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Machine

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Posts posted by Machine

    Distances

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Distances Todays bet if there is one will be at Musselburgh. Program prediction is 12.10 lengths Books put their prices up around 12.30 to 12.45 ish (unfortunately I will be in the dentist chair then having a crown fitted :\ ,so hopefully I'll be home before 2.20 to post up if theres a bet) :ok

    Distances

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I have a little prog I wrote for distances for the flat turf season which Ive re-vamped for this season, so im giving it a go starting with 100pts using 10% of bank each bet never decreasing so 10 losers max then out of the game. Yesterday I thought I'd posted a bet up from my mobile but it seems I messed up somewhere as it hasnt appeared,so heres a screenshot of bet 1 for all the doubting thomases out there ;) catt.png So start bank 100 bets 1 wins 1 new bank 117.50 Todays bet is Leicester with PP exact 10.5 to 14.5 11.75pts @ 13/8 sorry its late but been pushed for time today will try get it posted about 1.00 tomorrow

    Analysing Leagues

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Analysing Leagues

    NO and NO: you are not overcomplicating and you are not taking the right approach. Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit.
    And then you go on to say
    I disagree. 1month is far too short period. Its something about 400 matches. Its too small sample. Paper trail is very time consuming and unefective. I would suggest back-testing at least 2years. But of course' date= firstly you must have an idea what to test. And, yes, some strategies impossible to backtest in principle. Then yes, papertrial, to collect some data patterns and apply it retrospectively if possible to a bigger sample.
    Rather contradictory wouldn't you say :eyes

    Betting Each Way. Yes/No? Why?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Betting Each Way. Yes/No? Why? I very rarely back a single ew I would rather dutch or split it on betfair Say I was backing a horse @ 12/1 ew in a 16 runner race @ 1/4 place I would dutch/split the 2 sets of odds. Just an example not exact science.... say I wanted a 10pt bet i would bet 2.50pts @ 12/1 for the win 7.50pts @ 3/1 for the place simply because if it does hit the frame it only has 25% of winning but a 75% chance of placing so I want most of my money on the place part as that is the most likeliest outcome. But whatever you do you have to bet the way you feel comfortable with :ok

    Perm Betting

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Perm Betting Its a risk averse way of betting If you are unsure of the of the percentage you should place on each bet individually for optimum returns. it is often better to dutch so that whatever bet comes in you know exactly what the profit will be as each bet pays the same. I find it better than level stakes (but thats just my opinion)

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    Nice. But your analysis missing one collumn - ROI% Sorry, for being so sceptical, but I've went through something simillar, i.e. analysing historical data from different angles and methods. It took a lot of time, a lot of hopes and false flags, but no positive results in longer run. I've also made exactly the same analysis as Monkey reccomends and backtesting with "winners" by odds range gave overal negative results. But I still looking forward for Andy's analysis, maybe I've done something wrong in my testing.
    Mulkis The first stage is to get your model replicating true events regardless of ROI if you can do this within 1-2% constantly then you have a workable model which is already reducing the books overound by approx 8-10%. If your model is poor your results will be poor. When I did a model the best I could get was + 2% which wasnt enough for me as my horseracing model was out performing it by quite a considerable amount so I ditched the football one and concentrated with my horseracing one. Andy seems to be getting his model in shape and he may see something that we haven't only time will tell . If you dont buy a ticket you cant win the raffle :ok

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    Checking this way quickly, I'm seeing that I'm moving away from the red and starting to break even. If I take more time over this, I will start getting something worth while. Andy
    Getting within break even range is a sign that your model is heading in the right direction.(starting to hit the numbers in the right proportions) One way to test is to use only 1 bookmaker as your datum odds range ( I would use the one which constantly gives the worst average odds) then running a comparison against the better odds which were available (if any) and then test on clean data to see if it moves you into that elusive profit range.

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs Hi andy Your primary aim is to replicate what actually happens with real life data then if similar/same results are achieved while testing fresh data you know you are on the right track and your predictive model is working how it should do. Q. are you using all your ratings or the product of 1 single rating for the above sample

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    OK. Lets wait for AKent results.
    The above methods shown are taught to students who are studying computer science and statistical analysis at M.I.T Americas leading statistical research facility by Prof John Guttag and Prof Eric Grimson both withover 30 years of teaching computer science. (I have taken the course myself,its free you should try it) So instead of being so negative please enlighten us on your theory as Im sure Mulkis of the punters lounge is better placed to sort out such statistical problems. I wait your expert reply :ok

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    This is back-fitting. It works perfecly as data-mining' date=' but not for betting.[/quote'] If you had spent some time reading the post properly you would have seen that it has to be tested on clean data to see if it continues to follow the trend.

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    This is a fantastic idea. I have been doing testing all day and found that you are right, regression analysis didn't give me what I was looking for and my testing left me in the red. I have 10 seasons of data, i take it I should be completely random in my selections for ratings and which to test on or should it not be kept in order? Ie season 1 to 5 for ratings and 6, 7, and 8 for testing?
    you should always use a random selection whenever possible to test a new method as if there is a bias over say 2 consecutive years a random selection will break it up over various trials. :ok

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs E.G Rating X =50% SR over 100 games Using the texas sharpshooter analogy your aim is to hit the positive side (winners) of rating X. Therefore you break down rating X into the known values which may give you something similar to this....(somewhat oversimplified) regression.png series 1 = no of games rated X @ those odds With the 50% SR if you simply backed at odds above 2.00 you can see no value is achieved as you fall into the negative range (losers).(drawing the bullseye around the bullets) As you see the positive values (winners) fall between the odds of 1.65 to 1.83. Now using clean data test teams rated X to see if similar results are produced (ie a profit when backing only odds in the range of 1.65 to 1.83). The idea being that you need to replicate the known positive values as close as you can to stand any chance of profiting if future results follow the same trend. NB When I say clean data I mean if you have 8 seasons worth of data select 5 at random to create your ratings then use the 3 (clean data) to test it on. This is only a very basic example but it should give you an idea of the way to go about it.

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    So lets say that back testing shows that over 1000s of games, Team A wins 50% of the time, a value bet will be anything over evens? But in saying that, the 50% could be made up of games where their odds were less than evens. That would then say to me, only analyse games where Team A's odds were evens and above, which would give a different % success rate...and round and round we go! I'm confused, are we saying that the value betting idea is bunk?
    Datapunter is correct The question you should be asking is what proportions (odds) make up the 50% winning part of your test. The correct way should be at what range of prices will the rating create a positive return over an acceptable sample size per price. If you watch the vid I put up it should give you a better idea :ok

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs Your question is a little vague to say the least tested what ? the positive known values against the estimated values ? the negative known values against the estimated values ? the estimated value against the actual outcome ? Are you testing your results on new data ? (ie not data from which you are getting your ratings). I did an M.I.T course a while back on computer programming and one of the lectures included extrapolation and the theory behind why people make mistakes when doing statistical analysis maybe this can point you in the right direction HERE lecture 23 stock market simulation

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