notoriouspunter
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Posts posted by notoriouspunter
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Re: Europa League > September 20
It is. you think it is a factor in these many goals?right could someone please tell me is this Youngboys pitch plastic or not ? :) -
Re: Europa League > September 20
Where do you read that they will rest players??? Dont think so. Strong lineup expected for Bilbao http://www.marca.com/eventos/marcador/futbol/2012_13/europa_league/1a_fase/jornada_1/grupo_i/ath_kir/Athletic Bilbao v Hapoel Kiryat Shmona 1pt Hapoel to win @ 19.5 Betfair Bilbao haven't looked great this season so far and it looks as if there going to rest a few players tonight. I don't think they'll quite know what to expect tonight but the Israelian league champions looked very good last season with a good, enthusiastic and young team who went on to win the league by 17 points and only losing 2 games in the process so they will want to impress tonight. I can see there being a few goals in this game and think Hapoel definitely have the potential to cause an upset. At the odds im taking them at i feel there a very good price as in these Europa league games alot can happen thats unexpected. -
Re: Champions League > September 18th For me main bet of the day is: Dortmund to beat Ajax Amsterdam. Everything looks good for Dortmund. Their form is steadily climbing. Götze back and in top form. Reus is strong too. Both didnt played that much together up till now. I somehow think that Klopp will play them now both from the start. Lewandowski scored his first goal. Blasikowski is in top form. The Dortmund midfield is good to go. Kehl not getting tired. Dortmund was already very euphoric in the alst european cup games but a bit too unexperienced and nervous at this level. Now 1 year later most of them play reguarly for their national teams and showed at the euro that they can stand the pressure. Ajax is missing Sighurtson and has to implement new player Poulsen, who might not be 100% fit to play 90 minutes. Also the whole squad seems not so used to international games as was Ajax in the past. Their name Ajax is big but they miss also player who They will play their game but It will be difficult vs. a fired up Dortmund squad and stadium. A defensiv stable Dortmund in front of their home crowd and attacking players in form? They want to prove that they are made for CL football. = Dortmund to win dortmund to beat the hc-1 dortmund to beat the hc-2 Over 2,5 goals. Im sure that if Dormtund doesnt win this then it will end up over 2,5 goals. Ajax trailing will open space for the fast Dortmund players upfront. would anyone be surprised over a 3:0 or 3:1 ? I think it will be an intense fun game with soem goals and a Dortmund win. Ajax isnt the team to defend like crazy. Dortmund will get some room and their palyers upfront are all in scoring form.
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Re: Champions League > September 18th
He might rest 3 players. But on the other hand if he rests Cazorla he will still get into play if it will be a dull affair come halftime. Wenger stated that he doesnt want to disturb his team chemistry. So I dont think that they will rest al ltheir key players. Tough if he rests Gervinho and Cazorla, who are both in top form, from the start then I'm very worried. Also brekaing up the back 4 with like 2 changes might destabilizie them. You are right with the 5 days rest. Better win this game and have amuch more easier game vs. Olympiakos in 2 weeks where you can rest some players. Both Cazorla and Podolski didnt play that much for their countrys. An upset in this game? Utaka important player offensiv missing for Montpellier. They leak goals. Well they maybe waited for the CL but normaly you prepare for the CL with a convincing win in your home league. Im going for Arsenal not to loose and the win.Mmm..not happy. I would guess he will certainly rest Cazorla as he has been their key man, Walcott to come in for Chamberlain, Ramsey for Coquelin perhaps. If he rests both Podolski and Cazorla I would say my bets are fcuked, Giroud doesn't seem to be up to speed with Arsenals style at all yet. Hardly a hectic schedule, Man City in 5 days then a whole week before playing Chelsea at home!? Will be playing kids in the league cup as usual, don't really understand making changes in key areas to a winning side, hopefully the changes aren't too drastic but that would certainly be the reason for the price rise.. -
Re: Champions League > September 18th Thats the reason: Arsenal Arsene Wenger has confirmed he will make a few changes for the visit to France, with a crammed schedule ahead of him. 'The core of the team will stay the same, with 7 or 8 players from Saturday still playing.' Tough the squad looks deep enough with quality. There is much talk with arsenal fans about resting players for upcoming games vs. city and chelsea. I fear they are with their minds already at this games.. If they take montpelleir lightly they wont win convincingly. If they are fully concentrated it should be a win.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8
