notoriouspunter
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Posts posted by notoriouspunter
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Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December
Wenger said he talked much with henry and is afast learner...well, lol I think thats true..These goals and performance was a henry performance with a touch Walcott
Sick, just sick! -
Re: Everton v Chelsea > Sun 31st December
haha sounds a bit like betting agaisnt own team just to have a laugh anyway ;) seriously.. The Question is what their directive will be.. If they run at chelsea, while Gibson is maybe out, then playing hitzelsberger, they might be caught out one some occasions as Chelsea is expected to be fast through the middle. I say it again..this is their biggest test this season. Coleman as of Rio will play(source?) A big factor is Fellaini. Yeah they won two without Fellaini but not without problems. Fellaini is very important for them in the big games. Just look at the games the past 2 years with Fellaini involved when facing good opposition. He was crucial! Look at the Man city game or arsenal game. He absolutely bossed the pitch. His presence will be missed. Still I think this will be decided over the left everton side. If baines and Pienaar create then Chelsea will be in trouble. If they contain them, keeping them busy, and manage to push forward on this side with Oscar or Moses then Everton might be stiffled. Any takers on that? If Gibson and Coleman are not 100% fit then this will be one of the weakest Everton teams in the last years while Chelsea is in a very good form. Hitzelsberger is way past his prime and couldnt get a job in Bundesliga at all. They are defensivly much better organized and have enough players to trouble Everton who conceeds in almost every match.. Seriously guys you cant just bet on the crowd atmosphere. I know it has its power but still you need players to deliver. Everton will lose some time at home! Against whom? chelseas defense look rather strong and Benitez managed to stabilize them. I can see Cahill and Ivanovic stopping them. I think anichebe isnt expected to deliver every game he plays and Jelavic seems a bit unlucky and not satisfied with himself..struggling..With our strongest first XI to pick from I'd be disappointed with a draw against Chelsea but with the players we have out they will just have too much for us. It's not 100% but the team is meant to be Howard, Jags, Heitinga, Distin, Baines, Naismith, Osman, Hitz, Pienaar, Anichebe, Jelavic. That team will not get a win against Chelsea. Howard is a liability. Jagielka isn't a right-back. Heitinga has been awful all season and his agent came out yesterday saying he is looking for a move. Naismith isn't good enough on the right, meaning our attacking down the right side will be non-existent. Hitzelsperger has seen better days, he is too slow and struggles to see out games. Anichebe isn't on fire at all and Jelavic looks in dire need of a rest. It's a very slow team. Chelsea will find it easy to go through that midfield, usually our strongest area. I just can't see where the goals are going to come from and we won't be able to keep a clean sheet against them. That is if that is the team of course, the lad is usually right though he did get it wrong last week. -
Re: Manchester City v Stoke City > Tue 1st January Stoke had enormous energy invested in the last two games. I can see them getting a bit out of steam as they dotn have the ability to shuffle much. Nzonzi is a big time loss. He is the guy who holds the balance together in this team. Without him they will have problems. Stoke was a horrible away team last years but managed to receive only one goal in the last 4 games away. Tevez Aguero Silva and Dzeko one time all together on the pitch?(as far as I remember..) odds are useless..
