[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Good write up on Giraldo. Hard to see past him on current form. Machado is a dirt rat. He's surely here for the cash and nothing more. I know you were saying it in a jokey manner, but we shouldn't be scared of posting the same bets. Just because someone posted it before you doesn't mean your view doesn't count. If anything, it reinforces the feeling on that bet and might (for good or for bad) push people looking for a bet to back it. A prime example was Simon in the final and Troicki in the semis last week - a lot of people foresaw that and a lot of followers got the profit. That's good. Of course, sometimes it backfires, and we all lose out, but that's bound to happen at some point :lol Hopefully that won't be the case tonight.

Jokey manner, me ;)

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Not a great start yesterday but hope for better today. Agreeing with Atko with regards to Ferrer and Dolgopolov. Was also hoping to take unders on the Soderling match but the price is terrible for what the bet actually is. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Mikhail Kukushkin- Dolgopolov -4.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Dolgopolov has really came of sorts in the last year, leading to a top 50 spot for the Ukranian. Already had a couple of warm ups down under, so he'll certainly be settled and raring to go. IMO, he's the kind of player who will beat other guys around the same ability level or slightly lower 9/10 times now as he's matured in the past 12 months. It's only where he'll play the top 20 players where he struggles, but he's still young enough to develop his game further. As Atko pointed out, he does prefer the clay but he certainly is no mug on other surfaces, shown by impressive wins over Baghdatis and Youzhny last year. Kukushkin is a good draw from Dolgopolov here, as he's only played two matches in Australia to warm up, with indifferent results against players well below Dolgopolov's standard. Last season, Kukushkin barely beat anyone of note on the outdoor hard courts, which are slower. H2H is 2-0 in Dolgopolov's favour, he should make it 3 without much trouble. Jarkko Nieminen vs David Ferrer- Ferrer -6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Terrible odds if compared to what Atko got for what is ironically a slightly riskier bet as well but still happy to take it. Ferrer is one of those guys when looked at, you wouldn't expect him to be any good at catching a ball let alone tennis but what I really like about him is he's clever. He knows he's not going to serve ace after ace, nor winner after winner but what he will do is gradually grind down his opponent into making mistakes which is what has made him such a good player. Coming in with good form as well, winning in Auckland beating 4 guys who are certainly no pushovers. The Fin on the other hand is likely to be struggling with fitness concerns here. Had to retire against Gil last week due to a knee injury, which is far from perfect preparation for a grand slam. This could be perfect for Ferrer as he'll make Nieminen run all over the place and monouevre the ball cleverly. Feel it might be a close first set, but if Ferrer gets throught this, it could be all one way traffic. Just to show I'm not copying all of Atko's picks with a different write up with poorer odds :lol : Rui Machado vs Santiago Giraldo- Giraldo -7.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Took a handicap last week with Giraldo against Montanes and he came through so will back him once again here. Although it's a big handicap for someone outside the top 50, Giraldo can certainly cover it if he plays like he's done for the past 2 weeks. Impressive wins over Simon, Montanes and Bellucci will give him alot of confidence going into this week. A year ago, he produced a fine display in the first round knocking out Robredo in straights so he'll not be scared of the ocassion. His opponent only played a total of 5 matches on the hard last year, and those were all qualifiers against lesser players. Then in preparation for this week, he lost both his matches this year against Falla, who is not fo Giraldo's quality, so don't see how Machado is going to seriously trouble the Colombian here. This isn't clay and Giraldo is no qualifier, so hoping for an easy win for him here. Bojana Jovanovski vs Kai-Chen Chang- Jananovski -4.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Have to favour the young Serbian here after the strides she made last week. Won 7 matches on on the trot, including wins against Kanepi, Rezai and Pennett before narrowly falling to Li. She played some really impressive tennis though and looks like she has worked hard over the off season to improve her game. Last season she was getting through the qualifiers but mostly getting hammered in the first round by a seeded player. She should have some confidence though from last week and in the women's game, confidence plays a large part. Chang hasn't played a match this season and was playing carpet events at the back end of last year. This is a complete contrast to what is in store today against a very much in form Jovanovski. They've played eachother twice, with the Serbian winning both, last of those coming last year where she covered this handicap. Hopefully she'll carry her good form into this week and take this one with the handicap.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

WIN WIN WIN LOSS Happy with that, good start.

