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smegmaniac

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Posts posted by smegmaniac

  1. Re: Tennis - February 7-13

    great call i was sweating abit when he lost his 1st service game in the 3rd set but demolised phau in the tie break great call thanks gl all
    actually mate, my tip was form yesterday in the harrison - phau match...it was a rtypo error and actually turned out to be a loser! happy that you got a winner out of my mistake though...though any time a player's been tipped up and he wins on a 3rd set tie-break I would tend to consider it a lucky escape more so than a great call!! well...glad you won the money at least
  2. Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Sally Peers To beat Alexandra Stevenson at 4-6 paddypowers 2 points! I think the young 19 year old australian can get the better of the 30 year old veteran who is seriously on the decline for a long time now and shows no sign of any sort of revival of form! peers is a powerful girl whose game perhaps need s to be reeled in again... she still makes a lot of unforced errors, shows bad shot selection at times and her movement certainly nees to improve but she sure does have a lot of raw talent! she has a 1-3 win loss record this year which probably doesn't appear too impressive but the standard of opponents she has had to face are on a huge level above stevenson ( zahlavova-strycova, govortsova and kvitova in the first round of the australian open... whilst her win came against kleybanova) She's got a lot of potential and she proved it by getting through qualifiers at the Us open and reaching the second round only to find champion clijsters on a new level! her opponent today is a very very poor one! stevenson is a sinking ship and cant seem to make an impression even on the itf challenger circuit these days...she's already had poor straight sets losses this year to the likes of weinerova and schnack-whoever she is!! peers is capable of at least 2 or 3 levels above stevenson and the price of 4-6 almost seems suspicious to me! my only worry is that...with peers style of play...she is perhaps capable of beating herself and that's the only reason this isn't a 3 point tip....but she should be far too good for stevenson if she is at all motivated and fit!

  3. Re: Tennis - February 7-13 ryan harrison to beat bjorn phau at 5-6 paddypower 2 points Sweeting is in good form! he's a very determined ambitious young american playerr that seems to have a real drive and lust for the game! Basically he can play all court tennis...he has no huge weapons but no glaring weaknesses either and he has a good temperment for the game! i feel he has enough about him to beat the inconsistent phau who bar one big win against gasquet earlier in the year when he came from a set and two breaks down, hasn't really got much form...and he basically tends to have concentration issues and his if ya put him under pressure his running forehand in particularly is quite suspect! harrison will be motivated, has had a week's rest since his challenger win last week and will want the chance to play in the maindraw of an event like morgan and keenan in front of home support!

  4. Re: Tennis - February 7-13 kirsten flipkens to beat ursula radwanska at 8-11 paddypower this match takes place in about 8 hours time in the dubai qualifiers. I just feel this is a very reasonable price for flipkens.....really believe that she is a class ahead of agnieska radwanska's baby sister here. the reason the prices are so close is because flipkens hasn't a lot og tennis played since her wrist injury but she was very competitive against pavlyuchenkova a few weeks ago in the australian open just losing 6-4, 7-6 whilst she's been making positive comments on twitter like...'my wrist is feeling much better now' and ' can't wait to get back playing matches'. radwanska on the other hand lost in the first round of australianopen qualifying after a trademark meltdown against the very average Anna tatashvili. I feel she's always been a bit over-rated due to her association with her sister but she's very limited, one-dimensional and quite an impatient player. Flipkens beat her comfortably on hard copurt in their only meeting in 2009 and I would expect flipkens to be a bad match up for radwanska....plays with a lot of slice, mixes her game up very well, has a lethal forehand and isn't afraid to come to the net.. she is also mentally strong in tight moments...of course these characteristics are what I would associate with her when she is playing her best tennis...but I actually feel like she probably won't even need to be at her best to beat radwanska. I still recommend small stakes however, as there is very little exact proof of the form of both girls....but flipkens is the better player...simple as.

