TotoSchillaci
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Posts posted by TotoSchillaci
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Re: International Friendlies 25-26 March Motivation wise, Bahrain - Colombia may be a good one. Falcao all over the press on how he wants to use these matches to turn his situation around, James out so a number of talented players looking to get themselves in the play-making picture and also Bahrain have finished a poor asian cup exiting the group in January while Colombia are gearing up for Copa America so will take their two friendlies fairly seriously.
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Re: International Friendlies 25-26 March
Australia won't open up against Germany. They'll park the bus' date=' pack the defensive and midfield lines [/quote'] No this hasn't been the case with Australia for years now. They play positive all the time despite the opponent as seen tonight. Germans slept through most of that match though...frustrating. -
Re: International Friendlies 25-26 March The Socceroos are fresh from being crowned the Champions of Asia as recently as January in a great tournament from them. Now they must travel to face Germany in Kaiserslautern. Germany had a post World Cup hangover after becoming the Champions of the World. This match and the one against Georgia next week represent a clean start for the Germans in 2015 where they will aim to turn back into the usual "results machine" that they are. I believe Germany are well capable of clearing Australia by 2 goals or more. The main reason for this is that half of their best 11 from the Asian cup is out tonight: Cahill, Kruse, Luongo are their 3 best attackers and won't play. Sainsbury and Spiranovic are their central defensive pairing and they will also be absent along with striker Juric. It means that the coach will field a line-up relatively short on international experience. Especially in comparison to the Germans whose depth in talent dwarfs that of the Aussies. The majority of the talk from Australia's side is that the coach doesn't want to lose only 1-0 but not touch the ball for 90 mins. He is a coach very conscious of playing proactive fast-passing football. I think that philosophy which he sticks to and which won him the Asian Cup will hurt him in this match. Going away to the World Champions and opening up and "challenging themselves" (the phrase bandied about in Aussie media today) with a makeshift side out, is a delightful recipe for disaster in my opinion. I mentioned Germany's post WC hangover, now with injuries and players that haven't played a match since the Asian Cup final (Davidson, Franjic) maybe it's time for Australia's post Asian Cup hangover... Germany -2 AH @ 1.92 Betfair
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday March 28th Pirlo and Balo out may not be a bad thing here. There are a number of players in this Italy squad who will be desperate to make an impression in this match and move from the fringes into the main setup of the team. Namely Candreva (good form in Lazio), Eder (newly called up based on his excellent showings for Sampdoria), Veratti (needs to show he is the man in midfield and show the performance many know he is capable of), Gabbiadini (after his move to and good performances for Napoli, he has to show his class at international level). Also Zaza and Immobile are in competition for a permanent striking role and with Balotelli out, they must seize the opportunity. Both are good strikers. Someone suggested a "tactical draw" was good enough above. Italy are second behind Croatia. This isn't acceptable for them as they want to qualify in first position. Remember this is Conte. So Conte has his beloved Juve defense of Buffon-Barzagli-Chiellini-Bonnuci all fit for this one and then a number of attractive options in mid and attack to work with so I'm optimistic of Italy's chances here. Italy squad: Gk: Buffon (Juventus), Perin (Genoa), Sirigu (Paris Saint Germain); D: Barzagli (Juventus), Bonucci (Juventus), Chiellini (Juventus), Moretti (Torino), Ranocchia (Inter); M: Antonelli (Milan), Bertolacci (Genoa), Candreva (Lazio), Cerci (Milan), Darmian (Torino), Florenzi (Roma), Marchisio (Juventus), Parolo (Lazio), Pasqual (Fiorentina), Soriano (Sampdoria), Valdifiori (Empoli), Verratti (Paris Saint Germain); F: Eder (Sampdoria), Gabbiadini (Napoli), Immobile (Borussia Dortmund), Pellé (Southampton), Vazquez (Palermo), Zaza (Sassuolo) Admittedly I don't know any of the Bulgaria players but I notice most of them play in Bulgaria and mostly for Ludogrets or Sofia. I will hold off and wait for more news but Italy look decent value for the win and chasing Croatia while Bulgaria have 4 points and realistically aren't hoping to make it.
