Jenspm
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Posts posted by Jenspm
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Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP 
Vålerenga v Strømsgodset (16:00 BST) 1.5 5 7.2 100.56 % Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Aalesunds FK v Sandefjord Fotball (17:00 BST) 1.28 6 13 102.48 % Haugesund v Stabæk (17:00 BST) 2.26 3.9 3.3 100.19 % Kongsvinger IL v Start (17:00 BST) 3.35 3.6 2.3 101.11 % Lillestrøm SK v Brann (17:00 BST) 2.2 3.7 3.6 100.26 % Odd Grenland v Viking FK (17:00 BST) 2.31 3.55 3.2 102.71 % Hønefoss BK v Rosenborg BK (19:00 BST) 6 4.4 1.61 101.51 % Monday 18 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Tromsø v Molde (18:00 BST) 2.12 3.65 4 99.57 % -
Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Faroe Islands v Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Clean Sheet @ 1.80 - bet365 Northern Ireland have had a great start to qualifying, mainly due to solid defending. They beat Slovenia 1-0 and held Italy to a 0-0 draw, and I'm sure they'll make sure they're fully concentrated ahead of this vital game. Faroe Islands impressed in their opening game against Estonia, where they lost a 1-0 lead by conceding two goals in overtime. Since then, they've been beaten 0-3 by Serbia at home, 5-0 by Italy away and finally 5-1 by Slovenia away - where they scored in the last minute, when the game was long gone. I don't think Northern Ireland will run away with this, and thus they'll have to keep concentrating on holding that clean sheet to secure victory. I think the chances of them managing that are higher that the 55% the odds convey, so there is value here in my opinion.
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Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October England v Montenegro Montenegro +1.5 @ 2.01 - Pinnacle To be perfectly honest, I find England are almost always under-priced by the bookies. Call it patriotism, respect for a historically big football nation, whatever - it almost always holds true. As it does in this game, yet again. I'd lay them at the current price given on betfair (1.27), but I believe there's more value in their opposition on the handicap. England are, after all, pretty solid at Wembley, but do they have what it takes to beat this Montenegro team, a team that has yet to concede so far in qualifying, by two goals? Probably not, I say. They've been in good form lately, which is a cause for optimism, but one mustn't underrate this Montenegrin side. England will be without 'true captain' John Terry, Frank Lampard and the man in international form for England - Defoe. Walcott is out as is Lennon, so the midfield is starting to lack creativity compared to what they've had previously. Key players such as Gerrard and Rooney will be frustrated due to their teams' performances in the Premier League lately, and to be perfectly honest I wouldn't be surprised if we get a Deja Vu feeling from what we saw in the World Cup. I think their squad, in their lack of creativity, will have a tough time breaking down a stubborn Montenegrin defense, who will definitely be playing for a draw here. Should be an interesting game.
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Re: Jenspm's Guide to Poker - See if we can win him millions! I had a strange beat at a live tournament today, I'll walk you through how I thought from card to card. I'm 5th of 20 remaining btw, playing against the guy in fourth position. I get dealt KAo, he calls BB, I raise to 3BB, everyone folds he calls. Here I think he has something worth betting, but nothing spectacular given his previous call. Flop is 2 2 4. He checks, I bet 2BB, he quickly calls. I now assume he has two cards above these, probably an ace, and is hunting a top pair/high card. A-2 came to mind, but I thought the chances were slim - would he have called my raise with that? next card on the table is an Ace. He bets 5BB. I'm now pretty sure he has an ace, probably with a decent kicker, and he knows I have neither a 2 or a 4 given my raise. I call. next is a 3. He goes all in. At this point I think he thinks he's got me. Seeing as I raised he could've assumed I didn't have a 2, 3 or 4, the chances of me having AA are very slim (and my raise is too low for that). I didn't know what to expect of him, and actually placed him on an A with a J or higher. That or nothing and an attempt to steal. I decide to call and go all in, and what does he show? 72o for trips. What the hell? Anything I should've done differently? I was stunned that he had called my raise with those cards. In hindsight I probably should've raised more pre-flop, but I wanted to get something out of these cards.. Thoughts, please? :cheers
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Re: £50 to £500 by 31st October Saving up for the latest Katy Perry halloween costume, are we? ;) Good luck :ok
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Re: PL Exclusive - DTD Poker Freeroll - 3 seats for DTD Grand Prix - €210 added I'll be joining this one, looking forward to being raped by fellow PL members :nana
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Re: SportsGreatest's Football Log. Promising start mate, keep it up :ok One thing though - please don't edit posts that include bets. If you make a mistake, just make a new post pointing out the error - else it'll look like you could've gone and changed your bet after the event :)
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Re: Jenspm tries to poke 'er Played the $100 freeroll on Betfair, finished 5th/1500 for $5.50 :) Came in to the final table as chip leader, but got three bad beats in a row (opponent all-in, my hand better but he wins), and ended up having to go all in with K9o with something like 3BB's and got beat by A7o.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Actually, I'll see if I can derive a profitable formula for spread betting from the Kelly Criterion tomorrow..
