smegmaniac
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Posts posted by smegmaniac
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
yes i have to agree with slider24 on almagro!! i really do not understand how paddy power made him 11-10 to beat seppi last night!! i had to back it!! i know that he retired injured against istomin and that is a worry but my experience of almagro is that if he's not physically fit he will retire (especially in a best of 5 set format) and you will get your money back!! for me almagro has really emerged as one of the best players in the world!!at his best , he is top ten i reckon but his inconsistency over the year is what lets him down!! but it has to be said that he has saved his horror performances and inconsistency for the smaller tournaments and has generally brought his A-game to the grand slams over the last 2 years or so and especially in 2010! he reached the 4th round of the australian open (a tournament he went into in awful form) and was very unlucky to lose to tsonga in 5 sets! in the french this year he was awesome in patches, particularly against verdasco and he probably gave nadal his sternest test in the whole tournament! of course grass is probably his weakest surface, but i think his game isn't that dissimilar to gasquet (who has excelled on grass) and he has improved his movement this year as in the past he probably struggled with the low bounce on grass and needed more time to set up his vicious groundstrokes (that backhand is a shot of beauty)! but he'smoviong better these days and he also has a big serve which should be a big weapon for him on this surface! another reason i like this bet is that almagro has become mentally very tough and a great fighter on court!! indeed, he proved that last year in wimbledon coming back from two sets down against juan monaco to win 8-6 in d fifth and then he beat karol beck ib 5 sets too before finding soderling too good and i think almagro is better this year and more confident...i get the impression he really believes that he is one odf the best players in the world and should be contesting at the business end of grand slams! his opponent seppi actually has a good record at wimbledon....he reached the 4th round in 2008 and the 3rd round last year.... yet i have serious doubts about his mental strength and his self-confidence seems particularly low at the moment!! he has had a very por year so far and even on the grass court season which should be one that he would relish , he lost to tomic and marchenko....that hardly inspires confidence for me.....the few times i saw him this year,he's been pretty error strewn at times and his forehand is letting him down a bit!! he has one of the weakest second serve in the top 100 and most importantly he's getting very tight in the important moments of matches........i expect almagro to play the big points well if this turns into a marathon!! he certainly has the talent to cause almagro a lot of problems....if he plays his best tennis , he knows how to play the grass ...he's got good touch, movement on the surface and like ferrero likes to feed off pace instead of generating it himself (tends to overhit his forehand) and its worth noticing that almagro rarely comes into a grand slam all guns blazing.....he almost always is involved in a 5 setter and i can see this one being quite similar!! but i think almagro is much more mentally tough and will be the better man in the clutch moments against a player who is not playing to his ability right now and there are no signs of that changing anytime soon!! so if almagro is fit and motivated , i can only see him winning!! i'm sure he'll be motivated.....the fitness is the worry but with money back for retirements it is really worth backing nicolas on this one!!Lots of value in the opening rounds of the Men's draw it seems. At first glance Amalgro is priced as an underdog to beat Seppi. Strange one. Like Smeg said before, because someone is deemed a clay-courter it is concluded they can't beat average players on grass. To be fair, Amalgro isn't as good as Ferrero on grass but surely he's got enough to beat Seppi, who has been in poor form. Kiefer also looks worth a bit of a dabble to beat Ferrer, as does Haase to beat Blake, who perpetually bombs at Wimbledon. I'm also not convinced at all by Monfils on grass and Leonardo Mayer could send him out on his ear. Few more interesting matches as well. -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