Picture perfect. Wales will struggle badly in this group. Bale and wilsherre are not enough. wilshere was weak vs. Fellaini who absolutely bossed the midfield. Belgiums future is bright. Such an array of talent. Very strong set pieces. With a stable defense, counter attacking + dangerous set pieces you can go far in tourneys.Wales Belgium: Belgian players are in good form. Most of their top players play in the premier league. For example Hazard played a good game vs. right back C Gunter and drew a penalty vs. him and Hazard was the best man on the pitch while Gunter was one of the worst. Joe Allen had problems vs. Everton when Fellaini was his direct opponent. ""Fellaini and Dembele are the two best midfielders I came up against in the Premier League," said Allen." I think he means it. Edit: wilshere vs Everton: Jack Wilshere (off 69') - 5 One delicate chip over the Everton defence showcased his immense quality - but the youngster picked up a yellow card early in the game and was then overpowered by Marouane Fellaini. Marouane Fellaini - 8.5 Was the man who broke up Arsenal's fluent play time and again. Defended his back-line superbly and came out on top in his battle against Jack Wilshere and Alex Song. -> seems like he likes to play vs. these welsh guys while they dont enjoy it. Wales coach Coleman said after the loss vs. Bosnia that he needs more time with the players. Same said by Bale(that they need more time together). Tough now he faces the problem that most of his defensive players and striker Bellamy are missing. Also the 2nd choice keeper who isnt even 1st choice in his club is playing. So again no good preperation for them. Wales had big Problems defending set pieces vs. Bosnia and big problems closing the gap between midfield and defense. I cant see how they solved these problems given the absentees. Now they are up against strong set piece players. Vermaelen, Verthongen, Kompany, Lukaku have good presence in the penalty area while Hazard has the skill to deliver set pieces. While Belgians are underachievers I'm confident that this team has developed. They showed strong performances as a whole team vs. England and Netherlands. While Belgium is a divided land politcly and this effected teams in the past it seems these guys are not into this reasoning. I think its due to the Trainer Wilmots who is an excellent motivator who speaks the language of the players. (he was the last to score for belgium vs. Wales) They dont face a particulary strong team in Wales. They have Ramsey and Bale for this game but this is it. Many Wales players are known by the Belgians as they play vs. them in the league. In this group its vital to win this game for both teams. Belgium is sure motivated and they have the skills to beat Wales while Wales has high expactations on them while they dont possess the players that could fit this expectations, at least for this game. The young players coming into the squad and the 2nd divison players need a 1st class match. They probably never played in this formation/constellation and it will be hard for them to cope with the belgians. They might need to search for their luck in the offense. Allen, Ramsey and Bale are their players to watch but this makes them predictable. Belgium can flood the midfield waiting for their fast skillfull forwards to find some space. Nothing speaks for Belgium in my opinion and everything for belgium. This is a burden for them. but on the other hand look how players like Vermaelen and Kompany are leaders in their teams. Then you have a player like hazard who delivers from matchday one in the premier league. Verthongen comes into Tottenham is already one of their best players. Fellaini's presence on the pitch grows with every game. Dembele is confident on the ball and like the guy witsel must be boosted by his recent transfer. The atmosphere in Wales isnt euphoric at all as people moan about ticket prices and players who are not Welsh enough(playing for team GB, raised in eng). They prefer to watch Swansea or rugby. Bad performances like vs. Bosnia dont help at all. The players seemed nopt very concerned at all in after match reports. The Belgians have too much to offer for this depleted Wales squad. They are motivated, in form and capable of scoring goals. I can see them winning the hc -1 as Wales wont have anything to lose if they trail, while fast belgian wingers and attackers are capable to exploit space. Im very confident that Belgium will score against a Wales denfence that hasnt played in this constellation. The Welsh players are not in top form and have hardly any goals in them. I dont think that they can just sit back 90 minutes at home in Cardiff as their strenghts are more in the offense with a player like Bale. I also sense some reality problems. Just read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19488809 They talk about a golden generation and beeing in a good position to reach World cups while they miss half the squad and played some very bad games. Will Belgium chocke once again? Dont think so, there is some growth and uptrend. Their players are grown into stable premier league players + some free minded youngsters like De bruyne who started fantastic at his club Werder Bremen(on loan from chelsea). Pitch is in perfect condition for technical football (Hazard, Dembele). http://www.cardiffcityforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=91673 Weather will be be optimal for football. Belgium not to loose Belgium to win Belgium to beat the hc -1 -
Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8
So your reason is: belgium is worth 180 millions? If you want to advertise for your webpage then you failed big time. Can you give some more analysis?Here is one good match to catch :) 20:45 Wales - Belgium PICK:3+(over 2,5 goals) ODD:2,00-2,20 INFO: Thomas Vermaelen was not injured and will play against Wales, and then against the Croatian. Arsenal defender suffered only a minor injury in the championship match against Liverpool, nothing would have stopped and left without any qualifications at the beginning of the cycle for the World Cup in Brazil. Great news for the Belgians one additional reason to start winning. They have a great team-Belgian daily La Derniere Heure argues that the expected initial setup of the Belgian national football team worth around 180 million euros .. . It is the third most expensive starting lineup of all the world's national teams. In front are just the initial setup of Brazil and Portugal. A Belgian national team, in qualifying for the World Cup 2014th in Brazil, a lot of talk and money European clubs spent on bringing players : Eden Hazard and Axel Witsel cost is approximately 40 million euros for their clubs, Chelsea and Zenit of Saint Petersburg. Tottenham, however, for Moussa Dembelea paid 15 million pounds for the 10th of Jan Vertonghen Beligians boasts of the fact that its national team captain Vincent Kompany of Manchester City, and Thomas Vermaelen at Arsenal. however, after training on the eve of the first match of the Belgian A team in the qualifying group for the World Cup on Friday against Wales, hardly anybody wanted to talk about the potential of teams.But what is sure is that Belgium has stronger and better team than Wales! -
Re: World Cup 2014 » Qualification: Europe (UEFA)
I think you are right that the value is not good. A goal wouldnt be a drama as long as it is a convinving win. Tough backing that might still make sense. Both Starters in central defense will be eager to be not exposed at the back as it is not 100% clear who is in the first team. Germany also has plenty of possesion skilled players in their ranks. Also The faroer team doesnt have much goals in them. Fróði Benjaminsen is the only player who is in goalscoring form in league games. He also scored some goals international. Germany will take this game 100% serious playing probably with A - Team. The two games where faroes lost narrowly to germany mean not much. It was one of the worst german squads in the past 50 years. Interestingly Klose scored a goal. but Germany was known the last years to receive cheap goals when not 100% concentrated vs. smaller countrys. So there is some risk and I think its priced in. But too low odds to risk too much on something that isnt that important as winning a game. Fróði Benjaminsen the only guy who is in some goalscoring form with the faroers played midweek last week and is already 34.Just checked a few stats on this. 1. Germany's record against Faroes Last 2 meetings: Faroes 0 Germany 2 Germany 2 Faroes 1 2. Faroes away record against top class sides comparable to Germany (in competitive games) - Most recent game first Italy 5 Faroes 0 France 5 Faroes 0 Italy 3 Faroes 1 France 5 Faroes 0 France 3 Faroes 0 http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/faroe-islands/faroe-islands/matches/ You can see from the above that Faroes do score goals even against top sides away from home. I would say Germany will probably keep a clean sheet against Faroes, but it a lot less likely than against San Marino or Andorra. I don't think the bet is good value at 1.3 (if San Marino were the opponents then it might be). With clean sheets I think it's important to remember that the priority for a team is usually to win the game, not to keep a clean sheet. Germany would probably be happier with 5-1 than with 2-0 for example, but as long as they get a convincing win, they'll be pretty happy. Teams are often vulnerable after scoring a goal, and I've noticed that teams who have a big lead quite often concede 'meaningless' late goals. I think they sometimes relax a bit too much, let their guard down, and the losing team, knowing that they are going to lose anyway, lose their fear and attack. Just my thoughts. -
Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Wales Belgium: Belgian players are in good form. Most of their top players play in the premier league. For example Hazard played a good game vs. right back C Gunter and drew a penalty vs. him and Hazard was the best man on the pitch while Gunter was one of the worst. Joe Allen had problems vs. Everton when Fellaini was his direct opponent. ""Fellaini and Dembele are the two best midfielders I came up against in the Premier League," said Allen." I think he means it. Edit: wilshere vs Everton: Jack Wilshere (off 69') - 5 One delicate chip over the Everton defence showcased his immense quality - but the youngster picked up a yellow card early in the game and was then overpowered by Marouane Fellaini. Marouane Fellaini - 8.5 Was the man who broke up Arsenal's fluent play time and again. Defended his back-line superbly and came out on top in his battle against Jack Wilshere and Alex Song. -> seems like he likes to play vs. these welsh guys while they dont enjoy it. Wales coach Coleman said after the loss vs. Bosnia that he needs more time with the players. Same said by Bale(that they need more time together). Tough now he faces the problem that most of his defensive players and striker Bellamy are missing. Also the 2nd choice keeper who isnt even 1st choice in his club is playing. So again no good preperation for them. Wales had big Problems defending set pieces vs. Bosnia and big problems closing the gap between midfield and defense. I cant see how they solved these problems given the absentees. Now they are up against strong set piece players. Vermaelen, Verthongen, Kompany, Lukaku have good presence in the penalty area while Hazard has the skill to deliver set pieces. While Belgians are underachievers I'm confident that this team has developed. They showed strong performances as a whole team vs. England and Netherlands. While Belgium is a divided land politcly and this effected teams in the past it seems these guys are not into this reasoning. I think its due to the Trainer Wilmots who is an excellent motivator who speaks the language of the players. (he was the last to score for belgium vs. Wales) They dont face a particulary strong team in Wales. They have Ramsey and Bale for this game but this is it. Many Wales players are known by the Belgians as they play vs. them in the league. In this group its vital to win this game for both teams. Belgium is sure motivated and they have the skills to beat Wales while Wales has high expactations on them while they dont possess the players that could fit this expectations, at least for this game. The young players coming into the squad and the 2nd divison players need a 1st class match. They probably never played in this formation/constellation and it will be hard for them to cope with the belgians. They might need to search for their luck in the offense. Allen, Ramsey and Bale are their players to watch but this makes them predictable. Belgium can flood the midfield waiting for their fast skillfull forwards to find some space. Nothing speaks for Belgium in my opinion and everything for belgium. This is a burden for them. but on the other hand look how players like Vermaelen and Kompany are leaders in their teams. Then you have a player like hazard who delivers from matchday one in the premier league. Verthongen comes into Tottenham is already one of their best players. Fellaini's presence on the pitch grows with every game. Dembele is confident on the ball and like the guy witsel must be boosted by his recent transfer. The atmosphere in Wales isnt euphoric at all as people moan about ticket prices and players who are not Welsh enough(playing for team GB, raised in eng). They prefer to watch Swansea or rugby. Bad performances like vs. Bosnia dont help at all. The players seemed nopt very concerned at all in after match reports. The Belgians have too much to offer for this depleted Wales squad. They are motivated, in form and capable of scoring goals. I can see them winning the hc -1 as Wales wont have anything to lose if they trail, while fast belgian wingers and attackers are capable to exploit space. Im very confident that Belgium will score against a Wales denfence that hasnt played in this constellation. The Welsh players are not in top form and have hardly any goals in them. I dont think that they can just sit back 90 minutes at home in Cardiff as their strenghts are more in the offense with a player like Bale. I also sense some reality problems. Just read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19488809 They talk about a golden generation and beeing in a good position to reach World cups while they miss half the squad and played some very bad games. Will Belgium chocke once again? Dont think so, there is some growth and uptrend. Their players are grown into stable premier league players + some free minded youngsters like De bruyne who started fantastic at his club Werder Bremen(on loan from chelsea). Pitch is in perfect condition for technical football (Hazard, Dembele). http://www.cardiffcityforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=91673 Weather will be be optimal for football. Belgium not to loose Belgium to win Belgium to beat the hc -1
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Did you check the Wales team news? They seem to miss some people. Tough not 100% sure how important or if the replacement are able to replace them. Still a player like Bale can lift any team. Did you see Hazard vs. Chris Gunter ? I see a big matchup problem for Wales. Anyone from Wales with some info? Belgians how do you think about your left and right back? Seems like belgium has some problems there going forward.