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Re: Newcastle United v Arsenal > Saturday March 21st Agree with the great posts above. Motivation is always my number one consideration when looking at any match and it seems to be on opposite ends of the spectrum here. Players don't need much of an excuse to perform below par and take it easy in professional sport if they can get away with it. That's why managers always talk about mentality, attitude etc. Newcastle are coming into this one with a bag full of excuses to lose as outlined above. Have also taken the -1 AH @ 1.99 Pinnacle
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Re: Borussia Dortmund v Juventus > Wednesday March 18th BVB will try to make it a high intensity contest with a lot of running and chances to be had. Juve will try to take the sting out by slowing things down and then trying to pick BVB apart one piece at a time. Two opposing styles and whichever gets the match play out their way goes through imo.
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Re: Borussia Dortmund v Juventus > Wednesday March 18th Pirlo out
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th Roma - Fiorentina Roma have just lost 0-2 at home to Sampdoria to officially kill any lingering hopes of a Scudetto. That now sees Roma only having won 2 of their last 12 matches and the Roma of the first half of the season seems to be dead. The fans were whistling throughout the Sampdoria match and many feel Rudi Garcia's days are numbered. They have players like Gervinho, Iturbe, Totti and Llajic upfront but still struggle to put scores on teams. The way they have been playing recently, you really wouldn't back them against any side. Fiorentina however are on a clear uptrend and Montella has this squad playing good quality football and picking up results. They are on an 11 match unbeaten run. Today Milan took the lead at the Stadio Artemi Franchi where a shanked shot was controlled by Destro past the keeper. A very fluky goal. But a rotated Fiorntina side missing Salah didn't drop their heads. Two headed goals saw them defeat the Rossoneri 2-1 and they will take great confidence from the result to Rome. Just observing these two play you can see Fiorentina play good technical football with good tempo and know how to carve out an opportunity. Roma look like a car that splutters along with a part missing. Roma don't have a quality striker who regularly gets them goals. Also their back four can be got at and really doesn't have that much quality that you may expect from Serie A's second side. In this match I'll play the double chance on Fiorentina as I can't understand why the books have priced it this way other than the home advantage. Both sides will give everything here and if it's a cautious match that ends up 0-0 or 1-1, we still profit. Fiorentina +0.5 @ 1.78 Pinnacle
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Re: AS Monaco v Arsenal > Tuesday March 17th Also if Arsenal concede 1 goal, it doesn't change the picture for them, they MUST score 3 goals in France. And I don't believe Monaco will be as ultra defensive as everyone thinks as they know that scoring can demoralise the gunners out of the contest. I think over 2.5 is a great chance here but won't bet. If I see after 10-15 mins that Arsenal have started in 5th gear and have the French penalty area under siege, then I will back overs which by then may have climbed to 2.20-2.30 and then lay it off after 1 or 2 goals are scored and take profit in the event it finishes under. In these big hard to predict matches, I prefer to trade them live as usually the way we envision a match and what unfolds are two different things.