  5. Re: Tennis - February 7-13

    SportTennis
    EventS.Errani/R.Vinci - K-C.Chang/S.Mirza
    SelectionK-C.Chang/S.Mirza
    Strength10/10
    Date12/02/2011
    Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 2.63
    ReasoningSara Errani and Roberta Vinci will face Chang Kai-Chen and Sania Mirza in this morning, for a place in the final of the doubles draw here in Pattaya Open. It will be an interesting match to watch. The pair formed by K.Chang and S. Mirza is the fourth-seeded here. They have won very easy against Date Krumm and R.Oprandi in their last round: 6:1, 6:2. Chang and Mirza seems to be in a good shape, and ready to win this competition. On the other hand we have an Italian couple formed by Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci, witch is top seeded here in Pattaya. Errani & Vinci worked hard in their last game, in quarterfinal against A.Brianti/S.Zhang. It was a 7:6(7), 7:5 victory for the Italian pair, with many ups and downs in their game. Brianti and Zhang faced 19 break-points in that game, but managed to convert only few of these chances. I think that Errani and Vinci will not be really focused in this match. Why? Becasuse they will play each other in the semifinals of the singles draw, a few hours later. These girls are a little bit tired right now, after so many games in this week. Chang/Mirza is the more fresher pair, and should win this one in straight sets!
    welcome to the site alberto22.... i think your reasoning for this bet makes a lot of sense and because of the price it certainly seems to represent some value.
  6. Re: Tennis - February 7-13

    Was going to take this as well mate' date=' but refrained because of the outright. Guaranteed good profit from the each way if Dolgo wins this. Not sure I want to throw any more on it.[/quote'] now that was a great price!! hopefully we'll be seeing a dolgopolov-almagro final...should be a cracker!
  7. Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 michelle larcher de brito to beat madison brengle at 4-5 bet365 2 points. All in all de brito is the classier player. she is notoriously inconsistent and can be tempermental but the fact that she has reached the final in the states this week shows at least that she is focused and playing well. her opponent brengle is simply average ...a player that has never even qualified for grand slam after about 4 years of trying. She's a decent ball striker but she's very slow around the court and the athletic and aggressive de brito can outlast her in ralleys i reckon. I haven't seen any of the action this week so wouldn't advise a huge stake but de brito does look huge value for me at 4-5

  8. Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6

    smeg what makes you think Ljubicic does not like fast surfaces? As far as I know, he made his best results exactly on fast surfaces. Edit: Just to clarify, he won the Indiana Wells last year (beating Djokovic, Nadal, Roddick) and Lyon in 2009.
    well, I agree to an extent! but his best grand slam performances have been on the clay at the french open ...the highlight being a french open semi-final! And his record on the grass at wimbledon is appalling...which is the quickest surface of all the grand slams! plus he has a poor record indoors considering his class! Grass and indoors represent the fastest courts out there whereas a hard court like indian wells represents a speed somewhere in grass and clay! it's still a fast court but there's a subtle difference! obviously, ljubicic can use his huge big serve to his advantage on fast surfaces...but he doesn't return quite as well and tends to need that extra fraction of a second to line up his big groundstrokes ... he has a pretty long backswing on his forehand in particularly although his backhand is a class shot on any surface! zagreb is playing pretty quick but not as fast as i thought and anyway, i apologise for that tip on the brands handicap against ljubicic! it turned out to be rubbish...ljubs was hitting and seeing the ball quite well...but brands was awful...serving loads of double faults and his net play was atrocious! Ivan will probably still be there or there abouts in zagren coz he is one of the class acts of the field but I think dodig could give him trouble today! anyway, obviously you are a very good tipper and I respect your opinion but feel I should maybe have elaborated on my view points a bit better than I did before! feel free to disagree!
  9. Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 daniel brands plus 3.5 games versus ivan ljubicic at 4-5 bet365 3 points Brands is back in good form again, he had a good week last week beating the likes of berrer and galung before under-performing a little in the final against lefty knittel. But the key fact is he is serving really well. ljubicic isn't renowned for his service returns and generally struggles on fast courts like in zagreb...just look at his wimbledon record also...it's awful. he has hardly shown much form either this season...and is getting on a bit! that's not to say he isn't still capable of mixing with the big boys but it's just not his style to come racing out of the blocks these days in tournaments and i expect brands to keep it tight. ljubicic simply doesn't like quick surfaces...he needs a little more time to set up his big swinging groundstrokes. he also won't enjoy brands serving aces past him all day. it should be close though as ivan plays at home and also has a big serve to rely on but that didn't bother brands so much against giant server karlovic who he beat in a third set tie break yesterday and that will surely give him confidence for todays clash with lubo! brands should cover the handicap!