yes, i agree, i am pretty worried myself about his form!! i reckon in the hard court season in the US, he was probebly a bit mentally and physically tired after playing and winning so many matches in the south american clay court season!! I don't think he performed as bad at the french open than meets the eye! he beat clay court specialists cuevas and riba who are no world beaters but he still took care of them!! and losing to ginepri in 5 sets (was 2-0 down) isn't as bad an effort as it looks as bobby ginepri actually can play some great tennis when he turns on the style and can put it up to the vast majority of the top players....he is not an ex- grand slam semi-finalist for nothing!! there is one stat that i found quite surprising when i checked it today!! ferrero has never been past the 3rd round of the french open since he won it in 2003!!! the mosquito himself has regularly been knocked out at the first, second and 3rd round since then!! probably because the both strength in depth and quality in the men's game has improved so much since those lull pre-federer years but also because of players move so much better these days and the emergence of the power players.....the soderlings and berdychs of this world......they can hit through the defense of a guy like ferrero!! so whats actually happened is ferrero has adapted his game since then and in my opinion his best surface is clearly grass!! over the last 3 years he has got to the quarter finals twice and he retired injured against zverev in the second round in 2008! he's also reached the 4th round twice! he's not the most powerful player in the world but on the grass he can feed off the pace of his opponent and he possesses great accuracy and control over his groundstrokes particularly his backhand down the line! he doesn't have to try and hit players off the court as he doesnt have the power! and of course he hasn't lost his mental toghness since his prime...thats where i feel he can really beat malisse....by just being so solid and not giving him any free points....as malisse is bound to give a few! of course i am worried about his very poor performance against meffert 2 weeks ago....but it's not enough reason for me to turn down this underdog price of 5-4!! he looked very disinterested alright but one would think that at 30 years old he would realise that he hasn't much more chances to perform well at the most prestigious tennis event in the world...one that he has always thrived in, a tournament that he has a lot of points to defend so....i would have to expect a good pro like ferrero to get his mind right and be motivated and mentally prepared!! of course i would love to have inside information on the guy and his mental frame at the mo but i don't and thats why we call it gambling but i just cant turn down the 5-4!!!! i wish you luck what ever you decide!!!A few extra thoughts. Not decided which other bets to go for, and will wait until handicaps etc come out........... Agreed with Smeg on Ferrero. Form is a little worry for Ferrero but you wouldn't get such a price if he was coming in all guns blazing. Watched him against Meffert at Halle, thats my only concern....he made a few errors I wouldn't expect from him. But he's beaten Malisse at Queens last year in 2 sets when he wasn't in the best of form...and ended up reaching the 1/4's at Wimbledon. JCF is a class above in my view. Berankis vs Ball looks interesting......Ball is pretty big at 6/4 even though I'd make Berankis slight favourite. Young guy is on fire recently...winning grass event in Nottingham a few weeks back and cruising through qualifiers at Wimbledon. Ball has also came through qualies beating the likes of Gilles Muller(one dimensional but dangerous when he's serving well). Ball has a big serve, but the fact the Berankis beat Kevin Anderson at Notingham makes me wonder how much an issue that will be for him. -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
my first big bet of the tournament is as follows: JUAN CARLOS FERRERO TO BEAT XAVIER MALISSE AT 5-4 PADDYPOWER 3 POINTS! i cannot for the life of me understand how juan carlos ferrero is underdog in this one!! i feel there has been a big over-reaction to malisse's victory over djokovic at queens last week....i saw the match and evn though malisse played well , novak was far from his best!! and malisse typically lost the quarter-final the next day in straight sets against eventual champion sam querrey which was no disgrace but as usual he wasn't able to follow up a big victory which has been a prominent pattern pervading through his whole career! in fairness he has had a decent grass court season so far beating the likes of tursonov, tomic and of course novak.... but today he got beaten by stakhovsky in straight sets!! there's no doubting his talent... great groundstrokes off both wings and a big serve but the mental side of his game is what has let him down over the years!! he has always had difficulties maintaining his concentration and toughness on every point and he's a bit slow around the court these days but he still knows how to play grass court tennis! however, so too does his opponent juan carlos ferrero and yet again this man has been under-rated by the bookies on a surface that these days might even be his best surface and last year he was quoted as saying that it was his favourite surface!! it seems that because juan carlos ferrero is a former french open champion and a spaniard that ultimately he's really a clay courter and not quite the same force on grass!! but if you look closely at his record, particularly recent record....you could see that the man really does play well on the grass!! he's been a quarter finalist at wimbledon twice and to the 4th round