Great shouts mate :clap

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Few handicaps out and about now, and taken another early one. Yen-Hsun Lu vs Gilles Simon- Simon -6.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Happy to take this handicap early as the price is likely to fall rapidly. Simon as we've seen this week has had good practice and prep for the slam with the win in Sydney where he looked very solid and failing to drop a set. He actually played Lu in the first round there and beat him at the expence of 3 games. Even without the third set, the handicap was covered and Simon appeared to go from strength to strength as he played his next match finally rounding it off against a strong Troicki in the final. Simon missed the Aussie Open last year, so he will want to make amends this year and make up for lost time. Quick word about Lu, a very hot and cold player. Was beaten by a qualifier last time around down under, then was the suprise package in London by beating Roddick, and had some good results on the hard courts last year, but can't ignore the fact that Simon is a class above him, echoed by his 3-0 H2H record against him. 2 of those have actually been rather close but as shown last week, Simon is playing some good tennis at the minute and fancy him to win this with some style.

WIN Only win on first day, meaning with the Sharapova in play bet, loss but not a significant one. Really tough day to call the matches.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Looks an interesting draw to me but will wait for the handicaps before taking any match outrights to see where the best value lies. Taking my first one early though. Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Daniel Brands- Tie break to be played in match- Evens William Hill- (5/10) Both players involved had shocking results at the end of last season and Brands' poor form has continued into this year. Stakhovsky started this year okay, but the level of his opponents were hardly world class. This is shown through the man from Ukraine needing 2 tie breaks to beat Becker. I'm taking this bet on purely because of the German though. He seems to be one of those players, win or lose, in good form or bad, that will be involved in at least a couple of lenghy sets. If we look back to his last 2 slams, he was involved in 2 tie breaks in his defeat in the US open, and an incredible 8 in his matches at Wimbledon (at least 1 in each match) Stakhovsky is no stranger to the tie break form either which would indicate that a tie break could well be on the cards. They've played eachother twice before, where a tie break has been played in the first set on both ocassions. Decent price for the tie break here, considering the price for the overs is skinnier.

LOSS Risk didn't pay off on Brands. Lack of match practice meant he never really kept up with the Ukranian.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

So far the tournament is great for live betting in my opinion. Unfortunately it is basically impossible to share opinions on those :\

'So far' lol, tournament only got under way a couple of hours ago :lol. On a side note, Brands couldn't force that tie break, Sharapova couldn't do the job so not the best of starts. Looking at the matches, some shocks already. De Bakker, Hanescu and Kubot all looking good.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Just a quick live in play one for me. Sharapova -8.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365 (6/10) Just taken the first set 6-1. So anything better than a 6-2 will do. Doubted her but her opponent has got a knee injury and can barely run but looks like she's continuing. Should be okay for Maria here.

Never say it's over till it's over for a bet, but yeah that's over. Horrible from Sharapova, as soon as I thought her serve was okay for a bit against what is an essentially handicaped opponent, she throws in another bunch of DF's. Oh well.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Just a quick live in play one for me. Sharapova -8.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365 (6/10) Just taken the first set 6-1. So anything better than a 6-2 will do. Doubted her but her opponent has got a knee injury and can barely run but looks like she's continuing. Should be okay for Maria here.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Is it just me or does julien benneteau seem great value at 7-4 against juan monaco