  10. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) DANIEL BRANDS TO BEAT HUTA- GALUNG AT 4-6 BET365 2 POINTS. i SAW A BIT OF BRANDS YESTERDAY, AND I WAS VERY IMPRESSED WITH HIM BEATING MICHAEL BERRER. hE SERVED REALLY WELL AND WAS SOLID IN THE CLUTCH MOMENTS. HE LOOKS LIKE HE'S FINDING HIS FORM AGAIN...THE SORT OF FORM THAT TOOK HIM TO THE WIMBLEDON 3RD ROUND LAST YEAR...AND THAT FORM SHOULD BE FAR TOO GOOD FOR CHALLENGERVETERAN GALUNG WHO PREFERS FAST INDOORS AND GRASS COURTS BUT STILL IS A LEVEL BELOW WHAT BRANDS IS CAPABLE OF. I THINK BRANDS IS SUCH AN INVITING PRICE AS OVER THE LAST FEW ONTHS HIS FORM HAS BEEN HORRIBLE SO I THINK IT'S TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE WHILE WE STILL CAN NOW I also fancy a small punt on djokovic to hit more double faults than murray in the final...both are probably likely to hit a few...but djokovic is renowned for having a shaky second serve in pressure moments and he is much more likely to go on a mini-run of doubles ...like to in a game. Djokovic just generally hits far more double faults than the top players and though murray is likely to get tight at some stage too... the statistics suggest djokovic will hit more. in 3 sets djokovic hit 5 doubles against federer while in 4 sets murray hit 3 against ferrer. worth a small punt

