Jenspm
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Posts posted by Jenspm
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
Just set up a list of what can happen, and take your pick. Ie - if Nadal or Djoko wins, you're at -25 on the men's side If Murray wins, you're at +147.5 If Tsonga wins, you're at +57 If you lay them both, you're at +11.5 for Murray, and +8.25 for Tsonga, ie +19.75 Or you can just hedge one, and potentially profit on both. However, I only lay my bets if I feel the odds have dropped lower than they should have - ie, if there is value in the lay. So, if you think 4/1 is too low for Murray, lay it. Else, I'd stick with it.I also followed yours and Atko's advice (as well as my own opinion) and backed this one today and am glad I did! Also glad I didn't decide to bet on the other matches - I had a feeling they were all very unpredictable and I was right. I currently have 3 outrights on: £23 on Murray at ~ 13/2, now priced at 4/1 £2 on Tsonga at 40/1, now priced at 7/1 £4 on Lisicki at 28/1, now priced at 11/2 (although was strangely 3/1 at one point) Obviously none of them are favourites, was wondering what's the best way I could maybe lay some of these bets? Or should I just stick to my guns and hope they come off? No bets from me for tomorrow so far, will have a look in the morning to see if there's anything I fancy. Also, how can I get involved in this points thing?? -
Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hey Ginger :) As you may know, I too love the value betting style. However, I've started laying any selection where the odds drop below my calculated odds. Eg. if I give a team/horse/tomato a 2/1 shot at winning, I'll back it at 3/1 and then if it falls down to say, 3/2, I'll lay it off. Always. Assuming you're prediction is right (which you have to assume, really), laying it off produces the biggest long term profit AND significantly reduces the chance of hitting a bad losing streak. So yeah, do you do this? Just some food-for-thought really, I know a lot of punters are reluctant to lay off bets even if there is a massive drop bellow their predicted odds.
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Re: Had a bad beat ? Come and have a moan here Is this what they call karma? Jesus, shouldn't have laughed at those other guys :lol ANTES/BLINDS eugeni01 posts small blind (50), TRELLAAA posts big blind (100), PRE-FLOP ZARAN7 raises to 1,020 and is all-in, Vorak72 folds, Tpetrow folds, Jens2211 raises to 1,815 and is all-in, wales1958 folds, eugeni01 folds, TRELLAAA folds. FLOP [board cards: 7D,6H,9C ] TURN [board cards: 7D,6H,9C,2D ] RIVER [board cards: 7D,6H,9C,2D,TC ] SHOWDOWN Jens2211 shows [ AC,AH ] ZARAN7 shows [ 8H,AS ] ZARAN7 wins 2,190.
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Re: Had a bad beat ? Come and have a moan here Not me, but you gotta feel sorry for the guys :lol ANTES/BLINDS kokorellos posts small blind (10), eugeni01 posts big blind (20), PRE-FLOP TRELLAAA folds, ZARAN7 folds, Vorak72 calls 20, Tpetrow folds, the_m00se raises to 60, Jens2211 folds, 4x4colt raises to 2,000 and is all-in, wales1958 folds, kokorellos folds, eugeni01 calls 2,000 and is all-in, Vorak72 folds, the_m00se calls 2,000 and is all-in. FLOP [board cards: TH,9H,AC ] TURN [board cards: TH,9H,AC,JH ] RIVER [board cards: TH,9H,AC,JH,4S ] SHOWDOWN 4x4colt shows [ KC,KD ] eugeni01 shows [ QS,8S ] the_m00se shows [ AH,AS ] eugeni01 wins 6,030.