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Re: Australia > Hyundai A-League > 2014/15 Sydney FC - Melbourne City Friday night football sees the form team of the league host an inconsistent Melbourne City. In the post above I outlined the trials and tribulations that a weakened down Western Sydney Wanderers side would have to face in the lead up to their match in Asia. They would host both Melbourne sides within 48 hours of each other. Against the Victory they lost 0-3 and were thoroughly outplayed. 48 hours prior they fielded a considerably weaker side against City (perhaps they thought City as lesser a threat than Victory) and were losing 1-2 but still rallied to defeat Melbourne City 3-2 with their fringe players. At the weekend City won at home 4-0 but that was against a Newcastle side who weeks ago suffered a mass exodus of players and has been fielding mostly youngsters who struggle for consistent performances. Meanwhile Sydney FC were hosting Brisbane 24 hours later on Sunday and were leading 2-1 when the heavens opened and saturated the stadium and with the rain came the errors and away went the ball control. The match ended up having 9 goals and Sydney took the points winning 5-4 managing to keep their composure better than Brisbane. Above I mentioned that Melbourne City are inconsistent, but not if you separate their home and away performances. They do their best work in their own stadium and away they are consistently poor. City Away record: 2-2-6 F 14 A 23 Last 3 Away: 0-1-2 F 2 A 4 Sydney Last 3 Home: 2-1-0 F 12 A 9 Sydney are the form team in the league taking 16 of the last 18 points on offer. Melbourne City have lost 4 of their last 5 away being beaten by the lowly Central Coast Mariners twice and the other result was a goalless draw in New Zealand against Wellington. Sydney FC to win @ 2.00 Marathon Bet Good Luck :ok
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Re: Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday March 15th One to trade inplay. Maybe lay Man U pre match then green up as they stumble and stutter their way through the 90 mins.
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Re: Serie A TIM > March 14th - 16th Serie A Monday Double with protection. Lazio double chance @ 1.40 into Fiorentina +0 AH @ 1.43 total odds 2.00 Marathon Bet Torino - Lazio Torino traveled to Zenit (Russia) in the Europa league went down to 10 men on 27', lost a striker to injury on 34' and ended up losing 2-0 in the end. Not ideal preparation to face Lazio who are the form team in Italy and have had a week to rest and prepare for their assault on the Champions League places. Fiorentina - Milan Fiorentina played a solid match against Roma who equalised with a late header in the Europa League. They missed a few chances early on to kill the match and towards the end were weathering a Roma backlash. But Fiorentina have a pretty good side, are superior to the Milan team and have home advantage. Milan away form home play just like they do at home...poorly. In their last 3 on the road they've drawn 1 and lost 2 scored 2 and conceded 6.
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Re: Serie A TIM > March 14th - 16th Palermo - Juventus Juventus have an 11 point lead at the top of Serie A and winning the domestic title year after year is starting to become a mundane task for them. This will be their 4th title in a row. They have a massive match away in Dortmund next week and I think their minds will be in Germany. Several players may be rested by Allegri so they are fresh for the Champion's League second leg. Palermo are a decent side at home and it's their poor road form that sees them in mid table. At home their record is 7-5-1 very impressive only losing one match. Ironically Juve's away record is also 7-5-1 but they have drawn their last 3 away from Turin. All we need for this bet to win is a draw. At Palermo there will be a stadium packed with screaming Sicilians and the atmosphere won't be pleasant for Juventus. I don't believe Juventus will be 100% focused and pushing hard for the win here like we are used to seeing considering how important progression in Europe is to them. Also their main rivals Roma are dropping points so frequently that I believe Juve don't even feel their Serie A title is threatened and therefore can aim all their weapons at Europe. Personally I will bet on Palermo +0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Pinnacle which sees half the stake returned if Palermo lose by a single goal.
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th - Diego Costa clearly fouled and brought down by Cavani in the box after his weaving run, no penalty. - Ibra and Oscar go into a tackle, Ibra tucks both feet away while Oscar goes in with studs. Red card Ibra? - Diego Costa cynically chops Silva down from behind as he is trying to clear, no sending off. - Diego Costa shoves Marquinhos when referee turns his back but linesmen and officials still see, no sending off. A match truly shaped by poor refereeing.