twice also!! he's also one of the few men that can boast about taking a set off federer on the grass! last year he beat the likes of youzny and fernando gonzalez on his run to the quarters before finding murray too good!! he has also won the only match between the two players last year....ON GRASS...in queens in straight sets!! his form this year has been mostly very good....he had a great time in the south american clay court season winning in chile and brazil....he was shocked in the third round of the french by ginepri but bobby really played outstanding in that match i thought!! it certainly is worrying that he lost to meffert in halle on grass almost two weeks ago but he just didnt seem that interested.....dont think it was an injury problem!! he has the exact qualities that malisse lacks.....mental toughness.....the ability to play tough on every point for 5 sets (a great match player), consistency in long ralleys....malisse tends to break down eventually or just go 4 the big winner.... and on grass he plays the counter-punching style and will mix his game up, feed off malisse's pacy groundstrokes and pass malisse at will when he attacks the net!! malisse hasn't went on a good run for a while at wimbledon and last year went out very tamely to schuettler in the first round when, like this year, his form looked good going into the tournament!! he's obviously very talented and ii wouldn't be surprised if this match went to 4 or even 5 sets but ultimately ferrero is the superior match player and provided he's fit and motivated...i think he'll win this one!!he was 11-8 with powers....now 5-4 and i expect the price to shorten still!! the fact that he is underdog in this match makes it so much tastier to back!! good luck 
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
thanks mate!! he won pretty convincingly...playing with a lot of confidence at the moment!! i hope ya didnt follow me on the reister bet....really couldn't understand how he was underdog.....couldn't see how evans could merit favouritism in this match up considering the form....but i guess i was caught!!! he must really love the grass and he played the big points well!! anyway, fischer was my big 3 pointer and my accumulator of berankis and dent came off to plus most of my smaller bets came off too so a good profit for the day (though dent made me sweat)!! looking forward to the big draw tomorrow and your views...your picks in general have been excellent over the last few months!! the grass can be tricky to predict but it's tricky for the bookies too so we have to be on our games to find that edge we need!!Fair play mate...........:ok.......followed you on this earlier. -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June lastly , there are no other prices put up! but i wont have time in the morning to give the rest of my tips so here are the prices i would be willing to take on the following players! 1)kendrick at 8-11 2)levine 8-13 3)oprandi evens 4)nara 8-11 (she might even be underdog) 5)pivovarova 4-6 6)doi 5-6 (small bet) 7)perry 5-6 8)hlavackova 8-11 9)niculescu 4-7 10)muller 8-11 11)mannarino-mattek double at evens! 12)tomic 8-13 13)and unlucky 13 is a small punt on tomljanovic as she will probably be a big outsider against kanepi....maybe 11-4! i don't really have time to explain all the bets but for the moment we'll call them all one-pointers!! maybe if i get time tomoroo ill explain which bets i'd prioritise!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June berankis- dent double at 5-6 paddypowers 2 points! berankis has been in impressive form of late! he won a challenger last week on grass beating some good players (dancevic,anderson,harrison,marrino and soeda in the final) he is a young motivated lads from latvia and he seems to have good mantal strength as well as solid groundstrokes! i saw him against phau and verdasco earlier on in the year and i was very impressed with his application...he plays with a lot of maturity! he appears to love the grass and has coasted through to this round beating harrison and evans! ventura has never liked the grass and he benefited from a cushy draw to get to this stage of the qualifiers (prodona and cipolla) but i just can't see him living with berankis on this surface!! dent is playing ebden and even though i really dont like the 3-10 price on him i think he's worth sticking in the accumulator!! Ebden has some decent results this year at challenger level but if dent is at all serious about getting back where he belongs in the main draws of grandslams, he shouldnt be losing to a guy like ebdon! the way he has walsed through qualifying so far is a good sign that he's playing well and motivated and i would be very surprised if he didnt win this one!! i also like ilhan to beat karanusic but 1-2 isn't a very nice price!