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notoriouspunter

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  1. Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Saturday 24th November Some thoughts: Wilshere is back and I think he will improve but he had some very bad passes in midweek which made it difficult for arsenal to dominate Montpellier early on. Defensivly he looked very strong. Walcott will be out which forces Wenger to either play Chamberlain, who looked totally out of form, or Gervinho who just came back from injury. I thought Gervinho started the season very strong but the international break did cost him(and arsenal) big time. He is a big question mark for me. Tough Wenger will need one of Arshavin or Gervinho to step up.. The biggest + for me is that Kieran Gibbs is back. Im not sure if he will start but it makes absolutely sense cause Vermaelen isnt a left back. He doesnt link up very good with Podolski and doesnt provide threatening runs forward like Gibbs can. Gibbs is also better in moving back when he did move forward which will ensure that podolski can concentrate more on offense. This is also the key to arsenal playing tight at the back again. While Diaby is still missing the return of Sagna and Gibbs will give them the right balance again. One big concern for me is how players like Arteta will fare as he has seen plenty of game time lately. ------ I think Manchester was very weak vs. Aston Villa and it was a dead boring game without any depth until chicharito scored out of nowhere 3 goals. ---------- Vilal will probably sit back and try to outwork Arsenal. I think its really a question of how fit Arsenal will be. They posses many weapons at the moment and the link up between cazorla, wilshere and arteta could be too much for Villa who for example struggled with the fluidity of southhampton. They are playing very one dimensional. I think Arsenal will step up their defensive game again with Gibbs back and Villa wont trouble them much. Villa wil ltry to contain Arsenal with an organized defense but arsenals link up play and the dangers of Girourd and Podolski will eventually strike and arsenal will try to run out the game cause of their schedule lately. Villa looked very tired after a big effort in the first half vs. Man U. Same at Man City. ----- To summ it up: a) Will Arsenal be fit enough.(espacially Arteta, Wilshere-Ramsey possible in midfield?) b) will Oxlade chamberlain or Gervinho step up? c) will Gibbs play which will give Arsenal a more balanced left side offensivly and defensivly.

  2. Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Turner doubtfull Michael Turner is ‘touch and go’ “Michael took a knock in the same game so he will be touch and go but we are hopeful he will be okay. It is shoulder injury from a challenge and he is another one who hasn’t trained since the United game, but Russell Martin trained today, which is good, he had two days training so he is pushing on.” --- goalkeeper Ruddy had also some problems. If any of those two is missing then the improved backline will be hurt. Its really funny to see such a price on Everton. After some decent games they are always big favourites and will cost many punters. I think its rather interesting that many in everton camp are speaking about the tough games ahead but seem to forget about Norwich. With Fellaini missing and Neville out they miss their most important players besides Osman. There is much talk about their defense and I guess that they will try to tighten up as they lack the options going forward. In this case under 2,5 looks good. This game is made for Norwich and they troubled Everton in both fixtures last season. They will sit back and hope for everton loosing the ball to start the counter. Holt will pressure the back line as always like crazy. Everton will be pushed to win this game by their fans as expactations are high. This is the game norwich loves. Also if Moyes decides not to paly Distin and Gibson is not fit then they look very short for standards. I think Mirallas was very strong before his injury and he could posses a big threat to Norwich. Im not ready to back Norwich until Turner and Ruddy wil ltrain with the team and be match fit. Odds surely must go up on Everton? Norwich beat arsenal and man u. maybe some didnt realize their best player fellaini is missing? Holt to score @11/4 looks good too as he managed to score vs Everton last season in both games. I guess he will be eager to score again. He is the target man for Norwich and would probably take penaltys.

  3. Re: Group E > 22 November (FC Copenhagen, Molde, Steaua Buch't, VfB Stuttgart) With important right back Georgevski missing and Stuttgart missing defensive center Niedermeier and Tasci not 100% fit I can see goals i nthis game. Steau seems to conceede in romanian league but outguns. Stuttgart is offensive good but receive too. Both teams look better offensive then defensive. With steau not much too loose other then pleasing their fans and Stuttgart in need to at least get a point I see both teams to score or even over 2,5 goals.