  11. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Hi guys i have been betting on quite few matches in the late stages of the tournament and i have been in profit it seems nearly every bet i do i win money when in the first week i was not winning as much it seems the quarter finals onwards i seem to do better in winning money than losing it do you guys manage to win more in the latter stages when you know how the players are playing which i feel is a big advantage on winning big i suppose it is a lot easier when you know which players have a chance of winning
    well , first of all, congrats on having a good second week. for me, I always do much better in the first week, as generally because there are more matches ...there are more opportunities and more chances the bookies might make a mistake. In fact, i make most of my profit in the qualifying stages. I think when it comes to the latter stages of the tournaments the bookies are more familiar with the players and their form so the prices are generally right. But there are plenty of punters who prefer the latter stages of tournaments too so I guess it just comes down to whether you fancy a bet....JUST GO FOR IT.
  12. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Jesus yeah forgot about that........:eek Really tough one for her tonight though.
    tonight is my grand slam final really. i've decided not to bother backing zvonareva as a saver tonight...i don't want to eat into my potential profits soo much.And anyway, i think she has a chance. I feel like considering i backed her at 350-1 before the draw came out i got very unlucky...because the two players i wanted to avoid on kvitova's side of the draw were clijsters and zvonareva...plus she had to play stosur in the third round. i backed clijsters outright as my saver ...but i've decided to take the chance on her beating zvonareva....maybe if zvonareva was a better price than 1-2 i'd back her...but i'd need to put on a big bet there....i don't really see the value as i feel like i'm frteerolling on kvitova a bit. you would have to say that zvonareva is the claasier player and the more likely winner... but petra has a chance. zvonareva is a player that needs rhythm and likes to get into her groove...but petra is so aggressive...powerful...unafraid to follow up her approach shots and booming groundstrokes at the net...and also quite error prone...too aggressive at times and i think all these traits might frustrate zvonareva a little bit. plus kvitova has a huge outswinging lefty serve..it's a real weapon ...especially against a player like zvonareva who is quite snall...and doesn't have great reach on her two-handed backhand. plus, vera as we know, despite making somewhat of a mental breakthrough last year, is no stranger to nerves and bottling it at times. the pressure is certainly on her and as slider25 has already pointed out...petra looks to be a woman for the big occasion and has no fear. my only reservation is that once the pair start getting into long exchanges ...zvonareva will be too crafty...as kvitova's movement is certainly the weakest element of her game...and this is what worries me most...but havin said that i think she has a chance. so having said this, would it be fair to assume that if kvitova beats zvonareva,possible, and then she beats clijsters, unlikely but still, surely she would be favourite in the final against either li na or wozniacki.....
  13. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    I like the look of three bets on the men's side... - Novak Djokovic -4.5 games AH (vs Tomas Berdych) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (7/10) I just can't see past Djokovic here. I think when it gets down to the crunch, the Serb is going to have too much for the Czech. I know Berdych got the better of him at Wimbledon but I think Djokovic is playing far better tennis and far closer to his potential compared to back then. They've met twice since then, albeit on an indoor hard court, and Djokovic has won both with something to spare. Berdych has played fine here but he's not at the same level as he was six months ago. Wins over Gasquet and Verdasco look good on paper, but both men have really been cannon fodder for the big guns. Kohlschreiber took a set off the Czech earlier on and I feel that he'll give Djokovic chances on his serve. I've been impressed with the Serb in certain games - Dodig gave him a fright, but Almagro couldn't get near him and Djokovic has got more solid as the tournament has gone on. I feel he is a better player, a man with more variety and consistency, and with the match being played in the evening, he'll be able to escape any heat-related problems. 