Not a bad price on Benny but not convinced over his fitness. Last week was is first match back for a while so if it were to go the distance, not completely sure if he could take it. Saying that, Monaco is no Sampras. Was considering overs but left it.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I have found some tips in my mail so I will just leave it here 1 - Hradecka Australian Open Lucie Hradecka - Alberta Brianti Hradecka is the physical east european player, she uses to play only the baseline hitting strong the ball and trying to not to miss so much leading the game. Brianti instead is more talented player but with a bad physical, she doesn't serve well as she is not tall and also on the baseline she doesn't have a lot of power and neither amazing winners, she just has a very good slice and that's it, an average players. Both players didn't begun the season so good, but we believe Hradecka is the strongest player and on a major like Australian Open she will win this match. Odds to Members 1.70 LUCIE HRADECKA TO BET 2 - Elena Baltacha Australian Open Elena Baltacha - Jamie Hampton Hampton is Q and is playing very well this year winning a lot of qualification match and also first rounds, she is a young American player with a normal talent and playing on a baseline game, no more at all. Baltacha instead didn't begun so well the season, but she is absolutely stronger player, she has more power, more winners and is absolutely the favourite on this match in our opinion, much more then what the odds say at all as normally the stronger players as well do the best of themself on the most important tournaments and that is the case. Odds to Members 1.70 ELENA BALTACHA TO BET 3 - Mannarino Australian Open Adrian Mannarino - Ryan Harrison French Adrian Mannarino begun well the season and last week in Auckland as well he played a very good match against Almagro, he is a baseline player with a very good service and two good strokes as well and this year for him is the real one where he should have his best performance. Harrison instead just played a good tournament at US Open last year losing an incredible match to Stakhovsky, is a good young player with some good talent on baseline game but without a so good service like Mannarino that on mens tennis it's a big key. Right now seems more in shape Mannarino and the service on a fast surface like this one could matter, for that we are going with him. Odds to Members 1.75 ADRIAN MANNARINO TO BET 4 - Wickmayer Australian Open Yannina Wickmayer - Jarmila Groth Jarmila won last week in Hobart a very good tournament, of course she didn't beat any top player but she played very well for the whole tournament and she in shape of course even if it's always tough to win a tournament and then 2 days later play a first round of a slam with a lot of pressure on. Jarmila is a player that loves to hit strong whichever ball and a very offensive player then, her problem is that she doesn't know very well to manage the pressure and sometimes on the most important moments she can fill that as happened for example ag. Petkovic two weeks ago, so here she will have a lot of that cause she will play as well on the night session and is a pressure more on her. Wickmayer instead lost the final on the first week of the season and during last week she fully trained in Melbourne for it, she is a more complete baseline player that doesn't risk so much like Groth and that has much more experience to such important match like this one and in our opinion this could be the key of it as well. Wickmayer seems more physically ready, more experience on a slam and more complete to play a so important match like one. We finally don't think she is the underdog on this match and then our money on her. Odds to Members 2.10 YANNINA WICKMAYER TO BET and I found also this page http://bleacherreport.com/articles/572574-australian-open-2011-picking-all-127-matches-of-the-mens-draw nothing fancy but some useful facts :hope gl

Would be careful with these one mates. With regards to the Hampton-Baltacha affair, Hampton was impressive in her qualifiers and Baltacha wasn't playing great tennis last week. Mannarino is being touted as the next big thing from what I've been reading, but alot of this if not all has been said purely because of a decent week last week. Harrison looked very mature in the US open last season. Finally, would be wrong to say Wickmayer is in better shape as she's been struggling for the last few days will her fitness. Groth, as you mentioned is big on power and if she's on song, with Wickmayer struggling, could well blow her off the court. Good luck though mate, hope they come through for you :ok

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Suprised there are so many different bets about tonight, not alot of value about for me. Happy just to stick with my two already posted. All the best tonight for all though.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Few handicaps out and about now, and taken another early one. Yen-Hsun Lu vs Gilles Simon- Simon -6.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Happy to take this handicap early as the price is likely to fall rapidly. Simon as we've seen this week has had good practice and prep for the slam with the win in Sydney where he looked very solid and failing to drop a set. He actually played Lu in the first round there and beat him at the expence of 3 games. Even without the third set, the handicap was covered and Simon appeared to go from strength to strength as he played his next match finally rounding it off against a strong Troicki in the final. Simon missed the Aussie Open last year, so he will want to make amends this year and make up for lost time. Quick word about Lu, a very hot and cold player. Was beaten by a qualifier last time around down under, then was the suprise package in London by beating Roddick, and had some good results on the hard courts last year, but can't ignore the fact that Simon is a class above him, echoed by his 3-0 H2H record against him. 2 of those have actually been rather close but as shown last week, Simon is playing some good tennis at the minute and fancy him to win this with some style.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Looks an interesting draw to me but will wait for the handicaps before taking any match outrights to see where the best value lies. Taking my first one early though. Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Daniel Brands- Tie break to be played in match- Evens William Hill- (5/10) Both players involved had shocking results at the end of last season and Brands' poor form has continued into this year. Stakhovsky started this year okay, but the level of his opponents were hardly world class. This is shown through the man from Ukraine needing 2 tie breaks to beat Becker. I'm taking this bet on purely because of the German though. He seems to be one of those players, win or lose, in good form or bad, that will be involved in at least a couple of lenghy sets. If we look back to his last 2 slams, he was involved in 2 tie breaks in his defeat in the US open, and an incredible 8 in his matches at Wimbledon (at least 1 in each match) Stakhovsky is no stranger to the tie break form either which would indicate that a tie break could well be on the cards. They've played eachother twice before, where a tie break has been played in the first set on both ocassions. Decent price for the tie break here, considering the price for the overs is skinnier.