  4. Re: Group C > 22 November (AEL Limassol, Borussia M, Fenerbahce, Marseille) This is what AEL coach said after last game a the weekend: "The most important of the game is that we got three points. We had some absences in today's game, we have many consecutive games in Cyprus and Europe, but the most important for me was the three points and we are still fighting for first place. " _____________ I think their focus is now clearly on their own league. They not only face Apoel next monday but also Anathosis the next saturday. 1st place in cyprus is now their goal and they cant afford in this tight situation for the most important next week any more absentees or tired players. I cant see them playing their best game with 100%. On the other hand we have Gladbach who is very motivated at home infront of full stadium to get 3 points. I expect Gladbach to pressure and go full force right from the start. They had enough time to recover from last bundesliga game and only play sunday vs weak Augsburg. I think they are fully concentrated and motivated on this game. I take the hc -2 as I think that they will be motivated infront of their fans to score even more goals and a weakened AEL squad with other things on their mind might loosen up as they did in Marseille where they lost 5:1. If you dont play on the edge in europe vs. motivated teams a big loss is not uncommon. normal odds are no value as either they win this with a clear win given a weak AEL squad or AEL will defend and gladbach will have problems converting which might even danger a straight win at ridcioulous odds hc -2 @ 3,3

  5. Re: Group C > 22 November (AEL Limassol, Borussia M, Fenerbahce, Marseille)

    Borrussia looks a stand out bet to me at 1.33. Still value in my opinion though has dropped from 1.36. Ael also have a defender suspended after getting a red card in the last game.
    Luuk de jong out. Gladbach dominated AEL in the reverse fixture but couldnt convert. 40 000 fans expected. Arrango is big hope for this game. Hanke isnt that much of a strong striker.. we need somehow info on cyprus team. any punters from cyprus or greece to check for squads and motivation? ___ google translate: "It's a difficult game. We have some injury problems but we have players to compete and fight for a positive outcome. We treat this game as an important game. There are friendly game for us. It's a big European game and just deal with it. It is difficult because we have three games this week but will try for the best result. " Asked about the plan to be followed, the Portuguese technician replied. "From my players will not ask for anything different. We ask that in our remaining games. To enter the stadium to enjoy the game and fight for the best. " AEL players represented at the press conference and the Dawson Jr. said. "It's a big game for us. As pointed out by our coach is a difficult game. But we came to play well and fight for a good result. We have good psychology and try to exploit it. We are focused only on this game and APOEL will deal after the game. We have some important absences but will play for the better. " ------------ Mathias Ntegkra, Isli Hindi, Dede Carvalho, Dawson Jr, Georges Monteiro, Marios Nicolaou, Stelios Parpas, Luciano Baby, Chris Dixon, Entmar Laserta, Paulo Sergio, Karlitos Soares, Rui Miguel, Michael Constantine, Orlando Sa, Christy Theophilus, Marco Airosa , Mafkon Araouzio Seems one or two players are missing but their names are misleading in google translator. Still looking at their schedule you can see that a rather tight squad had many games lately. ------ Should be a Gladbach win as AEL has no chance to qualify and an important game Monday while their squad seems to be stretched. I dont think they will fight 100% for everything with no chance to qualify. For better odds I take the hc-1 here as they might loosen up when trailing. Gladbach seems very determined in front of their fans(40 000 +)
  6. Re: Group J > 22 November (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham)

    4pts Lazio to beat Spurs 6/4 BetVictor I like Lazio here. Tottenham aren’t in good form going into this match and whatever happens they will know they will have a second chance at getting through at home to Panathinaikos in their final group match in 2 weeks time. In Mauro Zarate and Miroslav Klose the Italian side have goals in them and like most Italians are generally tight and measured at the back. Lazio match up well to Spurs to me and I see them winning this. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lazio-vs-tottenham-betting-lazio-can-confirm-their-place-in-the-knockout-stages-with-win-over-spurs
    Klose out and zarate to be said that he has not a big chance of playing. First game was very tight.
  7. Re: Group L > 22 November (FC Twente, Hannover 96, Helsingborgs, Levante)

    I will certainly take Levente at 2.2 with Stan James. Levente need the points here to qualify whilst Helsingborg are already eliminated according to the Ueffa website. According to my maths though they still have an outside chance to qualify if they win the last 2 games and other results go their way. So I am not sure if they are definately out yet or not. Either way the Swedish league season has now finished so Helsingborg players will probably be winding down and concentrating on their holidays until the season starts again in March. So I dont think they have much motivation for this game. Twente and Hannover were both priced around 1.8 come kick off away at Helsingborg. Levente are on or thereabouts same level as both of those sides so 2.2 looks value. Levente so far have rested some players for Europa league games but the players that come in are still strong and Levente are taking this competition seriousley because it is the first time they have played in european competition in their history.
    Its not a 100 % must win game. I wouldnt underestimate the swedes who played very good in every game. They were better vs. Levante and Hannover but some bad luck cost them.. Its the last highlight of their season and for many at least the last europe game in the next seasons probably. Hannover is already through and wont play like crazy in Levante last game. With two draws Levante is through. Gekas and Martins wont play. Atta and P Larsson are the missings for Helsingborg. both central backs. Swedes will for sure fight but maybe Levante above evens is great but no Martins is quiete a blow as he isnt eligable to play.
  8. Re: Group B > Nov 21st (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos)