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Re: PL Exclusive - DTD Poker Freeroll - 3 seats for DTD Grand Prix - €210 added Ehh, guys, I'll have to leave at 9 sadly, but the chances of me being in at that time are slim anyway :lol Looking forward to it :)
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Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP 
KuPS v FF Jaro (12:00 BST) 2.3 3.5 3.25 102.82 % FC Haka v FC Honka (14:00 BST) 4 3.6 1.95 104.06 % Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP AC Oulu v JJK Jyväskylä (16:30 BST) 2.2 3.4 3.23 105.83 % FC Lahti v IFK Mariehamn (16:30 BST) 2 3.5 3.85 104.55 % Vaasan Palloseura v Tampere United (16:30 BST) 2.1 3.4 3.31 107.24 % Monday 18 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP FC Inter Turku v MyPa (16:30 BST) 2 3.5 3.65 105.97 % HJK Helsinki v TPS (16:30 BST) 2.3 3.4 3.1 105.15 % -
Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP SønderjyskE v Aalborg BK (16:00 BST) 2.76 3.4 2.82 101.10 % Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP AC Horsens v Esbjerg fB (13:00 BST) 2.6 3.4 2.8 103.59 % FC Nordsjælland v Brøndby IF (15:00 BST) 2.82 3.45 2.64 102.33 % Lyngby BK v Silkeborg IF (15:00 BST) 2.61 3.55 2.75 102.85 % FC København v Odense BK (17:00 BST) 1.75 4 5.3 101.01 % Monday 18 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Randers FC v FC Midtjylland (18:00 BST) 2.85 3.45 2.58 102.83 % -
Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Ängelholms FF v IFK Norrköping (15:00 BST) 2.82 3.7 2.21 107.54 % Falkenbergs FF v Assyriska FF (15:00 BST) 2.23 3.34 2.94 108.80 % GIF Sundsvall v FC Trollhättan (15:00 BST) 1.36 4.45 7.58 108.71 % Landskrona BoIS v Hammarby IF (15:00 BST) 2.02 3.44 3.29 108.97 % Ljungskile SK v Väsby United (15:00 BST) 1.51 4.25 5.77 107.09 % Örgryte IS v IK Brage (15:00 BST) 1.85 3.48 4.24 106.37 % Östers IF v Degerfors IF (15:00 BST) 2.62 3.23 2.52 108.81 % Syrianska FC v Jönköpings Södra (15:00 BST) 1.46 4.43 5.55 108.70 % -
Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP AIK v Gefle IF (15:00 BST) 2.02 3.45 4.2 102.30 % Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Åtvidabergs FF v BK Häcken (14:00 BST) 2.78 3.35 2.75 102.19 % Mjällby AIF v Halmstads BK (14:00 BST) 2.1 3.4 3.95 102.35 % Trelleborgs FF v Djurgårdens IF (14:00 BST) 2.37 3.35 3.2 103.21 % IF Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg (15:30 BST) 3.25 3.45 2.4 101.42 % Monday 18 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP IF Elfsborg v Helsingborgs IF (18:00 BST) 2.2 3.4 3.6 102.64 % Malmö FF v Kalmar FF (18:00 BST) 1.64 3.8 6.5 102.68 % Wednesday 20 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP GAIS v Örebro SK (18:00 BST) 2.75 3.2 2.5 107.61 % -
Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Follo v Sarpsborg 08 (14:00 BST) 3.75 3.8 1.97 103.74 % Mjøndalen v Tromsdalen (14:00 BST) 1.99 3.8 3.6 104.34 % Moss v Strømmen (14:00 BST) 2.92 3.75 2.32 104.02 % Nybergsund IL-Trysil v Bryne (14:00 BST) 2.05 3.7 3.33 105.84 % Løv-Ham v Sogndal (14:30 BST) 2.75 3.45 2.54 104.72 % Alta v Sandnes Ulf (17:00 BST) 2.02 3.6 4.2 101.09 % Bodø/Glimt v Ranheim (17:00 BST) 1.97 3.6 3.75 105.21 % -
Saturday 16 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Vålerenga v Strømsgodset (16:00 BST) 1.5 5 7.2 100.56 % Sunday 17 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Aalesunds FK v Sandefjord Fotball (17:00 BST) 1.28 6 13 102.48 % Haugesund v Stabæk (17:00 BST) 2.26 3.9 3.3 100.19 % Kongsvinger IL v Start (17:00 BST) 3.35 3.6 2.3 101.11 % Lillestrøm SK v Brann (17:00 BST) 2.2 3.7 3.6 100.26 % Odd Grenland v Viking FK (17:00 BST) 2.31 3.55 3.2 102.71 % Hønefoss BK v Rosenborg BK (19:00 BST) 6 4.4 1.61 101.51 % Monday 18 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Tromsø v Molde (18:00 BST) 2.12 3.65 4 99.57 % -
Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Faroe Islands v Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Clean Sheet @ 1.80 - bet365 Northern Ireland have had a great start to qualifying, mainly due to solid defending. They beat Slovenia 1-0 and held Italy to a 0-0 draw, and I'm sure they'll make sure they're fully concentrated ahead of this vital game. Faroe Islands impressed in their opening game against Estonia, where they lost a 1-0 lead by conceding two goals in overtime. Since then, they've been beaten 0-3 by Serbia at home, 5-0 by Italy away and finally 5-1 by Slovenia away - where they scored in the last minute, when the game was long gone. I don't think Northern Ireland will run away with this, and thus they'll have to keep concentrating on holding that clean sheet to secure victory. I think the chances of them managing that are higher that the 55% the odds convey, so there is value here in my opinion.
