive 15/8 @ VCBet G'luck :ok
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II :lol at Scots in with amateurs never had them in my ratings gave Celtic and Rangers every week not far off from your top 3 with mine 2 out of 3 top rated old 2 out of 3 with new Cardiff looks like the one to be on :lol
Shouldn't this be 39 or have I missed somethingThis stake will be 1.5pt x 26 bets = 26pts. -
Re: monkeys football ratings would it be these by any chance ;) Coventry Cardiff QPR AFC W'bledon Gateshead Wycombe Burnley Reading using my old ratings Coventry Cardiff QPR would all be 90>100
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Re: monkeys football ratings
The actual Idea was top 10% ish because I was expecting at least 2 or 3 in the 90's maybe dropping down to the 80's now and again , but after comparing the ratings with a method I used last season looks like these ratings will be in a tighter ratings band for some reason :\ So looks like Ill have to drop in blocks of 10s until I get some bets.:(PS You should stick to your rules & have no bet. :tongue2 -
Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Hope you've got it automated :eek G'luck :ok
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Re: monkeys football ratings
Now Now Datapunter nowhere have I mentioned I was looking for "value" by finding winners, dont try and put words in my mouth so to speak. ;)I suppose if both mainly look at recent form then they would throw up similar selections. So then, looking for some value by finding winners, dear o dear o dear ;) Good luck :ok
It is a rating system pure and simple , I have given the ratings a mathematical boundry in which to perform,If it does not perform within them boundaries it will be classed as a fail simple as. Lardy If you wish I could pull from the sky the mythical £1000 starting bank which everyone seems to have just lying around,talk about value, have no idea about money management losing runs etc then when things turn to crap stop the thread, but then it would just be like the 90% of the other threads.Let's hope there's no value in the selections or the monkey will go ape :nana -
Re: monkeys football ratings At least mine will be there to see Cant see the Lardino Bullshitter imaginary "Value" thread anywhere :rollin
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) Will you be releasing your ELO ratings into the wild so to speak,like Fleet and myself. If all 3 rating systems are alike when compared then it will save other people from running down the same route twice.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions Well agree to differ then ;)
By backing both I am getting the one which is the correct price for its rating by backing the 8/11 only you are hoping its the correct price for its rating, if they both win at their respective %ages no one has gained or lost.Good luck dutching a 1/3 & an 8/11 shot; £10 example: 1.33 stake £5.68 1.75 stake £4.32 Returned if either selection wins: £7.56 So, unless they both win, you have lost money. I understand your theory of damage limitation in the event of only 1 of the 2 winning, but if they both win, you might as well have lumped it all on the bigger price. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions
You obviously cannot get what Im saying. Your ratings are made up of a multitude of variables,some positive some negative and collectively they make up the whole rating.(if they were all positive every rating would be 100%). Now if the 8/11 falls into the negative part of the the whole rating collective then no matter how many times you back it is doomed to failure and thats a fact (as rafa would say). The same also goes for the 1/3. You can call it better "value",you can tie it to a tree and call it Toby if you want. But if it is from the negative side of the ratings make up it will still be the wrong bet to make. If your ratings give you 2 teams you should back them both not just the higher price else it is you who do not believe the accuracy of your rating. :okAh but if that was the case' date=' then what you would be saying is that your ratings aren't as accurate as you thought they were, as the 8/11 shots kept losing [b']despite their ratings. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions People get giddy when they see bigger prices I suppose. Say your ratings came from these variables :- 1/3w , 1/3w,1/3w, 1/3w,8/11L 8/11L 8/11L 8/11L Would you still back the 8/11 shot.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions I answered your question before, If I believed in my ratings then I would back both as that is what my ratings tell me to do. Dont forget your ratings only give you the most probable winner, not the price at which they should be backed at As the "false value" is unknown dutching the pair (in this case) is the obvious answer, equalizing the risk over both prices.