    Arsenal - Montpellier Arsenal -1.5 2.10 bet365 Arsenal team is in very good mood after big win against local rivals Tottenham 5-2 in weekend. I think Arsenal will start the pressure form the start of the game against Montpellier. Wenger will take no risks to not win this game. Montpellier showed that they are not team for CL. Thay are in bad form in Liga 1 too(14 position). They travel to London without:Younes Belhanda (suspended), Hilton (groin), John Utaka (thigh), Benjamin Stambouli (viral infection) and Karim Aït-Fana (knee). Arsenal are without Fabianski, Walcott, Diaby, Rosicki and Santos. Because of that facts i think Arsenal win with margin. GL.
    Belhanda will play! was suspened in the league. Camara will probably miss out.
  9. Re: Group B > Nov 21st (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos) Hilton, regular defender for Montpellier, seems to be a big loss. He also was rather strong in the first fixture. Any french to confirm this? I think Arsenal played rather good start of the season and suddenly dropped after the international break in october. Also Girourd did take some time to settle in as the wingers cant score all the goals every game. Monpellier is fighting back in the league but has no chance of qualifying here. If they are down a goal they might break down I think arsenal wont stop going forward in this game as they have rgained confidence that they will build on here. Arsenal did crash in the past some teams in the cl here and I think its quiet possible that this might happen here again. Espacially with girourd finding the net lately. tough Arsenal still had problems vs tottenham until adebayor was sent off. What makes me also confident in a handicap bet is that scezny is abck in goal as Mannone always looked a bit shaky, espacially in organizing his defence.

  10. Re: Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur > Saturday 17th November This will be a game from penalty to penalty. Both teams have something to prove and both want to win it. Both have shaky defences. Both have good strikers. over 3,5 goals and Podolski to score. He loves these fast games where he has space. Adebayor was very sharp and always a threat vs chelsea. Defoe was in good form too. I can see both scoring. Even if AVB tries a more defensive approach either team scoring a first half goal will open this game up.

  11. Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Hodgson: “But it would be wrong of me, after doing one training session of 40 minutes in the driving rain with eight players, to say: ‘Yes this is a superstar in the making’. 8 players! I think this was the last training session before the one in stockholm. I guess some players just came to the team prior to the flight to sweden. This isnt a proper preparation for an international game. Swedish players are together since monday.