4.5 games is not a huge line over a best-of-five-sets match. Djokovic could lose a set and still cover the line. For me, he is capable of winning this, and doing so with a bit to spare. The H2H is 4-1 in Djokovic's favour, and I'm not sure Berdych is good enough at this present time to cut that back. - Under 33.5 games (Andy Murray vs Alexandr Dolgopolov) @ 1.98 with Pinnacle (6/10) I think Murray is playing too well at the moment for Dolgopolov to trouble him. Sure, the Ukrainian has had a wonderful tournament, but so has Murray. The Scot has annihilated anyone that's got in his way and Melzer and Garcia-Lopez, two of his opponents, are no mugs at present. He just looks in the zone, a man who defending, attacking and serving with supreme consistency and confidence. He's not dropped a set yet and is fresh. Dolgopolov has spoken how he has improved fitness-wise but he's had a lot of court time - two five-setters with Tsonga and Soderling are going to take their toll. He's said that he doesn't enjoy the physical impact hard courts have on him - his legs tire quicker, and that's a bad thing against Murray. The Scot is like the Duracell Bunny at the moment, full of running, and he'll make Dolgopolov work for every point. Dolgopolov obviously has the weapons to cause Murray problems - his variety will take getting used to - but the Scot will get more back with more purchase than Tsonga or Soderling did. Murray looks extremely driven here, and he'll want to get this done without much fuss. Dolgopolov has done remarkably well to get this far but Murray can bring him back down to earth. The odds and the line are more appealing than the handicap for me. Murray to do this without too much bother. - Rafael Nadal -6.5 games AH (vs David Ferrer) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle (6/10) Nadal was back to his best against Cilic. He showed no signs of the virus that has dogged him in the early part of this tournament - he was perspiring normally and moving in his customary whippet-like manner. He's also serving well. Cilic is not a tremendous returner but he can give players problems, but Nadal snuffed out the threat well. Ferrer, for me, is not playing at his best. He has got here in fairly smooth fashion but his serve concerns me. Worse returners than Nadal has been getting shots at his delivery and that will hurt him. He puts a lot of pressure on himself when he serves poorly and Nadal will lap that up. Ferrer hasn't won against Nadal since 20067, arguably when Ferrer was at his peak, and I don't think he'll get much of a chance here. Nadal will counterract his defensive style of game and wear him down. I don't think Ferrer has the shots to break through his compatriot - against Raonic, he relied on the Canadian firing blanks, which works against the majority of players but not the top 10. London last year showed that the gap between Ferrer and the game's upper echelon is still big. I expect him to be gutsy but if Nadal plays like he did against Cilic, I can't see Ferrer getting anywhere near him in these conditions. Something like 6-4 6-3 6-3 wouldn't surprise me, and that would be enough to cover this line. Entirely feasible, in my opinion. :hope
    brilliantly analysed...i couldn't agree more.
  14. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) zvonaereva versus benesova under 18.5 games 5-6 pinnacle. 2 points benesova played excellent against pavlyuchenkova...she hit the ball deep consistentantly but it has to be said pavlyuchenkova made a lot of unforced errors and in any case is over-rated. zvonareva is a huge step up in class for benesova....benesova's serve isn't so big so zvonareva will always have a look in and i just expect her to be better than benesova in every department of the game, as czech punter also stated zvonareva hammered benesova at the australian open last year. Also, i don't think radwanska will cover the handicap against peng. she played excellently against halep...but halep put up a very tame challenge.....peng is at her most vulnerable against powerful players who will put her on the backfoot from tha start and make her run... but radwanska isn't this type of player....yes, there is no doubt she is more talented than peng and has some of the best feel in the women's game....but peng is a good fighter..and actually if this match does get close...i fancy peng to have more bottle. it cannot be forgotten that peng beat radwanska in the US open last year just a few months ago...and i don't see why she can't do the same again here against a player who has had a very cushy draw so far. i can see the match going two ways...either radwanska wins easy or peng wins a tight match and i believe the latter is the more likely outcome.

