Lars
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Posts posted by Lars
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Re: 15:45 Southwell I know it's after-eventing of sorts, but Alpha Tauri was the absolute obvious bet if it came from any other connections rather than Guest/McKay. He had solid course and distance form, didn't shape badly past two starts and was on a good mark if getting a lead, which was fairly likely. Unfortunately, I slept in, missed the prices and then didn't go in when the drift on Betfair occurred, so I'm exceptionally annoyed with myself.
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Re: The Jockey Thread I can't quite believe what I'm reading tonight from a couple of you, and I know it may seem quite offensive to say you're "bonkers" and the like, but the stuff you've come up with tonight is absolutely ludicrous, bordering on the defamatory and quite plainly wrong. The fact is, that SNA was given an easy time of it by Joseph O'Brien today for the most part because they'd thought he'd absolutely hack up. The field wasn't that great, Sharestan is rated 108 and probably capable of a bit better, but the field was hardly full of brilliant types. Windsor Palace was rated 99, can set decent fractions in front and is at least genuine, but hadn't won since 2007 and that included in races that he would have had a chance in, including in a handicap behind Sharestan in March, off a mark of 95! The notion that Windsor Palace had been plotted for this race that Aidy and Jimmy are suggesting is quite frankly, the most silly thing I've ever heard. You're giving Aidan O'Brien almost godlike status, he's a brilliant horseman, and will perhaps go down as one of the best ever (just see my post on the 1000 Guineas thread, his theory on stalls is probably the main reason for his second string filly winning so comfortably). But, for you to think that he could be confident about a 98 rated handicapper winning a Group 3 race, with a top-class 1m4f+ horse in attendance alongside another who had the beating of him this season (30l), then you're mental. The thing regarding starting prices and "private bookmakers" has been corrected by Erhaab, Private bookmakers don't run their own little private markets do they? They'd have to do some trading to cover some "big bets" that connections of Windsor Palace have allegedly landed today, and where would them bets go? The big bookmakers and therefore lowering the starting price. Second/Third strings do win races, look at Godolphin (where betting isn't really on connections minds, work-riders often know more than the trainers do at the early stages of a horse's career with the Godolphin stable (that is actually a fact), especially as they have so many horses spread over so many stables, they find it difficult to reasonably assess juveniles/young horses against each other in a race, so that's why the red-caps often win. In handicaps too, seemingly lower strings win, sometimes an upturn in performance is expected and second string colours are put on to get a better price, other times it may just be that the performance is a surprise. Horses aren't machines and can run better/worse than the form you're suggesting. But comparing these incidents to today or yesterday, where you're saying that Homecoming Queen was expected to get close to Maybe and they landed some big bets in the process is completely rubbish. Maybe's failure to win would have lost them plenty in potential fees for her progeny, whilst you could argue that G1 success for Homecoming Queen would increase her value for whatever she produced, those losses are going to count against her in the bloodstock market. As for AOB being on his phone all the time, he's been on the phone plenty of times when Tabor/Magnier etc have been at the course with him, so I don't quite see who'd he be talking to then. This forum tries to promote "good-quality reasoning" and a decent level of quality is tried to be attained, but posts like those above really do knock the forum. They're ill-informed, defamatory, and just against all logic. I can't quite believe that people reasonably thought there was some other explanation in the entry of Windsor Palace other than to set a fierce pace with stablemate Robin Hood, so they'd be at least a reasonable stamina test for SNA to make sure it didn't become a sprint for home. J O'Brien got his tactics wrong, as did Jonny Murtagh, but apart from that, there's nothing to suggest anything else. No signs from the bookmakers who would actual squeal like pigs if they'd taken some bets on Windsor Palace. He was a pacemaker that managed to hang on, nothing more. Just think. Please?
