harry_rag

Luton v Derby is the Friday night Championship game and there’s Motherwell v Kilmarnock in the SPL along with a few games lower down the ladder. There’s a league game in each of the Spanish, German and Italian top flights including the potentially high scoring encounter between Bayern and RB Leipzig. France, meanwhile, presses pause for Cup fixtures. We have 5 Premier League games on Saturday with Man City taking their woeful form to Villa in the early live game and Palace facing Arsenal again in the later one. The remaining 5 games are on Sunday with Spurs v Liverpool being the final act. Plenty of games to go at for anyone not involved in festivities or shopping. Let us know here if you pull any metaphorical crackers.

Flag a game that fits the bill and I’ll run it through the spreadsheet.

Chris Ramos 12/5 PP for Cadiz looks a decent bet to me, not bad at 21/10 365. Unfortunately I can't get close enough to 2/1 so no bet for me.

21/10 Sutton the closest to being a bet for me tonight, though would want 9/4 minimum (available price falls between "fair" odds and "back" odds). Will stick a small request up on the exchange, As Hills go 2/1 about him and have a BB boost I've gone Chargers win, Sutton TD and Nix interception at 10.37 for an interest.

Here's some random takes which hopefully make sense and add some value to the discussion! For me, the fair odds for this bet are at least 22.5, perhaps slightly higher. I've done the maths based on the exchange back price of 18.5 for 1-0 being fair (with 19.5 to lay it could end up at 19) and an 82% chance of the bookings line being covered (using a tried and trusted Kev P formula and taking the buy price of 50 as a guide for the bookings; the sell price of 46 is probably closer to the true value). To be fair to SBK, they're best price about all of the correct scores for 2 goals or less. Their correct score odds dutch to 2.79 for the unders versus their actual price of 2.86 and an exchange price of 2.98. If you were going to follow @Torque's idea of the most likely score, this would be a 2-1 game rather than a 1-0 game. 2-1 Spurs at 11 is their most likely win scoreline with 1-1 draw fav overall at 9.2. To support that notion (the shorter prices being closest to fair), if you add 25% to the SBK score odds and compare it to what you can get on the exchange, 1-1 comes out top at 1.2 x the exchange price while 2-1 is 1.18. 1-0 is just under 1.17. (As that ignores the cards bet it doesn't mean you're getting value but it at least means you're closer to fair odds.) My conclusion remains that this approach is getting you close to fair odds rather than clear value and that the long term expectation is around break even but we're going to need an awful lot of bets to prove me right or wrong! I agree with Torque that you'd probably improve your chances by backing the score that's favourite (either the shortest win score or maybe even the 1-1 where relevant). Whether there's a better "blind" angle to be had I don't know. My preferred approach is to build a BB around a leg that you believe to be a value bet in its own right which in my case means goalscorers where I flatter myself I have at least a marginal edge! Unfortunately SBK look to be a bit cautious when it comes to pricing that market.

Thanks @MCLARKE. For the avoidance of doubt, that's with SBK? (I think the odds may have moved slightly) And 21.6 is the decimal odds you're getting including the boost (not 21.6/1 which would be 22.6 as decimal odds) I was just interested in the odds offered for the chosen correct score and the cards line if backed as singles. Currently that's 17 and 1.13 so a straight multiplication plus boost would turn that into 23.76. Just going to stick some numbers in the spreadsheet and will report back after a brew and a biccie!

I'm not entirely convinced on that point but I've set up a spreadsheet to crunch the numbers a bit. I'll look at a Premier League game close to kick off when there's decent liquidity on the exchange. For now I've populated it with odds from Fulham v Southampton. I think a 25% bonus certainly puts you in the ballpark for fair odds but how much it takes you beyond that I'm not sure. If you dutch the best odds for all correct scores involving 2 goals or less you get a price for <2.5 goals that falls quite a bit short for best bookies odds in that market let alone the exchange. I'm curious to see how best price +25% compares to what you could get on the exchange anyway. Also don't forget that it's being done in a BB with a low total cards line so there's a few other factors impacting the potential value. You might not be getting best available price for the correct score You might be getting poor initial odds for the cards line The BB odds might take a lot of margin out of the combined bet @MCLARKE If it's not too much hassle, for the next few you post could you quote the single odds for the individual components, e.g. the score and the cards line. I'm interested to see how what you're offered compares to the straight multiplied odds. Your results have been suggesting otherwise (though with a degree of very hot and cold streaks) but I'm still of the opinion that this feels like a pretty much break even proposition long term from the few I've looked at.

I’d say just feel free to start the thread as you’ve done and post your thoughts and selections. Although the section is titled NBA it does say in the description that it’s for anything basketball related.

Yeah, can’t say I didn’t get a good run for my money and 1 from 2 not bad at the odds.

Odds on for now at least!

180s line easily covered in 3 games, 3 more ton checkouts required. Still a stretch but better than 4!

Be a miracle to come up short on the 180s but need 4 more 100+ checkouts which might be pushing it.

Wish I could say I trusted him for the hat trick tonight but the system did throw him up anytime at least, 3.75. Better for me if he’d spread them out across different games though!

Any sites where it’s easy to follow the scores and see the 100+ checkouts? I’m following the 180s easily enough but not the ton up c/o’s!

Agreed but don’t try saying that sentence into a microphone without a decent pop guard in place!

As to that sample of 14 games I’d say it’s too small to draw any conclusions from full stop but even more so without knowing how many times it was the fav/dog who did it and how many times the player who did it was losing, winning or drawing at the time.

Not a huge amount of study if I’m honest, pretty much going back to the same well!

Forgive the AT but stuck this on last night for an interest and a matched freebie. Any thoughts on whether it was a decent price or I got lucky and a bad bet won? Got to use the freebie tonight and might do same or similar.

Not priced up that far ahead (not up with the spread firms yet).

Is that the game on Friday?

Here we go with week 16 taking us through to the early hours of Christmas Eve. I guess there's an increasing number of teams with nothing much to play for now but I'd be lying if I said I had any clue who does and who doesn't! Might take a slightly more considered approach to the bets from here on in, though a system is a system when all's said and done.

Agreed. I wondered if you'd pick up on that! I was being more general but it's true that if you can get close enough to being a break even punter with singles then the L15 bonus can be enough to give you a positive expectation. Generally speaking doing multis will increase the losing punter's disadvantage but the bonus offsets that. I no doubt had a go at doing the maths somewhere back in the mists of time!

Bet Builder lands and Allen matched at 4.1 (Bowers fortunately not taken) so a better week and puts me just over a fiver in front for the season. Hardly spectacular but better than the alternative!

Mertens 33/20 and Yilmaz 41/20 in the next Turkish game, 11/1 the double. Both 28 to buy on the spreads so that suggests Yilmaz the better value of the two but Mertens still big enough to back.

2 from 4 (Pollard and Charbonnet) for a small profit. 2 decent prices I can't get on tonight (barring a match on the exchange). 3/1 Allen with 365 in one game and 11/5 Bowers Betway in the other. Got a freebie to use and gone Minnesota -7 with Jones and Jefferson both to score a TD at 4/1.