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Jenspm

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Posts posted by Jenspm

    UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August Shamrock Rovers v FC København FC København @ 1.75 - Canbet, SBObet (Pinnacle @ 1.69) Odds have been steadily rising from the starting price which was around 1.4-1.45, and I doubt they'll go higher than this. Shamrock did do surprisingly well to get out of Copenhagen with only a 1-0 loss, but the Danes seemed to lack concentration in that match, as if they'd underestimated their opponent. They are a solid team though, a team with routine, and I'm sure they'll be well-organised and concentrated in this one. Yes, 0-0 will be enough for them, but I doubt they'll want to sit back on that against a team they're far better than. They'll want to go out and control the game, and preferably win this by a couple of goals. Shamrock will have to move forward at some point, which will open up for a goal for the away side. Sorry for the very brief write-up, guests are arriving :\

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary [i need your help!]

    Note: Seeing a rise in the odds for FC Copenhagen against Shamrock in the Champions League qualifiers tonight. Opened around 1.40-1.45, and is now at 1.66. To win to nil has similarly jumped from 2.12 to 2.50 which is a very interesting bet as well. Similar movements can be found in the correct score markets (0-1, 0-2 being the most interesting). I'll give it a proper look when I get home from work :)
    Just hit 1.70 at some bookies, and I think that's the highest it's going to get. So.. Bet 1: Champions League Qualifiers Shamrock Rovers v FC København: FC København 2.86pts @ 1.69 - Pinnacle (yeah, my starting bank is 100pts) :hope (I'll see if I have time for a write-up before the game starts, guests arrive in not too long though, so it will be tight)

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary [i need your help!] Note: Seeing a rise in the odds for FC Copenhagen against Shamrock in the Champions League qualifiers tonight. Opened around 1.40-1.45, and is now at 1.66. To win to nil has similarly jumped from 2.12 to 2.50 which is a very interesting bet as well. Similar movements can be found in the correct score markets (0-1, 0-2 being the most interesting). I'll give it a proper look when I get home from work :)

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary [i need your help!] Thanks mate, solid advice :) Yeah, I only ever trade pre-match - in-play trading is too risky for me, especially with regards to internet failures and the like. I also make sure I'm out of the market at least 3 minutes before it starts, to avoid unwanted issues. I'll take a look at your system and work from that. I will probably notch down the stakes a bit, though, as I'm not prepared to risk 54% of my bank on a trade! This could involve bumping up the stop-loss percentage-of-stake, but that would also create issues regarding expected winnings. That said, I could also afford to go for lower profits, as trades are often more consistent and come more often than other bets :)

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary [i need your help!] I'd like to start off with a potential bet I jotted down a couple of days ago. Take Note- Athletics World Championship, Javelin: Andreas Torkildsen. This guy has won pretty much everything of big competitions in recent years, and should be a massive favourite in this one. It's a typical bet where the bookies might be a bit large to start out with early on, and then we'll see the odds gradually fall as we near the event. Could be a potential trade or plain bet if the opening odds are good. Competition starts September 1st. I can't find any bookies offering odds yet, but if anyone spots anything, feel free to shout! :)

