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Jenspm

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    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Probably due to a seeming lack of interest in a mass sprint. I believe Hushovd said that he's "90% sure a break-away will go all the way". Also, the Tour has never ended in a mass sprint in this city before. I'd look into laying Cav, but I can't access Betfair from work..

    Betting for a living

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Betting for a living

    The only times a hedge is warranted is in one off events like ante-post bets where you may only have 2-3 a year at long odds and is unlikely to significantly effect the bigger picture. The other is when you have bet an event for more than your usual stake specifically to get a bigger edge' date=' but in essence that’s trading not betting.[/quote'] ..or when the lay odds are lower than what they should be, hence representing value and thus maximizing profit. :) Good thread, I'll be following with interest :ok

    Norwegian Tippeligaen 2011

    in Other European Leagues Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Norwegian Tippeligaen 2011 Rosenborg v Strømsgodset Strømsgodset @ 10.00 - Bet3000 These odds are insane. Sure, Rosenborg are a big name, sure Strømsgodset are a poor away team, but 10 is far too high even for them. Rosenborg aren't the team they once were. They seem to have hit a recent run of form, but they've hardly been impressive victories. Against Sarpsborg they were expected to win big, and they did (4-0), but that's barely worth noting. They only just got past Lillestrøm in the cup (and were lucky in doing so) on penalties. Their main striker, and best player, Prica, has been out for a while, but is expected to return here - not sure how well he's going to perform in his first match back from injury. Rosenborg are rightfully favourites, but this is just severe. Strømsgodset are a young, talented team, and on a good day they can beat anyone. It's just that these good days tend to be at home. However, this has improved. Coach Deila has really worked well with his young team, and they seemed to have gained composure and maturity, which is reflected in their away performances. Last round they impressively held Vålerenga (normally strong at home) to a 2-2 draw away. They beat Haugesund 3-1 at home the round before that, and are currently lying sweetly in fourth place. As I said, they're a young team, and young teams tend to perform in waves with high tops and low bottoms. They're on their way up a wave now, and at these odds I think they're worth backing.

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Aye, unlucky. Nice call on Goss though, looked a good bet with those odds. I feel like a fun bet tomorrow. Stage 7: Nationality of most combative rider French @ 2.02 - Unibet I guess this isn't the most popular market to bet on, but I think there's value here, actually. Firstly, let's have a look at the winners so far: Stage 1: QUEMENEUR Perrig (FRA) Stage 2: - Stage 3: DELAGE Mickaël (FRA) Stage 4: ROY Jérémy (FRA) Stage 5: GUTIERREZ José Ivan (ESP) Stage 6: MALORI Adriano (ITA) Basically, three Frenchies in the first three stages, which is hardly surprising. The riders and their teams like some TV-time. Those three stages looked like this: PROFILVIGNETTE.gifPROFILVIGNETTE.gifPROFILVIGNETTE.gif Ie, they look destined for a grouping up before the finish - the chances of a break-away going in are slim. Now, looking at the two last stages: PROFILVIGNETTE.gifPROFILVIGNETTE.gif ..and the prospect of a break-away going in seems quite a bit more likely. This means, then, that more people will attempt a break away for more than just 15 minutes of fame. Now, look at tomorrow's stage. PROFILVIGNETTE.gif Flat flat flat flat flat. Looks absolutely destined for a group-finish, and I cannot imagine many riders have ambitions of breaking away and winning on a stage like this. There is no way the sprint teams will let a break-away go in, and there's no way Garmin Cervelo will let Hushovd lose the yellow on this stage. It should be easy peasy to catch someone here. But then again, if you're French, you get that added bonus of being TV, as we saw in the early stages. And if you're French, you're probably on a French team, and the people who pay for said French team would want their logo plastered into people's brains for as long as possible. I think the chances of a French "win" here is definitely over 50% - worth a bet, I think.

    Hello again

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Hello again Actually, come to think of it, I was accessing it from work where we have a French IP address.. Yeah, I'm on Betfair at work, deal with it :D Dunno what it is then, maybe Betfair has a problem with the Frenchies.

    Hello again

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Hello again

    Bad luck Jens :@ I hope you have better luck on this thread :ok
    Cheers :) Yeah, Norway banned international betting firms a while back, essentially making the market a monopoly for the government-run bookie. The ban was on withdrawal of money from these firms, which is why I can still bet as I'll just withdraw the money to my Scotish account and all is well. However, for some reason (I think on their own initiative, actually), Betfair has decided to restrict Norwegian IP-addresses from even logging in..

    Hello again

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Hello again Oh, and due to reasons seen in my signature, I cannot log into Betfair from Norway.. :eyes I'll have to wait 'til I get my laptop back from repairs and see if it works with Geek's Toy or similar. Ugh. Bank update then, without Betfair.. Unibet: 17.37pts (-1.88) Bet365: 43.68pts (+4.00)

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Very annoyed that the commentators called Uran Boasson Hagen too. When they called him I was already counting my money, then was perplexed as to why he didn't just sprint past. I guess now i know why :lol
    Our (Norwegian) commentators made the same mistake for quite a while, heh. Besides, I'm not sure he would've been able to sprint, none of them seemed up for it.. Looked like it was all in slow motion.

    Norwegian Tippeligaen 2011

    in Other European Leagues Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Norwegian Tippeligaen 2011 Lots of money being put on Fredriksad today, and Tromsø's odds have been flying. Tromsø have jumped from 3.40 to 3.77 over the last 24 hours, and I wouldn't be surprised if this continues up to the 3.90's at kick-off. I think this is an overreaction to Tromsø's recent sales (of albeit key players) and Fredrikstad's recent (statistical) form, carried on by an in-form Tarik Elyounoussi. I'll do some more research after work, but a bet on Tromsø is definitely on my short-list if the odds keep rising..

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