Jenspm
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Posts posted by Jenspm
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Re: Tour De France I'm actually backing Martin here. His starting position isn't optimal, but I still think him not winning will require either an absolutely incredible ride by Froome or an accident for Martin. To be honest, I was expecting sub-1.40s, so I'm happy to take 1.44 with Coral. Think it's at least a fair price, and actually a few ticks too high.
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Re: Tour De France I agree with Primevil here, I don't think this is as obvious a bunch-up sprint as people might think. It's hilly and can be extremely windy. A break-away could well come in if they get a decent lead. Happened last time they were here.It's also the only stage in Bretagne, where Sojasun have their base, and I'd be surprised if they didn't set out to entertain here. Oh that basis, I've picked one rider for a potential break-away win: Julien Simon. He's on Sojasun and actually has a decent sprint - could well be a part of a break-away.Sorry I've posted this late - grabbed him at 500 at WillHill, where he's now 210, but he's still available at 500 at YouWin.Julien Simon @ 500 - WilliamHill, YouWin
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Re: Tour De France Rolland did me proud today - best price 1.61 (Bet365) for KOTM now.
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Re: New To Golf Betting Outright markets offer the best value imo. Some value can be found in match-bets as well, but you won't be able to achieve near the same ROI in my experience.
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Re: Tour De France I like those picks, Crouch. I've taken some Pierre Rolland KOTM at 2.85 with Coral to add to my Mikel Nieve (taken at 24/1 pre-tour). It's a decent price given his positioning and that it's his main goal this tour - there are some tough mountains yet to climb, but he should have the climbing pedigree to do it. Also, he'll be allowed to break away - don't think Sky are interested in him, nor will they end up with the polka dots, imo.
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Re: Tour De France Yeah, decent winnings in the end. I backed some Sagan small at 4.2 when I saw Cannondale chasing the break-outs early on, so a 10pt profit for me on the stage. :)
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Re: Tour De France Right-o, I've already layed Greipel and layed Cavendish, and I've now added a small back of Lars Petter Nordhaug at 209/1 on Betfair, with a view to laying some of it off if he gets in a break that stabilises.So my book is now:Greipel (layed at 7.0): -8.5ptsCavendish (layed at 3.4): -8.5ptsNordhaug (backed at 210): +120ptsField: +5.8pts
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Re: Tour De France I'm amazed at how low Cav and Greipel's odds are on this stage. Have I read the profile wrong? This stage is the toughest yet and has Sagan written all over it for me. Layed the two of them at 3.4 and 7 respectively. I also reckon we have a decent chance at seeing some break-aways as this is the last chance for some of the supporting riders to have a go before they have to protect their captains in the mountains. I'm a bit annoyed though because I've had one name written down in bold for this stage since day 1 - Lars Petter Nordhaug. He's in absolutely fantastic shape and is full of confidence, just itching to get into a break-away. And this would be an ideal stage - the last before he has to concentrate on protecting Mollema. He tried on stage 2, but it didn't work out. After yesterday's stage, he said he was hoping he could "stretch his legs" on this one, and reiterated that he was in fantastic shape. I really think he'll be in a break this stage - if it holds remains to be seen. Sadly, though, only one bookie has priced him up - BetVictor at a measly 100/1 (they've priced Froome at the same price.. Jokers). I had him down as a definite for a big-odds punt, but those odds aren't great.. I'll have to check if there's anything work backing on Betfair in the morning :(
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Re: Tour De France I think a lot of his team-mates were exhausted after all the positioning in the wind tbh. They were up at the front far more often than Lotto.
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Re: Tour De France Just saying, there are pretty big side winds here which can (and has perviously) split the peleton. It happened to Hushovd a couple of years ago, and it can well happen again. Yes, neither Greenedge nor Quick Step will allow this and will be aware, but it's worth noting. Furthermore, as addpea notes, Lotto have a decent train and just couldn't make it work yesterday - Greipel will be desperate for a win, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took it here, his last chance in a long long while. Indeed, every sprinter will be 100% motivated for this, including the likes of Alexander Kristoff (who I grabbed yesterday tiny at 40/1 e/w). Again, Cav is the obvious pick and is rightly a huge favourite, but I just don't find much value in these odds. But that said, there are far worse places to put your money imo.