    Jenspm's proper betting diary

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Right, I think it's time for me to actually sit down and do my betting properly. I've always taken it seriously, mind, but I haven't really tracked my profit like I should. As I said in my "hi again" thread, I've recently come out of a betting hiatus, but I feel ready now, so I'm starting a-fresh. I currently have next-to-zero in all my betting accounts, so I plan on depositing "fresh" (being money that essentially was withdrawn when I took a break) money to a range of bookies. But more on that later, first of all, a short intro on how I bet. I've always been very thorough with my betting. Value has, of course, always been the key to every bet I make. However, while I used to work out percentages on every market I bet on, I now feel that I can spot value when I see it. Not long ago, I'd sit down and work out the percentages of every single match on the card before looking at the odds, and then grab anything with value. While this is, in my opinion, the purest form of sports betting (and I will always admire anyone who does this), it is extremely time consuming, and I really don't have time for that anymore. So, nowadays, I'll take a look at the markets, note down what bets are of interest (By hand. All betting should be done by hand!), and then work out percentages on those, and then find the value, and then place the bet. I will also take note of potential market movers, and keep an eye on them with a look at either trading or placing a bet, depending on how the odds shift. I will try to keep this thread updated with my notes, as well as the respective threads here on PL (I echo Atko's message in his thread - it would be stealing from the forums to stop contributing to anything but my own thread). Also, I do read other people's tips. I never blindly follow, but if I find a good tip, I'll do my own research and place a bet if I feel it's good. I'll of course credit any PL tipster I take inspiration from! But meh, that stuff really isn't new. What I find really interesting though, is staking plans (nerd? me? no.. :( ). From my days of constant percentage-whoring, I used to use my own modified version of the Kelly Criteria. However, as I found out, I am, in fact, not a God, so my percentages are not always correct. A couple points off here and there can be pretty catastrophic with a staking system like that. I felt though, that I was pretty good at finding value. I switched over to a less risky level-staking system, and it worked well for me. I set the level stakes at 2% of my bankroll, and recalculated that once a month. Level stakes is, generally, the best way to maximise profit, in my opinion. However, I felt that a staking system like this gave less importance to low-odds bets and more importance to high-odds bets on my short-term bankroll (long term, of course, it wouldn't matter, but a bad month does affect the next month in terms of stake sizes). So thus, I arrived at my current staking plan. It is based on percentages, calculated from my bankroll at the start of every month (so I'll be staking the same amount for every even-odds bet throughout August). It is based on two ideas: 1) I want to look to win around 2% of my bankroll for every bet, and 2) I don't ever want to stake more than 5% of my bankroll. It is calculated for every 5-tick gap on the betfair odds ladder. Hence, it looks like this (scroll for more): I'm pretty set on this, so it's going to take quite a bit to convince me to change it! However, what I would like some input on is this: what kind of staking plan would you recommend for trading? As you may be able to see, I base a lot of my staking/betting on risk, but with trading the risk isn't easy to define. If I define it as my opening stake, the profit would be far too low to be worth the effort. Should I try to figure out some sort of average loss? Should I incorporate a stop-loss? If so, how large should this loss be? I'm tempted to put a stop-loss at around 2% of my total bankroll, but then what should I be staking? If I stake too much, I'll be trading out of a lot of potential profits, and if I stake too little I can see heavy losses compared to profit. I've traded quite a bit before, but never with a set staking plan. Any input on this would be much appreciated! And finally, I'd like some input on my chosen bookies. So far, I have: Betfair, Bet365, Pinnacle, Unibet and Bwin, for different reasons. I may add Betsafe to the list as well. If anyone is missing a firm from the list, give me a shout! This whole thing has a second dimension as well: online gambling is illegal in Norway, which makes depositing/withdrawing money from Norwegian banks a bit of an effort. I am in the process of changing the currency of my betting accounts to GBP and transferring money from my Norwegian account to my Scottish one, so once that's done I should be able to start depositing to these betting firms and start this betting thing (unless they want confirmation of my address in Scotland, which will take even longer, but nothing more than a couple of weeks). So, I should be up and running in a couple of weeks. Until then, I'll be happy to take a discussion on staking, betting, trading, bookies, books, movies and women (and men, I guess). Would also like to decide on bookies and trade-staking before I start, anyway. And don't be afraid of filling this thread with any sort of debate or argument, I like that :) Either that, or we let this thread die until I can finally start betting and keep this alive myself :ok Much love.

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Legend? Despite wearing yellow and having a team mate in the final selection he forced Evans to do all the chasing. Piss poor if you ask me.
    No-one expected him to be even close to keeping it after today's stage, or last stage for that matter. He's not built for climbs like this, yet he managed to stay up there with the top riders on the second-toughest stage of the tour. Amazing show of will-power, just like '04.

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    I think that's safe. Particularly seeing as the French wont have won a stage all tour! Uran @ 130 Betfair (Pick) Talk of some climbers potentially struggling with the high altitude, yet those climbers are still much shorter to win than Uran, who is Colombian and basically grew up at these heights. He is well down on time to Yellow contenders so if he attacks he will enjoy a similar level of leeway to what Vanendert did when he won. Given this is the only way Vanendert can probably win this stage and he is 15.5, then why is Uran, who is so comfortable at these heights, so much longer? Alternatively, and more likely, Contador will attack. In the Giro only the Colombian Rujano could follow him and on that day Contador let the Colombian take the stage in exchange for riding with him, so maybe history can repeat.
    Furthermore, Sky's manager said yesterday that Edvald & co will "work for Uran tomorrow" - it's clear that he's their (rightful) captain in the next couple of stages, and they all seem ready to help him however much they can (though I suspect at on an extreme stage like this, he'll have to do a lot of the work himself, of course)

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Amazing effort by the Norwegians. Are you taking over the world!? Would make Boasson Hagen a big favourite from here though!
    To quote the Norwegian commentator as Hagen crossed the line to win his first stage: "We own the world of cycling" :lol Hagen would indeed be the big favourite at this point. What Petacchi is doing there I have no idea.. No chance on the green and surely not on the stage either? Looks like they might let this one go, now that Rojas and Gilbert are out.. No big names for the GC in it, no guys especially close to the yellow.. :hope