Like I said, this is a pure NO BET match for me. Belgium are under heavy pressure and big expectations, and they're failing for years, so I have no intention to trust them in this high-tense and must-win situation.Maybe, just maybe Wales 1X could be an option if the price for Belgium win keeps dropping, otherwise I'm not touching this match. -
Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July
No surprises. I rate Prandelli very high. I think he knows something to stop this formation.Official Lineups Spain (4-3-3): Casillas; Arbeloa, Piqué, Ramos, Alba; Xavi, Busquets, Xabi Alonso; Silva, Fabregas, Iniesta Italy (4-3-1-2): Buffon; Abate, Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini; Pirlo, De Rossi, Marchisio; Montolivo; Cassano, Balotelli. Source: UEFA website -
Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July
Del Bosque said Xavi was substituted cause of tiredness. He also said he hopes they will all be fit again come matchday. Spain looked more fresh vs. Portugal in the extra time cause Portugal worked very hard and settled for the penalty shootout. They also had some players who had 50+ games this season. Portugal didnt have the means to substitute equal players in. Spain has that possibility as has italy to some degree.I'm not sure where this theory that Spain are tired has come from. :unsure -
Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July
Im thinking the same. Despite poor form they have enough quality to beat opposition who fears them or has not enough quality. Tough vs. Portugal, Italy and Croatia you could see how they lack the final touch and shot. I rewatched the Italy and Portugal game. While the possession stats let them look like dominating the game it actually were 50/50 encounters. In the first game they had some major problems with the italians. I think italy was better then spain that day but settled at some point for the draw. One thing is evident - Spain looks more and more fatigued from game to game. They lack that high tempo when pressing! -> this makes them vulnerable to the italians who are able to play long passes into the 2 strikers upfront. And they dont need that much time for that. Balotelli upfront gave Spain major headaches in the first game. Pique and especially Ramos are often pulled out of position by the two strikers. The italian midfield looks fresh enough to battle the spanish midfield. Weather will be around 28°C and dry. no rain since 2 days and tomorrow 0% chance of rain. Spain didnt looked that sharp in passing in the first 90 minutes vs. Portugal and a dry pitch might aid in this tomorrow. For example vs. france they had a good pitch and the ball rolled fluently. The odds are only this way cause spain has so much respect with the average population who bets. I can see italy fighting spain producing at least the same amount of chances. Italy looks improved to the first game while spain didnt make much more progress in their play and form(french were awfull, portugal didnt convert chances..). -Italy to win the euro. High enough to cover a 90 minute italy to win bet and italy to beat the -1 hc(look the odds ;) ). Also Balotelli to score. They cant focus totally on him. In hsi form I dont think that he will forgive a chance like in first game again. Balotelli scoring a brace gives me the trust that italy converts 1 or two of their chances.Spain are clearly suffering and have been all tournament, they haven't looked particularly good in any area - though admittedly they are that good that playing badly has been more than enough to see off all their other teams comfortably apart from Italy who they drew with and could have lost to. So things looking good for the Italians, plus the conditions on Sunday evening will suit them down to the ground - I hope they don't change to be honest! Spain always compain about the hot and dry conditions affecting the pitch and this will favour the Italian style. Has anybody else made theirs? I still kept back a small stake for in-play but 90% of my match budget is now up on these. Good luck everybody! -
Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July On fatigue and fitness Both played a extra time. Matches played and age: spain: ramos 56 matches age 26 arbeloa 46 matches age 29 piquet 36 matches age 25 alba 49 matches age 23 iniesta 52 matches age 28 alonso 60 matches age 30 xavi 56 matches age 32 silva 53 matches age 26 busquets 57 matches age 23 fabregas 52 matches age 25 torres 54 matches age 28 italy: barzagli 49 matches age 31 Bonucci 42 matches age 25 chiellini 45 matches age 27 Balzarreti 34 matches age 30 De rossi 36 matches age 28 Pirlo 46 matches age 33 Montolivo 39 matches age 27 Marchisio 45 matches age 26 Cassano 26 matches(had heart surgery) age 29 Balotteli 34 matches age 21 Diamanti 35 matches age 29 Motta 36 matches age 29 Abate 42 matches age 25 ________________________ Most italian players didnt participate in uefa cups. So they had less midweek matches. The Spanish players have almsot all played maximum amount of matches participating in CL and even the world club championship. The Italians clearly have an advantage here. While the italians are older then the spanish they are not too old that it would have an effect on their fitness. I say this is a big advantage. Sure its a final but spain did go all the way for 4 years now. I had the sense of them beeing very tired vs. Portugal. They looked a bit fresher in extra time due to substitutions and Portugal beeing totally tired. Spain didnt play that good passing. They over or underhit many vs. Portugal. Much cause of the portugal midfield pressure but italy is expected to give at least the same intensity. Adrnealin plays a role in a final but if you miss some percantage then it can cost you. Just comparing Xavi and Pirlo you can see a clear difference in fatigue levels. Xavi really looks tired. Would be good to hear some more opinions on this and how you guys think this influences the game? --------------- Prandelli: As Prandelli said yesterday: "We have improved because since the start we've been able to work on our physical fitness. Psychologically speaking we're a real side now. Del Bosque: "At the moment, yes, they are tired. They have played all season to their limits. But at the same time, they are used to the wear and tear of a whole season spent playing at the highest level. "Thus there is no reason to be excessively worried by this." hmmm .. "The players are tired. We're at breaking point," he admitted. "They are players who are used to this all season and I hope they get in shape for the final over these three days. "The training sessions will be light." Del Bosque’s team has an extra rest day over its opponent, something that will be appreciated as the Spanish coach admitted that he replaced Xavi Hernandez against Portugal because of fatigu Rafa Benitez: "This is the end of a long season for the players at this championship and all of them are tired but Italy's older players have the experience and organisation which allow them to succeed despite all the fatigue."
