harry_rag

And in tonight's other game. Btts in the 1st half - Barca so far ahead here that they can be relatively relaxed, Dortmund with no real time for patience. Could be a high scoring game and might be out of Dortmund's reach as the game goes on. Can see both teams being on the scoresheet before the break. Dortmund >5.5 corners - as with Villa the onus is on them to attack and this doesn't seem too ambitious a line for them to cover Dortmund at least 10 booking points - a bit of a makeweight to get the bet over the 3 leg (qualifying for a boost) line but they should be good for at least one card even if this isn't a game where carnage is expected (bookings quoted at a fairly modest 34-38 points) Pays 6.31

Gone for a BB in the Villa/PSG game. Btts in the 2nd half - PSG can afford to sit back (though no surprise if they manage to kill the tie off early), Villa have to go for it at some point and have scored a high proportion of their goals after the break of late. Bit of an "educated gut" play but I like the prospect of an open 2nd half with goals at both ends. Villa >5.5 corners - that line should be covered with ease if Villa perform as expected. Biggest risk is a couple of early away goals that kill the tie and the home team's spirit. Watkins SoT - should merit a place in the starting line up and should easily register at least one shot that troubles the keeper Pays 6/1, more art than science but I fancy a BB for interest in each of the ties and that's my tilt at this one.

Couple of boosts with Sky Bet, 6/4 for Evanilson and Semenyo SoT and 12/1 for Evanilson and Muniz to score. Griezmann matched at 2.48 in Spain.

I've done Evanilson and Semenyo SoT at 6/4 with Sky Bet and also 12/1 for Evanilson and Muniz to score. Hopefully there's plenty of goalmouth activity and we're both happy come the end of the night!

If you multiply the exchange odds for that one (1.52 and 1.65) you get just over 2.5 so that would be a pass for me. Just a thought, the exchange prices are more likely to be closer to fair than bookie prices. It's going well enough for you anyway but, perhaps, it would be possible to squeeze a bit more juice out!

Matched. I think we're guaranteed at least one winner between us now!

Ok, can't just pass down my judgement on someone else's bets without offering anything up myself! Had a look at that game and fancy btts, asked for 2.04 in play to tease out the odds, will confirm if matched.

So why on earth bet on them not to score? Given that the only way you show a (tiny) profit with those bets is if they win and score at least twice why not just bet on that outcome, or on them on (say) the -1.5 handicap line? Fair play for adding a bit of reasoning to your selections but your opinion and your choice of bets are at odds (no pun intended) with one another. Why not go crazy and bet on them to win -1,5 at around 1.6 rather than potentially land a couple of 1/5 shots less the money lost on the 14/1 shot. It fascinates and baffles me! 😜

Void it is then! Not keen on Agger who is their most likely scorer now so will stick with the bet on Onughka.

There are one or two events other than the Majors to be fair! Also, given the extra places available these days (you love those) and the exchange markets (you love that too) I think it's offers plenty of opportunities for a willing data head but I accept that you've got to be into it enough to commit the time and effort required. It's horses (and golfers) for courses but I think it's at least as viable a betting sport as racing.

1st game for me today is the Danish game and I've gone early on Qamili at 23/10 with Uni (void if not starting). My fair odds are 2.92, 365 the only other firm going bigger than 2.7. Scored in 7 out of 18 starts. Also an "AA" bet in that the secondary pricing approach flags it as a bet as well. I'll chance Onughka at 29/20 for the away team. Scored in 7 of his 11 starts including 2 braces. System doesn't like him (thinks the price is just about fair) but he also scored in 6 of his last 7 starts last season. Some players are worth backing even when they appear to be "too short" and he might be one.

Too far off my radar really that game; no spreads, second tier in a "minor" country betting wise, season only just started and hardly any firms with prices. Quick look I'd have like Boudah if playing and priced (just noticed he's with a different club this season and scored yesterday so scratch that)!. Ali only 1 goal in 7 starts and 6 sub appearances last season but maybe he's the new main man. Can't even find last season's results for the away team on Soccerbase so I'll leave it there! (Mind you, possibly only 365 with prices in which case there's no point in me looking any further anyway.)

One quick note about this month so far; it's potentially one of the hardest months to have been betting on goalscorers since (my) records began. If you backed every player captured in my data blindly the ROI would be -25.34% versus an average of -4.8%. Only one month out of 35 has been worse. The player are averaging 0.288 goals per game which is the 3rd worst month (with the average being 0.395). It's similar for all metrics relating to whether a month is a hard or easy one to win in. Hopefully it will trend upwards slightly over the rest of the month.

It's certainly a potentially interesting angle though not an avenue I'll be going down or I'd be gone for weeks! It would be interesting to know the average age of all entrants for each event, the average age of the winners, top 10 etc and missed cut/made cut. That said, there are so many other metrics in golf that many of them will probably offer more value than age if you were building a model, but it would no doubt be worth including in the mix. Price would be interesting as well, which ones do the "likely lads" tend to do well in and which ones favour outsiders more. You need to convert @MCLARKE from all things four legged to all things four days/rounds!