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June julian reister to beat brendan evans at 11-10 paddypowers 2 points very surprised that reister is considered the underdog in this one! he is just coming off the back of an excellent run at the french open and should be brimming with confidence!! at the french open he walsed through the qualifiers and indeed the first two rounds beating volandri, niland, berlocq, feliciano lopez and olivier rochus before falling to king roger himself (he was competitive for two sets against roger...fell apart in the second)!! he has a big serve which should serve him well on the grass! he seems as though he has made the transition to grass fairly smoothly and he has walsed through the first two rounds so far (reminiscent of his french open run)! he beat mertens and andrej martin both in straight sets!! it is worth noting that both these players are fairly poor opponents and that he did get a lucky draw but the fact that he beat them comfortably bodes well! evans will be a tougher test for him and it certainly will be tough for him to break evans serve although i don't think he minds playing against serve and volleys with big serves judging by the way he hammered feliciano lopez in the french! of course grass is different but i still think the jury is still out on evans!! there is no doubt that his game is well suited to grass and he won a challenger in nottingham last year beating bozoljac in the final but he hasn't really proved himself at this level yet! his form this year has been very poor to say the least!! he could barely win a match for the first few months getting beat by the likes of valent, oswald, kim, hocevar and kondo to name a few and so far in the grass court season he has lost to stadler and noam okun...hardly worldbeaters! (though he did beat hernych and ghedin) in fairness, he's also done well to get to the final round of the qualifyiers beating paire and ito both in three sets but paire has no grass court experience really and ito is a journeyman! it's also worth noting that he lost both tiebreaks in those matches and i would have a feeling if this match gets close evans would be more likely to get tight than the confident reister! he lost in qualifying to luca gregorc last year when he was in better form and he's never qualified legitimately for any slam before...it's abig game for him and maybe he'll rise to the challenge but i think all the signs that i've analysed point to a reister win and especially the fact that reister is underdog here it makes him much more backable!! 2 points
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June martin fischer to beat ramon delgado at 4-5 powers 3 points! i really fancy this bet!! fischer is in fine form of late!! he qualified for the french open beating some good players on the way (ramirez hidalgo-clay court specialist and even more impressively the talented latvian berankis in the last round of qualifying) he then had an epic 5 setter with established main tour pro and match player horacio zeballos losing 8-6 in the 5th! He has carried that form very well into the grass court season it seems! he has qualified fairly comfortably beating both hrbaty(who in fairness doesn't like the grass) and phau both in straight sets! i have only seen him play once indoors against hernych a few months ago which he lost but he showede a lot of potential in that match!! his serving was absolutely woeful and it cost him the match in the end but he returns very well, is very solid off the ground and seems to thrive off that bit of pace so i think the grass should suit him! and judging by his recent good form he must havbe sorted out the serving difficulties! delgado is a solid old veteran with plenty of fight in him! at 34 he's been around a long time, and he had somewhat of a renaissance in his career at the end of last season when he one a couple of challengers!! this season has been solid if not spectacular....the only results of note are a win over berankis early in the year which is solid in fairness....he also beat an out of form brands and a just-back-from-injury andreas beck but other than that he hasn't done a whole lot!! he was beaten in the australian open qualifiers by suzuki and in the french open qualies by mannarino!! he hasn't played in or qualified for a main draw of a grand slam since 2003!! and even in his prime he never got past the first round at wimbledon!! he has reached this last round of the qualifiers with a typically gritty 3 set win over journeyman de chaunac but i think that fischer will be a step up in class for ramon and over a best of 5 set format i think he'll ultimately find fischer too hot to handle!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