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Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July
I lost some with germany but Im confident italy will win. I was wrong with thinking italy is tired. They had a shorter season and italian league isnt that hard anymore. They looked very fit in the 2nd half vs germany, who did show some stamina problems too, having many players palying a long season. I did feel italy were not forced to go full tempo the whole game. The last 30 minutes they just shut the penalty are down. Spain had more rest but needed to go to a penalty shootout. They didnt look that fresh the last games. I feel spain getting more tired having the full season in their legs. This factor increases now with every game The italian substitutes looked fresh. Still apart from Balotelli the other guys didnt look that sharp in front of goal. But they do create the chances. Italy is in a clear uptrend. Spain team isnt converting that much either while looking more tired. Tough they have bigger potential to score. Both played already vs. each other and italy was clearly on the same level. Prandelli is a great coach and when he holds the balance in his team it might be the descicive factor. Del bosque has played many playing styles in various combination. While all work to some degree you get the feeling that there is the special touch missing. The italians will fight and contain the spaniards clocking the passing lanes. What didnt work in perfection till now for spain wont be working better vs. a italian team having the feel and belief how to stage an upset. I think the spanish are surprised facing italy again. They didnt seem to have a good game plan in the first match and italy is able to change formation flawlessly. Balotelli must feel great. He had soem great opportunities vs. spain and I expecting to shoot this time faster. I think spain has much respect for him. Italy sure believs in their chance. Maggio back for the right side. Jordi Alba will be pushed a bit back with Cassano filling the lines and Maggio going forward. De Rossi is now available in the midfield to track Xavi, who looks tired Rossi he struggled with a injury (but maybe they just said so as he would have been substituted anyway..he looked like a real fighter vs ger.). Italy pressed germany high up the pitch and If they can maintain that vs spain then will hold spain back from their penalty area forcing spain to move more up and down the pitch. Italy pressing these rather tired players they will end up with some fine balls for Balotelli and Cassano who move the opposition defense out of position with their movements. Its kind of crazy as italy is facing the same situation like in 2006. Tough, they sure like that. Italian highlight of the season is sunday. Spains players had already their highlight with the champions league matches beeing prepared for them. Italy straight win or italy to qualify. Odds are juicy. Tough, it coudl well end 1:0 spain or with a draw at fulltime. Halftime draw is also a good possiblitie.Yep it's the hardest to call or profit from for sure - but that is half the charm if you are a gambler the challenge is to carry on making profit regardless of 'how hard the game is'. Some games I do refrain for betting on, there has been 4 so far since the groups started but not the final! Lol that would be cowardly for me, I have backed Italy all the way and now I back them again here :) It is just a case of finding the smart bets, which is the challenge for me! If we were smart we would all refrain, this is one of those games where the background and stats will count for very little. Since it is the final though I want to try to end the campaign on a high and I am willing to risk a little bit to do that. that said if I was having a bad run perhaps I wouldn't be so confident lol -
Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 another surprise by Loew. Kroos means more stability. Germany has now two very efficient passing players in Kroos and Oezil. Lets see how italians react to that change. Im sure Oezil and Kroos will take over covering passes to Pirlo on their sides. Kroos is very dangerous playing flanks from the sides. Assistant trainer Flick: Hansi Flick: "There are tactical considerations behind the changes. We want to bring the midfield into our hands. By Kroos, we expect that he won two fights and quickly switch to the offensive. We want to play confidently forward and defeat the enemy. When Schweinsteiger everything is fine, he is 100 percent fit. "
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Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27
I actually thought Portugal looked more tired towards the end' date=' and Spain played their best football at the end of the match and in extra time. Portugal was leaving too much space for the Spanish to play in.[/quote'] Portugal obviously did run more to track the passing and they did it very well. Tough, spain looked very sloppy and tired in the first 90 minutes. Then Xavi was substituted and the fresh Pedro and Navas played. Xavi didnt seem to be able to have a great impact. -
Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 I think spain was very much fatigued having 2 days less to rest while portugal looked fresher for 90 minutes. Did anyone see the same? I think the rest is really an issue.
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Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Anyone knows if abate and de rossi trained today fully? cant find anything.. They are "running" is the news. Prandelli on the fatigue: Even so, Prandelli is not worried about possible fatigue being an issue, despite Germany coach Joachim Loew insisting his side will try to up the tempo in the second period to test Italy's legs. "We're in good shape mentally and physically. We can't afford negative thoughts, the adrenaline will make the fatigue disappear." De Rossi: "I don't just have a back problem, I also have other little niggles. But in games such as this everyone wants to be there at all costs, even though we can't field 23 players." He is a fighter but I dont think that he will be as fit as his counterparts Schweinsteiger and espacially Khedira. Chiellini is fit to play says his brother.. So Italy is clearly tired. -> Germany is fresh. Germanys coach said they will play high tempo. They certainly are able to do so. Some of their players were well rested vs. Greeks and the effort was not that hard as the italians vs. england. Italy says they will attack. I dont know what to make of this.. Maybe we will see some goals. tough its the semis.. I dont think it goes to overtime as germany knows they can have an advantage over italy while italy would certainly not be happy to play again extra time. Germany has much more possiblities to substitute fresh players in.
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Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 Kind of as expected - tight. Both had some good chances. Played the spain 1:0 win :( . congrats to portugal + 0,5 backers. Spain didnt improve much. Portugal was as strong as vs. germany but their problems were clear. No creative midfield and Nani and Ronaldo on their own. Coentrao did play very well. Spain had major problems and didnt even come into their tiki taka rythmn. They needed to play a extra time + penaltys. I felt that they were as a whole team tired. Xavi is tired and out of form. Tought 2-3 players would step up but nada. Spain will beg to play italy instead of germany with their fast and more fit wingers.
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Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 wrong thread
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Re: Germany v Italy > June 28
I never said that. I explained my pick in detail and try to find out why so many favour Portugal. I see that you have much statistical analysis to your bets. I try to get more into the details on the pitch and what I observe and think will happen come match time and not what has happened 5 years ago.. For me The 04 game has like 1% influence on this game. 04 Spain was a completely different side playing much different football. You can compare it with 2010 and there spain shut ronaldo out. They had some problems at the start but once they hit their gear Portugal was shut down. They evolved their passing game even more with playing 4-6 and Portugal will have problems with it as their defense needs to track much more players and movements while their midfield isnt creative enough to go forward exposing their back watching how Nani and Ronaldo play 1 vs 3. A game will be decided by tactics, form and quality(etc..) but not on games that are 4 or more years old. But well maybe we have just different approaches. I tried the statistics betting years ago and it only lead to minor profit. Once I looked deeper into the games and matchups I just started to pick the winners no matter if value or not.(it evens out) ____________________- The team who needs to step up their game is Portugal. Spain and Germany are the teams to beat. Portugal failed to win vs. Germany and was 75 minutes dominated not beeing able to do anything for the attack. Then they were awfull in defense vs. denmark and holland was the worst defensive side in the tournament that played portugal right into the cards. Vs. czechs they didnt looked that stable from the start of the game and had problems breaking them down. Only Ronaldo shuffling to the striker role won the game vs a czech side with not much talent upfront. On the other hand Spain settled for a draw vs. strong italy knowing it will be enough. Then they dominated a strong croatian side and trashed ireland. France had absolutely no chance vs. Spain. So for me while their play doesnt look pretty spain is in good form and dominating every opponent. They conceeded only one goal. Spain sure has some more in them but I doubt that Portugal can play much better then they did vs. germany and in the other games. The danger at this stage is that all teams are good and no one can be underestiamted. But the advantage for us is that we have more info about how the teams approach the games. And clearly there is a big advantage for Spain watching the last matches. I broke it tacticly already down in the other posts. All in all while their midfield is their strength in the defense when against the ball its their weakness when attacking. Lacking creativity and offensive movement. I'm today sure that spain will qualify and opt for a narrow win for Spain as they have the defensive power to bring such a game over time. Spain 1:0 spain to qualify spain to win halftime draw obviously wrong threa,Well it's all there in back and white on my website... You can have a look yourself if you like. But I see where you are going with this point of seeing how the game will pan out. I just think from the first game onwards, the nearer you get to the final the games become less and less predictable in this way so it then becomes more about who wants it more (with the players I mean). Knockout tournaments rarely favour "the best" footballing side as I said before. All you have to do is look at the past winners for this. Spain may have been the "best" footballing side for absolutely ages but have only ever won 2 tournaments. Italy have won far more without being the better side, and in club football we often see this to be the case too (Porto, Chelsea, Liverpool winning the Champions League). When we look into the results of these past competitions, and try to figure out