Forgive the scrawl but this is my "heat map" when I'm taking a closer look at a game. (Be great if I knew how to automate this process!) Bearing in mind I look back over however many games it took a team to score their last 25 goals, the numbers across the top are as follow; Bournemouth scored 25 goals in their last 14 games, they scored in 12 of them and both scored in 10. For Fulham it's 26 in 16 and 13-11 for them scoring and btts. (I jot those numbers down in case I fancy a bet in the goals or results markets). I just tally up each player's goals, noting the pens with a "P" and barring goals scored in the same game. So the hot duo would be Evanilson with 6 goals in 5 of those 14 games including a brace and Muniz with 7 in 6 of those 16 games also including a brace. For what it's worth, looking at all starts by each player, Evanilson scored 10 goals in 9 out of 23 starts and Muniz 5 in 4 out of 12 starts. I don't do that for every game (no time on a typical Saturday or Sunday) but tend to do it more as we approach the end of the season (for finals and play off games etc.) There you go, a fascinating insight into my methods not that anyone really wanted one!

These are my "magic numbers" though I usually wait for the confirmed line ups. I'd only be looking at the top 5 home players and the top 2 away. Anyone priced below 9-12 I disregard and anyone at that price or 10-13 would have to be one of the top 2 for their team. From those prices I'd get fair odds of 2.71 for Evanilson, 3.31 for Semenyo or Muniz down to 4.37 for Ouattara. Semenyo and Muniz at 13/5 with PP are both better than fair but a whisker short of my desired price with margin added on top. I'd be tempted by the double though if I could get on with that firm!

Interesting. I don't consider the likelihood of goals in the game though I only look at players with at least a certain chance of scoring according to the market so, in a game likely to be very low scoring, there will probably be only 1 or 2 players I'd look at. When I look at stats I look back at more games than that so it explains why you back some players who don't make it onto my radar. If I'm looking at a particular player I tend to focus on the games they've started and see how many they scored in. If I'm looking at a team I tend to look back at who scored their last 25 goals to get a feel for who's hot or not. I'll post some examples for tonight's Premier League game.

I've bet on a few of these myself where they've been with firms I can get on with, results in a bit of a dip over the last few. I tend to check the shots on target ones against the exchange prices for the players in question and bet where the boost beats the multiplied exchange odds. I'd say that the singles are most likely to be value, the doubles are about 50/50 but I'm not sure I've ever seen a bet for 3 players where the price wasn't poor, even allowing for the "boost". Might be worth noting (or looking back) to see if the 3 player ones are best left alone. Just something I've observed from looking at the ones I've had the chance to bet on.

@monty63 I'd just carry on doing what you're doing and not worry about it too much. Your stake amounts are modest, you seem to bet on a lot of different sports. Small bets on various sports spread round a few firms, you'll hopefully be ok for a while yet. I suppose specialism does me no favours with some firms, picking them off in the anytime goalscorer market. My view is they should improve their approach to pricing rather than think "let's just stick any old price up and limit anyone who has the audacity to take advantage". To be fair, I've not opened many new accounts of late so most of the firms that limit me have been doing so for some time. I also make use of the exchange as much as possible, though how viable that is will depend on the markets you like to bet on (obviously no real use for bet builders etc.).

@LEE-GRAYS I think you explained previously how you decide which games you consider betting on but it would be good to have it in here for posterity. It's always interesting to see other approaches to betting on the same markets. Just an overview re the site(s) you use and the stats you look at. For me I'll look at any game where the spread firms are quoting player goal minutes which tends to confine me to the bigger leagues. I use those prices to narrow down which players I'm going to look at and as an input into my pricing approach. I will occasionally look at a game where there are no such prices, usually if I'm familiar with the teams in question. That tends to be the 2:30 Saturday Bundesliga games more than anything. My record on those bets probably suggests I should give up though (-33% ROI from 34 bets this year). If I recall you tend to look for games where you feel there's a decent prospect of goals from both teams.

Bournemouth v Fulham tonight to bring the weekend fixtures to a close. Also games in Spain, Italy, Denmark and Turkey among other European leagues. Let’s see if we can find a last winner or two.

A few weekend games tonight but here’s the midweek thread for Tuesday onwards. No doubt of the main focus, the quarter final second legs in the UEFA competitions. Very little of note apart from that; a League 2 game tomorrow and Newcastle v Palace on Wednesday. So, plenty of time for focussing on your chosen games and having a proper study. No excuse for not putting up a winning selection of bets! (If only it were that simple!)

Bet 67 and same odds the brace, similar anytime and “screamer”.

There’s a “without the leaders” market on the exchange if anyone fancied an interest in the chasing pack for the final round. Might be worth sticking a price up f there’s anyone you are keen on.

Couple matched on the exchange in Italy. Douvikas at 3.5 and Sanabria at 5.9.