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Re: The Jockey Thread
Lets skip the conspiracy theories regarding America, as I didn't actually think reasonable thinking people believed that stuff, but there we go. So you too agree that the plan always was for Windsor Palace to win today and they'd land a few bets in the process? I just need to know, merely so I don't class you as some grade A nutter...But this is not the theme. In our beloved sport is a lot more money involved than in any other sport. Open your eyes. -
Re: The Jockey Thread
I must be being 'had' here, as if people are seriously suggesting today's event was some kind of Ballydoyle masterplan to land a few nice bets on a 99 rated exposed handicapper in a Group 3 contest including an improving type from a completely separate operation, then you'd have to be completely bonkers.I can't work out if there is a degree of fishing going on here or this is actually serious?! If Windsor won and it was down to some skulduggery then why was he 66/1 and 230 on Betfair?!?! St Nicholas Abby was backed all day and there was money for the second fav on course too... Where is Aiden etc getting their money on?!? I'm not saying the game is straight but that was just JoB and Murtugh screwing up... -
Re: The Jockey Thread Some of you are absolutely mental :lol What do you guys think about the 9/11 attacks? You seem the sort to believe it was the American Government who carried it out. What about the moon landings? :lol Windsor Palace today was JOB getting it wrong, and the pacemaker improving to hang out in front longer than he has previously been doing. He had the benefit of fitness, a competent ride and was obviously game in front. Homecoming Queen likely benefitted from the fact she didn't enter the stalls, and that she'd likely come on an absolute bundle for her first outing. The fact is, comparing Aidan O'Brien to Jamie Osborne's misdamenour a fair few years ago now, is completely off the mark. The fact is, Coolmore aren't really that bothered with landing gambles, they've been known to, but if there money was down then like hell they'd have gone off 66/1 (230 BSP) and 25/1. Biggest reported bet on course for Homecoming Queen - -£500 Each Way for return of £12500, whilst Maybe - £2000-£1000 £1500-£800 (x2) £3500-£2000 (x3) £1750-£1000 (x2) £6000-£4000 £1800-£1200 £1500-£1000 (x2). Although, many of those bets would have been on-course punters/bookmakers anyway, the point still stands to a degree.
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Re: The Jockey Thread Aidy's kind of right with the Nephrite one, as they obviously knew he was better than the odds were in the morning, but to say Homecoming Queen and Windsor Castle were plots by the yard is fanciful.
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. I'm stealing this off another forum, link provided just to give 'Spook' some credit.
Might shed some light on the matter :ok[TABLE=class: tborder, width: 100%, align: center] [TR] [TD=class: alt1, bgcolor: #F5F5F5]I'm just wondering if there's something in what they said during the period it took to get the race off. The less informed Ch4 team were blathering away about keeping warm, staying loose, and getting the weight off their backs, etc but during this period they snatched a few words with the more scientific and knowledgeable Aiden O'Brien who quite without prompting launched into an analysis of how a horses heartbeat responds the moment they're loaded in the stalls (something I assume he's monitored before) and lets be honest, there was a time in the past where Aiden used to personally supervise the loading of his horses. There is that bit of me that can't get away from the fact that the two horses who weren't put into the stalls and therefore endured this stress loading on their heart were the ones that came first and second, whilst the third was the fav and the 'best of the rest'[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: The Jockey Thread
:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol This is Aidan O'Brien, not Barney Curley!Erhaab, i am afraid i think you are in cuckoo land! He LET the front-runner win, just like the plot on Homecoming Queen, just like the plot to get Nephrite beat... If your a trainer, do you want your 1/4 shot to win, or do you want a 66/1 shot to win? They all had that outsider backed. -
Re: Flat racing ~ Sunday 6th May ROCK A DOODLE DOO (14:05) almost looks too good to be true, given he handles soft ground and looks to be on a very workable mark. His yard are yet to have a winner in 2012 but he is still worthy of investment, especially as she’s gone well fresh in the past and looks to need a big-field handicap like this one to show his best. An improver on the all-weather in 2010, he was only seen five times on turf last year but made a striking impression on more than one start. His win on fast ground over this trip at Ascot was taking, not getting the best of runs but still winning, and showing that a decent pace in a big-field was what he really needs. This was followed subsequently by a really unlucky run at Royal Ascot, where he was hampered and blocked in on numerous occasions before finally getting a clear run. It came all too late but he did ridiculously well to finish only 4 lengths behind Fox Hunt that day and importantly, that start came on soft ground which should mean today’s conditions are no problem. He had excuses on his next two starts, not staying further at York and then being given far too much to do back to 1m4f at Ascot and this has meant he’s now 3lbs lower than the aforementioned Royal Ascot effort, so he looks obviously well-handicapped. His fitness has to be taken on trust having not been seen for 274 days but went very well on seasonal reappearance last time round and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He often finds trouble and might be one of those types who is just constantly unlucky, so reuniting him with Martin Dwyer, who was on board for his last success, could be no bad thing. Rock A Doodle Doo is well-handicapped, being easily capable of running to 104 or so in this sort of strongly run handicap, with conditions no problem and available at double-figure odds, he’s definitely worth a bet. The yard’s current slight slump is a little worrying, but Oriental Scot for that stable ran very well this week (would have won with a better draw) and losing runs are always going to occur with a fairly small pool of horses. Hopefully this one can end that slump, and he has plenty in his favour to do so today and I’d be backing him up until the 8/1 mark. Bets 14:05 Newmarket – Rock A Doodle Doo; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog)
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Re: Guinees day weather From the RP live reporter.
