harry_rag

“Most Weather” doesn’t have quite the same ring!

Week 12 already! Still slightly in front for the season if hardly smashing it, let's see what this week holds. Thoughts and bets below please.

Some more decent games this week for anyone so inclined!

No joy but small profit on the week so could be worse! Bring on week 12.

It's been a brutal weekend on the International footy front so you'll have to excuse an AT that at least pulled my nuts out of the fire in terms of the NFL betting! I noticed I had a "money back if loses" offer that I could use on the late game so went with Chase and Dobbins both to score a TD and Burrow >1.5 TD passes at 5.2. As it was I was looking at a loss with just Walker, Johnson and Downs scoring. I only just noticed the latter had scored so that feels like a bonus win as well! For the final game of the weekend I've gone with Lamb at 3.35 on the exchange. A bet for me at 9/4 with PP, I concur with the majority of the market that he should be under 2/1 rather than over. Had a BB freebie to use so gone with Houston win, Mixon and Collins TD and Stroud >1.5 TD passes at 5/1.

Well, if you take the cash out angle first we've already definitely decided that no-one should ever take a cash out offer from a bookie! I'd say that the wisdom still holds as a general rule. Mostly you should let the bet run as the cash out will be poor value and, if you must close out, you'd probably be better doing so on the exchange. If the original bet was good value, let it run. You'll make more money in the long run. So I'd probably only consider closing out if I thought the current price was significantly shorter than it should be. I've pondered the win v e/w thing over the years. Sometimes the place price and terms seems to offer real value but it's a pain that you can't bet place only on those terms without taking the less appealing win bet as well (either because you don't think the selection will go all the way or because you can get much better win odds on the exchange). My gut feel is that more often than not the e/w bet would return more if the selection placed than closing out a win only bet at that point. Might be worth tracking a real life example by capturing the opening prices and comparing the returns from backing the placed selection(s) e/w to laying off a win bet at that point.

And from the remaining games: at Chicago 12/5 Doubs at Miami 13/5 Mostert at LAC 5/2 Johnston and 7/2 Edwards

Been back round those games on current prices before I look at the remaining ones. A few have shortened or drifted slightly since I backed them but all still a bet at current prices. Added 16/5 Allen at NY Jets. Would add 5/2 Jennings at SF if I could get the price but not quite a bet at the best I can get.

McCann for Forest Green looks huge at 11/2 with 365 if you can get on. Scored in 6 of his 17 starts this season. Not sure I'd want to go any bigger than the next best 10/3, if that.

Nicolaescu 11/4 for Moldova another one that appeals. Easily the most likely scorer according to the market (twice as high a goals expectation as next lost likely). Again 22/1 the brace looks worth a couple of quid but 125/1 the 'trick is too short. Covered the anytime and brace doubles on him and Krstovic so a bumper payout if they both manage to find the net twice! Not often I get the chance to bother with such frippery as it's rare for me to have decent looking bets with the same firm at the same time but might as well buy a ticket when the opportunity presents itself.

Johnson not an 11/2 shot for me for Wales v Turkey. Can't get on with Paddy Poor but 6.6 matched on the exchange.

Krstovic an eye-catcher at 4/1 for Montenegro v Iceland. A point better than fair for me. Been profitable at club level this season, let's see if he can translate that to the International stage. Will chuck a couple of quid at the brace at 33/1. Might've put the hat trick up in the "100 Club" thread but computer says no to 250/1. Be gutted if it lands but got to stick to where the value is perceived to be!

A few bets from a first pass at the games priced up on the spreads so far. at NY Jets 8/5 Adams and 7/2 Downs at Detroit 11/8 Etienne at Tennessee 11/4 each Ridley and Hockenson at SF evens Walker

You could always clarify that 7 = 7/1 etc but I think anyone would naturally read 7 as being 6/1. The calc's easy enough obviously, it's just decimal price -1, add the 25% and add the 1 back on!

Well it looks like I was! You've thrown me by (I think) showing odds of 7/1 as 7 in your table. So I think your maths are probably right on that basis but no-one other than you would understand it. (7/1 represented as decimal odds is 8.) It would be clearer if you expressed the odds as the correct decimal price as we would all understand it. It just makes your formula to add the 25% slightly more fiddly. So am I right in saying you're actually getting 9.75 with the boost which follows the pattern of you getting something in the ballpark of fair odds (based on my take using exchange odds etc.)

Yes, I was querying the SBK odds being boosted from 7 to 8.75 or 4 to 5 etc. That’s not how it works with any other firm I know of as only the winnings are boosted. Applying a 25% boost I’d expect 7 to become 8.5 and 4 to become 4.75. I was just wondering if you’d set your calculator up correctly or were slightly overstating what the boosted SBK price would be.

I can see the logic (the bigger the gap between what you’re getting and the best available elsewhere the better). Does 7 really boost to 8.75? I’d have expected 8.5 based on what happens elsewhere as the boost is usually applied to the winnings so I’d have expected the 6 in 6/1 to be boosted to 7.5/1. I’m going to play the Jeremiah again here and say you’re still getting less than fair odds about this bet, even if you get 8.75. The 1-0 win for Turkey is backable at 8 on the exchange and your chosen cards line is around 1.2 or 1.25. Sticking a finger in the air I’d say that 9.6 is a ballpark fair price for the bet. if you’ve got the combination of a bookmaker that prices football markets fairly conservatively and applies high margin in their bet builders then you’re probably going to beat fair odds rarely even with the aid of a 25% boost. 365 and Hills would be a different matter (better prices and better BB margin). If you’re enjoying the fun angle of these bets and the interest in the games then fair enough, but on the evidence so far I’m sceptical about it showing a long term profit.

A blank last night, will try Pittas for Cyprus at 16/5. Looks the wrong side of 3/1 to me.

That’s the potential problem with the anytime angle in bet builders, some firms rarely offer close to best available price. SBK May well be one of them. Prices can vary hugely and, because there’s no “not to score” price, the firms don’t need to worry about creating an arb. I did create a calculator where you enter the best and worst available prices, it calculates the implied “not to score” prices and works out what the over or under round would be. The theory being that you might have a bet worth looking at where an “imaginary” arb exists. It could, of course, just mean that the firm who are shortest are taking the proverbial!

Retegui 3.8, Bellingham 6.4, Olise 2.8. Latter doubled with Muani at 11/2 to use a BB freebie.

No joy with the last bet, unfortunately it wasn't subject to a "settled as a winner if they score the first penalty in a shootout" offer! No bet in the thriller that is Armenia v Faroe Islands. Managed to miss winning bets on both Austria goalscorers because I was too busy arguing with the geezer who reckons it's impossible to make a profit from betting. How's that for irony!

No real value apparent in tonight's game so it would be a no-bet scenario but for having a freebie that needs to be used. Hurts and Ekeler both to score a TD at 11/2

Bet 49. Followed last post where I'd mistakenly labelled the voided bet at bet 41 but just noticed the one before was 48!

Bet 41 is Tolaj to score a hat trick at 160/1 for Port Vale v Wrexham. Value at 10/3 anytime, had a couple of quid on the brace at 28/1 and £1 on this to jolt this thread back into life! Landed 7/2 Di Maria and 28/1 the brace on Sunday, thought he might make me regret swerving the hat trick at 200/1 but luckily he declared on 2!

It's the big one! Port Vale v Wrexham in the FLT! Tolaj to score at 10/3. Most likely scorer and flagged as a system bet. Couple of quid on the brace at 28/1 and one on the hat trick at 160/1. Pretty much the only game in town!