  12. Re: International Friendlies > 2012

    I saw the probable line-ups in the newspaper this morning and I do not like the Dutch squad at all. Schaken, van Rhijn and Kuyt are just not good enough for this level. Van der Vaart will be tired as usual. On the other hand, I saw Germany will line up Reus, Götze, Podolski and Müller. Altough Podolski is not in great form, these players will cause too much trouble for the Dutch defense in my opinion.
    I think the dutch defense line including de jong doesnt look good. They are all not in top form right now. Van Rhijn is promosing but he also had many games lately. Question is how ,otivated the german offense is. Im not so sure. tough the set up with reus a s the lone striker is a very fast line up. I expect to the dutch to take over the inative at home and germany with some chances to run at the slow dutch defense. On the other hand the dutch offense plays at a whole in germany and they will be eager to score. And I think they are also able vs. a german defense that is probably tired from the last weeks and the past has shown that these guys cocneded easily when not fully concentrated. So I expect a game where both offense lines wont work and run much defensivly which can mean a rather open game. Germany has with draxler , holtby and Schuerle motivated offensive potential on the bench while only c- players in the defense available. I think as there isnt anymore so much "hate" between teams that we might see a rather open and offensive game anjoying the football. I am thinking about a punt on germany as they dont look that bad despite their missings. over 2,5 and both teams to score look good too but odds are not fantastic.
  13. Re: International Friendlies > 2012 I think Sweden to win vs. England is a very good bet. Hc -1 could come in too. I will secure that with sweden not to loose. Odds did fall since it is clear who will not play for England tough I will take that chance given the circumstances anyway as i cant see a convincing england display here given their depelted squad that hasnt played much together. Sweden has the same squad that they had vs. germany. They should be very upbeat and ready to fight. Another factor is to show their best in their new stadium. This squad has plenty of playing time together. Ibrahimovic should be fully focused too as he is suspended in his club league. This is where england comes in. This squad is very depleted. I checked that most players never played together in their positions. A good portion wil lalso play again come saturday so I expect Hodgson to rotate some players during the game which wont help a squad that isnt already used to playing together. Gerrard seems to be the most important and stable player in this squad. Tough after his knee scare and a match on saturday that is a must win for liverpool I dont expect him to play the full game on 100%. Then come in the youngsters and players that dont play reguarly in their clubs These are mostly offensive players. Wellback and Sturridge will surely get some time and will be happy to prove themselves. But the sweden defensive isnt that bad Granqvist has very stable performances in serie a while Ollson had ok performances at West brom. The midfield is stable too. What they are missing abit is a second strong striker besides Ibrahimovic. What I go for in this match is that Sweden has a much bigger motivation for a strong showing vs the big name england. They historicly perform very well at home vs england. A new Stadium with a croof that can be closed surely will give a good atmosphere. England with this team isnt expected to win big and most talk seems to be about the youngster zaha wo is not sure if he plays for ivory coast or england as didier drogba called him... I expected ahighly motivated sweden team vs. an england team that will probalby switch and substitute around. Sweden to win @2,5 3/10 Sweden hc -1 @5,0 2/10 Ibrahimovic to score @ /2/10 both teams to score @1,85 4/10 Big bet Sweden not to loose @1,45 (all at my local bookie)

  14. Re: Group L > 8 November (FC Twente, Hannover 96, Helsingborgs, Levante) Anyone from sweden to give some insight into Helsingborg team? Hannover is always motivated in euro league infront of their home supporters. full stadium. They will give 100% for a win and good show. Their strikers are all scoring at the moment. Diouf in every game the last 5. They could trash Helsingborg if they have a good day. But they sometimes give away easy goals.. maybe hannover -1 or -2. Over 2,5 looks very good but odds bad. Over 3,5 a possibility too. Need info from swedish fans. how about helsingborgs defense? Will they sit back or play?

  15. Re: Group K > 8 November (B Leverkusen, Met'st Kharkiv, Rapid Vienna, Rosenborg) Leverkusen say they are tired. On the other hand all their offensive players scored in the last weeks. They rather win this and relax the last games. Tough a Wien team which isnt a threat as they miss espacially offensive players might give the temptation to Leverkusen to relax after 1:0 or 2:0. Not much spectataors expected in BAyer arena. Half of them probably vienna fans.. This could stil lend in a trashing if Rapid gives the game out of their hands cause nobody would blame them loosing 4:0 again with this squad. Rapid practicly has no chances to qualify. They must win but dont have the squad to win... Their most important offensive player Hofmann is missing.. If Bayer first team plays then hc -2 is a good choice.

  16. Re: Group H > Nov 7 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) Braga - Man U Over 2,5 and Both to score. Man U is outscoring their opponents while conceeding and I guess this will go on until vidic is back. Braga doesnt mind to have an open game and they are conceeding almost every game while beeing also most the time on the scoresheet. I expect a rather open game no matter which 11 Ferguson will field. The offensive players in second line are not goal shy and will try to prove themselves.

  17. Re: Group E > Nov 7 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) Juve to win hc -2 vs. Nordsjaelland. Nordsjaellands captain was injured and is not fully fit. Juve might miss Vucinic. Norsjaelland played a very euphoric game last time and worked hard to contain Juve. Juve was a bit surprised that they couldnt get hold of the ball but I expect them to have something to reduce Nordsjaelland ball possesion game this time around. After Nordsjalland scored the goal in the first game they where overrun by an awaken Juve side and had luck to not loose the game. I expect Juve to wear them at one point or the other down. Nordsjaelland did crumble vs. all their opponents in the last 10-20 minutes and I expect the same to happen here. The midweek Action might also start to pay back on a team that isnt that deep in quality on the bench. They had to invest too much to contain Juve in a game where Juve wasnt that awake until they were behind. Also Nordsjealland while sometimes fast on the counter didnt look dangerous in front of goal. Juve will be focused as they need the points and want also to avoid being embarassed in front of their own fans. I bet buffon betted today on a big win ;)

