TotoSchillaci
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Posts posted by TotoSchillaci
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Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th Shakhtar to win @ 1.70 Matchbook Shakhtar will be disappointed to be sitting 2 points behind Porto in the group especially considering the way the match day 1 showdown happened. Shakhtar were 2-0 up at home when the Portugese managed to draw 2-2 in the 90' minute. So a win here for the Ukrainians sets up a final showdown at the Dragao for first position which they believe should be their right now. For Bilbao, it's a case of too little too late. With 1 point, sitting bottom, and 2 points behind BATE who are third, I truly don't believe Valverde wants to stretch the club out to play Europa League this season (despite what he tells the media) he wants to get as high up La Liga table as possible now that his side have stopped the rot somewhat and doesn't need a whole new unwanted competition to jeopardise that. Whereas for a side like BATE, it may be an attractive prospect for them. The following is a quote from the Bilbao manager: Valverde added that he might rest some players like Aritz Aduriz, who have had issues with discomfort over the past several weeks. “It’s possible I will rest some players who might have been overloaded in recent matches. http://www.insidespanishfootball.com/136715/valverde-our-goal-is-to-play-good-football-against-a-very-strong-team/ The Spaniards have lost their last 3 CL matches, Shakhtar have hit form and have a good combination of a hard industrial defense coupled with many Brazilian weapons who can score against anyone in Europe. The highlight is Luiz Adriano who has risen to international prominence recently and what that has done is added confidence to the already present talent and this equals goals. I am going for the straight forward win here as I suspect we may have a motivation mismatch. Good Luck! :ok
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Re: Aston Villa v Southampton > Monday November 24th Yes those 3 (Vlaar, Senderos, Baker) leave them totally exposed and with the Saints next few fixtures in mind, they'll want to put some points in the bank against one of the league's worst sides while they're depleted. Can we say Vlaar is 100% absent here?
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester United > Saturday November 22nd
I strongly support this sentiment :D but if I were you I would stake and extra 0.5 points on some pizza too. For safety. I will trade goals in-play after 15-20 mins hopefully it's still 0-0 then I can back overs at a big price and lay it off once a goal flys in.So if i must bet, i will bet: 10/10 Friends+TV and Beer -> enjoy the game.... :) -
Re: Ligue 1 Orange > November 21st - 23rd I remember even from last season in Ligue 2 Metz were always a solid home play thrown in an accumulator with a draw no bet as usually they could be counted on to at least not lose. PSG. Full of internationals who have been travelling all over the place. Are they fully motivated to go to Metz and suffer for the 3 points? When they have a CL match a few days later and only have a 1 point advantage over 2nd placed Barca? The more I look at the fixture calendar, the more this match looks like the sacrificial lamb used to prevent burnout in the top players. 1-1 for PSG away from home is never a shock result these days as it seems to be quite a regular occurrence. In PSG's away Ligue matches they have a 3-4-0 record. So they've dropped points more often than they've won. Emphasise this with the Metz home recored which is 4-2-0 and it seems Metz will not go down easily here. 1.44 for Paris to win away under the above circumstances seems like a big old trap by the books and the price is designed to manipulate our perception and does not reflect the reality. What I will do is lay PSG @ 1.4-1.44 on the exchanges, then hopefully as the match remains a draw the price will drift out and I can lock in a profit. Hopefully Metz will give me a boost by scoring which will really help things along. They've scored 12 and conceded 5 in their 6 home matches. A very good record. Plus their home games are very important to them as they are 1-1-5 on the road. Of course the worst case scenario for me is that early in the match before the PSG price has had time to drift out, Ibra scores and early Slovakian round house bicycle kick and they never give up the lead.
