ofcourseitwas
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Posts posted by ofcourseitwas
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If you believed you had a working system with an advantage on the bookies' odds, I have heard that you can multiply that advantage using an accumulator. With that said, if you wanted to bet doubles and had 6 selections to choose from in total, would it be more to your advantage to bet 3 linear doubles or use a Round Robin where it bets every possible permutation? (in this case, 15 bets)
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Re: SSB Away win system
ive been using a system that looks to throw up similar fixtures. I was on for Marseille and will be on Leverkusen and Sevilla this weekend. good luck to us :cheersForest Green off to a loser. Todays picks are: Paris St Gemain @ 2.05 Leverkusen @ 2.62 Sevilla @ 2.5 -
Re: Software / System Builder
what exactly would you use to "read in" results? I am familiar with PHP and MySQL, but this concept i'm not familiar with. Specifically, what website would you read (are you scraping for data?), I thought PHP could only access files on your own server?If you're looking for full automation, I'd suggest PHP and MySQL. PHP to do things like read in results, and MySQL to store these in a database. If you're not familiar with computer programming though, the learning curve for this will be very steep. You'll also need some sort of web hosting (might have to pay for this), or the ability to set up your computer as a web server. The big advantage is that you can set up "cron jobs" to automatically read in results and keep your database up to date, so once up and running, you can just leave it to do all the work. You can also use odds feeds to get details of up and coming fixtures and put code in there to find out which fixtures fit with your systems. You can even set up cron jobs so that they send you an email every time when a new fixture shows up that fits in with your system, so all you have to do is check your e-mails and place bets. Not easy at all any of this, but there are lots of tutorials on PHP and MySQL on the web, and if you can get it working, it's the best solution for this kind of thing that I've come across. -
Re: A.I. Football
well done again today :ok can you tell me...what is a neural network and how do you make one?Grimsby (x) 3.5 Corals 10pts -
Re: Peter's SSB Systems (bets:83; yield: 11.37%) good luck peter, im on Hull. and agreed patience is a virtue
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 145 bets; +18% yield Grex, nice name change, little more eye catching, deservingly so. ill be rooting for both udinese and siena..
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 145 bets; +18% yield Grex, nice name change, little more eye catching, deservingly so. ill be rooting for both udinese and siena..
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Re: SAFE MULTIBET system great start MAYBE :ok
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
no contradiction, read my whole post. when i said stoke won't lose it should have been understood as a pick, not taken literally as a sure thing. Edit: lol "petty posts that address no football fixtures (cough, post above)" Do you not see the contradiction?How can you restate 'stoke wont lose' but then say ' naturally you can never be 100% on a pick''? Do you not see the contradiction? -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
you would find them naive as we share different opinions...but let me restate "stoke wont lose": I believe there is more value backing stoke +0.5 than a sunderland win. Naturally you can never be 100% on a pick, it is simply an opinion, otherwise anyone would spend their entire bankroll on that single and this goes without saying.. now let's call a truce...we hunt for value in different ways and as such have arrived at different conclusions, we'll know the result come SundayThat wasn't a crash course in value, value is far more indepth than that imo. It was a explaination in reply to your statement ''stoke wont lose'' I find those kind of comments very naive and needless. I think other punters with experience will agree with me. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
yes, he's had an excellent start so far :eyes Citing the winning percentage of your 'A star bets' seems just as much a sure claim of victory as mine that Sunderland won't win. It is all about momentum and confidence here, Sunderland don't have it and Stoke will assert themselves. I don't see value in these odds, the teams are far nearer to level pegging this weekend than bookies' opinion suggests. Thanks for the crash course in bet value, though. :clapI disagree, the stats are telling just as Bruce's history of starting seasons well is. As i put in my write up, this is an A star bet for me and i've had 7 other A star bets so far this season, all winning. I don't really like this statement from you '' stoke won't lose this one..'' you don;t know that just as much as i don't know for sure if sunderland will win 4-0 or lose 4-0. There are too many variables that can effect the outcome, bad luck, ref decision, cards, weather, injuries during game etc... I never recommend or follow a bet based on a single example, it's all about averages linked to odds (or value). Considering all the factors, h2h, stokes travels etc... sunderland offer the best value at 2.37. If Sunderland were 1.50 for eg, i wouldn't take the bet because i don't believe sunderland will win this game everytime but enough times to give a profit at the odds available. That doesn't mean it's worth backing every 10/1 shot just because you think a team can win more than 10% of the time and give a profit. It's still about taking those averages, as i/we see it and then protecting the negative outcomes as best as possible. The odds are wrote up as though this is a normal league game where both sides have had a weeks rest. Given that fact along with the other pros for sunderland now is the 'right' time to take on sunderland and protect against the negative outcomes (stoke win or draw). Doesn't mean sunderland will win but it's an educated and considered bet that i believe uses solid principles that when used for hundreds of bets over a season will generate my target profit. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