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Stage 13: Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 15 - Betfred, Willhill With Bradley Wiggans out of the race, and Edvald and Thomas out of the white jersey, Sky have had to drastically shift their focus towards one thing: stage wins. Both Hagen and Thomas were told today to either go for the break-away or sit back and relax (and they'll be given the same orders tomorrow); Thomas went and Boasson hung back, but the Norwegian did look strong (and has looked strong all week), and I think he'll make a solid attempt at a break-away tomorrow. He didn't waste a lot of energy today and seems full of confidence. If he manages to get away early with some riders outside of the GC, I think he has a solid chance. The long downhill finish at the end means that several brake away groups will probably join up before the finish, and of them Boasson Hagen is by far the better sprinter. If it ends in a sprint between 30 riders, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the clear favourite to win it. I also considered Hushovd, but even though he may be in the form of his life for this Tour, I think the fight for yellow tired him out, and he said he was extremely tired after today's stage. Still though, he is one of the absolute best downhill riders on the Tour, and if he's not too far back at the top, he might well catch them on the way down.. Betfred and Sportingbet are offering odds of 34. Can you tell I'm Norwegian? Nahh
    Both are in the break-away! :loon For you live-betters, be wary of jumping on Hushovd to early. Like I said, he was tired after yesterday, and his coach just tweeted this: "Thor had a tough day yesterday. Today, he was going to 'sniff' at a break-away, but the plan was to save energy for next week. We'll see what happens" Mind, he can afford a pretty decent gap to the front at the top, his downhill riding skills are immense. Also, he reached the top of this mountain easily with the big GC guys last year.

    Hello again

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Hello again Caved in and put all of my bet365 funding into hornet's golf bets. Oops. That was 6pts for the outrights and 3pts for the e/w's. (I was going to up the stakes anyway, so if I lose I'll jut deposit more, if I win I'll live off that. This isn't lack of discipline, I promise. Ish.) I also had a bet I forgot to tell you about, which was another France-winning-nationality bet on the tdf stage the day before yesterday. I really cannot be bothered to run separate spreadsheets for this, so if you'll forgive me and let me include it in the stats for simplicity then that would be nice. It's not like it makes a huge impact next to this British Open stuff anyway. I will post a screenshot of betting-history as proof, after the week-end (at work now, heading straight on the train afterwords). So basically, fingers crossed for hornet's system :hope And also, I'll post a proper spreadsheet next week where I give credit on each bet if I've followed something on PL.

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Stage 13: Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 15 - Betfred, Willhill With Bradley Wiggans out of the race, and Edvald and Thomas out of the white jersey, Sky have had to drastically shift their focus towards one thing: stage wins. Both Hagen and Thomas were told today to either go for the break-away or sit back and relax (and they'll be given the same orders tomorrow); Thomas went and Boasson hung back, but the Norwegian did look strong (and has looked strong all week), and I think he'll make a solid attempt at a break-away tomorrow. He didn't waste a lot of energy today and seems full of confidence. If he manages to get away early with some riders outside of the GC, I think he has a solid chance. The long downhill finish at the end means that several brake away groups will probably join up before the finish, and of them Boasson Hagen is by far the better sprinter. If it ends in a sprint between 30 riders, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the clear favourite to win it. I also considered Hushovd, but even though he may be in the form of his life for this Tour, I think the fight for yellow tired him out, and he said he was extremely tired after today's stage. Still though, he is one of the absolute best downhill riders on the Tour, and if he's not too far back at the top, he might well catch them on the way down.. Betfred and Sportingbet are offering odds of 34. Can you tell I'm Norwegian? Nahh

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Certainly worked out well for Lotto' date=' though I'm not entirely sure if the Gilbert break was preplanned - probably just serendipitous that it helped out Greipel.[/quote'] Nah, Gilbert said it was "what Greipel wanted"

    Cycling 2011

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

    Cav was a victim of not having a train. He gets a fair bit lost without them to help him time his efforts which you could really see today. When Gilbert attacked I thought it was quite a stupid move because he'd be spent if he got caught. Personally over this tour though. The breaks aren't being allowed to get away like they have been in the past which completely kills my edge.
    It was a brilliant move by Gilbert and Lotto, completely killed Cav's train. Garmin-Cervelo did the same as well with David Millar, no doubt in an attempt to tire out the HTC-Highroad team. I think we'll see more of this in the future as well, which is pretty interesting. The other sprint teams don't have the same train, and can afford to send out riders like that to isolate Cav - they have a better chance head-to-head than against his 9-man train of yellow and white.
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