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
My problem with this is PSG must score at least once here. So by your thinking, you are assuming PSG will only really give themselves the opportunity to score for 20 out of 90 mins? Why would they handicap themselves so heavily?You should expect an entirely forgettable opening 45 minutes which will be scoreless. Second half will start off as cagey as the first and seemingly go nowhere. Then on around 70 minutes PSG will finally start to really open up and go for it, and Chelsea will have a few chances on the counter attack. It's only now that we can expect a goal or two to maybe force extra time. -
Re: Australia > Hyundai A-League > 2014/15 Wanderers - Melbourne Victory My main reason for this bet is that the Western Sydney Wanderers are currently in the midst of a horror run of fixtures and I think they'll be beaten here. WSW are bottom of the table with no chance to make the play-offs. Coach Popovic rotates heavily and does so to favor the Asian Champions League matches where his team are attempting to defend their title. Last week they suffered a 2-3 loss at home to Guangzhou Evergrande which puts pressure on their remaining 4 group matches. WSW lost away to Brisbane on Sunday, will host Melbourne City on Wednesday night, and then host the Melbourne Victory precisely 48 hours later on the Friday night before they fly to Korea to play Seoul next Wednesday. :\ The reason for the congested fixture list is due to WSW winning the Asian Champions League (the latter rounds occur during Australian preseason) and then going on to the World Club Cup. So these matches are all the catch up fixtures which WSW really could do without as they only have 8 points anyway and would really just rather concentrate on Seoul. Hosting the Victory 48 hours after City is ridiculous in terms of have a proper recovery and preparation. The Melbourne Victory haven't been posting enough wins of late and were frustrated at home by Perth at the weekend in a match they should have won. Their star striker Berisha is out of form but on the whole the team are still playing well with their trademark dangerous attack and have a whole lot more motivation here sitting only 3 points away from 1st position on the ladder. They look ripe for a win to me and will be completely focused against a host who are juggling too many balls than they can handle right now. http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/wanderers-horror-injury-run-claims-another-victim-with-mark-bridge-facing-weeks-out-20150309-13ze9n.html "We are struggling physically" Melbourne Victory -0.5 @ 2.10 Pinnacle
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 12th Europa Double This is what I perceive to be a conservative double that will potentially double our stake: Everton - Kiev Don't be deceived by Everton's poor domestic form as Martinez has thrown all his eggs into the European basket quite some time ago as this may be the last chance to save a disappointing season. Everton will be coming off a much needed 8 day rest after a somewhat crammed run of fixtures. This team beat Young Boys 3-1 at Goodison in the round of 32 and in the group stage hammered a strong Wolfsburg 4-1 at home also. Everton want to get as far as they can in this competition. While Kiev are beating everyone in the Ukraine and have a comfortable lead at the top, their away fixtures in the EL include a 3-0 loss to AaB from Denmark and a 2-1 defeat to French side Guingamp. The Ukranians would be very content with a draw to take back home and may play cautiously. They did hold Valencia 0-0 at the Mestalla so we can't rule out that sort of result. For that reason the first leg of the double is Everton +0 AH @ 1.61 Marathon Bet Wolfsburg - Inter Wolfsburg are second in the Bundesliga by 9 points to 3rd and are having a tremendous season with quality players littering their side. They are a very gun ho side especially at home and will concede goals regularly but back themselves to score more than the opposition. So they are that sort of side. But we can take confidence for their Bundesliga home record of 10-2-0 F 27 A 8. A very excellent home side winning their last 5 at the Volkswagen Arena in all competitions. Inter are not at Wolfsburg's level yet this season. Their away record in Italy is 4-6-4 . We saw away to Celtic how they just couldn't shut the door on the Scotsmen when in front on the scoreboard constantly letting Celtic back in until it finally ended 3-3. A similar performance here and they won't be so fortunate as to pick up a draw. At the weekend they had another draw away to Napoli who led 2-0 until Inter came back in the last 20 mins to draw 2-2 so they do have fight in them and the confidence to get back in to contests. Inter will feel their best chance is back at the San Siro and similar to the first leg, won't push the issue early on. The second leg of the double is Wolfsburg +0 AH @ 1.25 Marathon Bet Total odds = 2.01 so we double our stake on the home wins while having draw protection should either of the hosts get frustrated. Both these home sides want a win to take into the second leg and they will be taking the initiative to get it here.