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Re: Swansea City v Aston Villa > Tue 1st January
If Michu is back, what Swansea is considering, it might be of more value to take a hc. I mean how on earth can Villa stop this trend? I think they will get more shaky and shaky. Some managers say in these situations it is good to play fast again. I think for Villa they lost some big time confidence. They should have hit back today to regain some compusure. All that might help them now is a all or nothing attitude until some key players are back. Atm they look like the dear in the lights. Swansea look rock solid. They have a clear game plan and will exucete this plan vs. anyone. I might wait until its clear that Michu will play and I guess whne this is a given soem villa defenders will have a bad sleep..I had to take Swansea @ 1.66 after watching Villa today. I had a bet on Wigan, and they were overpriced at 3.3 for sure. Villa were awful, and you must be awful if you lose by 3 goals to Wigan at home. Defensively, they are all over the place, they lack creativity in midfield, and lack up front aswell, very reliant on Benteke. Swansea are a really organised unit, that can score goals. They had a great win at Fulham today, and will see this as an excellent opportunity to get another win on the board, as they could not play Villa at a better time. Danny Graham came in for Michu today and was excellent and they drew with Man United at home not so long ago. Villa have conceded 15 goals in their last 3 games, Swansea are good defensively of late, and i find it hard to see Villa getting a result there. In this fixture last year, it finished 0-0, but Villa are far worse now than they were last year. *Swansea WIN @ 1.66 Betfair* -
Re: Everton v Chelsea > Sun 31st December
too much emotion from you dont you think? how.do you.think the game will play out?;-)Why doesnt SAF like rooney playing at goodison, is it because he supported them as a boy, or is it because he gets the height of abuse? And to which he knows he wont get the 100% rooney turning up. Will he play RVP at Arsenal on the 27th April...I doubt it. Players who are getting 90 mins constant abuse, they need to be deaf or the skin of a elephant not to react, and concentrate on the game, The closest I have ever seen is Steve Gerard when he went to Man utd, and EFC....But there aint that many around.. And Fernando Tores is most certainly not one of them. -
Re: Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January
newcastle will score.again vs them. castle will soon get their win. they are in a clear uptrend..at least offensivly.I must have dreamt...Aston Villa, SwanseaPlayed both of the park..., BATTERED Fulham(most 1 sided game you ever seen), Mancity were very lucky...WIGAN, two blatent goal line decisions went against them.... Are you a bookie in disguise? Fellani back, Coleman back two definate..Mirralas.. a strong possibilty... YES THEY SHOULD BE FAVOURITES. -
Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December
As expected. damn the first half newcastle goal. obvious fault with the odds which were evens. arsenal when everything clicks can crush anyone. cazorla weak and his comments not liking playing arounf t his time affected his game directly. i expect another weak performance nrew years day. cheers damn lurkers! ;-)Bet of the week for me! Finally Arsenal has only one player missing in Diaby. They have a nearly full squad available. The key is the midfield starting to click and Wilshere having enough play and training time with Arteta and Cazorla. Wilshere coming into form is crucial for arsenal. He gives them another dimension going forward and more time on the ball. Arsenal are now much better in posession which gives their strikers and wingers more time to roam behind the defenses. In the wake of Wilshere coming into form we also see Oxlade Chamberlain increasing his form. He fears not taking on defenders and looks very fit and concentrated. With Cazorla, Podolski and Walcott lately on the scoresheet and all 3 of them fit it seems Arsenal is starting to click together. Cazorla states how he is getting better and better everyday combining with Wilshere and Arteta. Infact Cazorla struggled a bit when Wilshere, with whom he didnt train or play much together, came into the team. With Sagna getting into a very good form after his injury and Gibbs stabilizing his performance Arsenal has two potent guys on both sides to help overrun the wingers Ox and Podolski. This was missing big time a while ago when both were either injured or not in form leaving gaps in the teams balance. They also have Rosicky and Girourd available as sub options. Girourd is also the only player, besides gervinho, not looking good atm. Tough he still can have an impact as a substitute as from time to time he managed a good performance. So it seems Arsenal has found a balance in their team and all key players are fit and in form. Add to that they had a full week rest to prepare for this match. They have 2 days off after this game before facing Southampton