"There have been plenty of course walkers in the last 30 mins and two of them have differing views. John Oxx says: "It's not bad at all - what we would call yielding. It is not a worry to us and we won't be making excusesbecause of it even though Born To Sea would prefer faster ground." Gerard Butler, also out with his wooden stick, said: "I think it is still soft but it is drying out by the hour." Butler could yet pull out top-of-the-ground performer Prince Alzain and wait for the Dee Stakes at Chester." -
Re: Early market info / trainer-bookie links - Selections Sat 5th May ***Nmkt/Gdwd***
Hi Dazza, we ask members to post reasoning with their selections, alongside the race-time and price taken. It helps to maintain the quality on here and allows people to read into why they've selected a certain horse, and encourage/discourage them from following if they so wish. Alongside this, selections should be posted in the Daily Thread, found here
http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129733-Flat-racing-Saturday-5th-May :ok -
Re: Caesar's bets As Aidy said really, daily selections should be posted here with reasoning/bookmaker prices and stake. You'll soon pick it up :ok
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Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May
Hi Bruce, welcome to PL :ok We ask members to post reasoning with their selections, alongside the race-time and price taken. It helps to maintain the quality on here and allows people to read into why they've selected a certain horse, and encourage/discourage them from following if they so wish.Polygon @ 7/1 Neutrafa @ 5/1 Spanish Duke @ 10/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW -
Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May SILENCEOFTHEWIND (15:20) shaped better than the bare form suggests a week ago at Ripon and down in grade, down in trip, down 3lbs in the handicap with a capable 3lb claimer on board he should go really well although it may well be that we have to wait a start or two to really see the best of this horse, I just think he’s worth chancing today at a decent price. A highly-tried juvenile, he’s been fairly lightly-raced for a five year old and has obviously had some problems. He did show some very respectable handicap form last season, notably when 2nd over this C&D last August off a 1lb higher mark. That was on heavy ground and he travelled supremely well, looking like the winner some way out but he just got collared late on. It proved that he goes well on any surface and he backed that effort up with a fair performance over a mile, just shaping that 7f is his ideal trip. He had no luck on his last start in 2011 and his two efforts this term haven’t looked the most encouraging. Entitled to come on for his first start, the second last week, when beaten 12 lengths, is more encouraging than at first glance. Firstly, he pulled too hard in the early stages of the race over a mile, but still held every chance around 2f from home. It’s fair to say he was given considerate handling on the run-in, but perhaps it was because there wasn’t the greatest amount of room. He didn’t have a hard race though and was eased up when his chance was gone, probably adding another 5 lengths to the margin of his defeat. I’m expecting better from him in due course, and today looks a fair opportunity for him. He’s back to his best distance in 7f at a track he goes well at, has the assistance of a 3lb claimer who has struck up a good relationship with this stable (2/13, plenty gone close) and looks attractively handicapped off this rating. It may be that we have to wait for another drop in grade to see the best of Silenceofthewind but he looks too big a price to overlook today, with plenty to suit and a yard who continue to go well. -- AL KHAN (16:20) participates in a horrendously competitive handicap but still looks on a fair mark and should well be up to improving this season, especially as his performances over 7f were encouraging but showed definite signals that he was an out and out sprinter. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s given the impression that he handles softer ground, so rates as a bet in a tough race. Three times raced, he won well on fast ground on debut over this distance, travelling well and staying on strongly in a race that worked out OK. He looked a decent prospect and was pitched into a Group 3 at York. He looked a big threat as he travelled powerfully, trading at 2.20 but he just didn’t seem to stay the extra furlong and faded in the closing stages. This was a similar effort to the one he posted in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Again, he travelled well in rear before making what looked like a strong challenge, this time trading at 3.00 before fading yet again in the closing stages. It just seems that as a juvenile, the 7f was just too far for him, and he looks an ideal candidate to drop back to sprinting. His fitness will have to be taken on trust but he looks the type to improve as a three year old (related to high-class performers who got better with age) and this one still looks ahead of his mark, especially as he was competitive for a long while in races against the likes of Trumpet Major and Caledonian Spring, who have gone on to be capable performers. I think a mark within the 100’s is a fair target for Al Khan and it all depends on whether Peter Chapple-Hyam has got him ready first time up, it’s a big prize though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big run. He travels well on soft ground so today’s conditions shouldn’t be any bother and a price around the 7/1 mark would be fair, so he’s well worth investing in. It’s a hugely competitive handicap and only worthy of a small investment, but he repay us at some point during 2012, hopefully today. -- WANNABE KING (16:30) is on such a good mark now and he’ll no doubt be picking up a decent handicap prize at some point, and today’s race looks an ideal opportunity given he shaped as if retaining his ability when running over the wrong trip under the wrong conditions on seasonal reappearance. Geoffrey Harker is easily capable of landing this sort of prize and he should run well, as long as no further rain hits Thirsk. A winner off a mark of 95 at around this time last season in a competitive race at Sandown over this mile distance, he didn’t have the greatest amount of luck subsequently but didn’t shape badly off a rating of 97 at Ascot and Ripon, showing that there was still plenty of ability still in the locker. His form nosedived towards the end of the season but he’s never ran well from September onwards and he’s always seemed to be a little on the fragile side, so it may be best just to overlook his late season efforts. He since joined current connections and his reappearance effort was actually really encouraging. It came over 1m2f (a distance too far) and on really soft ground (which he hates) and with a first-time visor, he looked for a short time that he might seriously trouble the principles. He just got tired late on but it was a far from disgraceful effort in a race that connections wouldn’t have been too keen to win, as it would have likely destroyed his workable handicap rating. That mark has now dropped to one of 90 which is obviously one he’s more than capable of winning from. This is his time of the year, looks to be in decent enough form and gets his ideal trip today of a mile. Big-fields are no bother to him and my only slight concerns would be to the softer ground, albeit Thirsk seems to be drying all the time, and the fact that the Visor may not work as well again second time round. Those risks are factored into his current price though, and it’s one that is well worth taking. Even with Farrhh involved in the race, who could be a Group horse in a handicap, Wannabe King should be no bigger than the 10/1 mark, and ranks as a fair bet here today. He’s bound to go well if the ground dries up and his last run looked like a tune-up for this sort of valuable, early-season handicap. -- THE NIFTY FOX (18:05) hasn’t won since October 2009, which probably isn’t the best place to start my reasoning for why I think he’s overpriced, but he recently hasn’t been racing on tracks that ideally suit him, and he’s subsequently come down in the ratings. A sharper track is his preference and he gets that today, and with ground not an issue and running off a mark he hasn’t been seen off since 2006, he could potentially go extremely well. Prior to his seasonal reappearance eight days ago, he’d only been beaten by a maximum of 5.25 lengths on his previous five starts and he’s hardly been beaten out of sight, merely, he just looked a little too high in the weights. Certainly, running him on the wrong sort of track generally wouldn’t have helped him either. He does best on a sharp circuit, as 4/7 wins have come from Catterick or Musselburgh. Those recent runs have come from places such as Hamilton (which to be fair, he has won at but I don’t really think it suits ideally), Carlisle and Pontefract and those places have a stiff finish. Thirsk should suit much better and his last visit over this C&D came at this time last year, running a big race off an 11lbs higher mark. It may just be that The Nifty Fox is just a perennial loser and no matter how far