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
In the West Ham match, Chelsea were away. In the Monaco win PSG were at home. Now PSG have to go to London. In Ligue 1, their away record is 5-7-2. If PSG draw 2-2 in Paris against Caen and then away to Guingamp and Bastia lose 1-0 and 4-2 respectively, how can you trumpet PSG so confidently? How many times this season have they gone away to little nothing teams to collect an easy 3 point and the score is always 1-1? Paris will be kicking themselves that they missed those opportunities during their dominant second half in France to put Chelsea to the sword, but in London the game will be harder for them than in the first leg. Also why are you saying Mourinho doesn't care about scoring as long as he doesn't concede. Do you think he feels comfortable with an away goal and is playing for 0-0? Or are you just implying Mourinho is a fool? Will he play like that? I don't think so.Chelsea-PSG PSG +0.5 @ evens and a small put on 1:2 Correct Score @ 15 both with bet365 Ok,i will be the first to say that i was very disappointed with Chelsea last night.They looked toothless to me upfront,unorganized at the back and before Hazard opened the score WH had a few good chances to score which were wasted by Sakho.If they play like this on Wednesday they will get hammered.'The Blues'were totally outplayed in Paris in the reversed fixture.They were defending deeply in their own half with PSG attacking and only pure luck saved their as*es.I can't see something different this time.Thy will no doubt park the bus,trying not to lose again,relying only on counter-attacks.Mourinho has an impressive record in CL,as well as at home but it can't last any longer.PSG are far superior in my eyes,playing attractive and passing game and if Chelsea leave so much open spaces at the back they will no doubt be punished.1.85 doesn't interest me at all and i think the value is certainly on the AW.The only difference will be that there will be more Uk fans that French one's and it is a funny thing that Moruinho doesn't give a rat's ass about attacking as far as they don't concede.Chelsea might be the top side in Uk but when it comes to CL games i think they are not ready yet and it is very possible to remain that way while Mourinho is in charge.PSG were the better side in the 1st leg agains Chelsea,yesterday they won 2:0 against Monaco eliminating them,they are still in the fight for the league title so nothing suggests Chelsea should be that heavy favourites at 'Stamford Bridge'. -
Re: FA Cup > Saturday March 7th Man Utd - Arsenal Man Utd once again put in a poor all round performance at Newcastle and as a result of the tenaciousness of Rooney, the ball found itself sitting up nicely for Ashley Young who couldn't believe his good fortune as he slotted the winner home. This is a recurring story in recent matches where you see the performance and you can't understand how that performance matches up to that result. Many times the plot includes De Gea saving Man Utd at the back allowing them to live match by match. Honestly watching the Newcastle match it seemed as thought they were making it up as they went with no clear indication of what the players were trying to do when in possession. Arsenal don't have that issue. While they certainly have their own weaknesses, they have a clear identity and a distinct way of playing where everyone knows their role. So will this be the match where the Camel's back finally breaks? At the odds I'm willing to take the chance. When they played in the league, Arsenal should have smashed them but didn't take their chances and then fell victim to Man U counter attacks. That was a long time ago and both teams have changed now. We saw away to Man City what Arsenal are capable of when they play a controlled and balanced game rather than try to "go for the kill" for 90 mins. Arsenal +0 AH @ 2.20 SBObet
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Re: Newcastle United v Manchester United > Wednesday March 4th Haha Man Utd have no clue what they are doing. I think they literally make it up as they go pass by pass. But the worse they perform the more points they pick up so credit to them. Scary to think what they must be capable of if they actually play well!
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Re: DFB Pokal > March 3rd & 4th Well done Neubs. The part about Dresden in the last 10 mins was gold. The goal in the 89th min covered the -1.5 :ok
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Re: West Ham v Chelsea > Wednesday March 4th I think West Ham have slipped up one too many times and they are now resigned to a nothing finish somewhere around mid table. Their last few performances show us the air has gone out of their sails. Chelsea are on the opposite end of the motivation spectrum. Feel hard done by in their home draw, just won a cup and have seen Man City bottle it at Anfield. Their foot is well and truly over City's throat. All that is needed now is a firm stamp.
International Friendlies 25-26 March
in Other International Predictions
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Re: International Friendlies 25-26 March