which will have the same rest time. On the other hand Newcastle is struggling big time with the depthness of their squad. The euro league and various injurys did cost them a load of energy. Then they had a game vs. Man u midweek were they had to give their all after leading eventually loosing out to an injury time goal. Newcastle falling apart the last 20 minutes is aclear sign of fatigue creeping in at the end of the year. Now they miss a good fighter in Williamson who is a one of the better performing players in the Newcastle defence. They also miss Anita who looked to pick up some form. They have Tiote back but their midfield now looks short on options as perch will probably move into the centre back line. So much will rest on the shoulders of Bigirimana who doesnt look that good tacticly and has not much experience and will surely suffer vs. Arteta and Wilshere. Marvreaux looked good offensivly vs. Man U but he seems a bit weak and will have problems vs. Oxlade chamberlain and Sagna. Newcastle conceeds a lot away even when with their near first team. Their only option might be to get Ba and Cisse going and try to get something in the offense. Their goals and chances were impressive vs. Man U but then again many teams get their chances at old trafford these days. The talks about Ba and his contract dont help either. Newcastle will be back home next wednsday to play a fit Everton side and I think that their focus might slip to this game if they are not in the game at some point trailing. Arsenal likes to score their goals late in the game and this is were I see Newcastles weakness after heavy weks and a midweek game. Arsenal also fancys on their day to go at home for more goals. With Arsenal looking in fine form and several options from the bench while Newcastle struggling week in week out, having played all out midweek, having problems with filling the bench with quality and several key players out, I can only see one option: Arsenal to win @1,48 10/10 Arsenal to win hc-1 @2,3 10/10 Arsenal to win hc-2 @odds around 4 10/10 Over 2,5 @1,7 And: Arsenal 1/1 @2,1 10/10 More goals in 2 half @3,35 10/10 Both bets are securing each other. With one winning giving a + while chances are good that both can come in giving a big time profit. -
Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December
Yes' date=' I am sorry for Magpies, but they will have to suffer another loss. They are unlucky with injuries this season so far.[/quote'] i hope that you realize that your posts till now have no value for anybody at.all? -
Re: Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December
Vidic is that player! They just need Vidic fit again and the other defenders have a fixation point who does good deciscions. The question is if Vidic will play and who with him. Evens is just awfull. Ferdinand tough not as quick as he was but given that Ferdinand and Vidic know each other very well its the prefered partnership. The other question is if Vidic plays is he 100% fit which I doubt somewhat. To take a bet on Man U not to conceede I would wait 1-2 games with Vidic.Defensively they are weak. I do not have the stats, but the goals conceded this season from set pieces by United must be off the charts. Fergie keeps buying strikers, but United need a Central defender like 'oxygen'. Let Ferdinand and Vidic rotate, and find a strapping 6 foot 3 central defender. Boss the penalty spot, and handle big runners for the crossed ball ! To me Jonny Evans shows little or no improvement season after season. Physically he seems small, and damn clumsy .... I just cannot go near the win to nil, but am tempted to go with United win and under 3.5 goals which is 11/8 on bet365 and also wins a 2-1 result. 2 units here. -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December
i really do think that rain influenced united-newcastle game more than ferguson's selection' date=' i really do! as far as norwich is concerned, since both don't play long balls or use too much of long range shots, perhaps it won't bother the whole game much. hmmmm, wind of 22 km/h does sound strong to me, in combination with showers, well, don't know, would skip i think...[/quote'] hehe sounds like the weather channel on here now. 22 kmh is rated as a small to medium breeze. up from 38 kmh you speak about strong wind. So the wind at Norwich will bother the players but wont influence the game in a way that the ball is influenced.. Weather in London games will be ok and nothing special. -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December