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Re: Tour De France Yepp, I agree - mass sprint time. Coral are really keen on laying Cav in this one, and have him priced at 5/1 - which I am more than happy to take. I think his price has been inflated because the mountain is, as you say, early on and is, imo, slightly overrated. Furthermore, there are the reports of his illness, but he did well in today's TTT, which is good. Also, it's Mark Cavendish. I think Peter Sagan is overrated in this race (again because of the overrated mountain), and should be opposed. Kittel looks big at 16/1 (again with Coral), and as they're paying out four places in this, he has to be backed in my opinion. That's 4/1 for him to, for example, finish fourth behind Cav, Greipel and Sagan. 3.5pts Mark Cavendish win @ 5/1 - Coral 1pt Marcel Kittel e/w (1/4 odds 4 places) @ 16/1 - Coral
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Re: Tour De France Well that was a disappointment. Not a great ride at all by BMC.
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Re: Tour De France I think this tempo is all about looking at the big odds. As you say, Thomas is out with injury, as is Tony Martin. But it's also a short TT, which should, imo, make it slightly more unpredictable. I've gone relatively heavily (2pts) with BMC at 16/1 e/w (1/4 odds for 3 places) with Ladbrokes, which looks cracking to me. They finished 2nd in the team TT in 2011, and have managed to keep most of their team from that. The Norwegian media has been up in arms about them dropping Hushovd, arguing that they'd have a huge chance on this stage if he was still there, and indeed he was one of their best in 2011. Still, from 2011 they've replaced Hushovd, Santaromita and Hincapie with Schär, Van Garderen and Gilbert, which ain't bad. Gilbert was Belgian TT Champion in 2011. In 2010 Van Garderen finished second in a strong field in the prologue of the Criterium de Dauphine, behind Contador, but ahead of the likes of G. Thomas, Menchov, Brajvokic and Boasson Hagen. He finished fourth in a TT later in the same tour. He came second in the TT in Tour de Suisse in 2011 behind Fabian Cancellara, and in the 2012 Tour de France he finished fourth in the prologue, and fourth in the 9th stage TT. That year he also won Tour of California, winning the TT stage in the process. Schär I have to admit to knowing little about, but he's a Swiss one-time junior and two-time Under-23 TT champion, Swiss road champion of this year and won the TTT in Tour of Qatar this year as well.
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Re: Tour De France
That's a stunning price there, well spotted. I've thrown some money at Francesco Gavazzi e/w at 66/1 with PaddyPower. He's another one of these 'hill sprinters' so the profile of the stage should suit him. If Astana and others push hard enough to drop Cavendish and Greipel, Gavazzi should have a decent chance and is expected to go for it either way. Was held up in the crash on the first stage. edit- added Boasson Hagen as well, at 16/1 with Coral - finish should suit him, and again, he's one of those sprinters who climbs well. Gone with a win-only as I'm not sure 4/1 on him to place is worth any money.Have taken an early speculative wager on Matthew Goss to win tomorrow (67 - Bet 365) By no means is a sprint finish guaranteed but I can't possibly have Sagan at sub 3's. Either it's a sprint and there will be other sprinters there or the sprinters won't be there, in which case there will be a lot of late attacks. If I can find a breakaway contender I like I might add them to the list but if a portion of the sprinters do make it over the climbs then I think Goss is more likely to than the likes of Cav, Greipel and Cavendish. -
Re: Tour De France 2.5pts Bauke Mollema: Over 0.5 stage wins @ 5/1 - Bwin I think there's decent value in this bet - he's in great form after coming second overall and winning a stage in the Tour de Suisse and will therefore captain the Belkin team. It is worth noting that he isn't known for winning stages, and his overall goal is not stage wins, but rather finishing in the top 10. Even so - if the Tour de Suisse is anything to go by (which it tends to be), his form is good and 5/1 for a stage win ain't bad.