  15. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) simona halep to beat agnieszka radwanska 1 point 2-1. i also went for halep here. radwanska is there for the taking for sure. but date krumm just made too many errors and threw away the match aginst radwanska in the first round and martic didn't have enough weapons or game in general to trouble radwanska. however, despite all of kleybanova's errors against halep ....it has to be said halep played a good match and she will have no fear. She's a former french open juniors winner and she's got pretty hefty grounstrokes... i think she can play a similar sort of match to the one peng did at the Us open when she beat radwanska....if she plays agressive, stays consistent and keeps her nerve which i think she is capable of doing...though she's bound to have a wobble along the way i think she is capable of beating an over-rated radwanska who in any case isn't 100 per cent fit.

  16. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Any leans for tonight Smeg?? Cant see much value in the mens anyway, maybe Dolgopolov in some capacity. Looking through the womens now. You were right on Schiavone btw....she hit around 1.60 before that one. I was put off by her display against Marino but as you said new day, new opponent...Marino is all power whereas Niculescu totally different.
    well, to be honest, i've already put my bets onfor tonight yesterday and the prices have changed. I basically put a big bet on a peng,li na and zvonareva treble with boylesports. li na has already won anyway, and beat the handicap which seems pretty obvious now as zahlavova-strycova, although being a great match player against players of her level, always gets hammered by the big consistent hitters...I like how li na is shaping up at the moment and i fancy her to beat azarenka but will analyse it more. I really like peng who is the cornerstone of that bet.peng is basically a solid old prob, a great ball striker and a fine match-player...she gets more exposed against the top players as once she is on the back foot her retrieval and defensive skills aren't so much up to scratch and she does find it hard to change sirections...if she doesn't get the exact angle she needs she does tend to hit the ball up the middle of the court too often for my liking when she has a chance to hit the corners but her two-handed forehand and backhand limits her movement a bit1 yet, i like her a lot still as she is a consistent ballstriker and has an excellent temperment. morita is very lucky to have reached this far.....she played dulgheru, who i tipped up by the way.....ooops, but dulgheru was pretty awful....couldn't hit two straight points on her backhand and is a shadow of the player i remember from last season. then she had the easiest second round draw of any player agàinst the unexperienced caroline garcia who beat the useless lepchenko in the first round. and she didn't hammer her either 6-4 6-4. morita is untested really and my experience of being involved with her matches in the past is that she is a bit of a bottler. she's probably confident after her first two rounds but this is a big big step up for her. she makes way too many unforced errors for me to play at pengs level who will just stay solid and what i like about peng is that she is ballsy and plays the big points well. as for zvonareva...well safarova can be tricky when she's playing well...but two tight 3 set matches against zakopalova and zhang doesn't suggest she's ready to take on a player of zvonarevas talent. i think safarova has a mental block about beating the big players in grand slams and will most likely be t6he first to break down in longh ralleys. so that's my big bet. other than that, i went for petrova..1 point bet. even though makarova is playing well....her win over ivanovic is probably over-rated a bit. i still think petrova is the more likely winner.... her game is less one-dimensional and she has the experience. will probably be a close one. As for dolgopolov, the match seems like it could beat the overs. but ultimately, dolgopolov still has a lot more to prove....and he might just do that....but tsonga is a great man to get through a battle and if i had to invest in one of the players it would be tsonga. he loves australia too. i also put a wager on a youzhny -pavlyuchenkova double..nothing serious. berankis could cause ferrer trouble also.
  17. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Glad you were on board' date=' smeg. It has been a very good first week, more losers than last week but making around an 8pt profit on average each day - just hitting more matches. Always good to have a loser on occasion as it focuses the mind. Don't think I'm the only one though - there are few here (IAG in particular) who are making good profit. Long may it continue :ok[/quote'] thats for sure. I think the draws have been good to us too. ya can't underestimate the value of a kind draw. As for IAG, the man always brings his A-game to the slams...king of the shrewd double.
  18. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Wawrinka' date=' as expected, took full advantage of Monfils' concentration powers that resemble a goldfish. Monfils may be able to play like that against the small fry but when the top 20 sharks come along, he's bait. Stakhovsky came apart at the seams after the first set, although Robredo played well. Federer was always in control against Malisse, and the handicap was nicely covered. Like IAG and a few others, Berdych also did the business for me, but the second half of that bet goes tonight. Good profit again today. As always, well done to all winners :ok[/quote'] good stuff Atko, follwed you on the federer handicap...initially i thought it was about right but ya convinced me! you seem to be havinmg a very good first week!!!
  19. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) what do you think of schiavone at 4-7 with skybet!? niculescu has won both her matches easily so far... but it has to be said that bacszinsky is woefully out of form and would hate having to play someone like niculescu anyway with all her forehand slices and drop shots and variety....as for pironkova she simply hadn't the power to hit through niculescu whose movement was excellent...chasing down one too many balls for pironkova ...but pironkova was lucky enough to get past parmentier and i feel these were two lucky draws for niculescu! She's the female version of santoro on the wta tour is niculescu but i think if there is any player that can outfox this vixen... it's schiavone! she's struggled so far...but she was cruising against marino and then lost concentration and found herself in a 3rd set battle she did well to come through...marino after all did give venus trouble at the Us open! niculescu doesn't outhit players..she just confuses, frustrates and forces them to hit one extra shot while there's no player in the game that uses the drop shot more than her! however, i reckon a shrewd schiavone who has already beaten niculescu in 2009 knows how to play against this style...she's more than comfortable finsihing off points at the net and if ya haven't got the brute power to hit through hanescu well then you have to be willing to follow up approach shots and finish them off at the net! I am worried that she'll be tired though...but she has the experience...this is new territory for niculescu...I've seen her bottle it in the past....she hasn't been given an opportunity to get tight against her previous out of form opponents... surely that won't be the case against schiavone! either way i think the price should be more like 1-3! anybody got any thoughts??

  20. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    WIN....Raonic was beastly on serve. Little choke in the 3rd granted. WIN....good win for Baghy. Good night overall....had a couple of small side plays aswell that cancelled eachother out(Petrova h-cap and zakopalova).
    good work Gooner! You were right about llodra for sure! And in hindsight we all should have put big money on bagdatis but sure we should be happy with what we got!
  21. Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

    Thank you for the insight. I drop the idea of Soderling - Muller Under. I go for Melzer - Riba 3-0 @Pinnacle 1.556 full stakes instead. GL :hope
    well it turns out the match was 29 games exactly so you would have won your bet...oh well it was close though! soderling needed to win th efinal set 6-1! i tipped up the match to be over 27 games so i am relieved i didnt take the over 29 games!! your bet on melzer was an excellent one also!
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