i never said they would play fluent game of football' date=' just the opposite, sit back and wait for opponent to make a mistake or to come to them what they punish so well. if norwich would choose to play same game as against chelsea, they are bound to concede. i think people are slightly mislead by sunderland game, not the bookies though, it seems...[/quote'] The thing is Norwich had some pretty decent games at home where they didnt make much mistakes espacially vs. opposition that isnt playing a fluent game. Chelsea looked very variable and Norwich had problems with that. City looks kind of heavy legged and one dimensional. I dont know how that can happen with this array at talent, and Im waiting every weak for them to improve big time, but it doesnt happen. No matter what squad available. Their offensive form is just horrible given their talent. Odds on man city reflect that everyone including the punters thinks that man city is man city and can pull out a narrow win using their individual quality. And this is what happens often enough so it would be suicidal by the bookies to give any better odds. I just think given Norwichs strong home record that this is the game you dont want to punt on City. I think Sunderland loss was unfortunate but it was also a typical city performance. Probably it will work this time again. A narrow 1:0 win at the end of 2nd half. Then again they trashed Norwich last season 6:1. Everything possible but not for me for this price away from home. Everyone is adding some percantage when they play vs. city and city looks tired of that. They just dont look hungry enough this season. -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December
yeah yeah. Im not saying it doesnt rain. Im saying there are different rains ;) For example London: Light rains and then showers with winds around 22 kmh. yesterday no rain. This means Pitches should be in rather good condition and the forecast for matchtime doesnt look like storm or anything what you dont have on a normal day in england. That gives me the conclusion that it wont affect the matches in a drastic way. Just think of the wigan - arsenal game where heavy rain soaked the pitch and during the game it was hard to see and it clearly affected the game. Nothing like that forecasted. Tough at Norwich there is a good amount of wind.@ notoriouspunter i check accuweather, they are most "accu"rate :) and they say that it rains everywhere in time of games, so... -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December
man' date=' it's raining everywhere in england, should suit better for defending sides. all things considered, i expect to see a game similar to newcastle-city, city being clinical this time unlike the sunderland game, perhaps they cover -1 handicap as well. slight difference might be that norwich would satisfy for a point, but this approach was proven wrong in chelsea game...[/quote'] for example london looks not like heavy rain. where do you see really bad conditions? -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester City > Sat 29th December there are no signs that man city will suddenly play fluent offensive football. what you think they should do and what they do is totally different. Norwich has the ability to shut out the opposition for a narrow game. They did that with every top team and will try to do it with city again.. why shouldnt they? they dont have thw ability to impose an offensive game on city. city is the strongest defensive team in the league bar none..espacialy when you look at their form .
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Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December
price in relation to what? past results? anyone can say price is to high..but why? nobody can trust you just because you say you beat the bookies.. If this is a banker then you might bet more on it then your standard bet? Did you recognize that huth looked a bit shaky/unconcentrated lately? Will it help him that in upson a guy plays that hasnt played a single game this season? For you its maybe bla bla. for the game and the 90 minutes it might mean everything..I look for errors just like this one you are spot on this is a banker for sure, I just can not see why the price is where it is.. A list of a few more errors I found HERE. These are my thoughts on quite a few matches over next few days all are based on price and price alone. Its good to know others see what I see...:clap -
Re: Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December There are many bad odds surounding this game who give no Value at all. Tough one guy is in top form. In absolute top form. Hernandez gives me much confidence to bet on him from the start. He is very fit and finally seems to click playing from the first minute. He gets into many positions and with another top performance he will be on the brink to be a regular. I feel West Brom will sit deep which suits Hernandez. Odds around evens are good for me as he is the hitman who converts. He also is fit enough to play 90 minutes while van persie is sometimes expected to be rested..
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Re: Fulham v Swansea City > Sat 29th December I will take Berbatov to score.
Even with Michu out fulham looks so weak in defence they can conceede with everyone.
Berbatov still gets chances in every game despite having to play much deeper the last weeks.
Now with Ruiz returning he can go further upfront getting into even more dangerous positions while Ruiz is a guy who seeks to put the ball through to Berbatov.