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Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November [h=1]Brazil Head Coach Dunga confirms he will use the same line up that beat Turkey for Austria test[/h] http://www.sambafoot.com/en/news/66265_brazil_head_coach_dunga_confirms_he_will_use_the_same_line_up_that_beat_turkey_for_austria_test.html
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Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November
Have decided to trade goals in play here and leave the 3 way market for another day. I do believe this match will have over 2.5 goals which is currently odds against. Argentina will be missing two of their best defenders Rojo and Garay and will have to rely on Demichelis in the centre back role :eyesRonaldo will play as a central striker and this could work well for Portugal against the Argies as Ronaldo will see more space than against Armenia. Plus Portugal don't need him on the wing with the very capable Danny and Nani, they need a decent striker!! At the other end we'll see the very slow Carvalho matching up against Aguero, Messi, Di Maria. Again another possible tradgedy waiting to happen. So simply put, two attacks which are better than the defences that will be trying to stop them. :okAlso to be outplayed and trailing all match the way Argentina were in their 2-1 victory over a Croatia team with only 2 players who featured vs Italy, it should serve as a kick up the backside and wake the team up before taking on Portugal. Portugal are the same old BMW body fixed on a Hyundai engine. I have zero confidence in them against class and it's been my opinion for a while that they are the great pretenders of international football. I will trade in-play, depending on how motivated Argentina come out, I may decide to play overs or the Argentina win...Argentina have the strike force that Portugal lack and one that on it's day can inflict massive damage and embarrassment on a side. -
Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November Word is circulating that Austrian coach may test the fringe players for this one. Can anyone substantiate this? I can only find throw away sentences at the end of articles about the Russia 1-0 win. Anyway I can't see Dunga doing that and Brazil is so blessed with depth in talent that players need to perform in every match to remain first choice for their respective position. The match is in Wien and Austria are a 1-0 1-1 type of side who are low scorers but tight at the back. Despite this, considering it's a friendly and possible rotation on Austria's part, can we see another 0-4 like Turkey happening here? Or will they go a little easier because of club football on the weekend? All the sounds coming out of the Brazil camp are praise for how good their defense has been with all the clean sheets. So this is high in their priorities for this match. Maybe because it's a friendly Austria won't be so rigid and will give their fans a show. If so I can absolutely see over 2.5 @ 1.75 This Brazilian attack looks united, happy and the ease with which they put it in the back of the net sometimes is frightening.
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Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November Also to be outplayed and trailing all match the way Argentina were in their 2-1 victory over a Croatia team with only 2 players who featured vs Italy, it should serve as a kick up the backside and wake the team up before taking on Portugal. Portugal are the same old BMW body fixed on a Hyundai engine. I have zero confidence in them against class and it's been my opinion for a while that they are the great pretenders of international football. I will trade in-play, depending on how motivated Argentina come out, I may decide to play overs or the Argentina win...Argentina have the strike force that Portugal lack and one that on it's day can inflict massive damage and embarrassment on a side.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Sunday November 16th wow didnt expect italy croatia to be so fast and furious. 1-1 at ht and unders lòoking in serious jeopardy
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Sunday November 16th Italy - Croatia Two sides who respect each other and will approach this match with caution. Why? First off Italy are missing Juve trio Pirlo, Barzagli and Bonucci. So with two important defenders out, there are rumours that Conte will push De Rossi back to play alongside Chiellini. Whether this is true or not isn't the point. The point is that if the nation was confident in its defensive depth, these rumours wouldn't exist. Pirlo of course is a big weapon that Italy will have to do without. Italy don't really have another artistic creator like him. Whereas Croatia have Modric, Rakitic and Kovacic who are all number 10 types. So Conte will setup his midfield to be hard working, physically strong and disruptive to Modric and Rakitics movements. Don't forget he has to also consider protecting his under strength defense a little better than usual too with the absentees. Croatia are level on 9 points and ahead on goal difference. They will probably come with a tightly assembled defence that is yet to concede (albeit against minnows) and be in no rush to score as away in Milan will be the toughest fixture of the group for them. A draw leaves them 1st and only a loss will hand over the advantage to the Italians in the group. Kovac and Conte are two very wiley individuals who don't get it wrong most of the time. I can see this being very defensive at first with both teams trying to remain solid and BUILD up rhythm and earn the right to attack once they settle into the match. When (if) a team goes 1-0 up, I can see either side fighting hard to protect it rather than pushing for a second. The match could well be decided by one moment and one goal. Whatever the unders line is, I'll play it. Good Luck !