If I had odds of 1/3 and 8/11 and trusted my ratings Id back both and dutch the stake as I only back singles. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions Thats the six million dollar question. I once read an article by a professor of economics called Leighton Vaughan Williams in it he states
Thus going off that hypothesis 8/11 would not be the correct play, a case of false "value" so to speak. I can see the thinking behind going for the 8/11 purely on a return basis pro rata but that may not always be the best move to make. Which road to take is the hardest decision.The assumption, or at least the hypothesis, must be that the accuracy of the betting markets is created out of the information and intuition of many people rather than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and intuition they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon them. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most are likely to bet the most. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions Yes did notice that the top ratings were quite close, as are the bottom ones. As for the lower price ones, Im not against short odds on as I look at it if you can get at least 10% on your bet your doing better than the 1.5% at the bank. As the match data increases and things stabilise a little more Ill be taking the top 20% ( 80>100) as my home picks. Carlisle currently 2.15 @ betfred :clap If I had odds of 1/3 and 8/11 and trusted my ratings Id back both and dutch the stake as I only back singles. Odds are not an indication of how good the bet is, bookies dont give a flying fcuk what odds they give out as long as they manage their book to the overound. So if 1 of the 2 similar rated teams comes in to 1/3 it screams the bookies trying to get his overound back on track because the punters are hammering it or the opposite no one is interested in the 8/11.
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Re: Elo ratings calculations - why is home advantage 100 points When you click on add trendlines go to options and tick display equation on chart this will give you your y = mx + c equation.(x being the rating you want to check). :ok A linear trendline should best serve the type of data you have.
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Ah I get what value punting is You go on a forum tell everyone how its done throw in a few what ifs and in the long runs then tell everyone how you make a profit but never show the results pre bet. Its a bit like a van der whiel thread, where they always have the winner after the race has gone then tell them how they managed to pick it through their vast experience. Some may say a tad aftertiming,but im not that cynical.;) Anyway Ill leave you guys to chat on, Im sure youve plenty of past winners at marvelous prices to talk about. :D Ill stick with the ratings punters , a bit more substance for my liking all this "value" malarky is making me quite dizzy ;)
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) This is a lot like talking to a politician lots of answers but nothing concrete. Last question .. Will you be putting up a value football thread for this season to show us mere mortals how its done ;) :ok
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
Obvious no, as it made moneyIt is luck. Bookies tend to run books with 80-95% payback. This means that if you pick every single scoreline in a game, you will lose money no matter what. Obvious, yes?
Not if you pick enough winnersOn the same note, if you randomly pick one scoreline, you will end up losing money on the long term.It's like that octopus who "predicted" results in the World Cup. He may have shown a good profit then' date=' but I guarantee if you follow him long enough you will lose your money.[/quote'] The same can be said of a "value" punter if his estimations are wrong. The problem I have is if someone uses a rating system it can be analysed but with a value punter its smoke and mirrors,ifs and buts,in the long runs. Its all conjecture. -
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Is this value Many years ago I used another board run by a guy named Tony Quinlan(sp) He had a selection method called Tony's Hat Basically it was a random number generator that would randomly predict the scores of all the games in all english divisions. It made a profit :eek So by your definition this random number generator is capable of finding value as it must be backing correct scores at better than the bookies estimate,or is it just luck?
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
But in a casino the percentages are FIXED (as in always the same not crooked). In sports betting they are not as it is a one off event never to be repeated so you cannot say if i backed team x against team y 100 times blah blah blah would happen as this would never occur, so you are just fooling yourself believing that scenario. Since Bayes theorm was published in 1763 people have been saying the same thing as jens is "all you have to do is back at a better price than the percentage suggests" dead easy isn't it. ;) Around 98% of punters are losers so they say. When I go on any message board I always bump into the 2% of winning "value" punters,I find that truly amazing :loonlook at it this way,a casino wins by giving you shorter odds than the true odds of your bet. it could be argued that Casinos only win because they are lucky, we all know this is not the case they are betting you something will happen and give you shorter odds than its true chances.by taking the shorter odds many times you loose to the casino.thats why a casino will do everything they can to keep someone gambling as they know ,the longer you take unfavorable odds the more certain you are to loose. to win at gambling you also have to place bets at bigger odds than its true chances. -
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
Only if you have correctly guessed what the odds should be and then the teams win at precisely or better than the proportion relative to what you predict. That's some mighty good guessing ;) If ""in the long run"" is infinitesimal then it does not matter whether you "value" bet or not as you can never reach your goal.Had the odds been at 1.70 instead, representing value, the chance of profit after 10 bets jumps to 63.8% and this'll only rise the more bets you place.
Kev's Distance Betting
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Kev's Distance Betting I also get... Doncaster 11.28 8.5L to 12L inclusive 7/4 @ VCBET Epsom 10.31 9L to 12.5L inclusive 7/4 @ VCBET Bath 11.97 10L to 13.5L inclusive 15/8 @ VCBet Might as well have a couple of quid patent on them for interest now. :eyes