He is the guy Fulham seeks and his T-shirt is a hint to back him, seriously (lol)
2,7 odds at my local bookie down the street. 10/10 -
Re: Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 29th December fast tempo. both teams out for the win? With both teams having strength upfront they will search for a win and to score. This is agame that suits bale. you cant contain him as he is all over the pitch. henis very confident to take shots and he often is on target. he will be hungry to score more. with his technique and verve to go forward and beat defenders all over the pitch he is on his way to aregular acorer. while you get 3.0 odds on him you have to take em. why not bet on the obvious? I mean ots obbious messi scores when in form but you get odds below barca win odds. 10/10 bale to score @ 3,0
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Re: Everton v Chelsea > Sun 31st December
Yeah its possible. If that is the deciding factor and Torres is to be expected feeling ashamed and angry then Chelsea will not get anything from this match.. Will call Torres later in the evening on how he feels beeing a sissy lol 27/09/08 Torres scored two goals @Everton. Wonder if he got hate there too? Any Everton supporters remember that? probably not cause he was just into the league so there couldnt build up for hate already.. but looked like a lady boy then too ^^With respect, unless you have been in that old wooden stadium, when the players are on top of the crowd, with the crechendo of noise, No one can keep their cool in that environment, Tores will spit his dummy out in a empty ground if things dont go right...And last season he completely lost it, so I dont expect anything different..so IMO if he plays they are down a man, Just my opinion that if that crowd have it in for you, You will lose the plot at some stage. It does worry me that anyone can say that players especially away players at certain grounds are not influenced, so the game cant be influenced...Strange very strange...How in the hell do you think Celtic have reached the last 16, with such a mediocre side?..Barcelona with all their talent, bottled it. -
Re: Everton v Chelsea > Sun 31st December Everton conceed in the last 14 games. Their defense isnt watertight at all. They will be punished for that one time. This Chelsea offense and their various threats is the biggest test this season. Chelsea is a much different team to the team that faced everton the last years. I wouldnt bet on Torres beeing too down on chants. Pro players tend to grow on this kind of stuff. And how any waiter chants will influence this game is beyond any reasoning. Much more influences has this fact: Rafa Benitez has won five and drawn one of his last six Premier League meetings with Everton. He surely knows how to beat Everton. Benitez clearly had as first goal to tighten up chelsea and find after that a balance to the offense. He clearly achieved that. In almost all of the games vs. big name opposition the last two years Fellaini was instrumental. He is a big miss for Everton. Anichebe in no way has the influence on the game from the midfield where Fellaini often drops into. He has not the drive to influence the whole pitch. Darron gibson has fitness Problems. Everton looks very short on options from the bench. If Gibson isnt 100% fit and Hitzelsberger might need to play then Everton will have big problems containing Chelseas offense. Baines and Piennar is the big threat for chelsea and almost all attacks from Everton are going down that wing. Im not yet sure how Azipluceta will cope with that and if the chelsea right side can push back baines. Im guessing that Benitez will play Victor moses who is more of a wide player then oscar, thus giving more threat to Baines. That would also play into his habit of rotating at some positions. Will Everton loose once this season at home? With their defence not watertight I think so.. A inform Chelsea team will try to do that.
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Re: Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic > Sat 29th December Injury and suspension list for Villa is big. They are for sure a bit nervous for the situation after conceeding so much. they probably fear another humilation. This makes descicions for them difficult. Wigan played good organized football vs. Arsenal and Everton. They are desperate for points. I think they are in a kind of uptrend performance wise. wigan win looks good.
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Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December
These statistics are only hints at what is possible. I like to try digging deeper. What far more important is how these teams play these days and how both styles will clash and how the players match up against each other. What I see is that Southampton considerably tightened up their defensive organisation cause them trying to "play" other teams didnt work out many times. This goes for some sacrifices in the offensive end of the game. With Lallana missing they have even less options there. So they will probably try again to stay good organized. Its the key for them to stay in the prem. Then we have Stoke on the other side who emphaticly go forward with a strong organization all over the pitch which they prove game for game. Tough they have two big missings in defence with Shawcross and Cameron. Upson who hadnt games recently will come in in CD. This is a weakness no doubt. The question is how Stoke will cope with that? Im not so sure of that but often teams will be a bit more passiv and more into security. I also think that the organization of stoke is still good and due to the team effort rather then single players. So I expect a more cautios play and both teams heavily defending any lead while the other team wont expose them totally at the back. So the stats you give for Southampton should be weighted much lower due to their trend to play more defensivly and the missing of lallana while Stokes statistics wont be mroe affected as they will be more carefull with Upson having no match practice while their organization is still strong enough to contain a hampton team not going all out as at the start of the season. IMO Also the game vs. pool. Stoke was motivated to punish pool. The supporters got some hate for pool going and it got rather emotional. I dont expect a similar score line as this will be a more composed game..The average goals in Saints away games this season is 3.75 per game. 2nd Highest in the premier league behind Tottenham at 3.89 per game away. Stoke's home game goals per game average is 1.67. What prevails ... low or high , red or black ? -
Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December
You are right. They just dont score much. I know its their style. Score one and then secure it with all you have.. regarding everton, fulham.. Fulham did have 2 high margin wins this season and last season also. So they are able to do that. Everton only one time beat the handicap this season..right but you get the impression they have more ability to get a convincing win, and Im sure they will get some this season. I base my opinion not on statistics but on what I see. Potentially I just dont see Stoke trashing teams at home leaving always the impression that a draw is very likely. And with that I only wanted to illustrate what bookies think to offer these prices. I also stated I wont back Everton at these prices as you cant expect them anytime to win high.. Anyway for this game with Stoke missings in defence and Southampton looking tight at the back I cant see how Stoke below evens is Value at all.@ notoriouspunter what do you mean by "they don't convert much" exactly? hopefully you are not thinking about shot/goal ratio... key to stoke's success is exactly that - an extremely high shot/goal conversion ratio which could so precisely been seen against liverpool, they do not need many 15 chances to score two goals (hernandez anyone?). second, when did everton, or fulham, actually trash their opponents at home exactly? i can't remember when did this happen... -
Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December
yeah scared me too. master of statistics you need to look deeper behind the numbers..: vs.swansea they came of one of the fastest games this season vs. everton with only 2 days rest. they played jenkinson and gervinho as a striker while wilshere wasnt in a good form yet coming from injury. swansea has a great defensive organisation and build on that the last games.overall arsenal was tired in that game vs.fulham they came of a hard week vs man u and schalke. they played coquelin and ramsey with vermaelenas full back. vs sunderland they just misfired. completely dominated them. The statistics dont tell much how arteta , wilshere and cazorla grew the last weeks. goals can come from all end as most of the offensive players scored the last weeks. sagna, midfield combo, oxlade chamberlain getting stronger, newcastle weak defence are the keys imoNewcastle are shipping goals away, but are scoring. What's the better option between BTTS and oer 2.5 ? Over 2.5 match goals is 1.66 & BTTS is 1.75 . If you are plonking down serious green backs the BTTS or over 2.5 bets are not worth it over the 1.53 for the home win. The home win takes care of 1-0 and 2-0 which fail the other 2 bets. What scares me with Arsenal is the bets that they have bombed this season at home. Sunderland at 1.4 was 0-0 Fulham at 1.53 was 3-3 Swansea at 1.44 was 0-2 They have failed 50% of the time at odds of 1.55 or less. I will go for the BTTS over the over 2.5 goals for a very small bet here
Southampton v Arsenal > Tue 1st January
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Southampton v Arsenal > Tue 1st December Nice! I will take Arsenal to win and hc -1 + over 2,5 goals again. As said for the Newcastle game.. Arsenal are finding together. Only worry is Cazorla who is really hatin playing these days. They beat southampton already 6:1 earlier. Newcastle is a really strong team offensivly and I rate Southampton below them in their offensive power. Still they are able to conceede goals while they had tightened up weeks ago. Southampton hasnt many players to shuffle these days. Arsenal has here far more possibilitys to substitute and the game not played on boxing day might count even more on tuesday. While Southampton had a much harder schedule. Walcott will be high flying. The Newcastle game will give him big confidence. Arsenal is grinding these days and Wilshere is in tremendous form. He is unstoppable in midfield(now he only needs to learn to take balls in the face ;) ) Oxlade chamberlain is on a roll and his goal will give him evven more motivation to carry on. With games following so shortly he has not much time to think or celebrate too much, which is always good for aguy his age when things are going well... I think Wenger is now in a great position. He can always bring on Girourd and move Walcott to the wing. Its a killer move late in the game or when Walcott has problems going through in the middle when not leading. Im just a little unconfident cause of cazorla and would have loved to see something from Rosicky vs. Newcastle. Cazorla stated that he doesnt like playing these days at all and he was nearly non existant vs. Newcastle. with showing up Arsenal would be even stronger. Lets wait what the coaches have to say about squads..