  18. Re: Group E > Nov 7 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) Shaktar to win vs. Chelsea @3,9 Shaktar to win with hc -1 vs chelsea @7 Over 2,5 goals Chelsea had major Problems vs. Shaktar weeks ago. Shaktar is a mismatch for chelsea in my opinion. They have what it takes to beat Chelsea. Hungry, fast and able to score attackers. Chelsea defense is very weakened with Cole missing. They are not stable at all and cocnede goals. Shaktar is a goal scoring machine. Their whole attack is prolific in front of goal. Shaktars defense line isnt world class but their whole organisation is much better then chelseas. Still Chelsea will score vs. Shaktar givin their offensive talent and motivation in front of their fans. Chelsea will have the same problem in defending pacy Shaktar attacks. I cant see how they will solve this problem. It might be even worse as they are destined to attack in front of their own fans. A very hard game for chelsea given the pressure. Onthe other hand Shaktar is full of confidence and will try to win this game.

  19. Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP)

    The biggest questions for Milan - Malaga game is: can Malaga score on San Siro? I believe they can't and I find great value in odds offered for Milan to win to nil.
    I dont want to get you off your bet but keep in mind Chievo, Atalanta, Sampdoria and Inter scored at san siro. Away from home they received a goal in every game the last 7 games..
  20. Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP) Can Malaga score here? Yes. And if so is milan stzrong enough to come back vs. a malaga squad that doesnt concede much? I dont understand how people can be so enthusiastic about this price on a team that just delivered for the last two games. Would it be a surprise if malaga takes a draw back home. 1:1 ? Dont think so. These Milan players never never delivered under high pressure. Just let two offensive players have a rather bad day and Milan will be in trouble. Defense is still not world class. Malaga can trouble them. Maybe malaga has payment problems but then the you want to go into next round and show off in cl league. I would not overate Malaga weekend performance as they surely had milan in their heads.

  21. Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Real Madrid vs Borrusia Dortmund Dortmund to win @7.0 and better. Over 2,5 goals @1,45 over 3,5 goals @2,1 Reus to score @4,15 Higuain to score @2,0 Real has big problems in defense. This was evident the last weeks and espacially in Dortmund. Dortmund will love this game as they can defend and go fast on the break at a real madrid team that is weak with opponents who go fast into offense from the ball-win. This is the game that Dortmund loves. Beeing underdog and countering on the break. I can see a similar game like the one in Dortmund a fortnight ago. Without Khedira Real lacks the working horse in the midfield. Real will be very motivated to go forward to get revenge for the loss. While this can work out with the players in their offense its what Dortmund is waiting for. Marco Reus is a clinical player infront of goal and he will give Real many problems in their shaky defense. Ronaldo looks very sharp and again in 100% top form. With the attacking talent in both sides and the how the game is layed out with motivation I can see some goals here. Dortmund has not much to loose and wont settle for a low loss or anything. While Real will go all out guns blazing to get an early goal while never beeing satisfied with a draw. I got the impression that both teams were not at their best at the weekend having this game in mind. It will be agreat game to enjoy and a dortmund win wouldnt be that surprising.

  22. Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Weak away team Valencia at high morale Bate I wouldn never touch espacially at these odds. Also Valencia doesnt need to win here at all. A point at Bate and win at home vs. them and they will be ok with it winning the direct matchup. I rather take the munich away win at handicap -1 and -2. Reason is that Lille isnt working good together at all while munich is playing like a machine in top form. They are very focused to win this game. Lille has so many problems and now their captain and several other defensive players are missing. If they trail then they will be exposed even more on the counter. The right back looks very weak vs Franck Ribery on paper. Ribery is in top form. On the other side the inexperienced left back plays vs. Mueller who is in top form too. Then you have kroos and Mandzukic who both are able to score too. Lille looks not good offensivly as they have players coming back from injury. To take soemthing from this game they need to score goals and Im not sure about that. Munich underestimated Bate which they wont do with lille. They are very focused and had an easy game at the weekend. BAyern munich -1 and -2 with very nice odds.

  23. Re: Group E > Oct 23 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) I think Shaktar can trouble Chelsea here. Chelsea looked for long parts of the Tottenham game very shaky in the defence. Pacy and tricky shaktar attackers will trouble them I think. On the other hand the quality in attack for chelsea is tremendous and good for for 1-3 goals out of the blue at any time(as seen vs. tottenham) Question is if both teams might be satisfied with a draw. Tough either team loosing will be in a very bad position already... But a team like Shaktar should be very motivated to show their self confidence in such a game.

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