peya beats kim 7-6,6-3! WIN Arn beats brengle 6-1,7-6 WIN......should have put more on Arn in particularly...in hindsight that was a crazy price!! but sure hindsight is a wonderful thing!just a few more tips here! 1) alexander peya to beat kevin kim at 4-7 paddypower 2 points over the course of his career peyas best surface has probably been grass! he has qualified for wimbledon on numerous occasions and last year gave tommy haas a really tough match! kim has been in poor form this year and his first round victory against philip oswald doesnt impress me too much as it went to 16-14 in the third! all oswald can do is serve big......the man can barely keep the ball in play! peyas form this year seems decent and he relsihes the grass so i think this is a generous price against his the out-of-form veteran! greta arn to beat madison brengle at 6-5!bet365 2 points i really like this bet!! brengle had a big reputation as a junior but has never even come close to fulfilling her potential over the last few years and the truth is she is still carrying a bit of weight and her movement is suspect! her form isn't too impressive either!! most recently she got hammered by diatchenko in birmingham! in notthingham the week before she was hammered by carly gullickson!!in grado she was hemmered by xinyun han and halep hammered her in the french open qualifiers!arn on the other hand has some good form....she reached the final of warsaw a few weeks ago (a tier one event) beating the likes of martic,zakopalova and bondarenko before finding zheng too good in the final in two tight sets! last year she reached the 3rd round of the wimbledon qualifiers losing a tough 3 setter to parra snatonja who then went on to beat tanasugarn and push grass court specialist sugiyama tough!! so signs are that arn can play on grass also! she's experienced and a good battler and for me there is no way she should be considered underdog in this one so i am going to take her at 6-5! -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
the big bet pays off!! all winning comfortably even though mattek lost the second set 6-0!!!!kanepi' date=matteksands and pivovarova treble at 8-11 williamhill!! 3 points i am really confident about this one.....i dont have much time to explain but all three players are in good form and simply a class ahead of each of their opponents and i cant see them slipping up! get on now! -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
oops!! bad straight sets loss here!! total misjudgement of zhangs ability and perhaps beltrame has found a bit of form...i dunno.sorry about that!the only loss of the day thank god......i love the qualifiers!!!shaui zhang to beat severine beltrame at 8-11!!powers 2 points beltrame had her best result here at wimbledon a good few years back when she reached the 4th round but she's the wrong side of thirty now and a shadow of her former self!! her form this year has been awful! she's lost to the likes of ungar,chaknashvili,tetreault,zahlavova,anna smith, picquoin,fichman and in front of her home crowd at the french qualifiers she lost to aniko kapros who is a very average player indeed! she might be living off her past glories a litttle with the bookies on this one!! zhang on the other hand has been in good shape this year!!she qualified for the french this year beating vidagany and zuzanna kucova on the way before finding petrova way too good!recently she won a challenger in maribor beating the likes of voracova,pervak and pous tio!she's a pretty flat hitter and i dont see why her game cant translate to grass! she's not the most reliable of course and can be error prone but i think her comfortable victory in the first round against tashvili is a good sign and i am happy to take her against a woefully out of form beltrame who could even have one eye on retirement if she keeps going at this rate! -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June just a few more tips here! 1) alexander peya to beat kevin kim at 4-7 paddypower 2 points over the course of his career peyas best surface has probably been grass! he has qualified for wimbledon on numerous occasions and last year gave tommy haas a really tough match! kim has been in poor form this year and his first round victory against philip oswald doesnt impress me too much as it went to 16-14 in the third! all oswald can do is serve big......the man can barely keep the ball in play! peyas form this year seems decent and he relsihes the grass so i think this is a generous price against his the out-of-form veteran! greta arn to beat madison brengle at 6-5!bet365 2 points i really like this bet!! brengle had a big reputation as a junior but has never even come close to fulfilling her potential over the last few years and the truth is she is still carrying a bit of weight and her movement is suspect! her form isn't too impressive either!! most recently she got hammered by diatchenko in birmingham! in notthingham the week before she was hammered by carly gullickson!!in grado she was hemmered by xinyun han and halep hammered her in the french open qualifiers!arn on the other hand has some good form....she reached the final of warsaw a few weeks ago (a tier one event) beating the likes of martic,zakopalova and bondarenko before finding zheng too good in the final in two tight sets! last year she reached the 3rd round of the wimbledon qualifiers losing a tough 3 setter to parra snatonja who then went on to beat tanasugarn and push grass court specialist sugiyama tough!! so signs are that arn can play on grass also! she's experienced and a good battler and for me there is no way she should be considered underdog in this one so i am going to take her at 6-5!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June kanepi,matteksands and pivovarova treble at 8-11 williamhill!! 