Stats aren't coming as much into play here as Stoke's new signings will result in more confidence/energy at the prospect of being a real fixture in the Premiership. At the moment this is a different team compared to that which has played at SOL the last 3 times. Odds are correct, stoke won't lose this one..It (stoke in europe) is certainly a factor but heres a few more : Stoke haven't won at Sunderland in last 3 (since joined prem) Stoke haven't scored at Sunderland in last 3 visits Bruce starts seasons well Just my opinion, but this is the bet of the season so far @ 2.37 for a home win :hope -
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 122 bets; +21% yield [quote=Grex;2000880][FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Still, things can only get better..... can't they ? [/quote] From 0-0? Yes. Not being a smartass, just incredibly literal. Good Luck :hope
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 122 bets; +21% yield
From 0-0? Yes. Not being a smartass, just incredibly literal. Good Luck :hopeStill, things can only get better..... can't they ? -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
No I understand what you're saying (the condescension and all). Picking the right time to take odds and so forth.I respect your opinion and I read this forum often so don't want to cause trouble. Maybe one day you will both understand what I am saying (you will maximise your profits/minimise losses). Im sure someone like 'Datapunter' could give you a detailed explanation. Good luck everyone. -
Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Hi Shini, I think you would find more interest from the community if you would keep a running number of picks, yield, etc. below each posting. :ok
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
How ill informed are you? Betting is not punters v bookies' date=' its punters v punters. Its a barron waste land and you're leaving shot guns lying around in the open for the enemy to find. If they find the ammunition as well then you are going to get a body part blown off and you deserve it.[/quote'] I think the existence of this forum, and the fact that Bairn and others continue to post their picks prove it is not punters v punters, but punters v bookies. -
Re: How to Weight Superiority
Thanks for the feedback, this is very helpful. Indeed, it seems to be exactly what I am looking for. Donkson, can you explain why you think I shouldn't use his formula?Consider P =A/SUM(A+B). When A=4,B=1 P=0.80 When A=10,B=7 P=0.59 So yes, 4-1 is more significant than 10-7. -
Hi all, I remember reading (somewhere on this forum) that if Team A beats Team B 4 to 1 shots on target, it carries a higher significance than if they had beaten them 10 to 7 shots on target. Is there a specific or generally accepted formula that can measure this absolutely? I'm hoping for something where I can just plug the numbers in and get a consistent result. Trying to develop an excel system, so any help would be appreciated!
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Re: A dabble on the OVER's
i appreciate how you've chosen a position, planted the flag and conscientiously (and optimistically) viewed it from different vantage points. to the quest...:beerAs usual with my threads / systems , it's the previous meetings between the sides from where the selections will be picked . -
Re: One pick a day!!! this is true gambling. have to like the 25% compounded stake!
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) in another thread on this forum, Moggis was talking something about 'a 75% chance I will reveal the secret to my antepost bet by this time next year'. i could be wrong, but his whole manner of speaking strikes a keen resemblance to that guy who got banned a few months ago for going on and on about "Slicer's Bet", not offering any actual proof of a system, but endlessly defending himself (turned out he e-mailed a ton of ppl just after he got banned trying to sell the 'system' for 10$). ..I'll go even further to say he might be 'arguing with himself to create interest' by operating several PL usernames at once.. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but it does strike a resemblance.
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Re: Does picking sensible favourites win long term?what do you think of my system. welcome husky, as many of the regulars on this forum will tell you, if you can't find an advantage and finish ahead with even stakes, then you won't be able to do it by doubling up, accumulating, etc. Essentially all that does is multiply either the Bookies' or Your edge many times over. it sounds like you believe in yourself as a punter, so why not try out even stakes for a while and see what kind of results you get? Start with a 'bank' of however much you think would be safe to lose (in total) and bet 2-10% of that on each wager flat bet. if you can't pass the test of even stakes, you'll never win with accumulators/martingale betting (in the long run). good luck! :ok
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Re: Comparing Systems easily System #2. That wouldn't happen to be your aways system would it? ;) System 1 does not have nearly enough picks to say it will be profitable in the future. Only 113 picks could be pure variance. System 3 has a fair amount of picks and would rank 2nd imo. However, that profit could drop off over the next 500 picks and end up with the same or worse yield that is already proven in System 2 (20%).
Round Robin vs. Normal Accumulator
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Round Robin vs. Normal Accumulator thanks Wise Guy, this was what i needed. turns out doing a round robin for me produces the same yield as level stakes while a simple 2x acca nearly doubles the yield.