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Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Got some money on a lay of Sturridge to score at 1.68.. It's simply far too low - hasn't played in ages, and will definitely not play the entire game imo. He does have a good record in the cup, but I can only imagine he'll be rusty.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan
Few, was a bit worried there. But a 67' goal from substitute Bojan and an 87' goal from substitute Paolucci saved me. 2-1 Final Score. :okQuick one from me: AC Milan v Siena Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 2.20 - Boylesports (Meridian @ 2.15; Coral, Bet365 @ 2.10) -
Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan Quick one from me: AC Milan v Siena Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 2.20 - Boylesports (Meridian @ 2.15; Coral, Bet365 @ 2.10) Milan are missing their four first choices at centreback, with Mexes (11 apps), Yepes (10 apps), Bonera (9 apps) and Zapata (6 apps) all out for this game. Their back line should thus be Abate - Acerbi - De Sciglio - Constant. AC Milan have not exactly been defensively solid this year. They've only held clean sheets in 2 of their last 7 home games - they goals they've allowed have often been cheap and the result of poor lapses of concentration - can we see this change with a makeshift back-line? Probably not. Siena aren't the biggest striking force in the league, but they'd scored in five straight games prior to Napoli before Christmas. Siena should have a good chance of getting on the score sheet today. 2.2 on both to score looks very good indeed.
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Re: Chelsea v Reading > August 22 I've had a dig through some stats, and though I have little to go by for Reading (stats-wise), I think laying the 'Any Unquoted' might be the bet I'd go for in this match. When Chelea have been 1.3 favourites or better at home, the Any Unquoted result was only achieved once in nine games last season, and twice in thirteen the season before. In 09/10 they notched up an impressive 6 AUs in 12 games, but in 08/09 they were down to 2 from 10 again. If we broaden the scope to 1.4 or better, we get the following: 2011-12: 2/13 2010-11: 2/14 2009-10: 7/14 2008-09: 3/12 at 1.25 or better, there aren't a lot of matches, but the stats anyway are like so: 2011-12: 1/3 2010-11: 2/11 2009-10: 6/12 2008-09: 1/7 So the 09/10 season is both an anamoly in our stats and, after all, three season ago. Key stat: When Chelsea have been priced at 1.3 or better at home, the Any Unquoted scoreline has appeared just three times in the last 22 games. Bet: Lay Any Unquoted @ 4.6
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I completely agree with you, and just wanted to pip by to say that he's been made underdog to win his opening round three-ball against Molinari and Gallacher at Bet365, at odds of 3.6. I've jumped on this, looks far too high. (edit- On second glance it looks like it's probably a mistake, wouldn't be surprised if my bet is voided)L.Oosthuizen to win Scottish Open, 2pts EW @ 33/1 SportingBet (1/4 odds 1-6) I like the South African's chances here. With scoring due to be low, we need someone that's great with the short stick and Louis is the man. Added to that a terrific iron game as well as a guy who can play well in the wind, as proved when winning the Open a couple of years back, he has a very solid EW chance indeed. World No 20 and 2 wins to his name this year too. -
I see Paddy Power are offering 8/1 on Froome to grab KotM - which sounds like a good shout to me. Should follow his captain all the way over the mountains, which should get him a lot of points, and the way the points are payed out now, it tends to reward the favourites. And, furthermore, with Sky looking good for the yellow, riding partly for the polka dot doesn't seem out of the question, and I'm sure Froome will be in the running for a similar stage win to what he had (which will get him a lot of points). Thoughts?
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Looks like Woods is massively over-backed again after his win at the week-end. Down into 7.4 now and clear favourite, which I'm not sure he deserves. His driving was hardly consistent, which doesn't bode well on a tough links course like this. He's won the open three times, sure, but two of them were at St Andrews, a course even I've survived on on several occasions - there's little rough and the fairways are generous. This course is a different story - he finished 25th last time the Open was here, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes thereabouts this year as well. It looks to me like a typical post-victory Woods bandwagon party, and I'm happy to go against it. Lay Tiger Woods @ 7.4.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
:nanaWolves v Fulham Wolves to win first half @ 3.10 - betsafe, gamebookers, getwin, nordicbet, sportsalive, youwin -
Re: Jenspm's proper betting diary More losses, jeez. Hopefully Chelsea help me out tonight. I'm taking my first trade though - I really like BankOfKauto's thinking with Trading Darren Bent as top scorer, so I'm going to try that. Trade 1: Back Bent top goal scorer: 7pts @ 15.5 Planned exit point: After game vs. Wigan or when the odds hit 21, whichever comes first.
Tour De France
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Re: Tour De France Not a great day for me - have Valverde top 3 and Movistar in the team classification :(