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Jenspm

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    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary I have been thinking about whether or not I should include follows in this, and I have decided that I will for three reasons: 1) shows my recognition and appreciation to PL tipsters , 2) brings in tips that aren't otherwise on this site (e.g. from my friends and the like) and 3) I bet on them myself, so I think they should be included in the diary. I will, however, from now on make it a lot more clear whether picks are my own or others', I will credit anyone I follow from PuntersLounge, and I will post separate stats for my own picks and follows, so as to not steal credit from other people's work. Any objections/questions, shoot. If people don't want me to post follows, then, well, I won't :) That Wolves pick was my own, by the way, these three are follows: Bet 11: J. Zheng to beat J. Jankovic: 1.43pts @ 2.36 - Pinnacle Bet 12: D. Hantuchova to beat F. Pennetta: 2.86pts @ 1.694 - Pinnacle Bet 13: N. Davydenko to beat M. Fish in first set: 2.05pts @ 2.87 - Pinnacle

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Going to price up the week-end's games early this time, I think. Currently working Wolves - Fulham, I feel I have a pretty good read. Hopefully should have something ready by tonight. Does anyone have a good, relatively in-depth match report on the Blackburn - Wolves game? Something that includes tactical issues as well, and not just "what happened when"..? I have the Fulham-Villa match recorded, so that should be fine.

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Bet 8: Loss -1.82pts Bet 9: Win +2.00pts Finally broke my 7-bet losing streak. Phew. Anyways, ugly stats time: Bets: 9 Wins: 2 Win %: 22% Staked: 14.44pts P/L: -5.39pts Yield: -37% Original Bank: 102.87pts Current Bank: 97.48pts Total growth: -5%

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary

    Agree, fine value in Chelsea. I would have played that to if, I had not been away for the weekend. Bad luck on Aalborg, I missed that game to ... as spectator though ;) I am wondering how you fx is finding the value (as a method) in Sunderland not to score in the Liverpool game. You say you just look over odds and coupon to save time, but its a whole lot of odds to look through, if you look through all odds on every game??? (that is time consuming to me) Have you considered just to concentrate on home, draw and away and then do your own probabilities? I know, you find it time consuming, so maybe you just need to find a more rationel way to do them??? Anyway, I follow youre diary, great reading, and I hope you will end up in green. GL.
    Cheers. I generally do concentrate on 1X2, but there are times when I have a feeling that specific markets may be overpriced (e.g. Liverpool clean sheet), so I check out the odds/do research. Most of the time I don't end up betting, mind. :)

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary I think 1.97 is the most we'll get, grabbed 1.962 at Pinnacle (Stupid thing went down jsut as I submitted...). Still gives a fine value of almost 108% according to my prediction :) Soo Bet 7: English Premier League, Football Stoke v Chelsea: Chelsea 2pts @ 1.962 - Pinnacle

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Oooh, Chelsea are rising into the value zone now. I have the 1X2 lined up as 17% - 28% - 55%, and the (1-0) handicap at 45% - 26% - 29% Chelsea currently at 1.88, not sure how long I can afford to wait.. edit- 1.97 now

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary I know nothing about this sport, but this one has been tipped by some guys who I know know their stuff, so I'm jumping in. Bet 6: Badminton World Championship Mixed Double finals - Nan Zhang/Zhao Yunlei v Chris Adcock/Imogen Bankier: Adcock/Bankier 0.8pts @ 3.35 - Pinnacle

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Shit, I'd forgotten how stressing this is. Following the odds of the Aalborg - Odense game, Aalborg jumped to 3.19, internet crashed, got back online within minutes, but they were then down to 3.13, bet365 now just posted 3.20, but I realised it's registered to my Norwegian address which means I can't deposit sums to my empty account. I've now requested a move, let's see how quick they are :hope Bah, I've missed this :D

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary

    Hey mate. This looks interesting. I'm also doing something similar for very similar reasons. What's your staking when the odds pass 1.7 then? I've always done level staking, but when the odds are high, I'd find a way to bring them down, for example, by taking the team on the +0.5 handicap. But then, I have a nagging doubt in my head that whilst the away win may be value, the draw may not therefore taking on the insurance of the draw decreases the variance, but also decreases the value of the bet. And of course, long-term, that isn't good. I'm also toying with trading this season. Although I believe that having the discipline to have the stop-loss is the most important thing and I don't think I have that at the moment. For the returns I think you would need to stake a big amount. So, I have a bet this weekend for 1pt and the odds have dropped as I suspected. To close out now would only give me a profit of 0.05pts, so you would probably need a stake of 10-20pts to be generating healthy returns. This is a large percentage of the bank but as long as you don't let it get in-play and your picks are sound and you are taking it at the right time, it should be good. My mistakes last season were stupid things like betting on Saturday morning and expecting a swing by the afternoon, and only partially closing/not closing at all when the market went against me (particularly if I had laid the favourite).
    Use the scroll bar in the odds/stake box, and you'll get my stakes for odds all the way to 30 :) As for your use of +0.5 etc - if I have a set of percentages for 1X2, I'll always check all the asian lines as well to see if I can find better value there than I could find in the 1X2 market. You can quite often find that the +0.5 pick gives more value.

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Reasoning for my Liverpool bet can be found here, btw. Keeping an eye out on the Borussia Dortmund odds atm.. They are flying - bumped from 1.75 to 1.90 so far today. I've not been paying enough attention to make any good judgement of where it might top out, nor do I have a good enough read to feel confident in diving in atm, but I'll be watching it with my sights set on backing the away team.

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary Been off on holiday with the girlfriend for a week, but 'tis time to continue. At work so no time for a write-up, but I will try to post one later tonight. Bet 2: English Premier League Liverpool v Sunderland: Away team to Score? No. 1.67pts @ 2.15 - Unibet

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