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Well done on Simon all who followed. Really good week for all I think, most profitable week as a whole that I can remember. Let's hope the form continues for the big one :hope

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Just wondering.... I'm a big follower of the 'other sports' thread especially Golf, Cricket and Darts e.t.c One thing I have noticed about Tennis threads is the lack of Outright picks, now thats not a criticism, you guys are very knowledgable and tip what you do very well, but I rarely see Outrights for tournaments, was hoping to follow a few for the slams this year but none about. Is there a reason you guys don't tip outrights? Is it harder in tennis than other seeded draw events like darts or snooker e.t.c cheers in advance :ok

Hey Perry, good to see you in the tennis thread as I know how well you guys get on in the darts and cricket especially. Tricky one to answer IMO. There are some outrights from time to time, know Atko picked two outright winners last week. With regards to the men, it's always likely to be between the main two, Rafa and Roger, but their odds are slim reflecting their dominance in the game. Last time I checked, both were less than 2/1 for the outright bet, which although it is a high possibility that one or the other will win, taking any player without gurarantee at that price is too slim for me, may be different for the others. Alternatively, many wouldn't bet on anybody else for the outright due to the dominance of the top two any IMO it is hard to look past Roger for the grand slam. Women is slightly more open. Know Clijsters is clear favourite but you often see that all the girls can beat eachother. Predicting the women's game is very tricky as I've found this week as the results are so topsy-turvy and things you wouldn't expect happen. No better example than the supposedly untouchable Clijsters letting her lead slip yesterday, and that was in a final. If you were taking an outright though, there are things you can consider which certainly wouldn't decrease the chances of the outright coming through. My two big things to consider would be the draw and form. Sounds obvious but this requires a lot of thought and again some prediction in itself. If you fancy a player, you can draw up their potential 'en route to final' list, which would specify their likely opponents. For example, if you wanted to take someone like Murray, his draw is very tough unfortunately. Wished that he had a pretty nice draw, but due to his slip down to world number 5, he is likely to have to play Soderling and Del Porto, and if he gets past this, Rafa in the semis, which is very tough. However, if this is kind and favourable to your selected player, and a decent price is given, it may be worth a shot. Also, form on the hard courts at the start of this season and also last season, is a necessity to consider. Chances are the player would have had a good start to the season, like Federer has had. Just a few things that hold me back from the outrights. Hope it helps but there may be some picks from others that you may find that you want to follow. Hope this was at least slightly helpful though. :)

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Not taking anything tonight, waiting for the big one of four to start. Good luck to all tonight though.

[Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Was considering taking Li at 50-1 before the Clijsters match and before the draw was made. She's actually got a decent draw and if she plays well could easily reach the semis or better but she's down to 25-1. Although I feel she has a chance, and feel Federer will get to the final at least, will hold back on the outrights and just concentrate on the individual matches.

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

Taking a futher 3 tonight and following others on Troicki, whilst still have Bartoli with a handicap which is still to run. Florian Mayer vs Potito Starace- Mayer -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Took this a little earlier at this price which has got a little shorter since. The way Mayer is playing and serving at the minute, should see him take care of the Italian today. Mayer impressively beat Del Porto without having to save any break points on serve and winning almost 60% of the total points. Starace on the other hand has had a pretty favourable draw. Faced Benneteau inwhat was his first match of the season and then beat Kubot who isn't the best singles player about. He needed the 3 sets in both though so he may also have some fatigue creeping into his game. Starace is very much a decent clay courter and fancy the German to go through here. Providing it's a comfortable victory for Mayer which it should be, the handicap is a low one which should be covered. Jesse Huta Galung vs Peter Polansky- Polansky to win- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Not sure I quite understand why Polansky is a slight underdog here. Polansky's form can be a bit indifferent but he achieved some good results last year on the hard court beating the likes of Melzer and Monaco at the US open. Lost to Mannarino last week 6-4 6-4 but as he has proved this week, he's in a bit of form at the minute. Polansky easily won his first qualifier, only losing 2 games in total so he should be fresh for the match. Galung is a guy I don't really understand. Only played one tournament on the hard court last season, mostly playing on the clay yet he didn't enter the French Open, but instead he tried for Wimbledon where he lost in the first round. Galung in fairness has started this season in decent fashion but had to concede a walkover in the semis. May have been just an attempt to get some rest before the qualifiers but this still could be a worry for him. Due to his results on the hard last season, and the experience of the US open, think this may be crucial for the Canadian and give him a slight edge to get through this one. Stephanie Cohen Aloro vs Jamie Hampton- Hampton to win- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Again I feel Hampton is too high in this one. She is a good youngster who is said to have a bright future in the game. Last year she had a lot of practice on the hard courts, playing many challenger events, winning 3 of them and in total winning 32 whilst only losing 8 matches, showing she is more than capable of stepping up to the next level. Had a poor result in Auckland losing to Brit Heather Watson but that left her with more prep to get ready for the qualifiers. Her opponent last year didn't even have to go through the qualifiers for the Aussie Open last year but since falling in the first round then, she only played a total of 3 matches on the outside hard courts, losing 2 of those. For most of last season she played very mediocre players and even then had mixed success. Just not convinced about her and think that Hampton has a really good shot here. Aloro doesn't deserve to be on a par with Hampton and Hampton will be completely up for this to try and make a big break this season, starting here.