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Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October England v Montenegro Montenegro +1.5 @ 2.01 - Pinnacle To be perfectly honest, I find England are almost always under-priced by the bookies. Call it patriotism, respect for a historically big football nation, whatever - it almost always holds true. As it does in this game, yet again. I'd lay them at the current price given on betfair (1.27), but I believe there's more value in their opposition on the handicap. England are, after all, pretty solid at Wembley, but do they have what it takes to beat this Montenegro team, a team that has yet to concede so far in qualifying, by two goals? Probably not, I say. They've been in good form lately, which is a cause for optimism, but one mustn't underrate this Montenegrin side. England will be without 'true captain' John Terry, Frank Lampard and the man in international form for England - Defoe. Walcott is out as is Lennon, so the midfield is starting to lack creativity compared to what they've had previously. Key players such as Gerrard and Rooney will be frustrated due to their teams' performances in the Premier League lately, and to be perfectly honest I wouldn't be surprised if we get a Deja Vu feeling from what we saw in the World Cup. I think their squad, in their lack of creativity, will have a tough time breaking down a stubborn Montenegrin defense, who will definitely be playing for a draw here. Should be an interesting game.
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Re: Jenspm's Guide to Poker - See if we can win him millions! I had a strange beat at a live tournament today, I'll walk you through how I thought from card to card. I'm 5th of 20 remaining btw, playing against the guy in fourth position. I get dealt KAo, he calls BB, I raise to 3BB, everyone folds he calls. Here I think he has something worth betting, but nothing spectacular given his previous call. Flop is 2 2 4. He checks, I bet 2BB, he quickly calls. I now assume he has two cards above these, probably an ace, and is hunting a top pair/high card. A-2 came to mind, but I thought the chances were slim - would he have called my raise with that? next card on the table is an Ace. He bets 5BB. I'm now pretty sure he has an ace, probably with a decent kicker, and he knows I have neither a 2 or a 4 given my raise. I call. next is a 3. He goes all in. At this point I think he thinks he's got me. Seeing as I raised he could've assumed I didn't have a 2, 3 or 4, the chances of me having AA are very slim (and my raise is too low for that). I didn't know what to expect of him, and actually placed him on an A with a J or higher. That or nothing and an attempt to steal. I decide to call and go all in, and what does he show? 72o for trips. What the hell? Anything I should've done differently? I was stunned that he had called my raise with those cards. In hindsight I probably should've raised more pre-flop, but I wanted to get something out of these cards.. Thoughts, please? :cheers
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Re: £50 to £500 by 31st October Saving up for the latest Katy Perry halloween costume, are we? ;) Good luck :ok
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Re: PL Exclusive - DTD Poker Freeroll - 3 seats for DTD Grand Prix - €210 added I'll be joining this one, looking forward to being raped by fellow PL members :nana
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Re: SportsGreatest's Football Log. Promising start mate, keep it up :ok One thing though - please don't edit posts that include bets. If you make a mistake, just make a new post pointing out the error - else it'll look like you could've gone and changed your bet after the event :)
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Re: Jenspm tries to poke 'er Played the $100 freeroll on Betfair, finished 5th/1500 for $5.50 :) Came in to the final table as chip leader, but got three bad beats in a row (opponent all-in, my hand better but he wins), and ended up having to go all in with K9o with something like 3BB's and got beat by A7o.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Actually, I'll see if I can derive a profitable formula for spread betting from the Kelly Criterion tomorrow..
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I understand that, however, if you use points-staking your profits will drop and yields rise (I'd bet). Why? Because you have to account for high-stake bets. I wouldn't stake more than £1 on a single game, so then £1 would have to be your max stake, while the one-point matches would have to be like 10p. With level stakes, you'd be betting, say, 75p per bet at a lower-yield, higher-stakes and higher-profit system. (I think, too tired atm for maths, will take another look tomorrow)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? all the data I posted is taken directly from your spreadsheet mate :)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I'm definitely not a fan of percentage betting, I must say. Just had a quick look at your spreadsheet and have a few thoughts, - In my opinion, the staking system has to go and be swapped out with a level stakes system. The reason for this is that a big staked-loss has a massive impact on your bank and what you can stake elsewhere. You had a 40pt loss at one point, for example. - With level 1pt stakes, your biggest streak of losses (ie, had you started at this point the lowest your bank would ever be) was -18pts, thus the lowest point your bank would have ever seen if you jumped in at the worst possible moment in this stream of bets is 82pts. - The above example would limit you to 10 bets at a time, or 8 bets at your lowest point. As far as I can see, your maximum number of bets pr. day so far has been 5. - For you to have to not able to bet as much as you'd like (5 bets), and halve your bank, you'd have to hit a run 3 times worse than your worst ever run at the start of your session - £1 stakes would give you a profit of £148 over the course of 301 bets, an impressive total ROI of 148% - An average losing bet at £1 stakes is at £2.6. That's 2.6% of your bank and pretty 'safe'. - The chance of a bet losing more than £4 is 10% Anyways, I'd personally go for 50p stakes, but you'd be unlucky to not get away with £1 stakes in my opinion.
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Re: World cycling championships 29 Sep - 3 Oct Good stuff Sasquatch :clap
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Re: World cycling championships 29 Sep - 3 Oct Hushovd :loon
Hello again
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Hi guys, long time no see. I've had a busy year - moved to a new place with no TV and swamped with work. Completely out of a lot of sports, haven't really followed anything but my beloved Chelsea, and haven't placed a single bet in ages. Haven't visited this forum in ages either. I've withdrawn almost all of the money I had on betting web-sites, in an attempt to restrict myself as I ease my way back. I'll probably add funds as I go along, but at this point I have about 200pts spread between three bookmakers: Unibet, Bet365 and Betfair. Oh, and there's a staking system involved. I'll aim to win 2% of my bank on every bet, with the maximum stake being 5% (to avoid bank-busting low-odds losers). This percentage is calculated at the start of every month. This means that throughout the entirety of July, I will be looking to win 4pts pr. bet, with a maximum stake of 10pts. It is, as I said, an attempt to ease my way back. I'm not near into this stuff enough atm to be giving any tips in the tips threads yet, but this little project should be enough to get me back into it again. Oh, and it's good to be back. Hi guys :)