3 points i am really confident about this one.....i dont have much time to explain but all three players are in good form and simply a class ahead of each of their opponents and i cant see them slipping up! get on now!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June shaui zhang to beat severine beltrame at 8-11!!powers 2 points beltrame had her best result here at wimbledon a good few years back when she reached the 4th round but she's the wrong side of thirty now and a shadow of her former self!! her form this year has been awful! she's lost to the likes of ungar,chaknashvili,tetreault,zahlavova,anna smith, picquoin,fichman and in front of her home crowd at the french qualifiers she lost to aniko kapros who is a very average player indeed! she might be living off her past glories a litttle with the bookies on this one!! zhang on the other hand has been in good shape this year!!she qualified for the french this year beating vidagany and zuzanna kucova on the way before finding petrova way too good!recently she won a challenger in maribor beating the likes of voracova,pervak and pous tio!she's a pretty flat hitter and i dont see why her game cant translate to grass! she's not the most reliable of course and can be error prone but i think her comfortable victory in the first round against tashvili is a good sign and i am happy to take her against a woefully out of form beltrame who could even have one eye on retirement if she keeps going at this rate!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
go azarenka!I know this isnt tennis from this week but it's a quick note an outright for Wimbledon which I think looks like a good price. Victoria Azarenka @ 101 with SportingBet - and I feel that's a ridiculous price. I thought she'd go down massively if she won today against Radwanska but no, still 100s available. She hasnt had the best season but she's still in the top 15 in the world which means a decent seeding and she reached the last 8 at Wimbledon last year losing to Serena Williams. Beating Radwankska was impressive, first of all in the manner 7-6 6-1, second of all because she is the no.8 in the world, and thirdly because Radwanska is no mug on a grass court (won junior Wimbledon, won at Eastbourne and reached the quarter finals at Wimbledon for the last two years). Just feel she is incredibly overpriced seeing as others are offering her at 20s! yeah actually agree with you there hornet! thats a huge price for a player of azarenkas quality!! even though she was woeful against dulko in roland garros ,it was probably too soon for her to come back after injury but the fact she beat radwanska who's best surface is also grass is a very good sign and i can easily see her get to the quarters at least.....and maybe you could cover your bet from there on in!!!! GL:hope -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June
tomljanovic wins 1-6,6-4,6-1! great win after a nightmare start! oprandi won easy too!! plenty of interesting match-ups in the qualifiers tomorrow!! looking forward to the prices!!alja tomljanovic to beat k kucova at evens 3 points paddypowers! i am loving this price in the wimbledon qualifiers!! tomjlanovic is a young 15 year old with bags of talent and a real bright future!! she has already beaten kucova this year in straight sets on hard court!! she has one two itf challenger events this year.....taken sets off the likes of sprem and shvedova....she held match points against shvedova!! at the french open qualifiers this year, she took a set off experienced betthanie mattek (an unlucky draw for her) and only last week she hammered the promising xinyun han on grass in the qualifiers of notthingham before pushing alison riske all the way in a tight 3 setter and riske went on a super run after that victory!! kucova is a experienced campaigner but far inferior to zuzanna kucova and she is not in great form this year if one looks at her results and i expect the feisty and talented tomljanovic to win this one!! i also like oprandi at 8-11 with bet365!! -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 June alja tomljanovic to beat k kucova at evens 3 points paddypowers! i am loving this price in the wimbledon qualifiers!! tomjlanovic is a young 15 year old with bags of talent and a real bright future!! she has already beaten kucova this year in straight sets on hard court!! she has one two itf challenger events this year.....taken sets off the likes of sprem and shvedova....she held match points against shvedova!! at the french open qualifiers this year, she took a set off experienced betthanie mattek (an unlucky draw for her) and only last week she hammered the promising xinyun han on grass in the qualifiers of notthingham before pushing alison riske all the way in a tight 3 setter and riske went on a super run after that victory!! kucova is a experienced campaigner but far inferior to zuzanna kucova and she is not in great form this year if one looks at her results and i expect the feisty and talented tomljanovic to win this one!! i also like oprandi at 8-11 with bet365!!