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th
Well he's certainly in form at the minute...I see Thomas Muller is 6/1 with Corals for a hatrick. Can't bet this crowd myself, bit if you could be sure he would get an hour min, then would have to be of interest. Robbie Keane and Robert Lewandoski have both done it in Gibraltars two games against better teams to date. Think I remember Lewandoski being 5/2 with B365 for the same bet - horrible price that but 6/1 looks BIG. Sent from my HTC One using PL Forum
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Re: Burnley v Hull City > Saturday November 8th What justifies the price on Burnley as favorite? Hull has drawn with Liverpool and Arsenal. They have some very decent players and work hard, are they supposed to go to Burnley and play scared? No
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Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Saturday November 8th Well it was a similar situation at Old Trafford a couple weeks ago with Chelsea expected to pummel United but just holding onto a 0-1 lead and being overly cautious. Option 1: Mourinho is too cautious agian which opens the door for Liverpool to do something in this match. Option 2: He learnt his lesson from the "home refereeing" in the last minutes at Man U and goes straight for the jugular here. Once he gets 3 goals infront, THEN he can bring on Obi Mikel and do all his other negative changes. We'll see. One for in-play for me.
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Re: Arsenal v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 4th
If the bet was -1 handicaps on Arsenal' date=' Dortmund and Real then Real would have lost too (unless it was -1 Asian)[/quote'] I always speak in terms of asians yes. Else I'll say 1.5 -
Re: Arsenal v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 4th
Well of course THIS was the match the upset fell upon. 3-0 up and concede 3 goals. This is the meaning of disgust :puke. The 1st Belgian goal was a mile off side and even a 3-2 win would've only lost half my stake. Thinking of just giving up the football and joining ISIS if this continues.Had a very similar bet in mind but past painful experiences make me paranoid that one of the 3 will F-- up. If just one of the 3 fails to win, remember the books make their profit. -
Re: Arsenal v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 4th
One important point is that realistically' date=' Anderlecht need to WIN this game to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the knockout stages. [/quote'] Anderlecht coming forward onto Arsenal is custom made to suit the Gunners and would be the perfect midweek practice for Walcott to work on the timing and speed of his counter-attacks. The Arsenal coaching staff couldn't set up a better training drill if they tried :lol
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Re: Arsenal v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 4th
Don't usually run trebles but -1 handicap treble on Arsenal' date=' Real Madrid, Dortmund looking mightily tempting tonight.[/quote'] Had a very similar bet in mind but past painful experiences make me paranoid that one of the 3 will F-- up. If just one of the 3 fails to win, remember the books make their profit. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'd prefer to take bigger handicaps on the 3 but individually as the bookies love all the faves in an accumulator. But considering the circumstances of the 3 matches, yeah, you have to say the probability is very high. -
Re: Arsenal v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 4th This is the type of match where Arsenal really turn it on. Nothing truly at stake with the table reading Pts 9-6-1-1 and at home to a really weak team who isn't up to the standard of the CL. They record a big win and get the pundits talking and ultimately do nothing in the competition. For this particular match, Arsenal should cover the handicaps with relative ease. The reverse match wasn't a true reflection of where the two sides are in the world. Anderlecht aren't even good in Belgium and Defour is out who is an international who would've been useful in breaking up some Arsenal passes. Again it's an opportunity to get some positive press, get Walcott in some scoring form and Welbeck may even score a hat-trick to convince yet more people that he's a real striker. Arsene will say "our passing was good", "our concentration was good" etc etc. and we'll collect our cash after 90 mins on Arsenal -1.25 AH
