notoriouspunter
-
Posts
316 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by notoriouspunter
-
-
Re: Champions League- 6th April @jens good idea but game could open up at the end also due to nothing to loose. I personally decided to back under 3,5 goals. This market I have the feeling will stay inplay for a long time. Nice to trade with this starting price.
-
Re: Champions League- 6th April Barca surely will do anything to not let arsenal come back into the game. They will do their possesion game as usual and the funny thing is that arsenal loves to play the possesion game , too. But they are not capable against barca. THis shows how strong barca is. And every player in barca dress has the ability to play this possesion game. Then there is messi who is in outstanding form and he will be the to go man in this game without ibra. this will give much space for bojan and pedro. I excpect that barca outplays arsenal in this game. Sure they have some gunners upfront who can be dangerous to any side but their chances will be limited today and they are not very famous for their conversion rate. Nothing wrong with the barca defense. Puyol is missing but as long as marquez stays calm there will be no problem. Silvestre and is much more a problem to his defense then the former not to speak of almunia. other thing is we have some pages here about that game with tendency to barca and i go along with this but the price is not good. Some better prices surely available on homewins at the weekend. I like the under alternative as the price is very nice and as long arsenal doesnt fall into pieces once they concede I can imagine a more relaxed passing game in the last half hour from barca with frustrated arsenal players.
-
Re: Lunatism's Series Of Interesting Bets (Super Experimental At This Stage!!!) Nice Ideas in this thread. I actually think that about a half of your selctions from the 13th were spot on. It doesn't matter that there was no hit. The hits will come in. It's all about the odds. But I bet you know that ;) It should be possible to gain out of every market high value odds. Maybe the bigger the market odds the more room for value(if you value them with a good system/nose behind you). Sure, a good strike/value ratio related to the market is the one thing that matters. As for the correct score market. Once you have the edge you are able to print money. Today it was already a +30 points day(sure you dont have them but would gain them if this day would be repeated with some very little variables in your favour). Nice that you share your picks. I will watch it as I think there is a good system working behind you. Your approach in sorting out the games with higher possibility of unexpected disasters is top of the world. I already included/excluded the variable of derby games into my calculations. When you extract them out you even can use them in a new calc. to make out of these variables profit when you find a market that fits to these variables. As for the cards I think there is much more in it as your tables show till now. there should be one or, more possible, some factors which give these fluctations. question is which :D Could be the referee which is totally underrated in most calculations. Sometimes it is hard to include such findings into the calculations. I often get strange decimals out of calculations, which dont seem to be useable in percantage probabilitys, but as soon as I can set them in relation to odds and outcome of a game they make in the greater picture sense. hope you stay some weeks with this project! Oh and please can you explain what "poisson" you guys mean? a virus in the calculations?
UEFA Champions League 20th / 21st April
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Champions League 20th / 21st April Anyone knows how long the three of boumsong, clerc and bodmer will be out? Asking because I wanna know if I should trade out of my Bayern to qualify or wait untill the game. If these 3 are out and Toulalan for sure too then it will be very difficult for lyon...