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Re: Tennis - June 7-13 karol beck to beat rajeev ram at 8-11 2 points! karol beck loves fast surfaces and his favourite surface has to be grass! last year he beat grass court specialist feliciano lopez in wimbledon (lopez has twice been a quarter finalist at wimby) then he lost in the second round in 5 grueling sets to nicolas almagro who is a classy player even on grass so he is certainly capable of mixing with the big boys(he's also beaten tommmy haas at the australian open)! his ranking has dropped in recent years due to a drug ban and injury problems but his form this year has improved! he has won two challengers, one in serbia where he beat tipseravic in the final and though he hasn't done much over the last few weeks, i wouldnt put it down to a loss of form as he has never liked the clay much!! ram really came out of nowhere to beat sam querrey in the final at pilot pen last year (on grass) but he really hasn't done much since! he has lost his last 5 matches to ginepri, james ward, marco crugnola, yuri schukin and alex bogdanovic and generally he has been on the wrong end of some heavy defeats so far this season(koellerer and odesnik)! he will welcome the arrival of the grass court season and he certainly has ability!! big serve and a big forehand!! but he is very inconsistent and not very confident at the moment! beck's most recent form has also been patchy but both men should consider the grass court season as a chance to pick up points and i feel that beck just has the better pedigree and will mentally tougher if the match gets tight which i am sure it probably will!! i also like naomi broadys chances against shenay perry at 7-4!! value price for a small punt!! broady is decent and pushed zvonareva all the way in the first round of wimbledon last year after she came through qualification!! perry on a very poor run of defeats the last one being to olivia sanchez in the french and i don't expect her to be quite as comfortable on the grass as broady who has had plenty of practice on the surface1
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Re: Tennis - June 7-13 there are plenty of matches taking place on the grass today and though there are many matches worth taking an interest in i am still a little disappointed by the draws! but anyway, here are a few prices that catch my eye! 1)dudi sela to beat guccione in halle aty 8-11 with boyles! i think there is a bit of a class difference here!! sela hasn't been in brilliant form this year but he has shown some signs of a return to form this last few weeks! he won a challenger event in rhodes greece on hard court a few weeks ago beating the likes of lu,muller and scheuttler on the way! he was competitive against melzer in the french open on clay which is a surface he really struggles on.....he doesn't have the power to hit through players on clay!! however, he should really welcome a return to the grass! he got to the fourth round of wimbledon last year beating schuettler and robredo to get there before finding djokovic to good! he thrives on pace, is a bit of a counter-puncher and most of all HE LOVES A TARGET!! he loves playing against these serve volley type of players which is exactly what guccione is!! guccione has a huge serve and when he's playing well, he certainly is dangerous but his form of late has been very suspect!! he lost last week on grass in straights to go soeda and his other three outings have been straight sets losses to daniel king turner, robby kendrick and go soeda (all players performing below sela's level) and 8-11 seems like a very generous price to me on sela in this one!! even though the grass should suit guccione, he has only been past the 1st round of wimbledon once before and that was because his first round opponent was alex bogdanovic!!! i also agree with psycho on lacko at 6-4! this is the value price for me to beat chardy whose form this year has been poor but i think he's a very limited player on grass! saw him last year against schuettler and it was just an error fest!! if lacko can remain solid i think he should get past the erratic chardy who is hardly full of confidence after the way he let leyton hewitt walk all over him in front of home support in roland garros! as psycho said lacko did well here last year, he took a set off youzny in the french open! his confidence is up!! chardy likes a little bit more time to set up his shots than he is going to get on the grass and he can get frustrated by this! only a small wager on this one though1