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Re: Australia » Hyundai A-League » 31 Oct-3 Nov Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets Purely based on form, Perth to beat the Jets at home holds value here and in my opinion is the most likely outcome. Irish Stiker Keogh has sparked this Perth side into life and he is the long lost player they have been searching for the last few seasons. Newcastle's best midfielder for the past few seasons Zadkovich is now a Perth player (though I think he's injured as he hasn't featured yet) and I think they miss him as Newcastle are a side with few standouts. Couple this with Perth winning 4 of their last 5 and Jets losing 4 of their last 5 (all comps). Not to mention Newcastle's woeful h2h record with perth losing 4 and drawing 1 of the last 5. To emphasise this record, of those 5 matches, 4 were in Newcastle and only 1 in Perth. Take Perth here. If you want more safety, throw the dnb in a double or trade out once Perth go in front. Good Luck! :ok
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Re: Australia » Hyundai A-League » 31 Oct-3 Nov Melbourne City v Adelaide United In all 3 of both their respective matches played to date, there have been no 0-0 draws and no matches which featured only a single goal. So all 6 matches have seen at least 2 goals scored. City led the Melbourne derby at 0-1 and later at 1-2 but ended up on the end of a 5-2 hammering from their rivals. They will be motivated to right that wrong and even more so as it's David Villa's last match for them and after scoring 2 goals in 3 matches, they'll want to repay the favor by sending him out a winner. Adelaide are the same as last season, quite a few Spanish and South American players with flair and good technical skills really define them as a team. They aren't shy to concede a goal as long as they score 1 more than their opponents. They get forward down the flanks and will attack even away from home home, it doesn't matter. This match could well finish under, the match itself will see open attacking football with the action moving end to end. In a match that plays out that way, I'm happy to take the risk on over 2.5 goals and even lay off in-play depending on what time the goal comes and how the match is unfolding. over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 Marathon Bet
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Re: Serie A TIM > October 28th - 30th Cagliari - Milan Until last week's 0-4 win at Empoli, Cagliari had conceded in every match. They have only taken 1 point from 9 at home and when Milan visit, the home side will be going for all 3 most definitely. ``Our big win at Empoli has given us a big boost in confidence,'' Cagliari playmaker Andrea Cossu said. ``Now we face Milan and we really want to win at home in order to give our fans some joy.'' This will be a perfect situation for goals with space being afforded to both teams to attack here. Milan's matches average 3.5 goals and Cagliari exactly 3.0 With players like the Pharaoh, Honda, Menez, Sau, Cossu and Ekdal (4 goals in 8 matches) there should be a fair chance of goals here so I'll risk over 2.5 1.80 @ matchbook or 1.79 @ Pinnacle Good luck! :ok
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Re: Serie A TIM > October 28th - 30th 1
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Re: Capital One Cup - October 28th & 29th My 2 cents worth is that we'll have better attacks than defences on show after the chopping and changing is done. Will wait around 15 mins until the over 2.5 hits a nice juicy price then back it and lay it off once the first goal flies in. From http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/liverpool/league-cup/preview/preview-liverpool-vs-swansea-city_185008.html "The last three matches in all competitions between these sides have had 16 goals and the last time they met in the League Cup was when Swansea stunned Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield at the same stage before going on to lift the trophy in 2012-13." The draw with Hull at the weekend in my opinion only further mounts pressure on Rodgers with points being dropped in the league, sub par performances and Italian strikers having goal droughts. Therefore it further draws focus away from this cup with the other competitions simply the main targets. This means we may see one or two changes more than if Liverpool were on a winning streak for example. Also thinking about Swansea +0.75, but will stick to my goals trade for now. Good Luck! :ok
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Re: Capital One Cup - October 28th & 29th I read somewhere that apparently Monk will go strong here. Is there any reason to believe this? What's the mail in UK? Cheers
Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th
in Champions League Predictions
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Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th