where the best value bets were - so we can find the best value bets in todays competition; we can see that the early group stage results in general are far easier to predict than the later stages. In general I find that the 'underdog' team produces another 10-20% in performance from their players whereas the 'favourite' seems to underestimate their opponents. And we see this trend throughout recorded football history. So all these people just assuming that Spain will win because they are "the better side" should really delve deeper into this competitions history, and the teams who have won it in past years. Then you will see that it is not just as cut and dried as best team wins. Spain of course cannot be written off but as I see it, they will have to play extremely well and produce a top performance to beat Portugal who are far more likely to produce a winning performance at this stage as they did in Euro2004 when nobody expected them to keep a clean sheet and score 1 against Spain. -
Re: Germany v Italy > June 28
Sure ;). Its just my job to ask questions to get nearer to the point where I see how the game pans out. This works best with critique and discussion. What I meant was that greeks had 1 chance and made two goal. Italy had 20 chances and made zero goals. Its no surprise cause they lack a regular goalscorer. For me Balotelli isnt mentally ready for this tourney. He needs another 2-4 years to be a consistent player. Russians have an awfull mentality on the pitch. You wont get that with germany. And germany isnt underestimating italy at all. They are all focused about this game denying any question about spain. If this game goes to extra time then it will be germans game. They have much more opportunities to substitute fresh players in who are the same level or even better. Italy wont be fresh enough to play the same tempo in extra that they played 3 days ago... no way.Well I did! I had both teams to score at 6/4, Salpingidis to score 16/1 and Germany to win 2-1 + Salpingidis which lost but was oh so nearly a big big winner. Made plenty profit there too... I don't just pull these out of a bag of sawdust you know, if's and but's is what betting is about - you can never 100% predict anything at all, so the best we can hope for is to read the stats apply that to the recent form and conditions, and try to make the best calls we can usign the best value odds we can get. Then see what happens. To be honest everybody has this familiar love in with Spain/Germany and I myself have backed Germany all the way so far - but this time I just feel they have an even chance to win draw or lose, and if they draw and it goes to pens then it's anybodies game. Italy should never be underestimated, that's just my view. People underestimated Russia against the Czechs and I got big wins there because the bookies did it too. And again with England getting the 0-0, daft odds considering how likely that one was... Now I think Portugal and Italy both to go through, though they are not currently in vogue against the illustrious but somewhat dull Spanish and the effective but lacklustre Germans are both value bets with a decent chance of a return. Just my view of course. -
Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27
Hugo Almeida is Postigas confirmed replacement. He isnt much better or worser then him. But I rate Almeida less of a playing striker then Postiga. Ggood observation with Ronaldo beeing overcritical with his mates. He sets the same standard upon them as on him. He sure hasnt a guy like Oezil in Madrid who feeds him with passes. These Situations are often dangerous as he doesnt track back when complaining. These situationes will happen rather often with Spain beeing fast in pressing for the ball.notoriouspuntermade a very good point before of how often Nani and Ronaldo are given the ball to attack the flanks alone and how this will be emphasised in this game because of the extra duties the middle 3 will have. I can see the two wingers in isolation for long periods here. it's ok vs czech republic because they have less risk of being punished for losing possession and they can run at lesser defenders and are more likely of beating them. The difference is Spain hunt in packs running at the defense as a unit with great understanding of where each other are. Ronaldo has shown at times frustration that his team mates aren't as good as him when a pass doesn't reach him or a move goes wrong. He can't show this negative body language/attitude here because it will bring his team mates down. If portugal rely on counter attacks with the speed of Ronaldo and Nani then they will always be outnumbered by the Spanish defenders who are quick to shut them down. Nani and CR need support of their team as they get at RM and MU, but reading these posts seems that the rest will be sitting back closing down space and too far away to help. Contrarily with the Spain possession approach the bodies are there in the final 3rd for Spain already waiting for the through ball so this won't be an issue as there is always some one not far away waiting to run onto a pass. The replacement for Postiga will be Viana if I remember they name correctly from another site.. I know nothing of him, if some one would be good enough to shed some light.
He can keep the ball but he doesnt create as much like Deco in his best days running adn attacking with the ball. Mereiles the same. They are not that great going forward creating chances and especially Mereiles often gets in some good positions but doesnt have a very calm and concentrated shot. Deco was a guy who could score and give a pinpoint through ball several times a game. I dont see that creativity in the 3 midfielders together. A guy like Modric is a level better like them on the ball.Moutinho is a quality midifeld player that can keep the ball.
Europa League > September 20
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: Europa League > September 20
Aduriz is a very strong and in form goal scorer. Very strong with set pieces. Llorente on the bench. He will for sure get some playing time. Atletic need him and they cheered for his goal away(he scored after 60 seconds in) so I expect that they are friendly towards him.