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Re: Tennis - French Open samantha stosur to beat rosanna de los rios minus 6.5 games 4-6! stosur is simply in great shape and in the first round she beat the dangerous and talented simona halep by 7 games!! for me i see no reason why she can't do the same to veteran rosanna de los rios!! she will get a look-in in every service game and i can see her at least running away with 1 set 6-1! de los rios generally has no answer when she comes up againsyt the big guns in slams and stosur is seeing the ball so well....i just can't see her giving rosanna a look-in here!3 points
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Re: Tennis - French Open just regards the other picks!! ball plus 6.5 games against troiki was on the basis that ball has a pretty good serve and beating petschner in 5 sets was a good result! i didn't think he would be easy to break and that he could keep sets close at least!! also troiki often has lapses in concentration during matches! (but it turned out not this one.....as troiki won 6-4,6-3,6-3) sorry about that if people followed me!! also kuznetsova at 8-15!! basically i thought kuznetsova looked very impressive against cirstea winning 12 of the last 14 games!! she basically outplayed her and looked very sharp!! she is the defending champion and i expect her to make a deep run again here!! her opponent today is undoubtedly talented and there has been plenty of money put on her but petkovic for me still for all her talent has no real grand slam pedigree!! never been past the second round of a slam!! she's an excellent returner and is aggressive no doubt but not a particularly good defender and kuzie will no doubt make her run!! i think there is a class difference really and even if petkovic does win a set i have my doubts whether she really has the metal to take out the champ when the going gets tough! i like beck minus 7.5 because i thinbk he can take a set off wawrinka!! he's a streaky player and when he's on fire he's almost unstoppable! He finally seems to have found some stability in his serve as cornell mentioned and though wawrinka should win comfortably enough in the end as the ultra-aggressive beck is still too inconsistent i think beck will have his moments in this one!i like hercog at 2-1 against safarova because i think there is good value in the price! she brushed aside potential tricky opponent in japanese girl doi in the first round! and safarova can never be trusted at short odds....very inconsistent especially on clay! hercog also unlike a lot of young players these days isn't just a ballbasher.....she's comfortable at the net and has a nice drop shot and can maybe take safarova out of her comfort zone! she wont be afraid to win it either!! so 2-1 is value! my ouanna handicap bet looks like a disaster already......but at least the lacko bet is already a winner and the overs on the benneteau match looks to be safe too so hopefully we're on the way to a winning day!!
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Re: Tennis - French Open regarding tipping benneteau against mayer! its based on his performance against gulbis in the first round! i thought he was outstanding!! he has a great all court game and his forehand which is usually the shot that lets him down was operating very well!! he's a great match player when he's feeling it and has been deep in the french twice making the second week and giving roger a great match most recently! (2008) i just think he has more variety than mayer who i also rate highly as a match player but i think his game is a little bit one dimensional!! hopefully h e wins a set off benneteau who usually ahs wobbly moments and phases in matches!! hopefully benneteau still comes through though
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Re: Tennis - French Open with regards the other bets i will give my reasoning now!! the treble is a confident pick! murray is a class above chela and i thought he played fantastic to get by gasquet who was on fire for much of that match!! he cant slip up here against an opponent who he has beaten comfortably the last 5 times he has played him! monfils loves the french open and i cant see him lose to fognini who needed 5 stes to get past old man massu who is past it really!! monfils always brings his a-game to the french! bagdatis is in great form this year! he has an all court game and relishes the big matches in grand slams and i can't see him slip up against granollers who is a game battler but has too many weaknesses that baggy can expose (backhand)!
Tennis - Wimbledon
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon so that means i'm tipping nicolas almagro to beat andreas seppi at evens with paddypower 2 points for the reasons i have just said above!!