ofcourseitwas
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Posts posted by ofcourseitwas
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This is something I've been debating for awhile, and would like to get the opinions of those in this forum. If you have a system with enough history that you believe it to be valid and have value, would it be advantageous to use Betfair and hedge your bets when you can green out (saving you from the bet turning around and losing, but also losing some value if the bet turns out to be a win) or simply place the bet and let the value take care of itself? I know many will say, who cares, you've found value, just use it. What I'd like to know is your opinions on whether there is more potential value by hedging your bets or not? Maybe this can only be answered system to system and when you hedge your bets?
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Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI
the devil's work, no doubtThe Kelly criterion is incredibly difficult to apply to simultaneous bets, involving multiples and all sorts of trickery. -
Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI
For anybody interested I have the Dallas Mavericks as having a 57% chance of taking the Lakers tonight in their first playoff game' date=' and at odds of 3.6 they look pretty nice. Should at least cover the spread.[/quote'] agreed. the odds seem a bit high for what dallas is capable of.. -
Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 349 bets +70%. FIXED ODDS: 76 matches 0% yield Hi Muppet, are you aware of any bookies that offer spreads or fixed odds on corner superiority (team A against team B?
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Re: Smaller league stats? UPDATE: After a little more research, anyone looking for stats to spread their systems over leagues other than those offered at football-data, it turns out ESPN Soccernet and (Now)goal record Shots/Shots on Target/Corners/Fouls/etc. for the following leagues: Argentina Brazil Colombia Ecuador Mexico USA Bundesliga 2
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
no, quit your job....excellent results past and present for your system, keep it up :okAmazing :cheers:cheers. Respect bro. Keep this job. :clap -
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 323 bets; +8% yield Grex;1921840 it's a line from the end of Football Factory..
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 323 bets; +8% yield
it's a line from the end of Football Factory..Hi' date= Ofcourseitwas (of course it was... what ?) :) -
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 323 bets; +8% yield waitin til next season to drop the unders? well done keepin to the original plan :ok, your overs results are excellent. on a side note: Are the bookies after you??? moving from 'somewhere on the costa del sol' to argentina/spain/moldova/serbia ;)
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 323 bets; +8% yield waitin til next season to drop the unders? well done keepin to the original plan :ok, your overs results are excellent. on a side note: Are the bookies after you??? moving from 'somewhere on the costa del sol' to argentina/spain/moldova/serbia ;)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins nice result bairn, unlucky on carlisle they dominated the match. ps: thanks for keepin the system under wraps, i think im the only one who's got the formula right, you keep throwin up the same picks as me :cheers
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Re: Smaller league stats? Thanks for the help guys. I think TBM hit the nail on the head, but it seems like there must be SOMEONE recording info for these games with so many in attendance. ESPN Soccernet doesn't seem to put much effort into the lower leagues as they have shots on goal, shots, etc. listed, but don't record the results (they record 1 shot on target, 1 shot and 1 goal ONLY for each goal scored. Froment's first suggestion has produced stats for Bundesliga 2, and for that I thank you. :ok
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Re: Smaller league stats?
Try h2hstats.com or betexplorer.com ' date=' they might have what your looking for :hope[/quote'] neither of which have stats for shots on target/corners :wall. I'm beginning to wonder if anywhere records this for smaller leagues as even the official Lega Calcio and Bundesliga 2 websites don't have stats for them. In any case, thanks for the help jtw1. -
Re: Smaller league stats? The website wouldn't necessarily need historical stats, but if someone could point me in the direction of where to find stats for the last round played would be good enough (news source, etc.). I'm working on a system that is showing promise (200 bets, +73% yield, avg. odds: 4.00) but it only throws up an average of 1 bet per week using stats from football-data.co.uk. I guess I'm a little impatient, but was looking to increase the number of games/week.
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Re: Smaller league stats? thanks for the tip, froment. i checked out the site and it offers good info for bundesliga 2. :clap do you know of any sites that i can view stats for leagues like italy 2, portugal, eredivisie, austria bundesliga, etc?
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does anyone know a good place to find statistics from smaller leagues (switzerland, germany 2, austria, etc.) for stuff other than final score? (total shots, on target, corners, etc.)
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Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points nice job today :clap, only 1 came through but a net of +2 points. ps...u can edit thread title by editing the 1st post, then clicking edit again
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Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points good luck :cheers
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if you look at muppet's last post youll see that the bookies are already onto him and changing odds quite quickly...lets see where this goesThanks for the advice. I'll try and edit a few previous posts to take out a bit of detail! -
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points
its up to you. and im not sure if youve realized this, but you have a good yield from many bets. :dudeThanks for the advice. Do you think it would be an idea to remove some of the detail I've put in previous posts? -
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points not sure if im using the same formula as you bairn, but ive done extensive backtesting using a similar idea and this system is showing some promise. although contrary to the whole idea of this forum, and im sure ill get some feedback for this, i suggest you do more backtesting/papertrailing in private as ive heard bookies view this forum periodically ;)
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Re: Living of betfair? thanks for the in-depth info lunatism. i have a question about systems based on selection, not value necessarily. would it be normal for a selection system to do well in one country consistently and not in another, or at one level (top flight, etc.) rather than lower leagues? Is the system unreliable if it works only for certain countries or levels? looking for some opinions on this...
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. ok ok. worth a look anyways, system within a system for the brokenhearted
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. still an opportunity for some guys to keep on for the matches available. lol im either being a dick, causing u to abandon tips altogether or giving some obvious advice on a winning system
Hedging Bets on a Value System?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Hedging Bets on a Value System? sorry to be so late in responding - computer issues :eyes thanks for your ideas, i like v-zero's idea of running them concurrently, which will enable me (in the future) to utilize froment's great idea of creating expected odds at the time of trading out.