WIN WIN WIN Quite happy with that, looks like most are doing well as well which is always good to see :ok

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

young' date= sweeting and manasieva treble at 4-6 williamhill 3 points this seems like a fairly safe bet. i'm not a fan of young in general but he seems to like austalia ...he got through qualifying here last year and made the second round. he walses through his first round match and he plays veteran italian clay courter brizzi in the second round who has never done anything on a hard court and was just lucky to face a poor opponent in lobkov in the first round of qualifying. Sweeting is surely one of the more talented players in the qualifiers...he's a fine ball striker..and though he has concentration difficulties and doesn't seem to have much of a plan b or court savy he still should be way too classy for french man reynet who beat the young australian in the first round but my friend saw that match and said it was a very poor standard. finally manasieva plays yet another one of the asian players in the draw that you probably wouldnt see in any othe other slams.... a lot of the european players haven't made the trip. manasieva is just a solid competitor with no real weapons but she plays tough on every point....she's kinda like a poor man's zahlavova-strycova. she's usually very reliable in the qualies untill she plays someone thats simply just better than her and judging by lungham's results that's certainly not the case.11 worth a few quid this accumulator..i reckon jaroslav pospisil to beat brezac at 8-13 the price is a bit short i know... but i really fancy him to win this. brezac is no great shakes and jaroslav pospisil, who is not to be confused with vasek pospisil who is useless, has shown some good form over the past few months. he also had a very good win against the promising jurgen zopp in the first round and i expect him to be good enough to take brezac out. I LIKE FISHY26'S TIPS ON POLANSKY AND HAMPTON THOUGH HAMPTON'S PRICES SEEMS A LITTLE TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE...LET'S HOPE NOT AS COHEN ALORO IS WELL AND TRULLY A SPENT FORCE....CAN'T EVEN WIN ON HER FAVOURITE CLAY. ANYWAY THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME OUTSIDER TIPS. 1. RIK de voest to beat blaz kavcic at 11-10 paddypowers 2.Nicolas massu to beat kravchuk at 5-4 powers 3.yevgeny korolev to beat dancevic at 6-5 powers And finally, sloane stephens will beat ungar at 4-7 with william hills and a kucova-llagosteres vives double should come in at 10-11 with powers also. good luck all.

25 but will let you off ;). Yeah as far as I can see, the Hampton price is that high due to Heather Watson beating her in straights a week back but as you say Cohen Aloro is very much a shadow of who she used to be.

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Is it televised or a live draw update anywhere that anyone is aware of?

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Just taken Troicki at 8/11 with Bet365 for the same handicap of 2.5, can't add much to what's been said, just that watching his match against Starace, any better player than the Italian would have beaten Mayer so feel Troicki if he serves like he's been doing, should cover the handicap.

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Ahhh damn you Pinnacle people, waiting for my probably higher handicap at a not so high price :eyes

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Still waiting on the handicap, probably start at 2.5 in most places and rise to 3.5 after people lump on Troicki.

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Yeah like you said today was a real gift of a price. Will have a look into them when they are out, in the meantime better do some reading for uni, christmas/darts/tennis holiday break is almost over :sad

[Tennis - 9-16 January]

Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Cheers comfortable in the end although watching Starace's coaches' face towards the end made up for the poor tennis. Interested to see the line on the Troicki handicap when it comes out, against any decent hard courter Mayer would have been punished in that first set.