you’ll drop him in the weights, he’ll always finish about 3 or 4 lengths behind the winner, but he’s fallen to such a tempting mark over conditions that will suit which means he’s a bet today. He’ll be much sharper for a reappearance effort at Doncaster when not really given a hard time and at prices around the 20/1 mark, he’s definitely worth chancing that he can get his head in front, as this isn’t really that strong considering there’s a big-field on show today. Bets 15:20 Thirsk – Silenceofthewind; 2pts @ 16/1 Paddy Power (bog) 16:20 Newmarket – Al Khan; 1pt @ 10/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power (bog) 16:30 Thirsk – Wannabe King; 2pts @ 16/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes (bog) 18:05 Thirsk – The Nifty Fox; 1pt @ 20/1 Paddy Power (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May TIMELESS ELEGANCE (15:40) made a satisfactory reappearance last time out after a fair absence and she’s likely capable of better still with a run under her belt, she looks the type to keep progressing and has joined an extremely capable yard with this sort of horse, so she ranks as a bet in quite a competitive heat. A winner for Howard Johnson over 6f-7f, her last victory came off a 2lb higher mark in July 2011, so she’s far from handicapped out of things today, especially as she’s only raced twice since. One of those starts came far too soon and she dropped out tamely but her reappearance effort at Catterick over 7f was one of promise, showing good early speed and just tiring in the last couple of furlongs. She looked an obvious candidate to come on for that effort (even though she had won fresh in the past) and the step-back in trip looks the obvious move too, especially given she possesses plenty of speed (capable over 5f too). A mark of 74 won’t be the ceiling of her ability, especially as she comes from a late-developing family and it’s interesting that Graham Gibbons comes here to ride, instead of Musselburgh where the David Barron yard have a couple with chances. She’s worthy of a small/medium sized bet as I think she deserves to be favourite, although money for Mawjoodah is a worry, that one is no value now and there’s certainly legs in the 13/2 about Timeless Elegance, as I have her at about the 9/2 mark. She’ll be suited by the drop back to 6f, comes from a yard who are going well and she still looks capable of running to a mark well into the 80’s in this sort of contest. -- I’ve been waiting for the step up to 7f or further for INDIAN ARROW (17:00) and he’s certainly capable of winning off a mark of 55, emphasised when having no luck over 6f on his penultimate start. Although not showing a great deal last time, I think there are reasons to think he can improve for the step up in trip and the scorching pace likely today will suit, so I believe he can prove his last time out form all wrong. Still a maiden after 10 starts, he’s always shaped to me that he isn’t quite quick enough for sprinting trips, often making ground late on but never getting there in time. He needs them to go quick up-front and they certainly did that on his penultimate start, where he received no luck in-running when absolutely cruising and it’s fair to say, he’d have won well. I think he needs to be held-up off a strong pace and those tactics weren’t deployed last time, as he was prominently placed off a moderate gallop. That would have suited most horses but Indian Arrow really needs the leaders to come back to him, and that obviously never occurred with a runaway front-runner making all and winning. He still ran respectably, but was beaten 4.75 lengths. In theory, today’s contest will be run in an ideal fashion, especially as there’s at least three confirmed pace-setters and there should definitely be a good gallop on. Michael O’Connell is more experienced than most of these apprentices and I just hope they hold Indian Arrow up off the likely strong pace, as if they do, then he has every chance here. That’s his want and although there are small doubts as to whether he’ll act on slower turf, for a handicapping perspective, he’s worth a chance today. He steps up to a trip that I think might be ideal, especially on a sharp circuit, will get the race run to suit and is easily capable of winning off a mark of 55. Plenty in this race come in with chances but Indian Arrow should be priced closer to the 11/2 mark than his current odds and is also worth a standard sized bet. Bets 15:40 Wolverhampton – Timeless Elegance; 2pts @ 13/2 Boylesports (bog) 17:00 Musselburgh – Indian Arrow; 2pts @ 8/1 Boylesports (bog)
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Re: He's back.......
First Order was fatally injured, hence why Pawan didn't run.Pawan's a NR. First Order failed to finish the 2:10... -
Re: Flat Racing 30th April
Although he ended up 3rd, it's a cruel cruel game sometimes. Cruising on the bridle and still a length clear with less than a furlong to go, trades at 1.40 and loses two places. :\18:25 Wolverhampton – Wind Star; 1pt @ 18/1 William Hill (bog) -
Re: Flat Racing 30th April WIND STAR (18:25) drops back in trip today and that looks needed after a fairly promising show over 1m4f last time, which was his second run back from an extended absence. This drop in trip will help and the drop in grade will surely assist him, and with more positive handling he can definitely go close off a career low mark of 55. The selection was previously a very decent horse, last winning a handicap off a mark of 83. That was back in 2009 and his last positive showing was all the way back in 2010 off a rating of 80, so it may seem like I’m clutching at straws a bit. However, Wind Star missed the entire of 2011 and his run last time signalled that a return to form over better conditions was plausible. His reappearance effort was pretty lifeless, but that was to be expected really off such a long break and he improved for that significantly last time. Backed at big odds, he travelled into the race really well, but didn’t really pick up in the last two furlongs and ended up beaten by around 10 lengths. The way he travelled that day suggests that this extended mile trip should suit, especially if the race is strongly run. That’s likely enough today with Strong Vigilance and Takhreej both capable of leading and the race should be run at a fair gallop. The reapplication of cheekpieces is also a positive, as his two efforts with them applied; he was beaten by less than 2 lengths on each occasion. Those were races where he was running off 25lbs higher than he does so it’s fair to say he definitely benefits from wearing them, so it should definitely sharpen him. Stronger handling in Kirsty Milczarek will also help taking over from an apprentice and a bold showing in a race that will be run to suit, with cheekpieces back on and off a ridiculously low mark, mean he’s worthy of a small bet. BILKO PAK (20:55) has similar characteristics to the above selection. Cheekpieces are reapplied for the first time in a while, and when he last wore them he showed a decent level of form in them for the grade, so their reapplication is a plus. The switch up to 7f from sprinting trips will also suit, having looked to need further than 6f earlier in his career and his best recent form at sprinting distances indicated that he needed further. His reappearance effort last time also indicated that he needed the trip and with stronger handling again also a plus, from a career low mark, the similarities with stable mate Wind Star really do start to add up. Bilko Pak is an ex-Richard Hannon inmate who hasn’t won since his juvenile days with that yard, but showed a fair level of form in that grade when rated higher during 2011, alongside a couple of creditable performances in handicaps off marks in the 70’s. I don’t quite think he’s a lost cause, although his tendency to start slowly recently is a cause for concern, at least the step up in trip will be less of a disadvantage. Down to a career low mark, back to a distance that I think might be his best and with cheekpieces reapplied, dropped in grade and with stronger handling today, he’s also worthy of a small bet. Bets 18:25 Wolverhampton – Wind Star; 1pt @ 18/1 William Hill (bog) 20:55 Wolverhampton – Bilko Pak; 1pt @ 25/1 William Hill (bog) Wind Star + Bilko Pak; 1pt double @ 493/1 William Hill (bog)
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CADOUDALAS (16:25) showed a bit more than he had for a while last time out when running over hurdles and although conditions are currently not in his favour, rain is expected to fall all day at Ludlow and by the off-time, the going is likely to be on the testing side. This suits Cadoudalas perfectly and off a fairly decent mark, with Tom Scudamore booked for the first time since the start of the season, he can definitely go well. The selection was a big improver for the switch to fences, winning three times in the 2010/11 season when encountering a soft/heavy surface, flying up the weights as a result and starting this season off a mark of 137. He showed definite promise on his seasonal reappearance, just getting caught out by the quicker ground but subsequent efforts have been poor to say the least. They included when never travelling a yard at Chepstow on Welsh National day and he obviously hasn’t been quite right this time around. Still, I’m expecting a much bolder show today. Firstly, he gets on really well with Tom Scudamore who is a dab hand at getting a horse to be prominent and kicking for home quite a way out, which is exactly what this horse likes to do. Cadoudalas is a much better chaser than he is over hurdles so his last two efforts should just be regarded as “confidence boosters†in my view and his run last time out certainly wasn’t dreadful, showing up well for a long way before fading in the home straight on ground that certainly would have been on the quick side. A handicap mark of 132 is certainly there for the taking if back to anything like his best, over a trip of 2m4f that he looked to need in the early part of 2011. Soft ground is his want and if the forecasts are right, that’ll certainly occur and at these prices, he’s definitely worth chancing that he’ll come back to form. Bets 16:25 Ludlow – Cadoudalas; 2pts @ 20/1 Paddy Power, William Hill (bog)
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Re: jump racing saturday - 28th april THE PIER (14:00) has been overlooked by Tom Scudamore but this horse holds a very solid chance after an encouraging first couple of starts for David Pipe. He ran with credit last time even though nothing went his way and with a stronger pace likely and the ground conditions unlikely to bother him, he still looks well-handicapped and is capable of going close. The Pier ran to a decent enough level in Ireland as a novice and his first two starts in 2012 have been promising. He finished behind stable-mate Star Of Angels, who was well-held on his last start back in January at Wincanton on a soft surface. It was The Pier’s first run over hurdles for some time and shaped like further improvement would follow in due course. The market fully expected this when sent off a 9/2 chance at Cheltenham 10 days ago, but he was too keen in a slowly run race and didn’t quite get home, albeit looking like he still might win with two hurdles to jump. That was over slightly further than today which will help but their being a better pace likely today should also do the trick. The Pier goes on the ground, hinted that he could be better than a 127 horse as a novice and then showed it two starts ago at Wincanton, where he indicated he’d be more than capable of landing a decent handicap like this one. Small/medium stakes should do the trick and if we get a decent gallop today, which is more than likely, then I have The Pier at around an 11/2 chance. -- ENTER PARADISE (15:10) is probably capable of better than a handicap rating of 134 and looks the sort of horse to stay this 3m5f trip. Whether he’ll be good enough for such a competitive race is debateable but he’s overpriced for an in-form yard and if his jumping holds up, then he’s more than capable of running a big race. He’s had 17 starts in Point to Points but only three under rules, which does mean he can still easily be classed as “unexposedâ€. The first of those two starts came over 3m4f in 2011 where he looked to see out the trip quite well, albeit it being a poor race compared to today’s contest. Enter Paradise was then dropped in trip to 3m1f around Fakenham and he showed enough speed to handle the unique track, but stayed the distance really well and looked capable of better at further. His jumping was a little sketchy on a couple of occasions and this could well be his main frailty, having unseated his rider at Cheltenham in the Foxhunter after the third fence. It may be that he just doesn’t handle the jumping test that this race holds but I’m more than willing to give him a chance here. Firstly, he’s a winner on heavy ground in P2P races and it’s probable that he’ll act on the ground today. Charlie Mann has his string amongst the winners over the past few days and this is a good sign from a yard that’ve been quiet over the winter. Sandown tends to suit prominent runners as it’s very hard to make ground from off the pace and Enter Paradise fits the bill in this department too. With this in mind, prices of around the 33/1 mark are worthy of a small investment, given he’s likely to handle the ground, will be suited by the way the race should unfold and that he should stay the trip. He’s a grand type physically from what I can tell and has the physique to challenge in these sorts of contests. Whether he can, is again debateable and he’s probably more likely to fall than win, but I can see him being with every chance with a few fences to run, especially as many of these today won’t go a yard in this ground. -- Bets 14:00 Sandown – The Pier; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill (bog) 15:10 Sandown – Enter Paradise; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 28th April SILVERY MOON (14:20) should relish the testing ground as his action looks ready-made for this sort of test and he’ll have almost certainly improved for his seasonal reappearance, and with that run under his belt he still looks extremely well-handicapped from a mark of 82, with improvement well into the 90’s far from out of the question on this sort of surface. The selection started life in handicaps off a mark of 70 but showed that to be wrong when hacking up by 6 lengths at Redcar back in August. Many might have thought that he’d have struggled off a revised rating and seemed too initially, before bouncing back in taking style at Ayr on his final start of the 2011 season. He came into the closing stages travelling well and came nicely clear, before idling markedly in the final furlong. He never looked like getting caught though and I’m convinced he’s value for more than the 6lb rise he was dealt. He looked then like he still was capable of maturing physically and I’m sure over the winter he’s continued to grow. There was nothing wrong with his seasonal reappearance over 7f, a trip that was always going to be too sharp. He wasn’t hit with the stick once and he stuck on quite well after dropping away from the front of affairs and he’ll have surely come on for that, even accounting for the common belief that Tim Easterby’s improve for the outing. Silvery Moon has a real soft-ground action and has decent form on a testing surface in maiden company, so the ground will be right up his street and he looks capable of decent improvement. He’s more than likely matured physically over the winter, will handle the ground and the way he won in September gives the impression that plenty more is to come. I think he could easily be rated in the 90’s before too long and at a double figure price, he’s worth a good bet. I had him at around a 6/1 chance really. The contest lacks depth with the ground being a big question mark over plenty who line up, and the fact that the current favourite has done all his winning on better ground just shows that there’s plenty of value to be found at bigger prices. With the Tim Easterby yard flying, I’m expecting a big performance today. -- LITTLE ROCKY (19:10) gets his ground today and with the booking of Paul Hanagan one of intent; he’s more than capable of running a big race in conditions he should enjoy. Fairly lightly-raced, as are many of these, he ran a career best on heavy ground in maiden company when behind subsequent group winner in Sea Moon at the end of 2010. After winning his maiden with relative ease, he initially looked on a stiff mark when well-beaten off a rating of 87 on handicap debut. However, his next two starts have been better than the bare form for numerous reasons. The first, on the July course at Newmarket, was over a mile and he didn’t get the best of trips, having to go quite wide but stayed on well and looked an obvious candidate to go up in trip. Getting exactly that on his last start, the step up in trip to 1m2f suited but the race failed to pan out favourably. He got into some trouble when hampered towards the start of the race and the contest itself generally favoured those close to, or tracking the pace. Little Rocky did very well to get a close as he did from the rear of the field and it was definitely a performance to mark up a couple of lbs, especially given how plenty hadn’t gone his way. He hasn’t been seen since so I obviously have no idea to his current fitness levels but the booking of Paul Hanagan is a positive one, and he holds a 2/10 strike-rate for the stable. It seems a funny decision if they were only here for the outing and I’ll take the hint that he’ll be ready to roll. That’s also more likely with the ground coming in his favour, and the fact is that it may be sometime before it does so again, and I presume connections will want to capitalise on the rain we’ve had. Little Rocky has a real soft ground action, form on heavy ground and still looks capable of further progression off what looked a stiff rating of 87. This 1m2f trip is perfect for where he is now and if getting more luck in-running than on his previous two outings, he’s more than likely to take a hand in the finish. This is competitive, as many come in with claims of their own as to further progression but the ability to handle the ground is a big plus on days like today and with that not a problem for Little Rocky, he’s the bet. Bets 14:20 Ripon – Silvery Moon; 3pts @ 12/1 William Hill (bog) 19:10 Doncaster – Little Rocky; 2pts @ 9/1 Bet365 (bog)
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Re: PL 10 to follow Flat 2012 Competition - Enter your selections now
He also isn't on the list.I think Census is dead mate -
Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? I used to be in a similar camp to Fintron, that I would back each-way at prices upwards of the 5/1 mark, and anything upwards of that I'd be backing each-way regardless unless I particularly felt that it was a "win or bust" horse, where I might pluck up the courage to do a win bet for a big priced one. I decided to go down a similar route as Monte in about November time. I'd had the best run of my life over the previous two months and after having a good look through my results, I realised that I'd had more winners than placed efforts, which you wouldn't really expect to be true. It just seems that the sort of horse I generally go for (overpriced, not entirely obvious) leads to them winning or doing nothing at all. There's always going to be big priced runners-up, I had two in two days at 14/1 beaten in a photo, win only at the start of this year but that's life. I've probably saved 50pts since starting this win-only scheme in not putting in the place part of the bet when they're beaten out of sight. I'm also prone to going on long losing runs (as I do back at big prices) and this includes horses not even making the frame, doing each-way bets just compounds the losses further. I guess it should really depend on what sort of horses you go for, if you pick more obvious candidates that are more or less guaranteed to place, then by all means, an each-way bet is a realistic option. It just isn't for me any more with my current style of picking selections and when a winner does finally go in, backing win-only maximises the returns.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 18th of April COURAGEOUS (15:20) doesn’t win that often but still doesn’t look badly handicapped and will be suited by the stiff 5f here at Beverley, especially on a track that suits front-runners and he can go close, with changeable conditions unlikely to be a problem and race fitness assured. He comes off two encouraging efforts on the all-weather over 6f, the first of which he hung on in front for a lot longer than his 25/1 starting price entitled him to, and his last start being in a race where he was unable to get a lead, but still ran really respectably. Courageous’ last win came over 6f and he’s yet to win at this 5f trip but this stiff test at Beverley should be ideal. This C&D often favours front-runners and although there’s plenty in the way of pace in this race, Courageous has an ideal sit in stall 2 and should be more than capable of leading early on. He’ll be difficult to peg back if so and although he’s not my usual sort of price, I feel he should be closer to the 4/1 mark in this race, so his current odds mean he’s worthy of an investment. Any rain won’t hinder his chances, he still looks on a very workable mark of 86, especially as he’s looked on occasions that he can run to a rating well into the 90’s, he has the benefit of race fitness and also many of these will be targeting bigger pots later in the season, whilst Courageous will need to improve a few lbs in order to gain entry. Today could be a perfect opportunity for that and although a competitive heat, he’s up to running well. Bets 15:20 Beverley – Courageous; 2pts @ 7/1 Boylesports (bog)
Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +119.45pts in 50 days. FINISHED
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +70.21pts in 39 days Well done today Jay :ok Can I ask what the "
(+87.29pts with returned winning stakes)" means? Bit rushed for time so can't look through the entire thread but I don't quite get what you mean by "returned winning stakes"...