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I understand that, however, if you use points-staking your profits will drop and yields rise (I'd bet). Why? Because you have to account for high-stake bets. I wouldn't stake more than £1 on a single game, so then £1 would have to be your max stake, while the one-point matches would have to be like 10p. With level stakes, you'd be betting, say, 75p per bet at a lower-yield, higher-stakes and higher-profit system. (I think, too tired atm for maths, will take another look tomorrow)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? all the data I posted is taken directly from your spreadsheet mate :)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I'm definitely not a fan of percentage betting, I must say. Just had a quick look at your spreadsheet and have a few thoughts, - In my opinion, the staking system has to go and be swapped out with a level stakes system. The reason for this is that a big staked-loss has a massive impact on your bank and what you can stake elsewhere. You had a 40pt loss at one point, for example. - With level 1pt stakes, your biggest streak of losses (ie, had you started at this point the lowest your bank would ever be) was -18pts, thus the lowest point your bank would have ever seen if you jumped in at the worst possible moment in this stream of bets is 82pts. - The above example would limit you to 10 bets at a time, or 8 bets at your lowest point. As far as I can see, your maximum number of bets pr. day so far has been 5. - For you to have to not able to bet as much as you'd like (5 bets), and halve your bank, you'd have to hit a run 3 times worse than your worst ever run at the start of your session - £1 stakes would give you a profit of £148 over the course of 301 bets, an impressive total ROI of 148% - An average losing bet at £1 stakes is at £2.6. That's 2.6% of your bank and pretty 'safe'. - The chance of a bet losing more than £4 is 10% Anyways, I'd personally go for 50p stakes, but you'd be unlucky to not get away with £1 stakes in my opinion.
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Re: World cycling championships 29 Sep - 3 Oct Good stuff Sasquatch :clap
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Re: World cycling championships 29 Sep - 3 Oct Hushovd :loon
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Re: Jenspm's Guide to Poker - See if we can win him millions! Interesting point, I'll keep that in mind :ok
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds BK92: Not quite. You've got the HT percentages correct (A and B in the formula), however, 'The remaining % must be from Villerreal winning HT and then losing or drawing FT.' isn't quite accurate. This percentage has nothing to do with the two others - here you're just saying "ok, Villareal are leading at HT, what's the chance of them not winning the match?" - this is for you to judge, it could be anything from 0-100%, though it's more likely it being low on the scale. Sand87: A+B should equal 100% in total - seeing as there is no other outcomes than a win, draw or loss at HT. C is, as I said to BK92, a third percentage that has no connection to A or B. You're simply saying, "What's the chance of Chelsea not winning when their up at HT?" Thus your definition of C should be 'losing or drawing', not just 'losing'. Sorry about that.
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Re: Jenspm's Guide to Poker - See if we can win him millions! Ooo, forgot about this thread! Hadn't played in a while as I haven't had a working PC (got it today though!), but joined the university's poker club's opening event. Was only a £1 buy-in (so as to not scare off newcomers), but I finished 7th of 72 nonetheless (winning £7), so I was pretty happy with that :) Anyways The out-hand was like this: We are (obviously) seven at the final table. I'm small blind with a little under 10BB's (25k, BB @ 3k), and am dealt K6s. Everyone folded all the way around to the dealer (who limps in on almost everything..) who called. BB was short-stacked. I went all in, BB folded but dealer called with an 88 - the rest is history. I was pretty confident in the all-in, and didn't have any regrets afterwords. ..but I thought I'd ask anyway - was it the right call? :)
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 28th September Nah, Drogba is out http://www.chelseafc.com/page/TalkingPoints/0,,10268~54571,00.html
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Re: Jenspm tries to poke 'er Haven't been able to play for aaaaaaaaages due to not having a working PC (currently on a public one in my dorm, cannot install poker software), but that should be sorted within a couple of weeks. Anyways, joined the university's poker league, and had the first tournament today. 'twas just a small buy-in of £1 to not scare people off, but I finished 7th out of 72 for £7 :) My out-hand was as so: I was small blind with slightly under 10BB, and was dealt K6s. Everyone folded up to the dealer who called, I went all in, BB folded, dealer called with 88. Correct move..?
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds I may have misunderstood your question, 11% is the chance of Chelsea not winning IF they are leading at HT 6% is the chance of Chelsea leading at half-time AND not win at FT
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds 53% is from the bookies Chelsea HT odds of 1.89 (100/1.83) the HT/FT odds gave showed a 53% chance of losing the bet. 47% are from Chelsea not winning the first half, so the remaining 6% must be from Chelsea winning HT and then losing or drawing FT. I knew there was a 53% chance (according to the bookies) of Chelsea winning the first half, so I did 53% * Y% = 6%, Y% = 6%/53%, thus Y = 11 53% * 11% = those 6% the bookies added on
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds Anytime mate Feel free to yell at me if you find a mistake :ok
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds I'll make a formula for you The chance of a win is, 1-(A+(B*C)) Where: A = the chance of Marseille winning or grabbing a draw at HT B = the chance of Chelsea winning at HT C = the chance of Chelsea losing the match IF they are winning at HT the correct odds would then be 1/(1-(A+(B*C))) A,B & C should be in decimals (eg. 70% = 0.7)
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Re: Ze Newie....P/L +106.85 Pts Please don't edit your posts with results, just make a new post instead. (else you could ninja-remove losing bets..)
Norway: Adeccoligaen 17th of October
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted