ofcourseitwas
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Posts posted by ofcourseitwas
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hi guys, I was wondering if someone more knowledgeable than I could help with a question. I am wondering what the spread supremacy (to buy) would be when the home team has a certain odd. Just an estimate would be good, but wondering what the supremacy would be when the home team has the following odds: 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 Thanks in advance! this would be a big help for a prospective system on here :eek
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) hey Jens, nice post :ok I have a question, in your example to calculate value (for example, you estimate a 50% chance of winning and the bookies odds are 2.20, you have a 110% result), does that go the same for laying an outcome if the equation results in, lets say 80%? if so, is the value equal going in the negative direction as it is going in the positive? (is 110% value backing equal to 90% value laying) thanks in advance!
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Re: Half with most goals! you need to win exactly 3.5% of the time and that is about the chance you have of winning a 3-fold on this type of bet. for the 5-er it is about 0.4%. do you have a selection system for what you believe will produce more first half goals? or are you planning on just picking them on a whim? interesting idea though, multiples are great when they payout :cheers
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 261 bets +25% yield
maybe this is the offer Muppet has commented about....Why can't you suggest it on here? -
Re: Going For Overs
hey, I was just wondering (rather than going through all of the many threads you have started), what kind of yield over how many games did you achieve in your last overs system?Most of you will remember I had a fairly succesful Over 2.5 Goal System... -
Re: Perfect Away Odd hey, interesting thread. there is another game in the English Premiership on wednesday for Portsmouth-Chelsea. This should also be a banker, do you agree?
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 260 bets +25% yield ok interesting. well in that case good luck with your millions Muppet! :cash
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Re: My Unders System hey, nice work Palaceman! :clap I'm assuming you use a system to select your matches based on a certain criteria? Have you used this criteria in other leagues as well? If so, what results have you gotten?
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 260 bets +25% yield hey Muppet, just wondering if anyone knew what kind of limits Spread Betting bookies set per point? Are they more or less liberal with their maximum bets than fixed odds bookies?
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season
wow. thanks GREX. i have been working on several systems but Italy always seemed to mess things up. I suspected the defensive style was to blame, but i feel much better now that zwei of you have given it a name. 'gentlemen's agreement' Cheers :beerRelf has brought to my attention that it appears that the Serie A "silly season" has started. ....this weekend' date= the odds on a draw between Catania and Chievo are around 1.80 :loon. It's the same year after year.... teams come to a "gentleman's agreement" to play out a draw when it suits both teams. I think I shall do a statistical analysis on previous seasons to see if there's any profit on following these low-odd draws, because the vast majority come good. Don't you just LOVE the Italians :notworthy -
Re: Testing Robustness of a System as for Rushian's advice, I think the relevance of the chi square test depends on whether you are basing your system on bookies odds (expected odds and value) or a selection criteria (expected result regardless of odds)... am i wrong? no idea, im trying to figure this out too...
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Re: gloy hunt for five millions i like your selections for today. i feel you have a good chance to win these 4. Good Luck!
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield
haha, not that they don't take it seriously, it's just that their stadiums seem much quieter and their fans not as rowdy. But thanks for the advice I will try to quantify the info somehow. Good luck in the future! :cheerswow! try telling a Dane or a Swede that they don't take football seriously! i would stick on the route of some sort of numerical rating that gives you an accurate estimate of the spread that you wish to bet on. stick to value bets - if your rating is different to the bookies, then bet. if its largely different and you have confidence in what you do, and have tested it over time, bet BIG! it's the old question of 'value' picks or those thrown up by selection criteria. personally i'm a value man and do it mathematically. is there a way you can quantify the factors you think are important to create some sort of rating, then compare this to bookie prices? -
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield ok thanks for the advice and extensive answer. maybe we can talk a little bit more. I've gone back and looked at my reasoning and come up with a few things. First of all, my system is different from yours in that it does not choose by the difference in price between my estimate and the bookie's, but chooses matches using a reasoning i find it nearly impossible to believe the bookies use. So games are chosen that fit a certain criteria, the price is not an issue. I choose matches in which the system shows the team supremacy I am buying (always buy) will score many more goals than the spread predicts. Taking your advice, i've tried to improve my reasoning by including only leagues where football is almost a religion. What I mean is, it seems that in leagues like Portugal and Spain, the home team will be much more desperate for a win and to please their fans with goals than in a league like Norway or Denmark. This is just a first look. Am I wrong in the assumption that some leagues take it more seriously? If not, which leagues would you consider omitting as leagues where football is important, but not as important as in other countries? haha, maybe i'm asking too much... ps: these are the leagues ive chosen where football is most important (achieved a yield of 70%): Italy, England, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, France, Turkey. I dropped Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Norway and Belgium. These choices weren't based on how well the leagues performed, but by my reasoning of the importance of football (included Italy, dropped Switzerland and Belgium).
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield
So if you had seen that, say the Bundesliga, started to do poorly with your system and overall they had a negative/poor yield, you would drop that league altogether?Yes I think mine will vary. The spanish league is awesome for me. I think its how well the model describes the teams measured and how often they conform to the model. Standard deviation will vary amongst countries and leagues. -
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield
oh ok, i just saw the other leagues listed on spin and assumed they offered corners as well. i suppose not. well, do you have an opinion (since you are obviously successful with this) about whether a spread system could continue to work well specifically in certain leagues but not in others? p.s. i just realized may not have been clear, my bets are on team supremacy not corner spreadsI don't know of a spread firm that offers total corners on other leagues? -
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield hey muppet, congrats on the continued success. :clap I've noticed that you don't bet on all leagues offered by these spread betting firms. Does your system work well in leagues that you aren't listing here? Just wondering because I am working on a spread system that shows an incredible yield with most leagues (england, germany, portugal, spain, netherlands, belgium, switzerland) but on certain ones (italy, norway, austria, denmark) it performs much worse. With these leagues included i've had a yield of 30% in 123 games. Without these leagues included i've had a yield of 81% in 76 games. have you experienced something similar where extra leagues drag your yield down? it would make me feel much better.
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Holy Grail Total Corners
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. maybe im missing something here but why not back the acca picks at the spread betting firm with the best price? ....for those upset about the end of published picks